Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Dr. Steve Thode: Daily Covid-19 Numbers Contaminated

Dr. Steve Thode, the retired Director of Real Estate Studies at Lehigh University, has been crunching the daily numbers from the Covid-19 crisis. He has already predicted we will be locked down until sometime in July if Governor Tom Wolf insists on following his own formula. But it increasingly appears that the daily data being collected is contaminated. Here's what Dr. Thode has to say concerning today's numbers, which you can review yourself at the left sidebar.

The various daily state, PSU and county reports are beginning to look like toxic waste dumps.

Weird numbers all over the place:

NorCo reported 27 new deaths yesterday after reporting 0 deaths the previous 5 days. I know the coroner's office is responsible for reporting this. Gimme a break! 0 for five straight days, then 27 in one day? BTW, NorCo's daily reported deaths do not correspond to the state's figures for NorCo for any of the last 5 days.

The state reported today that the number of new cases in Wayne County was -10. Looks like the state is using the same PSU undergrads to record data for them. (Blogger's Note: PSU has admitted to using undergrads who have erroneously reported negative numbers) 

Meanwhile, the state reported 137 new deaths today after reporting only a total of 118 new deaths the previous 3 days combined!

If the state's report is to be believed, more than 1 in 30 nursing home residents has died from COVID-19. A week ago it was 1 in 38. Maybe the governor's metric to go to "green" is when we have killed off all the nursing home folks.

Finally, if the state's report is to be believed, the positive test rate for the Big 10 Northeast has been below 10% for each of the last three days. The Big 10 Northeast had not had a single day with a positive test rate below 10% ever before, and was above 17% on May 10.

I think I need to start wearing a HAZMAT suit when I'm collecting the data.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

But we here the numbers are following the models so well...

Anonymous said...

oops. "Hear"

Anonymous said...

The Butcher's Bill is most certainly a contrivance to support a false narrative and/or continued mission creep.

Anonymous said...

Stop promoting the guy like he is some infectious disease specialist. You would quote the candlestick maker as an expert if he agreed with you. He is a realtor. Of course he is going to piss and moan. Enough already with all this Wolf nonsense.

Anonymous said...

"Enough already with all this Wolf nonsense."

Indeed. Did you really mean to say that?

Anonymous said...

Wolf does not care about you, the poor or anybody--he is an egotist and an elite who is bad for the people of pa.

Anonymous said...

I would like to see Secy. Levin run for governor. After Gov. Wolf's fantastic second term, there's going to be a lot of appreciation out there.

Anonymous said...

The numbers being thrown around ever since the virus hit Pennsylvania have been suspect. How can such an incompetent State Administration exist? Our Representatives and Senators must react now!

Hopefully, a Bill will be put forward to condemn this Governor and reject his plan. Take a Roll Call vote and have each and every member of the Legislature sign their approval/disproval vote by name. Repeat, by name!

After all, we want to acknowledge them personally. Take full credit for your performance. Who would possibly refuse?

My state, Pennsylvania, is a national embarrassment. But, I’m not leaving. I’m sticking around to fight for a brand new set of faces in Harrisburg.

Anonymous said...

THESE EXPERTS DONT KNOW SHIT ! LOL . Who or what made these so called experts experts. They haven't gotten one thing correct since day one regarding the numbers or facts of this virous.

Chris E said...

I would be interested in how the deaths are reported and if that method has changed. Are they being back-dated to the date of initial symptoms? Or are they dated by date of death? Or are the dates by date of the reporting (a data dump). I don’t know how PA does it. That would be an important thing to know in order to evaluate this guy’s analysis.

Anonymous said...

Levin took her 95 year old mother out of a home and put her in hotel levin made old age homes take people with the virus that should tell you enough about her.

Anonymous said...

Every family has the opportunity to take their loved one home if they feel that is best. The AG going after nursing homes who have poor reimbursement for all the regs and expectations is disgusting. What part of pandemic does he not understand. Nursing homes like hospitals have to reuse PPE which is against normal infection control practices and can cause transmission. No one could have prepared for the amount of PPE including masks necessary to do this right. Support health care don't go after them for something clearly out of their control in order to make the AG look good.

Anonymous said...

It's not like false reports by the coroners office acting collectively with the old folks homes is the norm for insurance reasons! It's not like the fine print doesn't describe in detail the kinds of deaths that are not insurable perils and non collectable so the insurers don't have to pay.
Dying from a health reason caused by abuse of substance = the big 0 payout, I am sure of a few estate lawyers that get the cash grab from this insurance farce fraud! Take a good look at the Wild representative and her endeavors with her partners life insurance?

Anonymous said...

What time is Trunp landing?

Anonymous said...

3,943 COVID-19 deaths in PA.

Anonymous said...

What time is Trunp landing?

Anonymous said...

He is horrible....

Anonymous said...

It is ridiculous that Trump and many other Republicans now are denouncing Fauci. How can we possibly rely on economists to give us medical advice?

Bernie O'Hare said...

I have no idea when exactly Trump is landing. As for Dr. Fauci, he is clearly an expert concerning infectious disease. He is not, however, an economist or an expert on the economy. He is also not a professional educator. It is his job to provide counsel on worst and best case scenarios from the disease. It is up to economists to provide economic advice. It is up to elected officials to weigh that together with numerous other considerations, not the least of which is individual liberty. Dr Fauci provides counsel, but does not decide policy. His job is to put into action what policymakers decide. Elected officials do not put into action what Fauci decides.

Anonymous said...

Exactly

Anonymous said...

Policy in a pandemic should follow the science. I wish we could count on people taking responsibility for themselves by distancing and masking but that's not going to happen. SOME people will but many won't because this is not a danger they can see or touch. The day after golf courses opened here I saw lots of guys 2 to a cart, no mask. etc. The stay at home order was to save us from stupid people. Watch what happens when you open the doors...hospitals will start to see a surge of cases again.

Anonymous said...

Today’s Morning Call article highlighting the opinion of two, highly regarded, infections disease experts holds greater significance to me than anything Gov. Wolf and his Administration puts out. Both agree our Lehigh Valley can be opened now, with some personal precautions in place.

But, here’s the key part . . . . the experts believe using a re-opening plan with a ‘number of new Covid-19’ metric is not the best way to go. They point out, a more accurate indicator is a metric using NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS as the marker.

For days on this Blog, we have had commenters make the same point. The number of claimed new cases is just not a trustworthy measure of the problem. Over and over, the case numbers have been shown as exaggerated estimates.

If Governor Wolf continues his ridiculous, poorly designed shut-down beyond this weekend, it should be clear to everyone he is a spiteful, vindictive tyrant. A fool who continues to ‘burn down’ the State for political reasons.

Anonymous said...

The TFR is from 12:30 - 5:30. It's kind of like waiting for the cable guy.

Anonymous said...

We certainly have real expert infectious disease experts commenting now. Our local doctors support the notion that opening now with precautions will be OK, as we have more than enough capacity to deal with any new illnesses.

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Anonymous said...

Again, neither politicians or scientists know anything right now beyond some general hunches.
For absolutely sure, every armchair hack commenting here about either their freedoms being limited or wanting everyone to live in a bomb shelter for 12 months knows less than nothing based on their own skewed news sources and personal experiences.

We do not have enough correct data to make smart decisions because we don't have the ability to test enough people for the virus. We don't have a clue on how many people have it or had it. You can't make sweeping assumptions just because you feel fine. There's a good chance you have it/had it and can be carrying the virus. We know that it spreads easily and quickly for a virus. What we don't know, beyond some obvious at risk segments of the population, is how and why this impacts the young and relatively healthy.

Anonymous said...

If only our governor had been elected.

Anonymous said...

New TFR issued for Hagerstown/Thurmont MD. Looks like the King will be relaxing at Camp David for the weekend.

Anonymous said...

"Looks like the King will be relaxing at Camp David for the weekend."

You mean the King that wants to give people their freedom back?