For the November 2 election, 28,633 registered voters have requested mail-in ballots (MIBs) in NorCo. As of mid-afternoon on Thursday, 19,040 of these MIBs have been returned. That's about 65%, and it's safe to say that about 70% will be returned by Election Day. That translates into about 20,000 votes.
These returned ballots so far are predominantly from Democrats. There are 13,588 Democratic ballots, with 3,730 Republicans and 3,129 "others." If the tally of these ballots is the same as in the Presidential, that means 72% of the 20,000 MIBs will go to Lamont McClure in the Exec race. That's 14,400 votes.
As of October 25, there are 219,447 registered voters in Northampton County. Turnout in the 2017 municipal race was 23%. If turnout is the same this year, that means there will be 50,472 voters total. That translates to 30,000 electors at the polls on November 2.
I expect thereto be an undervote in the Exec race from Republicans and others who recognize that Steve Lynch is a fringe candidate but are nonetheless unwilling to vote for McClure. In 2017, about 4,000 of 45,000 voters (9%) cast no ballot in the Exec race. This year, I expect the undervote in the Exec race to be about 4,500. This means that the winning Exec candidate needs 22,751 votes.
The 30,000 voters who do so in person are predominately Republican, McClure wins if he can capture 8,351 of these in-person votes.
A contested Bethlehem Mayoral race will help McClure.
The contested school board races, which will bring out voters who usually only vote in Presidential races, will hurt McClure.
It appears highly likely at this point that McClure will score a victory. He never took his opponent lightly, defined him early and hammered away. I also suspect that Lynch's looniness will have a trickle down impact on Republican Council candidates who lacked the intestinal fortitude to distance themselves from his undemocratic views.
26 comments:
HAVE EITHER lynch or any of his council team attended any of the county budget meetings. I would hope they at least have shown some interest in what the county government actually does. They appear to think they are running for seats in Congress for the second coming of Leader Trump..
Virginia incumbent suddenly looks to be down 8 pts in what was becoming a solid blue state. There's a wave developing across the country. Ds tilting at caricatures, as in NorCo, may be whistling past the political graveyard. Each party has it nuts, to be sure. But don't think for a second that reasonable people who tack toward the center are not really pissed off.
lynch crying rigged yet?
@9:17
I find it amusing that this is everyone’s sentiment, because we all know he’s going to blame it on fraud if he doesn’t win.
He’s hilariously predictable.
@6:47 Bidens PA approval rating is at 32% (F&M). I do think his low approval rating will help some republicans, but here in Northampton County you have an Exec candidate that's a lunatic which is going to hurt down ballot R's. There are several extremist council members who are probably going to get reelected because of Lynch being the republican nominee. Yes, I am talking about Zrinski and Vargas. They would have been very beatable with a good candidate at the top of the ticket. You can actually see Zrinski trying to reinvent herself. Don't be fooled she's an extreme left wing nut job.
Please write in Mike Hudak in Bethlehem Township.
At-large Council races are very much impacted by the national mood. Four years ago, Democrats were energized. This time around, the pendulum has swung back in favor of Rs. You see it in the Va. Governor's race and you see t here. Rising inflation, the poorly planned Afghan withdrawal and failure to reach an infrastructure deal from within Biden's own party, have turned people off.
Zrinski is going to be re-elected. She has a string base of support among women, environmentalists and progressive groups. She is too far to the left for most NorCo Dems, but has a strong base. I voted for her only because she is very responsive to constituents, even those who are far more conservative than she. Plus, I think she has learned that her role as a legislator requires her to focus on solutions to county problems. Lord knows we have enough of them. I agree that when she injected herself into the Allentown Police incident and reached the wrong conclusions based on a 20 second video, she ws irresponsible.
Vargo-Heffner can be snarky. I have pointed it out several times. She is also the hardest working member of Council. And unlike Zrinski, She has been focused on county issues. I thought she was in trouble, but it appears that she shares Zrinski's base if support.
If I could only cast one vote, it would be for Heckman. He is one of a handful of people who understands how the county works and will be a check on Executive over-reach.
The R Council candidates will be hurt by Lynch and their refusal to distance themselves from him. They will be hurt by their own lack of transparency in refusing to answer questions, not just from me, but the Bethlehem Press as well. (Goffredo did respond to the newspaper, but was the only one). They will also be hurt by the Bethlehem turnout and the fact that, like it or not, McClure has done a lot.
They will be helped by the turnout of anti-maskers in several school board races from people who otherwise would not be voting. They will also be helped by the national mood.
My guess is that Dems are going to lose two seats
HOPEFULLY MORE THAN 2 SEATS
I don't think most voters are aware of Lynch and his nuttiness unless they go looking. All they're getting is a constant barrage of negative crap from a well funded incumbent who doesn't know how to spend all his dough fast enough. This blog plays to the cool kids club. Beware of smelling each other's exhaust. Incumbent guy overflowing with hubris and cash running a very nasty campaign is the message being delivered loudly and clearly to the great unwashed.
That constant barrage, this blog and TV ads are making certain voters are aware about Kynch. He’s more than nutty. He’s dangerous
Bernie, Lynch is not dangerous, it’s pure theatrics.
He’s posturing for his inept fan base. He’s a punk that hid behind his wife when the same shit he was throwing at McClure came back around and hit him in the face.
Just like Trump Bernie would you like to compare Biden to Trump policy wise--I think you smart enough not even to try.
Sadly both party has extremists. That is what has given us extreme candidates like Lynch and Zirinski. They are ell about themselves and pushing a national agenda of the extreme of both parties. Not good locally..
No thanks,he needs to go. The worst supervisor in Bethlehem Township.
The reason Zirinski and Hefner did well in the primary is because democrat women only voted for women. I know it doesn't make much senses in a non-contested primary but that is it. Hopefully for the democrat majority they don't just do gender politics in the general.
Dangerous is culling our elderly at Gracedale, as was done with no excuses or apologies. Let's regain some perspective here. Gracedale happened.
So just to be clear, as a county employee who refuses to vote for McClure and has no desire to vote for Lynch. A non vote is a vote for McClure?
When you refer to the tragic deaths at Gracedale as a culling, you betray your own lack of empathy for fellow human beings. In fact, and as I've pointed out numerous times, McClure did everything he could to save lives and actually succeeded. This includes calling in the National Guard,. I recall you criticizing him for doing that, too. This is a guy who led the fight to save Gracedale and referred to it as a moral obligation. I know bc I was at the spearhead of the sell Gracedale faction at the time.
Had antimasker and antivaxer Lynch been Exec at the time, the census would be zero. There would be no staffing problem bc no one would be there. He repeatedly has downplayed the pandemic, including in a speech to the LV Tea Party. Yes, he really is objectively dangerous.
"HAVE EITHER lynch or any of his council team attended any of the county budget meetings. "
Now I can be hard on people, but would never condemn them to a budget hearing. I am against torture.
A non-vote simply removes you from the pool of voters making a choice in the Exec race. While I think that helps McClure, it could hurt him. That depends on turnout among Rs who will vote straight ticket as well as the turnout from antimask voters who ordinarily would not be voting in a municipal race. You may detest McClure for whatever reason, but the other guy is an honest-to-goodness danger to anyone who believes in democracy. Moreover, he has nno clue how county government works. He wants to return to government by consultant, and we've all seen how that worked under Brown. There will be a de facto hiring freeze and a cut in benefits while Lynch takes care of idiots like Cubbage. If you want to see ASmy Trapp and her popcorn machine again, vote for Lynch.
As a county worker, let us remember when the union had no contract under Brown (republican), we’re called whining crybabies by family of Brown’s administration, and our benefits were cut. People seem to forget that because they’re angry at what??? Can’t work remotely? Most jobs aren’t allowing it. Oh and we couldn’t work remotely under a republican either. Blows my mind what people base their vote on. A vote for a man who hasn’t even said what he’s going to do for the county workforce. Why is that? Because he has no clue how county government works.
@2:59 You are right Lynch is not dangerous..... in a way.
He is a coward , a blow hard, and a bully who relies on failures in life that have nothing better then to do but to look up to him and then take the fall for his crap.
I have met him numerous times and watched his interactions.
I bet if he mouthed off in front of someone declaring threatening activities like he has done in the past and that person challenged him directly, and reactively with immediate violence in kind he would cry and whine and hide and declare that the other person was in the wrong. And would threaten the other person with criminal and legal actions.
Just like any wanna be piece of shit bully would do that no one has called out for his pathetic way of life.
Lynch is nutz and Brown and his council team are incompetent. Brown when executive raised taxes, tired to build a prion next to Gracedale Nursing Home and started an underfunded and corner cutting bridge program that built one bridge and spent millions. Her is a jobless incompetent.
do you really want his team running the county again???
@2:59 sounds like you are describing another sniveling political figure who couldn't hack real life if he had to and has to threaten, menace, intimidate and bully those who do not bow to his whim. And if they do step out of line he chases them with every pathetic legal option he can dream. And the only reason other then his beguiling bullshit and the stupidity of his followers is that he has money (which he never earned but mommy and daddy gave him) they can skim from him. Yup the failure that just lied that he got invited to the World series when he had a minion call and ask but couldn't admit he had to ask and that he was not the pinnacle he thinks he is.
YES TRUMP!!!!!!
Are we allowed to write in Ron Angle for County Executive?
Hard to believe some commenters are still bedeviled by President Trump. Look, your choice made it to the White House, now enjoy!
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