It appears that Governor Tom Wolf has abandoned his "data driven" approach to re-opening our state after his dirigisme has resulted in an unqualified failure, with two million Pennsylvanians out of work and an unemployment system unable to handle the load.
Steve Thode, a retired Lehigh University professor, has performed a valuable public service by crunching the numbers for us. He himself has recently observed how flawed the state system has been. By his calculations, we should be closed until July 11. But then a miracle happened.
Here's a chart on COVID-19 test results for Lehigh/NorCo over the past 4 weeks:
Testing has ramped up considerably over the past four weeks. However, the percentage of tests reported as "positive" has shrunk from 28.5% three weeks ago to only 8.6% this past week.
Now, my fearless forecasts for Lehigh/NorCo:
Note, as an extra special new forecast, I have added Governor Wolf's "data-driven" forecast which is called "Then A Miracle Happened." That forecast predicts, with utter certainty, that the 14-day average of new cases for Lehigh/NorCo will miraculously drop on June 5 - allowing Lehigh/NorCo to go to "Yellow" on the exact date the governor has decreed.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, my two forecasts have converged. My "Weighted" forecast and my "Unweighted" forecast both predict July 11 as the date the 14-day average of new cases will put Lehigh/NorCo in "Yellow."