Friday, May 22, 2020

Pa. DOH Reporting Flawed Data

Atlantic reports that Pennsylvania's Department of Health, along with three other states and the CDC, are combining Covid-19 detection tests with antibody tests in their testing reports. The former will reveal that you currently are currently are infected. The latter reveals whether you were infected previously.

Ashish Jha, Harvard Global Health Institute's Director, explains the difference. "“The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals.”

In Pa., Governor Tom Wolf is relying on this flawed data to determine when counties go from red to yellow.

In addition to The Atlantic report, Spotlight Pa is reporting that the state DOH's data from long term care facilities is also flawed, a point previously made by this blog.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

I’m still waiting for our Governor, or one of his Exalted Rulers, to explain the justification for deeming ‘50 new cases per 100,000’ as the magic door key to move from RED-YELLOW-GREEN. This is a key metric given that numbers have clearly been shown as made-up by our ‘betters’ by the day.

Anonymous said...

Oh good, the loonies are back posting on the thread. As for the article itself, any sane person has realized the data — infections and deaths — has been skewed from the start, but what can we do about it? We are being held hostage by our own government.

Anonymous said...

Every source is different, and Wolf's metrics do not say which source he is relying on. Assume it is the flawed DOH data.
I think Lehigh and Northampton should move to yellow today based in the PSU data. They are well below the 50 new cases per 100K over the last 14 days.

Anonymous said...

PA's DOH hasn't issued correct data since they replaced the Magic 8-Ball with those Chinese computer systems. Coincidence?

Anonymous said...

"They are well below the 50 new cases per 100K over the last 14 days."

Herein lies the deviousness of the target. The target is 50 cases/100K TOTAL over 14 days. For LC + NC (~680,000 pop.), that's about 340 cases or 24/day for the two counties combined.

Both counties are individually in the mid 20s for the 14 day moving average, but that's still twice the magic number if you consider the combined county a "region." Worse, originally, the region included a bunch of counties North of here, not just the LV. Who knows what the "region" is now, since Carbon was some how extracted.

It looks like they pulled a number out of the air (to be polite) and are now so married to it that they can't bring themselves to pull back from it.

Anonymous said...

Onlines are reporting he'll let the whole state out of house arrest on June 5. I doubt his announcement will be accompanied by the apology he owes the state's citizens for using ridiculously fabricated numbers to make deadly decisions about peoples' lives.

LVCI said...

"The latter reveals whether you were infected previously."
One of the concerns reported on a media site was this could be used in the future as an excuse to eliminate someone from getting healthcare (if Obamacare is overturned) as a "preexisting condition". The military is already using this standard for someone trying to join the service. This may play into that as well.

LVCI said...

"The latter reveals whether you were infected previously."
One of the concerns reported on a media site was this could be used in the future as an excuse to eliminate someone from getting healthcare (if Obamacare is overturned) as a "preexisting condition". The military is already using this standard for someone trying to join the service. This may play into that as well.

Anonymous said...

3:53PM Yes, June 5th, but you still have to wear a communist face diaper.

How is it possible to trust the vote count in an election in Pa or anywhere else, when officials can't even count dead people at a nursing home without skewing and screwing the numbers up?

Don't cancel summer! Open the pools!

Bernie O'Hare said...

" The military is already using this standard for someone trying to join the service. This may play into that as well."

That WAS true. Anyone infected with Covid-19 was automatically disqualified. I was going to post a story, but before I could, the military changed it from automatic disqualifier to "we'll see." The concern of the military, and it's justified, is that someone with scarred lung tissue would lack the endurance a soldier needs. I am sorry I do not have precise links but read these accounts in The Military Times.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"communist face diaper"

Lol. Frankly, I get the argument behind the mask, even though its value is limited. If it helps people feel more secure, I have no problem wearing one. I only mind being told I must do it, as opposed to being asked. I do not wear when running, walking or cycling bc it is harder to breathe.

Doc Rock said...

12:46 PM said:

"I think Lehigh and Northampton should move to yellow today based in the PSU data. They are well below the 50 new cases per 100K over the last 14 days."

Incorrect. Over the past 14 days (May 9-May 22) Lehigh and Northampton counties combined have had 925 new cases. That's an average of 66 new cases each day. That translates to 137 new cases per 100K over the past 14 days. Well above the 50 our governor claims is his metric.

Anonymous said...

Where did you get the 137? If there’s been 66 cases per day and Northampton and Lehigh have almost 700,000 residents like I’m seeing as the statistics, that would come out to 9.4 new cases per 100,000 using your 66 cases per day average.

Anonymous said...

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/opinion/2020/05/zrinski-has-the-experience-to-be-a-state-representative-letter.html

Heal Gaea

BLUE BADGER

Anonymous said...

Clarification on my calculation in 2:41 PM yesterday and comment on Doc Rock at 9:13 PM and 7:57 AM.

First, 7:57 AM, the target is TOTAL of 50/100K over 14 days, not average. So take docs total of 925, divide by 7 and you get 132/100K over the last 14 days, again TOTAL. Number depends a bit on what population you use, obviously.

On my comment yesterday at 2:41 PM, I made an optimistic error when I said "Both counties are individually in the mid 20s for the 14 day moving average." I read the wrong columns on my spreadsheet...those are just for yesterday, the moving averages are actually in the mid 30s for both counties, which is consistent with Doc's number.

It sure would be nice if DOH and/or PSU would make the data available in tabular form instead of us having to pick individual daily numbers off of graphs. Maybe they have, but it's not obvious to me from either web site.

Bernie O'Hare said...

9:40, It's kinda' silly to send a LTE praising someone who is running unopposed. I'll have things to say about Zrinski when the time comes. Npw is not that time.

Anonymous said...

Clean up the numbers the PP&L way.

How about taking the TOTAL deaths month by month relative to admissions, at Gracedale for example, from previous years and do comparisons. Records should have all the data necessary to examine whether the death rate has increased to a point to justify taking such serious and universal action.

PP&L does this on your electric bill KWH report. If your monthly bill shows a large increase over the previous years usage it indicates faulty heat pumps or water heaters, ect. Although this will only show there is a problem and further investigation is necessary it doesn't mean you kill all the power to the house making the diagnosis impossible.

Doc Rock said...

10:03 and 7:57

Here's how to do the calculation:

1) Take the combined populations of Lehigh and Northampton counties: 673,000;

2) Divide that number by 100,000. The result is 6.73;

3) Take the 925 new cases reported over the 14 days ended May 22 and divide that by 6.73.
The result is 137 rounded to the closest whole number.

Anonymous said...

Here we are trying to understand numbers that were wrong from the start, proven to be artificially increased, different sums reported in several sources, never reported in context with similar illnesses, never challenged by news media, and are revised, up or down, by the day.

This craziness MUST end.

Anonymous said...

To the ramparts. Get out there as soon as you can. Expose yourself to the virus but stay the f away from me. Your precious freedom is hard to exercise if you and unfortunately others are dead from lifting this horrible yoke.

Anonymous said...

It’s easy. You count the ballots.