At a Bethlehem Mayoral debate between Dana Grubb and Willie Reynolds, Grubb vowed to support Willie if he emerged the victor. True to form, Dana will be supporting Willie in November But how many of his voters will follow. I can't envision any circumstances under which some of Dana's more ardent supporters would ever actually vote for Republican John Kachmar. But they might sit on their hands ion that race. If Kachmar peels away a sufficient number of Dana's voters, he wins. That's the math.
In Lehigh County, Willie Reynolds garnered 1,271 votes. Kachmar (664) and Grubb (779) combined beat Willie.
In Northampton County, Willie pulled in 2,692 votes compared to Kachmar (2,349) and Grubb (1,643). Combined, they beat Willie.
17 comments:
Maybe disappointed Grubb voters and hopeful Kachmar voters will unite if and when Reynolds’ alleged plans to cut close to a dozen Bethlehem police officer positions come to light. Hope you and others start asking some questions to see if the rumors are true.
Willie remains the favorite but Kachmar should be taken seriously. If John runs his campaign based on providing efficient honest government similar to how Hanover Township Northampton County has been governed for years, he will attract traditional Bethlehem Republicans, independents looking for good local government rather than progressive rhetoric, as well as some and perhaps many prior Dana voters. Voters who identify with Trump will not strongly flock to his support, but with the progressive positions Willie and most of the City Council candidates are emphasizing Trump followers will still vote for John, if they vote at all. If however Kachmar decides to emphasize MAGA like behavior and rhetoric in his campaign he will be crushed in November. Dana voters and Bethlehem independents may not feel highly positive about Willie, but I believe they will prefer him to a Trump clone. Many people currently vote for the lesser of evils rather than out of a feeling of strong support for any candidate. Achieving voter perception as a rational leader who will keep Bethlehem prosperous while seeking some new directions along with maintaining a continuing sense of history and tradition will be a big factor for both mayoral candidates in November. That perception is at least what many prior Dana voters and Bethlehem independents seem to be seeking. It will be interesting to watch how both Willie and John play this out.
Anon 7:59, Reynolds is a councilman, not yet mayor. Any plan to cut officers would come from the current Mayor, and Donchez has no plan to cut officers. That is a false rumor started by Kachmar supporters.
Kachmar would have to spend a lot of money to win, and even then it is a long shot.
The numbers are not as simple as you say. First, not every Grubb supporter will vote for Kachmar. Second, the general election always turns out more Democratic voters. Third, independents/non-affiliated tend to trend left in Bethlehem.
@ 7:59 Nice try to start a rumor by asking about a "rumor"
I hope John wins and cleans house starting with the husband/wife incompetent duo!
Kachmar can win if he runs a moderate conservative campaign and gets the R's to do Mail In Voting. Someone needs to save Bethlehem from the far left wing nuts.
Kachmar has a big hill to climb. He is going against the good old boy network. All the big builders will back Willie with money because they know he will give them anything they want. Donchez will back Willie as promised 4 years ago in their little deal. Ronca will be able to do anything he wants with 8th and Eaton if Willie wins. I just can't believe the people of Bethlehem are not smart enough to see what is going on. Why would Willie leave a good paying job for less money as Mayor. Maybe just Maybe he will have other sources of income to off set his income. HMMMMMMM.
Kachmar seems like a pragmatic, results-oriented Republican. Based on my interactions with him, he’s not interested in channeling Trump’s nonsense. He is interested in honest government and giving the citizens of Bethlehem a fair shake for their tax dollars. He’s got solid municipal and other local government experience, and Grubb supporters would be wise to give him a serious look. I hope he runs a strong campaign.
Seems like 10:17AM thinks that "rumor" might be out there as well. If true, of course, it would come to light only after Reynolds becomes Mayor, not now.
John can most definitely win. An inverse of the obvious the younger candidate (Go-Along-Willie) represents the same old thing--Higher Property Taxes. Reckless Spending. vs the older, candidate who represents change. Kachmar- Stop Raising taxes. Stop silly spending. Willie and his crew are Otto Ehrsam 1997 in which every year or every other year Dems/Reps raised property taxes. Enough is enough.. Kachmar is cunningham 1997. John needs to target 13, 14, 15-1, 15-2. 6, 7, 8, 9-3 with a Change vs. Same Old Way=Higher Taxes. And not be distracted. Democrats for Kachmar...it's time for a change.
Reynolds did vote to cut four fireman positions.
Is this the individual who had gotten an incredibly large pay raise during a world wide pandemic while many people lost jobs, vehicles, homes etc.? Oh and four fire fighter positions were ousted and also a storm water tax fee thing was put onto the citizens?
And with voting to pass along the budget he also voted for an individual to receive a substantial amount in a pay raise even as her husband is B.M.
You're all fooling yourselves if you think Kachmar has a chance. This is not the John Brown-John Callahan race. Willie actually campaigns door-to-door, and I doubt Kachmar will.
Kachmar should send an early mailer citing Tax Hike Willie's record of raising property taxes, raising salaries and exponential debt (Mayor Willie WILL RAISE YOUR PROPERTY TAXES). So when Willie comes a knockin' voters can greet Tax Hiker Willie with, as the kids like willie say these days: FACTS! Kachmar: The Experience for a New No Tax way...Democrats for Kachmar: it's time for a change.
I hear close to $8000.00 raise for the business administrator wife! How in the hell did this individual get this job? I believe Bernie did a piece on that subject a while back. Someone was more qualified and actually in the department already? Politics at its best. Would Willie look into this matter?
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