Is Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" A Good or Bad Thing?

President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill", designed to implement his domestic agenda, has made it through the House by a single vote. Whether it makes it through the Senate is another matter. It is highly doubtful that it will survive in its current form, especially since some Republican senators find it unacceptable in its current form for differing reasons. 

Locally, Congressman Ryan Mackenzie voted for the House version, saying it provides "commonsense solutions that people across the Lehigh Valley are counting on."

The house version includes (1) a $4 trillion tax cut which does include lower marginal income rates, an increase in the standard deduction, no taxes on tips and no taxes on social security; (2) Medicaid recipients without disabilities will have to work, which could reduce federal spending by $800 billion; (3) changes in Obamacare designed to make it more expensive, with reduced subsidies; (4) an end to most tax breaks, for clean energy, excepting nuclear energy; (5) An end to food stamps (SNAP) for people between 18 and 64 with no job, and a shifting to the states of some of the cost; (6) major increases in defense spending, including a Golden Dome similar to what Israel employs; (7) reductions in student loans; and (5) a $4 trillion increase in the national debt.

Mackenzie has two Democratic opponents in next year's Congressional race. Here's how they reacted.

Carol Obando-Derstine: "While working families slept, Ryan Mackenzie voted for Trump’s billionaire tax breaks and backed a bill that will rip healthcare from nearly 24,000 people in our district, threaten SNAP for 25,000 more, and keep driving up prices at our expense. It’s a cruel betrayal. While Mackenzie helps billionaires like Elon Musk and leaves our district behind, I’ve spent my career fighting for the families hit hardest by these cuts. I’m running for Congress to deliver real solutions and put working families first."

Lamont McClure: "In the dead of night, Ryan Mackenzie cast the deciding vote to stab working families in the back—supporting the largest Medicaid cuts in history. Ripping away healthcare from millions of Americans, all so his billionaire buddies get another tax break. It’s cowardly. It’s cruel. And I’m running for Congress to make damn sure he never gets to do it again."

MIBs Have Failed to Increase Turnout in Municipal Primaries

Some of you love to stand in line on election day, not just to vote, but to talk to your neighbors. I saw this quite a bit when I worked elections and agree it's a good chance to catch up with people you know and like. If you have a sweet tooth, it's even better because there are numerous bake sales. Sometimes, you get a chance to meet candidates or other elected officials who are supporting them. I hate standing in line. I'm pretty much a miserable bastard and the only people who smile at me are those who don't know me. I like the convenience of mail-in ballots (MIBs). I'm far from alone. In this year's municipal primary, 18,426 people voted by mail in NorCo. That's almost half of the total 40,342 votes cast. But has the MIB option really helped turnout? Has it made elections more inclusive?  If you look at this year's anemic turnout, I'd say no.

This year, we had contested primaries for Judge of the Court of Common Pleas, County Executive, Magisterial District Judge, Bethlehem Mayor, Bethlehem City Council and Easton City Council. Total turnout was an embarrassing 17.7%, even though these elected officials have much more of an impact on our daily lives than the President. You can't call Trump if your street has not been plowed. 

It was just as bad in the municipal primary four years ago. Turnout in that race was 20.87%, just slightly higher than on Tuesday. In the '23 municipal primary, it was just 19.23%.

I've seen the argument that MIBs increase voter turnout, and that may be true in Presidential and Congressional races. But in municipal races, it has failed to make a difference. 

I believe the main reason for this apathy is that most voters simply are unfamiliar with the candidates because local news media is pretty much a thing of the past. While there are noble ventures by public media, Victor Martinez' La Mega 101.7 FM (gives local news and insights to Spanish-speaking listeners) and sources like Armchair Lehigh Valley Molovinsky on Allentown or even me, but we reach far too few people. 

My uninformed opinion has always been that people who need to work two or three jobs have enough trouble putting food on the table than worry about who represents them. As a result, nobody does. 

What's your take? 

NorCo Election: Zrinski Trounces Cozze (and McClure Beats Wild in Proxy War)

Northampton County Controller Tara Zrinski has trounced Amy Cozze in the county's Democratic primary for County Executive. With 156 of 157 precincts reporting, Zrinski had 13,449 votes (56.78%) to 10,194 (43.04%) for Cozze in the unofficial count. Around 10:15 pm, a tearful Zrinski claimed victory. Cozze, who had planned a watch party in Easton, canceled out. Her campaign stated it would release a statement once the results were completely tallied.

It was a nasty race. Zrinski was branded as an opportunist who runs for every office available. But Cozze's actions as elections registrar hurt her bid. She tendered a resignation to take effect just 12 days before an election because she wanted more money, effectively putting her own interests in front of the county. She also unartfully referred the county's commitment to open space as "lazy policy" during a debate. 

This race was also something of a proxy war between outgoing Exec Lamont McClure and former Congress member Susan Wild. Wild, who lost her seat to Ryan Mackenzie last year, was apparently miffed that McClure decided to run without seeking her permission. So Wild embraced Cozze, funneled donations to her campaign and spent election day visiting the polls with Cozze. McClure not only funded Zrinski with $10,000 of his campaign treasury but made sure she had a lot of financial support from the trade unions. 

So while Zrinski convincingly beat Cozze at the polls, and by a higher margin than I expected, McClure demonstrated to Wild that her reach in Northampton County is quite limited. 

Despite the influx of 18,426 mail-in ballots, turnout was an anemic 17.7%. 

Zrinski will face Republican Tom Giovanni in November. 

In the judicial race, Jeremy Clark (12,132 votes - 52.69%) edged out Bob Eyer (10,851 votes - 47.13%) for the Democratic nomination. But James Fuller, a Monroe County prosecutor, won the Republican nod. This race will be decided in the general election. 

In the only contested magisterial contest, Rob Kemmerer won the Republican nomination with 67.21% of the GOP vote, while Ellen Kingsley captured the Democratic nod with 46.77% of the votes cast. That race will therefore be decided in November. 

In the NorCo Council races, the five candidates on the Dem Ballot and GOP ballot all won. The top Democratic vote getter was David Holland, a psychiatric nurse and former administrator at Gracedale. The top Republican was Sam Elias, a Bethlehem police officer. 

Patti Bruno had hoped to mount a successful Democratic write-in campaign, but the 1,000 or so write-ins cast are far below what would be needed to topple a Dem on the ballot. 

In Bethlehem, Mayor Willie Reynolds scored a near landslide (64.96%) against Grace Crampsie Smith in his bid for re-election.  It also appears that incumbents Rachel Leon and Hillary Kwiatek will keep their seats. They'll be joined by Justin Amann and Jo Daniels in the general. 

In Easton, incumbents fared more poorly. Roger Ruggles and Taiba Sultana have lost their seats to Frank Graziano and Susan Hartranft-Bittinger, respectively. 

Cozze Receives Late Contribution From Warehouse Developer

According to 24-hour reporting, NorCo Exec candidate Amy Cozze has added $1,000 to her coffers in the form of a donation from Jack Muschlitz. In addition to being an excavator, Muschlitz is planning two industrial warehouses in Moore Tp. 

Although Moore Tp's zoners rejected Muschlitz' appeal for relief from the zoning ordinance, the Commonwealth Court has ordered an evidentiary hearing. 

Cozze has also accepted $4,000 from the Pektor family, which has built numerous warehouses in the county. He also took in $1,000 from a luxury apartment developer. 

In a debate, Cozze scoffed that "conserving open space as a way to combat warehouse development is just lazy policy."

Feel Free to Make Your Last-Minute Pitches Here

If you'd like to make a last-minute argument for a candidate, please feel free to do so in the comments. I will periodically load them throughout the day. 

Please Share Tour Experience at the Polls

Every election day, several readers like to share their experiences at the polling place, and I enjoy reading them. Please feel free to share (1) where you voted; (2) what turnout was like; and (3) if you experienced any problems. 

Two years ago, when the Express Vote XL went haywire, it was you who first began noting it here. Hopefully, that issue has been put to rest. Some of you have witnessed officious or partisan elections workers inside the polling place. If that is so, please let us know. 

If you are voting in person in NorCo, be sure to check your voter verifiable paper ballot before officially casting your ballot. If you want to change your mind, you can spoil your ballot either two or three times (I forget the exact number) and try again.

UPDATED: Three Candidates Running for Wind Gap Magisterial Seat

Magisterial district judges, sometimes called the peoples' courts, are the frontline of our state's justice system. They handle the lion's share of cases, from neighborhood squabbles to landlord and tenant disputes to parking tickets. A magisterial district judge must be 21 and a state resident who has lived in the magisterial district for at least one year before assuming office. Terms last for six years, and nothing prevents other employment, though that is becoming less common. A minor court jurist can an attorney, but can be a nonlawyer as well, so long as he he can complete the training to be certified by the Administrative Office of Pa. Courts. Salary is $113,713 and is tied to the cost-of-living index, so it goes up each year. This year there is one open magisterial district in Northampton County, and three people are in the hunt. The three candidates running are Ellen Kingsley, an assistant District Attorney; Rob Kemmerer, former Director of Northampton County's Pretrial Services Department (he actually resigned that position to run); and Matt Flower, This district covers Bath, Chapman, Stockertown, Wind Gap, Bushkill Township, Moore Township - Phillips and Eastern Districts and Plainfield Township - Plainfield Church District. The purpose of this post is to describe the three candidates and where they are getting their money. 

Ellen Kingsley. - A 1999 graduate of Widener School of Law, she has primarily practiced family law. She is also an Assistant District Attorney, where she serves as Chief of the Domestic Violence Unit. District Attorney Steve Baratta told County Council last week, "If she is fortunate enough to win, it will be a big loss [to his office]." 

Here's her campaign as she summarizes it herself:

"In order to serve as Magisterial District Judge, you either need to be an attorney and member of the bar of the PA Supreme Court or be "certified" by the Minor Judiciary Education Board. To get certified candidates who aren't lawyers need to attend a 4-week course in Harrisburg. It is not required of attorneys since they have a law degree and, usually, experience. My three-year law degree, 26 years of experience in both civil and criminal law, including litigation in front of MDJs, and in ruling on and handling appeals from the Magisterial Districts make me the most qualified candidate."

Her nomination petition was challenged in court by Flower but he lost. Those two then engaged in an online battle in which neither looks particularly judicial. 

Her campaign finance records reveal that she is largely self-funded. Aside from a $2,500 contribution from Jake Olsson, an employee of ScrbeAmerica, most of the money in her $3,525 Pre-Primary Finance report and 24-hour reporting comes from herself. She appears to have spent $3,286.37 on her campaign. 

Matt Flower - On his campaign page, he states he holds a bachelor's degree in criminal justice and is currently employed by UPS, where he also serves as a Teamsters' union steward. He vows he would approach "each case with impartiality, integrity, and a focus on upholding the rights of all parties involved." On his campaign literature, he claims to have the "full endorsement" of the Republican party. He was endorsed by the county executive committee, not the entire party. Slate Belt Republicans tell me they make no endorsements in contested primaries. 

Flower has a checkered past  with a string of arrests in multiple counties going back to 2002. Everything from harassment to driving without a license. He's also been involved as Plaintiff or Defendant in numerous Protection from Abuse Act matters. He also admits to "peacefully demonstrating" at the capitol insurrection on January 6, when domestic terrorists or freedom-lovers (take your pick)  ransacked the halls of Congress. He denies participating in any violence. and claims he's been "cleared" by the FBI. "I am not afraid of arrest, prison or rogue judges," he adds.

During one 2014 incident in which he allegedly tackled and strangled

Flower in blue shade

his then wife, she was pregnant. A Facebook page, No Way to Matthew L Flower, contains what purports to be text exchanges between Flower and his then wife that are pretty disgusting. He did pay a price for them in court and even he acknowledges his statements were "inappropriate." 

A sample is on the left. 

A judge has to keep his cool. He didn't. 

As a constable candidate, he pledged to refuse to enforce PFA orders. 

More recently, he was caught up in a Republican county committee kerfuffle after members discovered that his current wife was posting videos of their sexual trysts online for profit. 

Campaign finance records show that he has received $3,125, including a $1.225 loan to himself. 

Rob Kemmerer. - A graduate of East Stroudsburg University, Kemmerer has worked as a NorCo probation officer and was Director of its Pretrial Services Division. He resigned to run for this open seat. His department is responsible for making bail recommendations to magisterial district judges when a defendant is preliminarily arraigned. He is highly regarded by both the bench and bar. A prominent criminal defense lawyer told me Friday that Kemmerer could be called day and night for help in setting bail. 

He's been endorsed by the Northampton County Republican Women’s Committee, former State Representative Marcia Hahn, and former Northampton County Council President Peg Ferraro.

Campaign finance records show that he chose to self-fund his campaign instead of forming a committee and seeking contributions. He has spent $11,800.04 for the usual campaign expenses, including a consult.  

UPDATED 5/19/25, 12:30 am Originally published 5/17/25, 6:08 pm

UPDATED: Something Stinks in Plainfield Tp

Jonathan Itterly was an appointed (not elected) Plainfield Tp. Supervisor whose term expires at the end of 2025. Now he's going to have to win an election. He's running for both a two-year and six-year term against fellow Republicans Jane Mellert and Ken Fairchild, who is yet another appointed Supervisor.  

Mellert has filed a PrePrimary report to acknowledge that she has spent $348.17. But neither Itterly nor Fairchild have filed anything. So what?, would be my first reaction. After all, Plainfield Tp is small enough that I would think most candidates would have no need to raise a lot of money. 

But Itterly has not one, but two electronic billboards advertising his candidacy. They are located near MacDonalds. He also has a large number of campaign signs. No disclaimers on the billboards.  

It is my understanding that a candidate who wants to advertise on that billboard must pay about $1,100.

So does Fairchild, although they might be left over from his last campaign. 

This is beginning to smell very much like the landfill, and for good reason. The landfill in Plainfield Township wants to expand, but to do so it will need to have some property rezoned. To make things easier, Township Supervisors have already disbanded their Environmental Advisory Commission. That way they can avoid some complaints They've also ignored their own Planning Commission, which has advised against rezoning. Instead, they voted in April to hire a third-party consultant - Strategic Solutions - to tell them what they and the landfill want to hear. 

The public has a right to know who is paying for Itterly's billboard and campaign signs. His refusal to follow the law evinces a lack of regard for the public he ostensibly wishes to serve. I suspect his true master is the landfill. 

The lack of a disclaimer is one thing, but it's clear that Itterly is breaking basic campaign law. The DA's office needs to review what has happened here. 

UPDATED 2 PM: This story requires a bit of an explanation and an apology.  I wrote it and posted without first discussing the matter with Itterly. That was wrong. I spoke with him today. He acknowledged he has filed no expense report because he does not really know what the expense is and will do so when he receives a bill. He followed advice from the elections office, so he acted in good faith and violated no law. 

Campaign finance law (25 PS 3246 (B) (5)) does require a report for all unpaid debts and obligations, and I believe it should have been reported with the amount left blank, as I see some candidates do. But I could be interpreting the law too strictly.

Itterly also tells me that his sign does include a disclaimer and that the EAC was disbanded due to lack of interest. Finally, he said that "putting garbage in the ground is the worst thing in the world." 

NorCo Exec Race Wrap Up

In the event you are a Democrat and trying to decide who deserves your vote in the Exec race, below are links to several previous stories about this race. Feel free to make your own observations. 

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Cozze Campaign Complains Zrinski Not Gay Enough

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Amy Cozze's Claim that NorCo Left Federal $ On the Table is False

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: How NorCo Exec Candidate Amy Cozze Blackmailed the County She Wants to Lead

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Amy Cozze Attempts to Justify Blackmailing the County She Wants to Lead

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Cozze and Zrinski Trade Blows in Fiery NorCo Exec Debate

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Keegan Did Zrinski No Favor in NorCo Exec Race

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Keegan Did Zrinski No Favor in NorCo Exec Race - Part II

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Following the Money: Who is Backing the NorCo Exec Candidates?

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: The Most Effective Argument I've Heard For Zrinski as NorCo Exec

Lehigh Valley Ramblings: Following the Money: Last Minute $ Pours into NorCo Exec Race