For the November 2 election, 28,633 registered voters have requested mail-in ballots (MIBs) in NorCo. As of mid-afternoon on Thursday, 19,040 of these MIBs have been returned. That's about 65%, and it's safe to say that about 70% will be returned by Election Day. That translates into about 20,000 votes.
These returned ballots so far are predominantly from Democrats. There are 13,588 Democratic ballots, with 3,730 Republicans and 3,129 "others." If the tally of these ballots is the same as in the Presidential, that means 72% of the 20,000 MIBs will go to Lamont McClure in the Exec race. That's 14,400 votes.
As of October 25, there are 219,447 registered voters in Northampton County. Turnout in the 2017 municipal race was 23%. If turnout is the same this year, that means there will be 50,472 voters total. That translates to 30,000 electors at the polls on November 2.
I expect thereto be an undervote in the Exec race from Republicans and others who recognize that Steve Lynch is a fringe candidate but are nonetheless unwilling to vote for McClure. In 2017, about 4,000 of 45,000 voters (9%) cast no ballot in the Exec race. This year, I expect the undervote in the Exec race to be about 4,500. This means that the winning Exec candidate needs 22,751 votes.
The 30,000 voters who do so in person are predominately Republican, McClure wins if he can capture 8,351 of these in-person votes.
A contested Bethlehem Mayoral race will help McClure.
The contested school board races, which will bring out voters who usually only vote in Presidential races, will hurt McClure.
It appears highly likely at this point that McClure will score a victory. He never took his opponent lightly, defined him early and hammered away. I also suspect that Lynch's looniness will have a trickle down impact on Republican Council candidates who lacked the intestinal fortitude to distance themselves from his undemocratic views.