As of yesterday, the average number of new Covid-19 cases has dropped from 238 to 188. Unfortunately, the magic number to go from red to yellow is 58. We're nowhere close.
Unfortunately, Northampton County continues to dominate the the total number of cases in the 10-County Region (27.4% over the past 14 days). This is because it has 13 nursing and personal care homes.
82 comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDo6eHyeI8E
First time I heard the term Essential Worker was from Spielberg.
Bernie,
Where has Dr. Thode been posting this information? Thanks.
I appreciate Dr Thode's troubling analysis. I just don't trust the numbers, which are not his. This state raised 200 souls from the dead last week. They're pulling numbers out of their asses. GIGO. If the numbers are to be believed, it certainly looks like a nursing home and 70+ killer, which calls into question why the rest of us were locked down. We should have focused on nursing home safety and not destroyed the entire economy and countless lives.
Wolf want a big job in the Democratic party when this is over==so he must do as much damage to the economy as possible.
please ask the professor to do the same charts showing nursing home/personal care data and all others separately. could be limited to lehigh/norco data only.
The latest models indicate eleventy two kabillion will die if we open the state prematurely. I'm not a "if it saves one life" person, but eleventy two kabillion is a big number that should not be ignored. Most of these deaths will be elderly who touched sliding boards while playing in parks. We've been warned. Will we react?
We will never get there with the amount of nursing homes in Northampton County and the struggles gracedale is currently having
Could we prevail upon Dr. Thode to offer his thoughts/insights into the efficacy/validity/usefulness of the use of "new daily cases" as the standard upon which our fate rests?
In other words, with more and more testing going on, likely every day since this began, won't the number of "new cases" almost be guaranteed to continue to go up?
The Penn State Data Center put together a PA Risk Assessment report back on April 2nd which looks at several different statistics among them the percentage of nursing home beds in each County.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/777e45976c01464988a13e715b472101
Unfortunately, the raw underlying data doesn't seem to be a part of the report only some interesting looking maps by County. I offer no conclusions---only questioning the Governor's use of "new cases" as the standard upon which our fate is set against.
Thank you, Gov. Wolf, for protecting our health.
Anonymous said...
I appreciate Dr Thode's troubling analysis. I just don't trust the numbers, which are not his. This state raised 200 souls from the dead last week. They're pulling numbers out of their asses. GIGO. If the numbers are to be believed, it certainly looks like a nursing home and 70+ killer, which calls into question why the rest of us were locked down. We should have focused on nursing home safety and not destroyed the entire economy and countless lives.
May 7, 2020 at 6:21 AM
Facts are stubborn things.
Many counties and communities in PA have nursing homes and other senior only living facilities. Why do not all have the infection rates seen in Lehigh and Northampton Counties? We need to seek answers to the questions of how and when COVID-19 first came to the Lehigh Valley and how it entered into the nursing homes. The answers of why it spread and was so deadly once it was in the nursing homes seems fairly obvious. I've yet to see anyone give us a verified factually supported reason of how and when it got there. I personally believe without any proof that COVID-19 was in our area well before anyone was aware it was here and before most of us were aware of how contagious it actually is. If I am correct in my theory, there is a much larger regional story here than what just the nursing home statistics are telling us.
Say it ain't so, Bernie.
The covid-19 infection and death rate in other counties are, in fact, skewed by the rate of infection in nursing homes. That is the point Dr. Rjhodes awas making. That is the point I was making earlier this week. The statistics being used by the Sec'y of Health are data-biased. Statewide, 65% of the Covid-19 deaths have been at nursing homes. https://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-nursing-homes-are-800-lbs.html
"We should have focused on nursing home safety and not destroyed the entire economy and countless lives."
BINGO. The very first deaths ion Washington State occurred at nursing homes. That should have been a clue.
This is what happens when the president ignores his duty to analyze, prescribe, and act.
It's an absolute scandal.
Anon: 8:25---I agree, but the stats we have are those that we more or less have to look at. Stats and polls are ALWAYS suspect.
Anon: 8:27----I agree with you too. Taking a look at the PSU Data Center maps---you can see that Erie County has as many and more nursing home beds and seniors at risk than do Lehigh and Northampton, yet their "new cases" and "deaths" are MUCH lower than ours. This is true of other "yellow" Counties who experienced far fewer cases too.
Why? Is the simply answer, proximity to NY/NJ? Or is it that combined with how OUR nursing homes handled or mishandled the crisis? I don't know the answers--I'm only calling into question what is really going on here?
As for Anon 8:13---those who support a prolonged shutdown in the name of "safety for all" are likely either 1) continuing to be paid regularly; or 2) living on pensions and investments--so that in either case they have no worries. Try a little empathy for those who have no paycheck or means to support their family please.
Those who believe that we should only re-open after a vaccine is developed have a false expectation. The pursuit of perfection impedes improvement.
Before this thing started the USA loses one person every 12 seconds and we barely blink an eye unless it is OUR family. Source: census.gov Think not only of those who will die from this deadly virus, but also those who will die because of the shutdown.
The Governor's approach was to use a sledge hammer when a scalpel was what was called for. I'm unaware of whether he has finally ponied up to tell us who got waivers and who didn't---we can only suspect that was/is likely because it was donors who did?
It is obvious that NO thought was given to selectively looking at what jobs could be performed with proper safeguards. One size does NOT fit all.
I don't think you people understand the meaning of "public health emergency". Thank goodness we have a governor who does.
"We need to seek answers to the questions of how and when COVID-19 first came to the Lehigh Valley and how it entered into the nursing homes. "
I can only speculate as to how it first came to the LV. Many people who live in the LV have family in or commute to NYC. According to studies from Iceland and elsewhere, 25-50% of those infected are asymptomatic. Thus it is very possible that an asymptomatic person infected someone at Gracedale, and that spark resulted in a wildfire among a population that is much more susceptible.
A lockdown was definitely needed at nursing homes and at any place where congregate living occurs. I understand the need to close schools and venues where large numbers of people are in close contact. But businesses that are able to practice social distancing should have been allowed to continue to function. Governor Wolf used a sledgehammer when a scalpel would have been far more appropriate.
Another error was the failure to roll out testing. I am astonished that, on a national level, we screwed this up. Yes, we are making up for it now, but after the horse has left the barn.
This is a colossal screw-up by government on BOTH a national and state level. Locally, government has been better with the exception of some Mayors like Lightweight Lightfoot, who have engaged in fear-mongering and threatened people with jail instead of trying to persuade them with reason.
Some don't understand the meaning of "viable economy."
"I don't think you people understand the meaning of "public health emergency".
I by no means deny that a public health emergency exists. I agree with many of the measures imposed. But that is no excuse for fear-mongering. It is no excuse for imposing draconian measures that may kill more people than the disease itself, especially when they fail to address the problem where it is occurring - at nursing homes. In fact, the state has insisted that homes continue to accept new residents, even those who tested positive for Covid-19. That is simply insane.
It certainly doesn't include killing off people unnecessarily. Where's the testing and tracing?
The politicians screwed this up as usual--they did not take care the old age homes --yet they closed all schools--our career politicians will never be good for country. These people are breed by our system of government that no longer works best for our people. It will only get worse w3ith this type of leader that comes out of our system of government.
Bernie:
You almost sound like Ronald Reagan LOL
“In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”
Your observations also supports the notion that "Government is best that is closest to the people".
Bernie, of course the nursing homes have skewed the statistics in all counties but what explains the differences among nursing homes that have or had high rates, versus those that do not? Just as the Navy is finding out on its ships, there are various factors as to the "why" of things. All their ships have concentrated living conditions but not all ships seem to have wide spread crew issues. How the disease got there, when it was recognized for what it is, and how fast the people in charge properly reacted to the threat are very important to the understanding of this. For us here in the Lehigh Valley, is our proximity to the New York metropolitan area a factor? Are there differences in the experiences of nursing homes with more affluent residents versus public run homes that serve more people with lower socio-economic backgrounds? Are some nursing homes simply better prepared and managed than others? I have no certain answers but I think it is very important to find more out as some of that information may be critical to what we should do if a large repeat wave hits a wider segment of society as we reopen.
9:06 AM
When is it ok to kill off people necessarily?
Are we back to "zero is the only acceptable number?"
Anon 9:19 AM.... you are SPOT on and exactly the point I was making about Erie County versus Lehigh County. You raise good questions---location, procedures, economics of the nursing home?
And Bernie--you are PRECISELY correct about the state of Washington staring in nursing homes---we knew that back when---March and still we lacked the focus on nursing homes? Duh?
Marked Presumed-Covid on Death certificates
what the hell is that, a way to pad the numbers?
Anonymous said...
9:06 AM
When is it ok to kill off people necessarily?
Are we back to "zero is the only acceptable number?"
May 7, 2020 at 9:09 AM
Of course not. The Gov. has issued specific numbers that reflect that regions should not reopen until the virus is better under control. We should be focusing on that rather than complaining that the virus still is going strong.
We can't more reliably classify deaths because Pres. Knucklehead had abjectly neglected testing. So, the medical professionals are doing the best they can.
In addition to the nursing home statistics in PA, which have been well covered here, an interesting statistic has come out of NY.
Apparently most (about 65%) of the new, non-nursing home cases there are coming from people who are under that state's lockdown order.
So that means that not only is Wolf an idiot for his one-size-fits-all approach here that's collapsing the PA economy, his order is likely also putting you MORE at risk of getting the disease.
So now there's even more blood on Wolf's hands.
How many votes did you get for governor?
Anon 9:34 said:
"We can't more reliably classify deaths because Pres. Knucklehead had abjectly neglected testing. So, the medical professionals are doing the best they can."
I hate to break it to you, but Governors in other state have gone out and gotten the test kits that they thought their states needed.
It's also Wolf who has decided not to put a regional testing center here in the Valley.
So I'd say the problem is with GOVERNOR Knucklehead.
9:42 AM
Not sure whom you are asking, but how many votes did YOU get for President?
Pres. Dumbass here: about 3 million fewer votes than the other candidate.
Is this a great country, or what?
For those advocating continued lockdowns, we get it.
The Democrat Socialists are calling to create the conditions necessary for a general strike in the US.
So we know why you want the lockdowns to continue. We're just not willing to play along.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
Cases across the state are expected to increase at an exponential rate. Because of limited testing and other factors, experts believe the virus is far more widespread than case counts suggest.
Reported cases: 51,845
Deaths: 3,106
Anonymous said...
For those advocating continued lockdowns, we get it.
The Democrat Socialists are calling to create the conditions necessary for a general strike in the US.
So we know why you want the lockdowns to continue. We're just not willing to play along.
May 7, 2020 at 9:51 AM
Sure. Your side is the one carrying the guns and the Confederate and Nazi flags.
Hey, why don't you freedom-lovers explain why there are so many cases outside nursing homes?
9:53 AM continues to cut and paste a mis-leading quote. And we now have "freedom-lovers" as a pejorative term. The level of discourse by the ignorant and "freedom-haters" continues to hit new lows.
"Is this a great country, or what?"
May 7, 2020 at 9:51 AM
I guess you have a real problem with the constitution. Not surprising.
"Of course not. The Gov. has issued specific numbers that reflect that regions should not reopen until the virus is better under control. We should be focusing on that rather than complaining that the virus still is going strong."
May 7, 2020 at 9:25 AM
Yes, we should focus on those numbers. They are unrealistic. They are arbitrary and not based on CDC guidance. Just like the arbitrary definition of "life-sustaining."
Lines get drawn in the law every day. All you're doing is criticizing someone's line where you don't have one of your own. Gov. Wolf chose not to do nothing.
Anonymous said...
Hey, why don't you freedom-lovers explain why there are so many cases outside nursing homes?
May 7, 2020 at 9:56 AM
Anonymous said...
9:53 AM continues to cut and paste a mis-leading quote. And we now have "freedom-lovers" as a pejorative term. The level of discourse by the ignorant and "freedom-haters" continues to hit new lows.
May 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM
You must try to recognize sarcasm. It's to point out that the Thoughtless Reopeners want to trade "their" version of freedom for that of those of us who prefer not to be infected with the virus. We are trying to protect our lives.
Anonymous said...
"Is this a great country, or what?"
May 7, 2020 at 9:51 AM
I guess you have a real problem with the constitution. Not surprising.
May 7, 2020 at 10:02 AM
No, Mr. Patriot, I didn't say that Pres. Failure isn't the president. I'm saying that most voters didn't support him. And yes, I'd be happy to abolish the electoral college, which has long outlived its usefulness.
9:56 AM
"We are trying to protect our lives."
Will you stop with the sarcasm.
Meant the comment in 11:09 am, who apparently is also 9.56 AM
11:06 AM
"All you're doing is criticizing someone's line where you don't have one of your own. "
Sure I do. Many on here have said let's get back to "flattening the curve." My line is we go back to making sure the health care system is not overwhelmed, and then do our best to have a functioning economy and letting people practice their livelihoods when they can follow CDC guidelines.
Yeah, I'm sure you don't like that, but as you said, all you'd be doing is criticizing someone else's line. And I don't think you're going to find anyone who said we should do nothing. Just because "Wolf chose not to do nothing" doesn't give him a free pass. Nobody "chose not to do nothing."
Meh, should be Nobody "chose to do nothing."
"Reported cases: 51,845"
Are these active cases or total reported over two months? Seems like an important distinction. Are active cases increasing or decreasing? Are people recovering or staying sick for two months?
Anonymous said...
Nobody "chose not to do nothing."
May 7, 2020 at 11:49 AM
Disagree. There are lots of people who claim that we need take no precautions whatsoever when it comes to the virus. Close to that is Pres. I'm Not Responsible.
Nationally, this is a failure for either knowing about it in advance and ignoring the problem, woefully underestimating it, or getting blindsided by it, probably a mixture of both. Lack of tests has been and will continue to be the primary issue for everyone. Bottom line is piss poor planning on the federal level.
State level government is likely being over protective and proceeding with too much caution, primarily because it is bumbling around in the dark due to a lack of testing and the hard data that those tests could provide that could definitively tell who has/had it, who is most at risk and best methods to avoid it.
We're essentially 2 months into this problem - the stay at home orders have at least had the positive influence of avoiding what was the initial primary fear - that hospitals would be simply overrun with cases and people dying in the parking lots because of it.
There probably is room and reasoning to loosen up some restrictions across the state, but that is complicated by 2 things. The slippery slope that is the "Why them and not me?!?!?" complaints and the splitting of hairs that comes with it AND more importantly the risk that doing so results in a spike of cases that sends us all back to square one.
The biggest difference here is that Wolf can't run again and can afford to make unpopular decisions (not necessarily correct mind you) he feels are better options/greater good in the long term, whereas Trump has to make decisions he feels will get himself reelected and a lot of the consequences in those decisions run counter to each other.
Good analysis.
But how can a state be "too cautious" when we don't have the testing and tracing capacity that we need? During the recent shutdowns the federal government should have been leading our preparation, but we have been abandoned.
11:57 AM
Try looking up "travel ban - Europe" and "travel ban - China"
And while we're on the subject of woulda coulda shoulda...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gov-cuomo-says-new-york-city-will-not-be-quarantined-it-cannot-happen.html
Maybe also google "De Blasio - NYC restaurants" and "Pelosi - Chinatown"
Anonymous said..
Try looking up "travel ban - Europe" and "travel ban - China"
May 7, 2020 at 12:25 PM
There never was a travel ban from China. Fake news, as the silly ones like to say.
A partial travel ban hardly is a sufficiently comprehensive approach to a pandemic. Trump failed us, and abjectly so.
9:08 so true
Get a grip on yourself, man. 9:08 was ages ago.
" ... it still, nevertheless, has saved an untold number of lives."
Prove it. You can't. Letting statements like this slip by without any factual backing is part of the problem.
12:45 PM
The I guess Politico wrote about a fake story and "experts" were worried about nothing.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/coronavirus-quaratine-travel-110750
I got this straight from my state rep who was briefed by Dr Levine, these stats don't include the 200 or so that were added late yesterday due to miscalculations:
3106 have died of covid, 2108 of them were in nursing homes, personal care homes, or assisted living residences. So 67.9% of people who have died lived in these types of settings,
Average age of those that died is 79 years old.
of the 3106 who died, 11.9% had 4 comorbidities, 22.7% had 3 comorbidities, 27.2% had 2 comorbidities, and 22.6% had 1 comorbidity. 11% had zero. While these percentages only add up to 95.4%, these were the stats provided verbally, perhaps Dr. Levine is mathematics challenged.
Of the 3106 who died, 61% had hypertension, 54% had heart disease, 37% had diabetes, and 30% had chronic pulmonary disease.
According to the Hospital and Health System Association of PA, (HAP), citing PA dept of health stats, there are 37000 beds in PA hospitals, as of today, 2572 of these beds were occupied by covid patients, which amounts to 6.95%.
There are 539 patients on ventilators, which amounts to 1.46% of all hospital beds.
Given these numbers IMO we need to protect the nursing facilities, have the elderly and health challenged shelter in place, and smartly and carefully begin to open are economy back up.
"No social distancing, thousands more deaths, but who the hell cares here!"
Did you mean to say, "lockdown?" Many care about the difference between social distancing and lockdowns. Have we flattened the curve? If so, why are we still locked down when the point was to flatten the curve? I don't know if there will be thousands more deaths. Neither do you. I do know you're an imbecile who uses hyperbole in lieu of argument. I think we can all agree to agree on that.
It's a totally contrived emergency and it is unfortunate so many bought it thoroughly. Now that this false narrative is being exposed for what it is, I believe those trying to straddled the false narrative or play centrist on the subject are complicit in the deception.
7:59, This is Dr. Thode's response:
There is little question in my mind that the state's (and counties') reporting of new cases and deaths are suspect. However, it was the governor who installed the "50 cases (or less) per 100,000 residents over a 14-day period" metric for deciding when an area can go to "Yellow." So, I have to use the state's data from here:
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
Do I agree with using this metric? No. It is clear that the overwhelming issue is residents in nursing homes (and other congregate care homes). As of today, they account for 68.9% of all reported deaths, but less than 20% of all reported cases. As of today, 1 in 34 Pennsylvanians living in a nursing home has died from COVID-19; 1 in 12,000 Pennsylvanians not living in a nursing home has died from COVID-19. In other words, you are 353 times more likely to die from COVID-19 if you live in a nursing home than if you do not live in a nursing home.
If the state's reported numbers are correct.
What cannot be predicted are: 1) the testing rate going forward; and, 2) the percentage of "positives" as a result of future tests. Obviously, more tests will yield more "positives." As long as the testing rate is at least equal to the past testing rate, and if (this is a very big "if") the percentage of "positives" is similar to the past percentage of positives, we will not go to "Yellow" in the Lehigh Valley.
Great information. I'm curious what the ages of the 31.1% non-nursing home deceased are. I suspect the 353 times more likely number, while powerful, is even higher among those not in a nursing home AND under 70 years old. Again, good but sobering information. The only hope is that Wolf adjusts his secret backroom formula, which clearly isn't based upon any sound science or math. Otherwise, we're never getting out of jail under the current rules.
Anonymous said...
!:01 SO what it is still true and you are an asshole. take that for a grip.
May 7, 2020 at 1:45 PM
Oh my.
Bernie O'Hare said...
7:59, This is Dr. Thode's response:
What cannot be predicted are: 1) the testing rate going forward; and, 2) the percentage of "positives" as a result of future tests. Obviously, more tests will yield more "positives." As long as the testing rate is at least equal to the past testing rate, and if (this is a very big "if") the percentage of "positives" is similar to the past percentage of positives, we will not go to "Yellow" in the Lehigh Valley.
May 7, 2020 at 2:56 PM
What I'm reading is this: it's increased testing that's keeping us in the red.
Yes, the red status is meant to give [priority to a high incidence of the spread of the virus. That works for me.
Increased testing is likely to give more positives in people who are either asymptomatic or not seriously ill. It's the hospitalization rate that counts. If you are going to blindly follow incident rate even if people aren't increasingly getting seriously ill, we will turn this into the equivalent of shutting down the economy every flu season.
That doesn't work for the rest of us.
Anonymous said...
Increased testing is likely to give more positives in people who are either asymptomatic or not seriously ill. It's the hospitalization rate that counts. If you are going to blindly follow incident rate even if people aren't increasingly getting seriously ill, we will turn this into the equivalent of shutting down the economy every flu season.
That doesn't work for the rest of us.
May 7, 2020 at 4:38 PM
Dr. Whoositz was addressing confirmed cases.
From USA TODAY:
A member of the U.S. military who serves in the White House has tested positive for the coronavirus, but President Donald Trump has since tested negative, the White House said in a statement. CNN reported that the person served as a valet for the president and that the individual was tested after starting to exhibit symptoms Wednesday morning.
Trump, to the manor born, isn't even smart enough to limit his exposure to servants.
High-risk behavior!
Cases are important to note even if they don't require hospitalization.
Riddle me this: If testing is nonsensical, as Trump claims, then why does anyone around him have to be tested?
From The Canadian Press
WASHINGTON — COVID-19 has damaged the trust Canadians have in their American neighbours, while U.S. residents collectively have more faith in their northern counterparts than they do in themselves, a new online poll suggests.
The survey, conducted last week by Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies, found only 33 per cent of respondents in Canada who expressed trust in Americans, compared with 58 per cent in a similar survey in November of last year.
We've sunk to a new low.
5:46 PM
I would wager that Canada isn't even going to be an entity in 10 years. The plain's provinces are going to stop putting up with the Euro-canucks in the rest of the Dominion.
"Riddle me this: If testing is nonsensical, as Trump claims, then why does anyone around him have to be tested?"
The same reason anti-gun Liberals have armed guards?
"Cases are important to note even if they don't require hospitalization."
May 7, 2020 at 5:33 PM
Noting them is one thing, using them to determine whether to open up again is another.
"Dr. Whoositz was addressing confirmed cases."
May 7, 2020 at 5:07 PM
And?
"We've sunk to a new low."
Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard warned of election interference by US intelligence agencies. This was just days before the Covid-19 Craze.
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/485051-tulsi-gabbard-presidential-candidates-must-also-condemn-election
Anonymous said...
5:46 PM
I would wager that Canada isn't even going to be an entity in 10 years. The plain's provinces are going to stop putting up with the Euro-canucks in the rest of the Dominion.
May 7, 2020 at 6:04 PM
Now THIS is what I call a hijacked thread!
Anonymous said...
"Riddle me this: If testing is nonsensical, as Trump claims, then why does anyone around him have to be tested?"
The same reason anti-gun Liberals have armed guards?
May 7, 2020 at 6:05 PM
Because Jared Kushner is a wiener? I really don't think so.
You have an update on Sam Murray (not Irish/Lebanese Fraud) fixing an All Star Vote for his Son =pathetic !
7:23 PM
"Because Jared Kushner is a wiener? I really don't think so."
Non, meet sequitur.
7:21 PM
"Now THIS is what I call a hijacked thread!"
Tell it to 5:46.
When I see Jarad Kushner and Canada doesn't like us anymore (boo hoo) on the same thread I know it's gone to the dogs LOL.
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