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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Covid-19: Nursing Homes are the 800 Lbs Gorilla in the Room

"The butcher, the baker,
The candlestick maker.
Turn them out, knaves all three"

That's essentially what has happened with Governor Tom Wolf's March 19 Executive Order closing all non-life-sustaining businesses. All business is life-sustaining, especially to those in it. Small entrepreneurs and gig workers are still unable to file claims for unemployment, even though the CARES Act specifically provides for it. Telephone calls are useless because the lines are jammed. "Turn them out knaves, all three" is how the Governor has responded to the plight of small business, the backbone of this country. Those who think businesses can be opened with precautions like social distancing and face masks are derided as "virus deniers" or worse, as the myrmidons of Donald Trump. They are called selfish and accused of having blood on their hands. When Wolf finally sounds "all clear," many of these business will be unable to open again. They are victims, not of contagious disease, but an overzealous Big Brother that even wants you to rat out businesses that fail to adhere to state edicts. Where are the deaths that are actually being caused by the Covid-19 pandemic? They are not coming from those who are outdoors. They are not coming from essential businesses on the front lines. They are coming from nursing homes.

Last week, the Department of Health (DOH) announced that over 65% of the Covid-19 deaths have occurred in nursing homes. According to Northampton County's Covid-19 dashboard, 55 of the County's 107 deaths have been at nursing homes. Between residents and staff, they account for nearly a third of all cases countywide. Amazingly, that's where the Department of Health (DOH) has really failed. Using the powers she actually has under the Disease Act, Secretary Rachel Levine could easily quarantine those who've been infected, and isolate residents who have come into contact with them. This would be a rational response.

Instead, Secretary Levine ordered nursing homes to continue accepting new residents, including those just released from the hospital for Covid-19. As Attorney Marc Scaringi observes in his argument to the Supreme Court,
This decision by the Secretary of Health may have proved deadly to many nursing home residents because the virus spread like wildfire in Pennsylvania’s nursing homes. The American Health Care Association said at the time that that directive put “frail and older adults who reside in nursing homes at risk” and would “result in more people going to the hospital and more deaths.”
Unfortunately, that's exactly what has happened. Moreover, Scaringi notes that the state DOH has actually suspended its usual inspections.

Since the beginning of this pandemic, we've known this respiratory virus is most virulent to the elderly. Instead of dealing with that very real public health concern, Governor Tom Wolf and Secretary Levine have put 1.7 million healthy employed Pennsylvanians on the sidelines, to say nothing of those who are self-employed in small business.

Government at its best.

In his appeal to the Supreme Court, Scaringi has attached affidavits from several small business owners adversely impacted by the Levine Lockdown:

- Stephen Cassel is the co-owner of Iacobucci Formal Wear, located in Havertown. His business sells and rents formal wear. He is the father of five children and has no income other than this business. He has yet to see a dime from the state or federal government. He has lost at least $200,000 and his insurance claim for business interruption has been denied. He is behind in rent and is unsure he can survive much longer.

- Nichole Mesino owns and operates a barber shop in Media, with seven barbers. None has worked since March 16. None has received a dime from the government. She has no income other than this business, and is behind on rent. "Another month of the governor's shutdown and I'll be done; I'll lose my business." She considered re-opening with elaborate precautions, but was told her license would be revoked.

- John Williams, a Delaware County realtor, states that the Spring selling season is when he earns most of his money for the year. He adds that prospective home buyers are unwilling to purchase a home unless they can physically inspect a property. He is one of 12,000 real estate agents idled in the Delaware Valley. He did get a $1,000 grant from the Small Business Administration, but nothing from the state.

- Karen Myers is a dance and gymnastics instructor in Chester County, with two locations. Though her studios are large and she could implement CDC protocols, she is unable to operate. Unless things change, she will have to close her business this month and sell her equipment at "fire sale" prices.

79 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope to hell that people stay at home, regardless of how much you talk about the same exact thing over and over. Can you find anything else to report on? Half or a third is not a majority. Half the problem is NOT in nursing homes. Carry on with your railing against Wolf - a leader who is doing something to help us, in stark contrast to the bumbling ignorant illiterate fool in Washington.

Anonymous said...

The way Bernie, is obsessing and going all stalker on Wolf, I am starting to believe Tricia. Time tp move on, your mental condition is showing.

Doc Rock said...

The nursing home population in Pennsylvania is estimated at 80,000.

The total population of Pennsylvania is estimated at 12,800,000.

About 1 in 160 PA residents lives in a nursing home.

As of Monday, there were 1,646 deaths in PA nursing homes (67% of all deaths).

As of Monday, there were 812 deaths in PA not in nursing homes (33% of all deaths).

What is the death rate of nursing home residents? 2.06%

What is the death rate of non-nursing home residents? 0.006%

If you were governor, would you see nursing homes as a "hotspot?" And want to do something about it?

I think so.

Doc Rock said...

12:49 said,

"Half or a third is not a majority. Half the problem is NOT in nursing homes."

I guess reading comprehension and first-grade arithmetic are not in your wheelhouse. As Bernie wrote, "more than 65% of COVID-19 deaths were in nursing homes."

"More than 65%" is more than a majority.

You are right about one thing: half the problem is NOT in nursing homes. Two-thirds of the problem is in nursing homes.

Anonymous said...

Just a reminder, the way cases and deaths are being assigned to COVID-19 include presumed connections and are officially listed as such, when in fact, the actual reason could just as well have been something else !

Anonymous said...

Tom Wolf is an asshole

Ray Nemeth Sr said...

Wolf is a lazy, incompetent manager. He could have locked down all nursing homes. Tested all residents and workers. He could have worked to limit travel to eastern pa. from New York and New Jersey. Outdoor construction should have never been limited, except for the guidelines. The road workers could have accomplished so much in this time. Also, much of the state has very few cases. It is just easier to lock down the whole state, rather than manage the crisis.

Anonymous said...

You need to count the cases in Jails also, it’s over 70% of all cases are institutionalized in nursing homes or jails

Anonymous said...

This is no longer about public health. It's about destroying the economy and turning Trump into Herbert Hoover.

Anonymous said...

"could easily quarantine those who've been infected, and isolate residents who have come into contact with them. "
And the resident who feels fine wants to go buy a cookie jar and you have no problem restricting their civil rights by restricting their movement.
After all it is not you right?
What if that resident wants to go outside after being told to stay inside?
a stroll down the city street perhaps.
Should they defy the Gov's order?

Anonymous said...

Right on Bernie! Everyone in the private sector is a life sustaining and essential individual. Perhaps Harrisburg is saturated with non-essential workers. Extrapolating that to private business is either incredibly myopic or just maybe Wolf is channeling his inner Joe Stalin.

Anonymous said...

This is a nursing home and 70+ killer. Of the 800 non-nursing home deaths, how many were aged 70 or older? The overwhelming majority. It's run through jails, but with almost zero death rate.

And we destroyed countless lives through economic hardship, increased suicide, increased domestic abuse, increased substance abuse, failure to follow up on chemo and radiation therapies, failure to get life-saving early cancer screenings, an estimated loss of 40% of small businesses and 60% of restaurants. Decisions were made based upon models calling for 20,000 deaths in PA. We've had 2,500 - mostly in nursing homes. Gracedale and the National Guard bailout should be a national story. Bernie will barely mention it because of how embarrassing it it to him, as reliable, head cheerleader for Lamont McClure, who should resign over this outrageous debacle. County government failed to protect Gracedale residents while our state government issued edicts that will cost thousands of lives. Nice job.

Anonymous said...

The formal wear guy as one example given can open.
Let him go .
When no one shows up to rent formal wear because large groups are passe right now he still starves.
Sounds like formal wear guy wants a cash payout(loan he gets to not repay which may be tax free unlike unemployment which is taxed) and whatever business he can drum up.
Like mr realtor--yep tons of folks just want to take on a mortgage right now.
he is in the same boat -he opens up and no customers.
As to getting unemployment it is not unusual in normal times for regular folks to wait for their funds.
often two or three weeks so what makes the self employed so special that they get to the head of the line?
The Feds released guidance for the self employed on April 17th.
So the biggest part of the delay is on the Federal level.

Anonymous said...

"And the resident who feels fine wants to go buy a cookie jar and you have no problem restricting their civil rights by restricting their movement."

Governors have extraordinarily broad powers in times of public health crises. Historically, what you describe is exactly how we used to deal with epidemics. With a scalpel. This governor has chosen a sledgehammer

Anonymous said...

"And we destroyed countless lives through economic hardship, increased suicide, increased domestic abuse, increased substance abuse, failure to follow up on chemo and radiation therapies, failure to get life-saving early cancer screenings, an estimated loss of 40% of small businesses and 60% of restaurants."

don't forgot the big bump in childhood illness next year. Pediatricians have estimated that over 50% of children and infants have been unable to get standard inoculations against the battery of killer childhood diseases that we had (heretofore) almost eliminated

Anonymous said...

"The formal wear guy as one example given can open.
Let him go .
When no one shows up to rent formal wear because large groups are passe right now he still starves.
Sounds like formal wear guy wants a cash payout(loan he gets to not repay which may be tax free unlike unemployment which is taxed) and whatever business he can drum up.
Like mr realtor--yep tons of folks just want to take on a mortgage right now.
he is in the same boat -he opens up and no customers."

that is their choice to make. how arrogant of you..."that man's profession is unimportant, so who cares?

incidentally, i just closed on a house Friday, in another state. I'm coordinating the purchase of another property this Friday. Commerce will continue, if we let it.

Anonymous said...

My Granddaughter works in a nursing home in the central part of the State. She is experiencing the nursing facility ducking their heads in the sand and hiding much needed statistics. They do no testing of patients or workers because the nursing home doesn't want to get a bad image. The nursing home workers lack necessary gear to safely care for the residents of the nursing home. Wait.....you will see those numbers of fatalities in private nursing facilities sky rocket. You will see the number of fatalities of all the population more than double once the actual reporting is finalized. Yes the young will basically survive this pandemic when they come in contact with COVID 19, but they are the younger generation transmitting the disease to the older population. How do you control that issue?

Anonymous said...

Panic leads to Draconian decisions and the gov fell into that pit pretty early on. The situations in the metro NY/NJ areas scared the crap out of him and he lost any sense of self and what was right for PA under the circumstances. When it comes to public health..I am one to walk softly and make decisions very carefully. This did not have to be this way and the nursing home situation was there for all to see very early on and PA blew it big time. Hindsight is what it is but still the state persists in their ass backward approaches. Time will tell but normal is long gone and the economic damage is possibly worse than the deaths sustained by our residents.

Anonymous said...

The younger generation just doesn’t understand the amount of financial and family lifestyle destruction that lies ahead for them. That’s too far ‘out’ to worry over.

NO, it is not too soon to care! One cannot build financial independence in later years without getting a very early start in understanding and working with money. We are all facing enormous increases in taxes and fees in upcoming years to make this challenge even more difficult for those younger families.

Anonymous said...

7:26 - Spot on! You just can’t lay this ‘hurt’ solely on the Federal Administration. The Feds have provided unprecedented assistance in money and resources. And, it really did act as quickly as it possibly could.

Some State Governments were prepared for something like this, Pennsylvania was not. Nearly half of all states are further along the road back to ‘normal’ than Pennsylvania is. Those states dealt with this same Federal resources!

I’m holding Governor Wolf, and present State Legislators, responsible for our lack of preparedness.

Anonymous said...

When the U.S. Supreme Court joins with the PA Supreme Court (twice) in not reversing Gov. Wolf's order, will it still be "draconian"?

IT'S A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY.

Anonymous said...

8:31 - the US Supreme Court did not make any formal decision/ruling. This was one Justice asking for a response from Pennsylvania and deciding he didn’t yet have enough information to move the matter forward.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"IT'S A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY." Yeah, the sky is falling.

Anonymous said...

The trouble with those who wants fewer restrictions is that only lip service, at best, is paid to public health. There is still plenty of COVID-19 outside of nursing homes.

I agree that we should look into opening up cautiously, but with health experts front and center. Economists should play a much less prominent role. So should bloggers, but no one listens to them much anyway

Anonymous said...

Bernie O'Hare said...
"IT'S A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY." Yeah, the sky is falling.
May 5, 2020 at 8:44 AM

Yes, it is. It just hasn't landed yet on you. Give it a couple of weeks.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
8:31 - the US Supreme Court did not make any formal decision/ruling. This was one Justice asking for a response from Pennsylvania and deciding he didn’t yet have enough information to move the matter forward.
May 5, 2020 at 8:39 AM

As I clearly indicated, the U.S. Supreme has not yet upheld PA, but I believe it will. I agree that Justice Alito is only a screener at this point. It takes the agreement of four justices just to hear a case.

Anonymous said...

How sad that some people not so secretly long for a worse case scenario in deaths to bolster their candidates position in the November elections.

Anonymous said...

8:31 - IF the full Supreme Court would take up something like this, and I highly doubt it would, that decision could be a year, or more, away. Pennsylvania citizens don’t have that much time to wait.

Anonymous said...

No, what's sad is that we're looking at a worst-case scenario because we have a president who won't do his job. Of course, pointing this out is "political". But by all means, we should remember this at election time. Oh yeah.

Anonymous said...

9:05 - Maybe I could be better convinced if you would lay out, with specifics, how this President is refusing to do his job. Now, please don’t tell me he could have responded more quickly. I am firmly convinced that’s an unfair charge.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
8:31 - IF the full Supreme Court would take up something like this, and I highly doubt it would, that decision could be a year, or more, away. Pennsylvania citizens don’t have that much time to wait.
May 5, 2020 at 9:05 AM


I also doubt that the Court will hear the case, but if it did, presumably that consideration would be seriously accelerated. But I believe that a strong majority of PA citizens support Gov. Wolf, so we're good as things stand. Those who disagree already have had the state Supreme Court hear the matter twice, and they court has upheld the order.

Far from our being ruled by a dictator, our checks and balances system is functioning just fine. Your problem is that you disagree with the outcome. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

This line from the government's response says it all: "much of what they argue amounts to
public policy disagreements as to how the Governor used his authority."

Gov. Wolf was elected and his decisions don't require unanimous support, although I believe he has a very high degree of support. Those who disagree are stuck with him. Such is democracy.

I suspect that all but a few of those who are bitching about Gov. Wolf voted for the Orange Disaster in 2016, and I'm just as stuck with him--but not for much longer, thankfully.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
9:05 - Maybe I could be better convinced if you would lay out, with specifics, how this President is refusing to do his job. Now, please don’t tell me he could have responded more quickly. I am firmly convinced that’s an unfair charge.
May 5, 2020 at 9:09 AM

Then take your fingers out of your ears, pardner. That aside, for all practical purposes, he STILL hasn't responded much at all. Can you tell me what's the White House "plan" at this point except to encourage everyone to relax the mitigation measures and let the virus spread? Oh, if only the noted health expert Jared Kushner had more time to spend on this problem!

Anonymous said...

9:10 - Thanks. I’ve written several times here, I am nearly 70 years old. My net worth will get me through this just fine. I’m disappointed by what I’m seeing, but remain compassionate for others who are less fortunate. Yes, people like us are out there! Our younger generations are being decimated. This must end now. With certain precautions, for sure.

Anonymous said...

“The formal wear guy as one example given can open.
Let him go .
When no one shows up to rent formal wear because large groups are passe right now he still starves.”
You just illustrated what the decisions at the state level(Nebraska never closed) have done to us. There are 1 million small businesses in PA. The “formal wear guy” is part of the contributing economic fabric of our state. His loss affects not only the personal income spending he and his family do locally but also the spending of his business; local advertising companies , reps, cleaning service, HVAC, plumbing, the lunch/coffee shop next door, the local printer, the local charities, and importantly for the state, his taxes. Multiply “formal wear guy” by 100,000 small businesses who likely won’t survive and it will definitely affect all of us greater than COVID-19. It’s not a choice of money over life, its choosing to protect the livelihoods of millions with their lives in front of them over the lives of a few who have already lived theirs. And yes I would say that to my parents as well…and to me!

Anonymous said...

But we're not taking nearly as many precautions as we should.

This is going to get WORSE.

Anonymous said...

9:19 - I really can’t say more that could ever convince you differently. To me, anyway, you are a lost cause. Maybe, you could try some different sources for accurate information. Granted, they’re getting harder to find!

Anonymous said...

9:23, you seem to believe that you can force consumers to buy products or services in which they're no longer interested, however much we may sympathize with the business owner. Often there are changes to markets: for example, when's the last time you bought carbon paper?

Similarly, they can open all of the restaurants that they want, but my wife and I are a LONG, LONG way from being ready to sit down there and spend an hour. Most of us fully recognize that the virus doesn't give two shits that Pres. Numbnuts thinks we're ready to reopen.

What I don't think the Reopening Cheerleaders recognize is that premature action only will exacerbate the economic as well as the public health problems, as they are closely linked. The foundation that's missing is adequate testing, and for that I blame the White House.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
9:19 - I really can’t say more that could ever convince you differently. To me, anyway, you are a lost cause. Maybe, you could try some different sources for accurate information. Granted, they’re getting harder to find!
May 5, 2020 at 9:24 AM


Well, you certainly aren't even trying to defend Pres. Dimwit. Now, if you could explain to me that plan that I asked about, that would deserve consideration. Your problem, though, is that you have nothing. And believe me, most people see that.

But, by all means, continue with your career as a Trump Deadender. I hope you are able to avoid the health consequences of your own policy preferences.

Anonymous said...

Agree 2:28

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
This is no longer about public health. It's about destroying the economy and turning Trump into Herbert Hoover.
May 5, 2020 at 6:24 AM

How can it possibly be about public health when only 70,000 (likely many more, with lots more to come) have died.

If Trump has been destroyed, he did it to himself. What's just tragic that he killed so many people in the process. (Don't blame me. I didn't vote for him.)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The way Bernie, is obsessing and going all stalker on Wolf, I am starting to believe Tricia. Time tp move on, your mental condition is showing.
May 5, 2020 at 2:28 AM

Now, now. Don't be an "elitist".

Anonymous said...

Here's another fine point made by the Commonwealth to the U.S. Supreme Court: "The Pennsylvania Supreme Court pointed out that the term 'waiver process' is a misnomer, as it was not intended 'to provide waivers to businesses that are not life-sustaining, but rather constitute[d] an attempt to identify businesses that may have been mis-categorized as non-life-sustaining.'"

So, say, a construction company that needed to repair a water main had a chance under Gov. Wolf's order to explain that the water is "life-sustaining". However, it's hard to understand how a golf course, beauty salon, or restaurant could show that.

The plaintiffs think they should've had a trial where they could bring in experts to argue the economic impact on them of closing their businesses, but that never was the issue and so there was no denial of procedural due process. The same mistake continues to be made by virtually all of the open Up Suddenly Crowd, which focuses on economics to the exclusion of public health.

Anonymous said...

9:31 Not at all. Unfortunately the damage has been done. The formal guys business is likely a casualty of the shut down...as are a lot of other businesses although they may not know it yet. My point was we should have not shut down the state in the first place. I believe most people would've followed CDC guidelines and businesses would've been hurt, but not eliminated. Business and customers should've had the choice to assume the risk. Yes, a lot more people would die short term but there's compelling science from real scientists that the numbers will be the same in the long run as the states/countries that didn't lock down. There is also science for the negatives of lock down and financial ruin/distress.

Scientists if you care to check out:
Hendrik Streek(less deadly)
Michael Levitt(not exponential)
Johan Giesecke(overesitmates led to wrong policy)

Anonymous said...

Everyone is an essential worker, maybe not for the government, but for themselves and their families.

Anonymous said...

10:28, I never doubted that you could find at least a few authorities who side with you. Such is the nature of science. There also are many more scientists and doctors who disagree with your authorities, and I prefer to err--if it's an error--on the side of caution. So does the Governor. Pres. Trump does not. That is the nature of politics.

As to assumption of risk, I do not accept the heightened risk that others would choose to impose upon me. I want and expect my state government to protect me from that heightened risk, which--thankfully--it did. Had the state not done so, I still would not have stormed the state capitol brandishing automatic weapons or Nazi or Confederate flags.

Judgment calls necessarily must be made. I trust Trump for neither generally giving proper consideration to science nor telling the truth. You can ague with the details of Gov. Wolf's order, but decisions needed to be made and he did his job. For that, he's called a dictator even though he was elected twice and the state courts have affirmed his actions.

And damage has been done to much more than the economy. Open up thoughtlessly, and I believe that much more damage of both types is still to come. Good luck to us all, as it sure looks like we're going to need it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Everyone is an essential worker, maybe not for the government, but for themselves and their families.
May 5, 2020 at 10:47 AM

Yeah, and so what? Everyone also is potentially both a carrier and recipient of the virus. You're not much good to your family when you're sick or worse.

You're not the governor. Deal with it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
My Granddaughter works in a nursing home in the central part of the State. She is experiencing the nursing facility ducking their heads in the sand and hiding much needed statistics. They do no testing of patients or workers because the nursing home doesn't want to get a bad image.
May 5, 2020 at 7:08 AM

And how do they look now that the dead are piling up?

Anonymous said...

This blog talks a good game about transparency. But it endorsed Wolf twice, and he hasn't taken a live presser with a single follow up question since this began. Lamont should be called out for administering the single worst nursing home disaster in the state. Nobody tells these emperors they're wearing no clothes and are killing people.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
This blog talks a good game about transparency. But it endorsed Wolf twice, and he hasn't taken a live presser with a single follow up question since this began. Lamont should be called out for administering the single worst nursing home disaster in the state. Nobody tells these emperors they're wearing no clothes and are killing people.
May 5, 2020 at 11:24 AM


I agree with Gov. Wolf's executive order but agree that he should make himself publicly available for questions.

Bernie O'Hare said...

11:26, Your comment is off topic here. I have a separate post about masks and you can post your comment there. You are diverting attention away from nursing homes.

Anonymous said...

So why didn't you just move it there?

Bernie O'Hare said...

"This blog talks a good game about transparency. But it endorsed Wolf twice, and he hasn't taken a live presser with a single follow up question since this began. Lamont should be called out for administering the single worst nursing home disaster in the state. Nobody tells these emperors they're wearing no clothes and are killing people."

I think I've been very critical of Wolf. I really detest accusations that he or Trump or anyone has blood on their hands. But I did vote for him at least once and possibly twice. Shame on me.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"So why didn't you just move it there?"

You can do that yourself.

Anonymous said...

"Up Suddenly Crowd, which focuses on economics to the exclusion of public health."

no, there are many of us who would like to focus on ALL aspects of public policy in making this decision. unfortunately, we have taken a blinkered, covid-only approach to our public policy. a holistic course would have been better.

Anonymous said...

10:55 I believe you are conscientious regarding your behavior and your attitude during the pandemic. As for the risk, I am guessing you are under 50. If you are, and are unfortunate enough to catch the virus you have a 94% chance of not requiring hospitalization. As you are also not in a nursing home, you have a 98.4% chance of surviving COVID-19. And that percentage is only based on those who TESTED positive. You yourself say that there has not been adequate testing and I believe you. Therefore doesn't it stand to reason that there are far more positive cases which weren't tested? If you believe that, which I do, that lowers even more your chances of being hospitalized and/or dying. Additionally, assigning COVID-19 as cause of death seems, at least anecdotally, to be somewhat liberal.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Up Suddenly Crowd, which focuses on economics to the exclusion of public health."

no, there are many of us who would like to focus on ALL aspects of public policy in making this decision. unfortunately, we have taken a blinkered, covid-only approach to our public policy. a holistic course would have been better.
May 5, 2020 at 12:09 PM


I accept that, but don't see it all that much. Trump issues guidelines that address safet but ignores them, says he's not wearing a mask, and longs for the resumption of densely-packed political rallies. Pence refuses to wear a mask in the friggin' Mayo Clinic. When I look at the pictures from the demonstrations, I don't see any that say "Open Up, But Thoughtfully". In fact, what comes out more often is "The COVID-10 data are a fraud and so we shouldn't take any precautions at all. And by the way, I have a big gun to show you."

Because we can't stay too shut for too long, I think that this is resolving itself as we go. It's just that we have to figure out how to protect ourselves and others around us; Trump makes it clear that we're on our own. Wouldn't it make sense for the White House briefings to feature experts who shower us with specific information about how business can operate more safely?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
10:55 I believe you are conscientious regarding your behavior and your attitude during the pandemic. As for the risk, I am guessing you are under 50. If you are, and are unfortunate enough to catch the virus you have a 94% chance of not requiring hospitalization. As you are also not in a nursing home, you have a 98.4% chance of surviving COVID-19. And that percentage is only based on those who TESTED positive. You yourself say that there has not been adequate testing and I believe you. Therefore doesn't it stand to reason that there are far more positive cases which weren't tested? If you believe that, which I do, that lowers even more your chances of being hospitalized and/or dying. Additionally, assigning COVID-19 as cause of death seems, at least anecdotally, to be somewhat liberal.

May 5, 2020 at 12:10 PM

I don't think my age influences my position much, as we all have some degree of risk here and the ability to spread the virus. I also see many indications that things are going to get worse for everyone long before they get better, so there's relatively little solace to be taken from being outside a nursing home.

Although I agree that if we assume that there are more positive cases than we have identified that the mortality rate goes down, that's only if all else is equal. The mortality rate goes up, all else being equal, as deaths have not all been identified. And sure, that also works if COVID-19 deaths are wrongly attributed to COVID-19.

More to the ;point, I do believe that the virus is rather more prevalent than confirmed by testing and so we really don't know what level of risk we're taking. I prefer to listen to the health experts much more than the economists.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:10 said:

"But I believe that a strong majority of PA citizens support Gov. Wolf, so we're good as things stand."


Not if you drove by any playground in democrat-controlled Allentown last weekend.

People were out in droves, ignoring the Governor's orders. The police didn't even bother to TRY to move people along.

He's losing droves of supporters. He's term-limited and won't feel it. But his party will.


Anonymous said...

No winners in this mess..only degrees of loss. Some are making money off our situation but not that many to really get twisted up about. Better days ahead if we get a vaccine and some short term cures for those in danger of succumbing. Blame is useless at this point except politically. Hoping we live to tell the story.

Anonymous said...

From The Hill:
Deborah Birx, a key member of the White House task force, said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” over the weekend that “our projections have always been between 100,000 and 240,000 American lives lost, and that’s with full mitigation” as well as social distancing remaining in place.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Anon 9:10 said:

"But I believe that a strong majority of PA citizens support Gov. Wolf, so we're good as things stand."

Not if you drove by any playground in democrat-controlled Allentown last weekend.

People were out in droves, ignoring the Governor's orders. The police didn't even bother to TRY to move people along.

He's losing droves of supporters. He's term-limited and won't feel it. But his party will.

May 5, 2020 at 12:49 PM

We'll see. It's not like the people in the park are being clubbed by the police, is it? certainly some people don't want to be restricted at all, but neither do they want to see people die. Have you seen The Orange One's poll numbers lately?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
No winners in this mess..only degrees of loss. Some are making money off our situation but not that many to really get twisted up about. Better days ahead if we get a vaccine and some short term cures for those in danger of succumbing. Blame is useless at this point except politically. Hoping we live to tell the story.
May 5, 2020 at 12:51 PM

Largely agree, except that assigning blame also involved diagnosing what's going wrong.

We need a reliable test, in abundance. Now who might've handled that particular problem for us?

Anonymous said...

From PA Dept. Health via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
Cases across the state are expected to increase at an exponential rate. Because of limited testing and other factors, experts believe the virus is far more widespread than case counts suggest.
Cases: 50,957
Death: 3,012

Anonymous said...

Wait until Wolf and Dr Are You Kidding Me order all Pennsylvanians to wear beekeeper masks to prevent Murder Hornet deaths. Their Karen defenders will narc on every neighbor who fails to march around with a basket on their heads.

Anonymous said...

1:03 PM

Why do you keep posting that quote from March 20?

Anonymous said...

Because it's there, today, as a footnote to the statistics. Just as it was, presumably, on March 20.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Wait until Wolf and Dr Are You Kidding Me order all Pennsylvanians to wear beekeeper masks to prevent Murder Hornet deaths. Their Karen defenders will narc on every neighbor who fails to march around with a basket on their heads.
May 5, 2020 at 2:02 PM


Boy, the governor really has to be worried about you as a political opponent. I don't understand how he gets any sleep.

Anonymous said...

2:07 PM

Footnotes require context. I see now why you refuse to provide a link, since the context would prove you can read but not think.

Levine and Wolf are on record since the middle of April as saying the growth is not exponential.

Unlike you, I will provide a link:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/coronavirus-in-pennsylvania-5-takeaways-from-the-week/ar-BB12Q12d

"The state’s top health official says Pennsylvania has successfully “flattened the curve” in fighting the coronavirus, meaning there is not the exponential rise in positive cases, as was the case early on in the pandemic."

LVCI said...

Somewhat off topic...
If a vaccine is ever developed will it receive an exclusive (overpriced) patent or should anyone who wants to manufacture it be able?

LVCI said...

Somewhat on topic.. Government at its best.
When government gets involved as to who gets to stay open and who doesn't is very socialistic in a bad way. At this point we've all been warned what could or could not happen. Let's leave it up to people the risks they're willing to assume for themselves and family members. I think most of us understand the wolf (pardon the pun) is waiting outside the door. We can't hide forever.

There may be or not be a vaccine or treatment coming anytime soon. Question is who do we trust more? Government or the people to make their own decisions? People may not always make the wisest choices, but it still theirs to decide. I'm certain if things head south people will respond accordingly.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
2:57 PM

Found all I needed. Confirmed my original suspicion.

You didn't want to post the URL because you knew it would make you look silly. Context, context, context.
May 5, 2020 at 3:21 PM


Obviously if you can find the information, Forrest, anyone can. Congratulations! It says there exactly what I said, which anyone can check out.

Anonymous said...

LVCI said...
Somewhat on topic.. Government at its best.
When government gets involved as to who gets to stay open and who doesn't is very socialistic in a bad way. At this point we've all been warned what could or could not happen. Let's leave it up to people the risks they're willing to assume for themselves and family members. I think most of us understand the wolf (pardon the pun) is waiting outside the door. We can't hide forever.

There may be or not be a vaccine or treatment coming anytime soon. Question is who do we trust more? Government or the people to make their own decisions? People may not always make the wisest choices, but it still theirs to decide. I'm certain if things head south people will respond accordingly.
May 5, 2020 at 3:24 PM

I disagree. It's an emergency, and those with whom we entrusted emergency powers made a judgment call as to how to cope with it. The health professionals should advise them concerning any relaxation of those precautions, or otherwise the virus may only get worse than we can hope to contain.

Although I certainly have no problem with questioning the actions of public officials and see that many of my fellow citizens are, like me, being conscientious when it comes to safety, I also believe that there is a significant group that will quite intentionally flaunt safety measures just to prove a point (or two of ten). That puts everyone in danger. Any day of the week, I'll trust Gov. Wolf over some yahoo who's waving a confederate flag and telling me how there's no epidemic at all.

Anonymous said...

3:37 PM

" Congratulations! It says there exactly what I said, which anyone can check out."

And you said something "exactly" about a footnote.

Do you know what a footnote is?

But let's see if you can think.

Do the references we've turned up support that the DOH NOW things the growth will be exponential in the future?

I know, thinking is hard, but give it a try.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
3:37 PM

" Congratulations! It says there exactly what I said, which anyone can check out."

And you said something "exactly" about a footnote.

Do you know what a footnote is?
May 5, 2020 at 3:52 PM

I feel confident that no one is interested in your point, but anyone who is can see the website for themselves. If you have a complaint about use of the word "exponential", take it up with the newspaper. It's their website, and my quote is accurate.


LVCI said...

May 5, 2020 at 3:47 PM Anonymous said... Any day of the week, I'll trust Gov. Wolf over some yahoo who's waving a confederate flag and telling me how there's no epidemic at all.
And that's you're decision. My point exactly.

Anonymous said...

4:07 PM

Proving once again you can cut and paste but not think. And it certainly is worth pointing out when someone posts an inaccurate quote from a media outlet, whether or not it's the media's fault. Especially when it's been pointed out repeatedly.

You really think it's unimportant whether the cases are growing exponentially? That would indeed be surprising to anyone following the topic. But then, you don't seem to know what a footnote is either.

Anonymous said...

we've been hearing about "exponential growth" since this thing began. but we haven't seen exponential growth

and before we all rush to give Wolf credit for that, please note the statistical model they all were relying on was calling for that growth, even with the lockdown in place. the modeling was flawed, and heavily criticized by by statisticians.