Steve Thode, the retired Director of Real Estate Studies at Lehigh University, has been crunching the daily numbers from the Covid-19 crisis. Based on his analysis, and assuming that Governor Tom Wolf insists on following his own formula, he has previously predicted we will be locked down until sometime in July. (July 5-17)
Based on case data as of May 17, Thode's "weighted" forecast predicts Lehigh/Northampton counties will go to "Yellow" on July 16; his "unweighted" forecast predicts July 21. Lehigh and Northampton counties' declines in daily new cases has been slower than the rest of The Northeast.
61 comments:
Small business in the Lehigh valley will exist anymore if this occurs.
My families small business was quietly opened last week.
In states like Florida, Texas, and Georgia, who opened earlier than every model recommended, the number of cases has not spiked nearly enough to stress local ability to manage them. In other states, despite existing lockdown orders, thousands and thousands of residents are ignoring the whole thing and going about their lives.
Have to continue to stress the case/death numbers have been incorrect from the very start. They were, and continue to be inflated by using anything ‘presumed’ to have a connection to the virus.
Colorado just finished a close examination of it’s death total. After removing weak, presumed notations, the numbers in that state dropped about 30 %.
Finally, what Pennsylvania Wizard establishes the number ‘50’ in the first place?
The longer this drags out, the greater your taxes and fees will be for the rest of your lives. We’re talking thousands of dollars above typical inflationary increases. Doesn’t matter if Democrat or Republican. Young or old. Funds to rebuild the economy can only come from you, the taxpayer. Our pockets will be picked for years to come. It’s already happening.
Everything will magically go back to normal on Nov. 5, 2020 and the virus
will disappear thereafter.
People have been quietly going back to work and have been working under the table for weeks now.
With no unemployment coming in, people have to eat, kids have to eat.
Anybody who begrudges a man for trying to take care of his family and feed his kids during this time is a real grade a asshole.
States that have reopened haven't seen a spike in cases. If masks work, why are we still under house arrest? If masks don't work, why are we wearing them? If Doc Levine's mommy was capable of making her own health decisions before skedaddling from her nursing home death camp, why aren't the rest of us who managed to raise kids who don't wear dresses? None of this is about health and safety. It's about political correctness, from being forced to say Levine is normal, to believing there's a boogeyman that will eventually escape nursing homes and kill us all. Remember: only 98.5% survive this apocalypse.
Everything should just open. Forget the pediatrician and her bogus advise
When someone is a strict ideologist, 6:21, they have tunnel vision. They can only see a few days ahead. They must win today’s or tomorrow’s argument to advance their cause. Any ‘bigger picture’ is a problem for someone else, not them. As you know, it just doesn’t work that way.. There is no ‘someone else.’
Shocking to me how compliant our society has become. Wake-up, people. Many of you have children, some are young adults with their own kids. They deserve a better future than a world of less freedom and liberty. Of ever increasing taxes and price increases destroying the ability to purchase food, shelter, and leisure activities.
House arrest has already cost hundreds of PA lives, as people perish from failure to get cancer screenings and follow through with chemo, radiation, and other life saving therapies. A tragic explosion in suicides is coming and increasing numbers of vulnerable will begin to starve as the economic devastation batters the population that doesn't have the security of a government job. Wolf killed thousand to save hundreds. That's progressive math, where the numbers make no sense, people are routinely raised from the dead, and the mathlete delivering the numbers can't pronounce exponential. Wolf has managed this as well as he manages state highways - the single worst in the country.
Well, we have people representing us in Harrisburg, Republicans and Democrats. How hard is the representative of your district working to stop this? For me, they are all doing poorly or failing. Not planning to vote for any of them.
This so-called "lock down" will go down in history as an abject failure- killing more people than it saved. The media has done its job of sensationalism- never in my life, have I seen 24/7 coverage that instills panic! I have a friend who has ALS, and the clinics have been closed for 2 months now, so they can deal w/ covid-19. I have another friend w/ colon cancer- and he has been denied his much needed surgery since it was classified as "elective." Both are going downhill- and fast! Wolf and his sidekick Levine, are totally incompetent! In NY, 66% of the Covid-19 patients are from homes that were locked down- a perfect atmosphere for a virus to spread. Positive patients are ordered back to nursing homes, while Rachael Levine moves her/his mother out. You can't make this stuff up! Then Wolf calls the people who want to go back to work in order to feed their families, "cowards?" Our society has practiced the social distancing, but it is now coming to the point where we're being herded around like sheep! Its time to open up- responsibly! If not, there will be no economy, and it will take decades to recover!
With a capital 'A'
Agreed! Great comment!
I love how the rules don't apply when it suits your purpose. The rest of the world can't go for a jog or wear hoodies lest a white guy get concerned, but you're told to stay in your home unless necessary and take reasonable precautions when you venture out and this is such an egregious assault to your civil liberties that you're practically rioting in the streets? Give me a break.
I'm an essential worker and you don't have the right to risk my life, my family members lives, or the rest of the public.
We should be able to not pay taxes for those days of the lockdown. We are not getting our moneys worth from the government. Also apply to property taxes and school taxes. If someone you paid for services did not deliver the service the government would be the first demand restitution.
I think it might actually be worse the Dr. Thode's analysis, but I confess I'm not sure what the seemingly random and ever-changing criteria for going to yellow are now. Originally, LC and NC were lumped together with a bunch of other counties, but I guess somehow Carbon was allowed to escape the double secret probation rules.
Counties like Pike and Monroe are only experiencing a few new cases a day, but their populations are so low they'll raise the "region's" average. If they continue to be lumped in the same "region" as the Lehigh Valley, we may not meet the targets until August.
Thank you Gov Cuomo and your sidekick Mayor De Blowhard for allowing NYC to become ground zero for the pandemic, and the citizens of NYC for infecting our valley.
Who is the oxy moron that came up with the term social distancing anyway?
8:32 AM
"I love how the rules don't apply when it suits your purpose."
It appears not strictly enforcing the law is becoming a "thing."
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/857144397/police-back-off-from-social-distancing-enforcement
Something for proponents of strict enforcement to ponder:
"Advocacy groups have complained that the NYPD's social distancing enforcement has been unfair and even racist, because about ninety percent of the people arrested in encounters related to social distancing enforcement have been black or Hispanic. "
The World according to NPR...African-Americans and Hispanics hardest hit. Who'd have known?
"I love how the rules don't apply when it suits your purpose. The rest of the world can't go for a jog or wear hoodies lest a white guy get concerned, but you're told to stay in your home unless necessary and take reasonable precautions when you venture out and this is such an egregious assault to your civil liberties that you're practically rioting in the streets? Give me a break."
There were no comments suggesting there is no need to social distance or wear a mask or wash hands. The comments preceding yours concerned businesses that are unable to operate or that have to do so quietly.
The Governor’s press conferences are so infuriating. He starts with the token mask removal showing us how good he follows his own order But of course won’t show the waiver information. Then he blames the virus for everything including the current set of rules. The virus did not select the required conditions for red-yellow-green. This is his decision. And when asked about conditions to go green, the answer is - we’re still looking at that. That is insane! How can they not have these decisions made at this point! With counties in yellow, that planning should have been done at least 3 weeks ago. What a terrible example of leadership!
Anon 7:57 said:
"Well, we have people representing us in Harrisburg, Republicans and Democrats. How hard is the representative of your district working to stop this? For me, they are all doing poorly or failing. Not planning to vote for any of them."
That's great, but if everyone followed your plan the party that's continuing the PA lockdown (the democrats) would take control of both the PA House and PA Senate. Wolf's a democrat, and that's a reward for his actions, not a punishment. So I'll pass on your plan.
Incidentally, I know my representative (Democrat Peter Schweyer) is working for us. Last week he put his time to good use by taking President Trump to task for Trump showing up (in person) in the Valley for what Schweyer called a "photo-op".
Where was Schweyer when he did this? In his office on an anti-Trump Zoom call with members of the PA democrat leadership.
Now that really IS a lesson in leadership, and shows me EXACTLY how I should vote this Fall.
One more example of the stupidity of Wolf's order:
Over the weekend I happened to visit a WalMart, Home Depot, and a larger local garden center. All were packed to the gills with people since they were among the few that are allowed to be open.
If we truly want people to be socially distant, wouldn't it make more sense to have MORE places open, so that customers would be dispersed among more retailers?
Instead, Wolf is forcing large numbers of people into small spaces. If Wolf and his health director believe the virus is truly contagious, that makes no sense.
Either open them all, or close them all and make people stay at home.
Instead, Wolf is killing the PA economy and creating conditions for the virus to spread more rapidly.
Add-on to my comment in 9:17 AM,
Some seem to be rubbing their hands in glee about the guy who was arrested in Hawaii.
Another person of color.
What is it with these "strict-enforcement" guys?
Once Yellow, Wolf has announced no criteria to get to Green.
RiteAid in Hellertown is providing free antibody testing. I have an appointment this Wednesday to get tested. Will the results make a personal difference? No. Will they help give an accurate picture of exposure to the virus in the Lehigh Valley? I hope so. Good decisions are based on scientific evidence as well as economics.
9:45- This unnecessary, prolonged crisis, in my view, transcends politics and how someone is registered to vote. Yes, it’s probable Democrats will get most of the blame for this mess. They should. But, at a time like this, we can’t tolerate slugs in the Republican Party either.
What we have to rid ourselves of are the ‘my career first’ people in government. There are plenty of those to go around. My message is “Get the Hell out.” All a regular citizen can do is vote for a new face. I personally don’t give a damn if it’s another Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian, whatever.
When you get the impression your incumbent isn’t working hard enough for you, you try and get someone else to take their place. I’m not a rigid ‘Party Loyalist.’ I’ve been registered, even active with campaigns, for both major parties. Now, I’m registered Independent. I vote for the person, their performance, the results. Regardless of the letter after their name.
July's not so bad. Like a good bridge or road project, however, it'll run longer and cost more. This is a government response, after all.
While we continue lockdown to save a few 80 yr olds with multiple comorbidity, a few thoughts to consider what we're losing in the meantime and the workers who have lost or will soon lose their jobs...
Airline industry...pilots, ground/air/maintenance/food service crews, all airport personnel(TSA, shops, agents), parking companies, limo/bus/cab/train services, all devastated.
Restaurant industry...waitstaff, kitchen workers, suppliers, musicians, owners, landlords, less capacity for social distancing requirements...major contraction.
Sports industry...Iron pigs for example, all employees, local charities and economic addition, concessions.
Arts...Symphony anyone? festivals, gig musicians, any worker associated with music venues at PPL, Wind Creek, Penns Peak, possiby Musikfest.
Commercial and Residential real estate...both completely frozen with likely many foreclosures. Second properties particularly in the VRBO/Airbnb world will bring financial ruin to some.
Manufacturing...all but a few sectors will have significant contraction
Local Retail...less money, less consumer confidence, fear, consumers now comfortable shopping online...not a good mix
Churches and CHarities...diminished parishioners and discretionary income hurts both severely.
Movie Theaters...done. Especially Dinner Movie Theaters.
Public employees...Tax base diminished=Less public employees
Thats top of my head, I'm sure theres lots more.
With Wolfs attitude on reopening, I believe that upwards of 20% of the Unemployed in PA will still be unemployed in October. Each passing day makes recovery harder.
It's called theft of services! This is exactly what many are complaining about.
Anonymous said...
While we continue lockdown to save a few 80 yr olds with multiple comorbidity, a few thoughts to consider what we're losing in the meantime and the workers who have lost or will soon lose their jobs...
May 18, 2020 at 12:13 PM
We see you for what you are. Clearly you plan to survive.
12:30
I forgot to mention university faculty...This whole on line cirriculum experiment is going to start a process in public and private colleges going under. Sheepskin effect will be diminshed in the new post covid world.
"We see you for what you are. Clearly you plan to survive."
98.5% survive. Outside of nursing homes and/or with no comorbidities, survival "chances" are 99.99%. Reopening doesn't mean abandoning the vulnerable. In fact, it will free up resources to care for them.
I go back to the one of the first deaths in the Lehigh Valley -- a man who was hospitalized due to a fall, but his death was attributed to Covid-19. That, for me, was when I became skeptical about the numbers being reported. There is NO DOUBT that this is a serious disease, but I am not trusting the numbers being floated because there are just way too many variables.
I don't trust your "numbers" either. So there.
1:19 ALL deaths are "deaths with COVID"(not from)regardless of the cause. Another interesting piece of data on health.pa.org is under the "Case Counts by Region to Date" the state lists COVID "positives", "negatives" and "inconclusive". However, all of the "inconclusive" are listed in the total tally as positives. The way the state presents the data is to justify(in their world) keeping us closed, not to reopen.
I'm a crazy left wing Democratic nutjob and even I think that we need to start to open up. Of course we need to be careful keep wearing masks etc. Small businesses can't possibly survive much longer like this. At some point the cure becomes worse than the disease & think we are fast approaching that.
When more tests are given, the number of new cases DOES go up ! Duh.
But, the majority of persons showing one of the markers for COVID-19 can be successfully treated by sending the individual home for rest and over the counter medications. Similar, but not the same, as any other flu virus. If conditions do not improve, we have plenty of hospital bed space and specialty equipment, and far more tools in our knowledge base since March.
Get that out of your head. It's all a political game.
And a capital W O L F.
11:37 - There are good legislators out there that have been working to get the state open. All are Republicans, although I admit not all republicans are working to open.
You're solution would hand power over to the democrats, who are in lock-step with Wolf, save for a relatively meaningless "letter" from Boscola. I'm willing to see if Boscola follows that up with real action, or if any other democrats break ranks with Wolf in a meaningful way.
But there is NO WAY it makes sense to throw all incumbents out. In fact, doing so would make current legislators LESS responsive, since you'd throw them out no matter what they do.
Legislators should be evaluated by their votes and not their time in service. Obviously some issues matter more than others, and the democrats are currently failing us in a big way.
If you want to see a real change in responsiveness from all legislators (current and future, regardless of party), make the democrats pay for what they're doing. Otherwise, there is no rational lesson for the legislators to learn.
Term limits are needed big time - I realize it will never happen but terrm lim its would help our hopeless situation with the political class
3:40 you are so correct.
70 percent of pa deaths are in old age homes 30 percent not in homes but 70 percent of these deaths are people over 65---95 percent of all the people who died had other problems= the 30 percent where between 30 and 95 percent had other issues.---we shut down the whole country for the situation I just described---how sad.
Too many stupid people running around spreading the virus without masks.
The brain trust in here is an example,of why we will be shut down til mid July
John at 11:15AM said...
RiteAid in Hellertown is providing free antibody testing. I have an appointment this Wednesday to get tested. Will the results make a personal difference? No. Will they help give an accurate picture of exposure to the virus in the Lehigh Valley? I hope so. Good decisions are based on scientific evidence as well as economics.
That's a great personal decision, but is another illustration of the skewed statistics being used. If John happens to have a positive antibody test, it will mean that he had a case of COVID 19 sometime during the last two months or so and is now likely immune from the disease. Good news, and another step towards herd immunity and a step towards recognizing the COVID-19 mortality rates aren't as high as thought, right? Nope, not in PA - per Dr. Rachel's statement at a news conference last week, this test will be counted as a CURRENT positive test and will count against a region/county for reopening. In the same way that previous deaths are being reclassified and are driving "current" death rates, these antibody tests will be used to pad "current" case numbers and justify continuing lockdowns.
With stats being skewed like this, I figure we might be open by 2021.
Ok so this afternoon the United States Heath Secretary stated that there has been no increase in Covid cases in states that have opened just the opposite a decline.
But a increase in cases in states that remain closed.
Chew on that for a bit.
8.48
" these antibody tests will be used to pad "current" case numbers and justify continuing lockdowns."
And to what end?
The doctor gets to rub her hands and laugh maniacally?
Usually folks do thing for a reason.
FREE MAYOR ED!
He was only in it for the power.... and the occasional Eagles tickets and trips to Key West.
Hypocrisy to gag a horse.
8.48 said....
" these antibody tests will be used to pad "current" case numbers and justify continuing lockdowns."
9.31 said...
And to what end?
The doctor gets to rub her hands and laugh maniacally?
Usually folks do thing for a reason.
Perhaps she's auditioning to be Biden's running mate. Checks off many of the "identity politics" boxes.
Or a woman working
Doing great! Susan Wild is on top of every aspect of this if you have attended any virtual meetings??
anon 9:31,,,
In the absence of any logic to the decision, you can choose your reasoning from the following:
1) Honest incompetence. Given that this decision is totally illogical, there's the possibility that Wolf and Levine, as well as others in charge, are idiots. Think about this - for now, a positive antibody test means the illness happened in the last two months or so. By the end of Summer, it will measure illness in the last half year - the logic for it being counted as a positive current test will only become weaker over time. Again, any scientist would agree that every positive antibody test in the absence of a true current infection makes the community safer, not more dangerous.
2) To keep the "ignorant" masses in line and keep them from fighting what's being done in their "best interest" by those manipulating the statistics. In this situation, Wolf and Levine believe what they are doing is right and thus "the end justifies the means", Wolfe's popularity had been polling very well before the last couple weeks, largely due this type of manipulation of information.
3) To score political points and delay the recovery, thus impacting the election in November by blaming a Republican President for the pandemic and the economic collapse. I personally am not this cynical, but it's a possibility in today's hyper-partisan political climate where everything is done for political points.
Anon 11:11 said:
In the absence of any logic to the decision, you can choose your reasoning from the following:
1) Honest incompetence. Given that this decision is totally illogical, there's the possibility that Wolf and Levine, as well as others in charge, are idiots. I take that as a given. Demonstrably true.
2) To keep the "ignorant" masses in line and keep them from fighting what's being done in their "best interest" by those manipulating the statistics. Always a motive of tyrants. Always.
3) To score political points and delay the recovery, thus impacting the election in November by blaming a Republican President for the pandemic and the economic collapse. Make sure your tyrannical behavior increases the power of like-minded tyrants who will make it more difficult for the unwashed masses to hold you accountable.
All three are present here in The Peoples' Republic of Pennsylvania. I would add a fourth:
4) A lazy, compliant press incapable of critical thinking.
Working to feed a family or save a small business is essential to many. It can be done safely, with reasonable precautions, as you say. And don't be a racist, Miss "essential".
Yes, and locking people down with each other in their tiny apartments in NYC was the surest way to spread the virus... After first telling everyone to go out and party as late as mid March just to virtue signal.
Just watched actual police video from helicopters and officer cams. This was Deland, Florida where thousands of young people conducted a ‘block party’ surrounding a closed city-owned park. Police arrived in vehicles to move people along, like herding cattle by slowly driving through the streets and shouting commands.
Soon, all Hell broke loose as a party goer displays a firearm and was taken to the ground by police. Onlookers threw bottles, hitting several police. Some in the crowd pushed and punched police officers until the resistors were also taken down and cuffed.
All this in a state (Florida) that has far less restrictions than we have in Pennsylvania!
Just a matter of time until unruly mobs make their own ‘statements’ right here in Eastern Pennsylvania. People need to be given hope. If they are given back some freedoms, you can’t just take it away. Not everyone is as disciplined as we claim to be.
Wearing masks all the time for something that kills such a microscopic percentage of people outside nursing homes is like carrying a gun all the time for protection. And - one is more likely to be shot dead, than die from contracting CoViD-19.
What is do nothing rep Steve Samuelson doing to help get the Lehigh Valley open? How is he & Boscola voting when Republicans propose reopening? Yellow is useless as Restaurants need to be included like every other state.
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