Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Why Are Covid Cases Going Up Again?

Numbers cruncher Steve Thode, who has been meticulously following the Covid-19 data, has the latest:

As of [Tuesday], Lehigh/NorCo (combined) have reported 1,685 new COVID cases the last 7 days.

That's the highest 7-Day Lehigh/NorCo total since February 15.

Meanwhile, the state has reported a total 21,233 new COVID cases the last 7 days.

That's the highest statewide 7-Day total since February 18.

According to DoH, an additional 2.6 million Pennsylvanians have been vaccinated since February 18 of which almost 1.6 million are now fully-vaccinated.

Reminds me of Don Henley's Heart of the Matter - "the more I know, the less I understand."

Or, as Sam Elliott (as The Stranger) said in The Big Lebowski, "stupefying."

My admittedly unscientific conclusion is that either the vaccine is less effective than portrayed or that the state is over-reporting the number of people vaccinated. I know I am still waiting for an appointment. 

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

After school sports and other extracurricular activities.

Anonymous said...

Spill over effect from New Jersey and New York.

Both states have higher per capita rates than Florida and will soon have higher rates than Texas.

Anonymous said...

There is still a big problem with false positive test results. Depending on how many amplifications each state chooses to use, the number of positives can significantly increase. Remember, some individuals are also tested more than once.

Anonymous said...

And maybe it's because people are relaxing their safety measures because the "open up wide" crowd" continues to give the impression that we're out of the woods.

The Huntress said...

Presence of more contagious variant and people letting their guard down too quickly are likely reasons. Spring breakers returning from their semi-conscious romps in Florida will push numbers up in college towns as well.

Anonymous said...

Increasing covid rate states occuring in States with Democrat governors. Virus apparently attracted to those States. Either change governorships or relocate. Not that complicated.

Uncle Billy said...


From the PA dashboard (since the onset):

"Total case counts include confirmed and probable cases."

Drop the word "probable" and see if the numbers change.

Anonymous said...

Bars were pretty full during the drinking done to honor the patron saint of Ireland!

Anonymous said...

Quarantine fatigue coupled with Spring weather - people are out and about, not taking the extra precautions either because they're out of practice, or just don't care anymore.

Anonymous said...

Cases aren't really the question or even particularly indicative of anything, and the count is used more to inflame than inform.

Hospitalizations and deaths of otherwise healthy people are first and foremost the most critical measure by far. Then comes a breakdown of morbidity and mortality among those with significant comorbidities. Nursing home deaths are a separate, nearly unrelated category unto themselves given the sealed nature of the environment into which an active contagion was forcibly introduced without the requirement of proper prophylactic measures such as those used to protect other immunodeficient populations such as chemotherapy and AIDS patients.

A bit of discretion in taking a skeptical approach to understanding the motives of those framing the numbers is certainly in order.

Anonymous said...

Bernie I've got a different take - I think people have had it and are going out more and taking the chance.

In the past few weeks I've seen more restaurant seating at full capacity, people sitting at the bar, etc. This will lead to what we're seeing in the numbers of cases.

The Banker

Anonymous said...

As a essential worker,"bottom feeding blogger" you Bernie should be right up there with the vacinators in getting your jabb!

Anonymous said...

I second the opinion of The Banker.

The Lawyer

Anonymous said...

Wear three masks or 0.05% of the population will die and it will be your fault. It's for the children or puppies or spotted owl or something.

Anonymous said...

12.41
"Cases aren't really the question or even particularly indicative of anything, "
Actually they are very important in determining the allocation of resources.
Identification of the virus carriers allows you to protect the population.

Anonymous said...

I found it incredibly easy to get an appointment using the St. Luke’s app. Just take a few question questionnaire and you’ll be directed how/when to make an appointment. In my own social circle, I have noticed that people who are not tech-savvy are having trouble since they do everything over the phone and have less access to information. But if you’re comfortable online it should be easy.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I'm glad you got an appointment. I signed up at St. Luke's twice online and was supposed to receive a confirmatory email. I never did. I know this happened to others as well. I successfully signed up at LVHN over two months ago and have heard nothing. But I might have lucked out in late April. My apartment building is setting up with LVHN for a vaccine for all of us. I signed up immediately.

Anonymous said...

@12.41

Which segment(s) of the population? 25 year olds exposed in a bar may not even get the sniffles -- and certainly won't likely die or even be hospitalized. A non-differentiated count of "Cases!!!" tells us nothing actionable and is akin to yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater if someone lights a cigarette.

The at-risk are best protected by well-known prophylactic techniques in use for decades with all manner of immunodeficient patients -- not by vague propaganda.

To dumb it down, if you're at risk, stay home and keep your distance from those who may be positive. If you're otherwise healthy, recognize that, according to CDC and coroner's data, we have a cumulative total of only about 20 to 25 such COVID deaths in all of Lehigh County, shove wannabe totalitarians out of your way, and go out and live your life to the fullest.

Anonymous said...

Fascinating,I know 4 of them. Small world.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ohare, Wind Gap pharmacy is holding a no appointment vaccine clinic. This weekend 2 days. Your welcome

Anonymous said...

7:58 If you're finished being arrogant, how about some other facts. If you're young and healthy you can still be a spreader. Its unrealistic and selfish to assume everybody else can just stay home. Mask wearing is still imperative until we get at least 70% immunized say the folks professionally trained in the field of contagious diseases. But I guess you're an epidemiologist? Because, if not, take your know-it-all BS somewhere else.

Anonymous said...

https://www.wnep.com/mobile/article/news/local/lehigh-county/wind-gap-community-pharmacy-to-hold-covid-19-vaccination-clinic/523-9cf0b1ef-b85a-4e77-a15c-28455e4a670b

Anonymous said...

So 7:58, you love what's happening in Miami with the youth "living life to the fullest" and bringing the case rates back up in the Valley colleges where they can spread it around further in the community. Hell yeah! no young people have had symptomatic Covid right? None of them have become long-termers either right? Weeell,
but its not that many right? Let's gamble some more with this virus right?

Anonymous said...

@11:58

You're just ranting without data?

Why not just isolate yourself if you're so worried? Why the peculiar need to control the lives of others?

Anonymous said...

@11:51

According to coroner's and CDC data, we've got about 20 or so COVID deaths of healthy, working age people in all of Lehigh County. That's well under traffic deaths. Are you also irrationally insisting on a shutdown of the highways?

Certainly isolate yourself if you're at risk, but how 'bout letting others mitigate their risk in the way they find appropriate?

Why do you have this peculiar fetish for the lockdown?

Anonymous said...

If you are signed up with LVHN try the Dorney site if you have a car. Run very efficiently, much praise and thanks to the workers who were there in the rain yesterday.

Anonymous said...

@3:20/3:24 - Your comments show complete lack of empathy towards other human beings. You're either a very selfish individual or simply lack any medical understanding of what is happening and why. Probably both. Going out to bars and restaurants, and movie theaters, and concerts, and hanging out with friends is something EVERYONE wants back in their lives ASAP. At risk individuals already are isolating themselves which you've steadily repeated - their lives depend on it.

Your mindset comes across as whiny and childish that yourself and others should be able to go about your lives doing whatever you want to do and that the consequences of your actions have no impact on other people.

Anonymous said...

@08:28

No, it's simply that you, like all ignorant, scientifically illiterate lockdown fetishists, have no idea what you're talking about. You've never passed a statistics course in your life, right?

The at-risk should isolate themselves just as the immunodeficient such a chemotherapy and AIDS patents do. The healthy have no reason to do so.

Among the latter group, we have a sum total of only about 20 COVID deaths in all of Lehigh County's nearly 350,000 population -- well under traffic deaths over the same period. Are you also irrationally demanding that we shut down the highways? If not, why not?

Are you collecting handouts from your net taxpayer betters that you are afraid will go away when the lockdown hoax is over? I can't imagine any reason any educated, intelligent person would want to trample the liberties of healthy people, but I can imagine why freeloading parasites would.

But, again, lock yourself in your basement with your cats for as long as you like. No one is trying to tell you not to do so. Just don't tell your educated betters how to live their lives, OK, Karen?

Anonymous said...

8:28 Spot on! You are dealing here with a person, 8:41, who is a name caller. That should tell you a lot about how seriously they should be taken.

Anonymous said...

10:20 Now come on! 8:41 is an educated better!
Their argument reminds me of the old joke about the young bull and the old bull.

Anonymous said...

8.41
"I can't imagine any reason any educated, intelligent person would want to trample the liberties of healthy people,"
Then you have a limited imagination.
You could be a carrier of the virus and not know it.
Feel free to let the simple folks at the CDC how you instantaneously know if you are a carrying the virus.

The Huntress said...

4:09 yes indeed

Anonymous said...

@8:41

Again, in all of Lehigh County, we have about 20 COVID dead among otherwise healthy, working age people. That's far less than auto deaths.

You seem unable to address the issue with facts and statistics.

Why your irrational attachment to the lockdown of people in no danger? And why nothing intelligent to say about protecting the victims of Dick Levine's Nursing Home Holocaust -- you know, the one he unleashed after evacuating his own mother to the safety of a luxury hotel.

More babble, or can you respond with an educated, data-driven assessment?

Anonymous said...

@10:20

You read quite poorly. You missed the part about there being only about 20 otherwise healthy working age COVID dead in all of Lehigh County and the lunacy of locking-down that demographic as opposed to the good sense of isolating the at-risk. Perhaps if you read more slowly you might better comprehend? Might moving your lips while reading help? Or, perhaps, it's simply over your head unless or until you work-through a statistics course and then are able to intelligently grasp the numerical underpinnings of the simple argument?

LVCI said...

Go Google Covid deaths Lehigh County.
Cumulative deaths are 803 as of March 12th 2021. Not 20.

If you have a actual link for your claim of only 20 deaths you need to provide it.

Anonymous said...

No worries LVCI. The self- proclaimed statistics genius doesn't even know that THEY are the 8:41 they are responding to. Too bad I only had one statistics course in college, maybe I'd be as smart as they think they are. He/she is obviously a very frustrated person that sees and hears only what they want and thinks anyone who doesn't agree with them MUST be wrong.

Anonymous said...

LVCI

You read poorly. I said 20 deaths of otherwise healthy working age people. I also said Dick Levine's Nursing Home Holocaust was separate matter. Try to keep up.

The coroner tells us we have 740 claimed deaths and 707 confirmed deaths.

He goes on to point out that 62% of those 707 were in Dick Levine's Nursing Home Holocaust, leaving 268.

CDC tells us that only 6% of COVID deaths are of otherwise healthy people without significant comorbidity (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm) leaving 268 * 0.06 = 16.

Surely you're able to comprehend such simple data and arithmetic.

Bernie O'Hare said...

The question I asked is why Covid-19 cases are on the rise, not whether there's a pandemic. Answers that have actually been responsive posit the following possibilities:
1) vaccine not as efficacious;
2) number of people vaccinated are over-reported;
3) high school sports and other extracurricular activities;
4) spill over from NJ and NY;
5) false positive tests;
6) people relaxing (pandemic fatigue);
7) more contagious variants;
8) Spring breakers;
9) St. Paddy's Day.

These all seem like logical explanations.

LVCI said...

March 26, 2021 at 1:42 AM Anonymous said... LVCI
You read poorly. I said 20 deaths of otherwise healthy working age people... CDC tells us that only 6% of COVID deaths are of otherwise healthy people... Surely you're able to comprehend such simple data and arithmetic.


"Otherwise healthy people".. Dead is dead. The same could be said of the other 780 confirmed deaths. They too were "otherwise healthy" up to the point they contracted the virus. This doesn't take into account many more who suffer long term effects after so-called recovery.

Forget your "simple data and arithmetic" and apply logic. When exterminators wish to eradicate household pests they leave powder or some other compound they will drag back into their colony killing them. Occasionally whole bat colonies have been wiped out by bats bringing back and spreading fungus to their colonies. This pandemic is very similar to that. These animals don't know any better. Humans should. Simple.. mask up when can't social distance and get vaccinated. Too much to ask?

BTW your insults to Levine and other comments doesn't impress anyone.

Anonymous said...

09:18

So you're incapable of an intelligent, data-driven reply that validates your points, but you want to dictate the lives of your educated betters nonetheless?

As to your 2nd paragraph, you clearly have no concept of pre-existing co-morbidities and their pertinence in a morbidity/mortality analysis.

Again, has anyone insisted you not lock yourself in your basement with your cats indefinitely if that is what you believe to be the proper means of mitigating your risk? Of course not. So how 'bout you return the favor, OK, Karen?

Less than 20 otherwise healthy COVID deaths. Clearly, you lack the intelligence and/or scientific education to dispute that on the facts.

Anonymous said...

9:01

You're a bright guy asking good questions, Bernie. Case count could be impacted by any or all of the events you identify. In the end, case count undifferentiated by clinical / demographic categories means very little to nothing -- especially across the prime-of-life categories.

Alas, ignorant, scientifically illiterate lockdown fetishists are inflamed by "Cases!!!!" because they either lack the capability of putting that metric in perspective or, like leftist politicians, intend to use it to propagandize.

I think people like you and me, if we're going to talk about cases, have an obligation to point that out.

Anonymous said...

@LVCI - you're wasting your time arguing with someone who simply doesn't understand anything beyond what inconveniences them. They don't care what reason and logic says, it simply too hard for them to make the effort of putting on a mask and they're really upset that a lot of life's pleasures have been temporarily halted. Their feelings are very hurt and this is a difficult time for them emotionally.

Anonymous said...

11:02

But you can't present a single intelligent data point in rebuttal? Just a lot of psycho-babble?

And yet you believe you know how your educated betters should be forced to live their lives?

Anonymous said...

Everyone should not feed the troll at 1:46 PM. They are quite put out by the sensible restrictions that have been in place. Don't feed it!

LVCI said...

1:46 educated betters is an example of the Dunning–Kruger effect

Anonymous said...

7:03

No, it is simply a description of those who can read the data and demonstrate the tiny threat to the prime-of-life population -- i.e. the only 17 non-comorbidity COVID deaths in all of Lehigh County.

Why so angry that your educated betters refuse to have their mode of living dictated by ignorant scientifically illiterate lockdown fetishists? We certainly don't want to keep you from locking yourself in your basement if you choose...

Anonymous said...

7:02

Troll? Is that what ignorant, scientifically illiterate lockdown fetishists call people with a strong background in STEM who are able to organize and analyze data and present coherent rebuttals to the current leftist ranting?

Do you really have so little self-respect that you'll resort to data-free babbling instead of bettering yourself through education so as to be able to intelligently engage in the debate?

And why so bitter? No one is telling you that you can't wear three masks and hide in your basement with your superstition and ignorance. In fact, we'd greatly prefer if you would. We simply don't want ignoramuses such as yourself telling *us* what to do.

There, that's not so hard to understand, even for you, right, Karen?

Anonymous said...

The reality is that we will never know the total truth about the history of the cause of this pandemic, what the numbers of those who had it or those who actually died from it last year. or what is the cause right now. There are so many options that Bernie acknowledged earlier.

A doctor I know explained it this way. A 90 year old man live across the street from his favorite lunch spot and bar. He is known to be frail from age, have a heart condition, and COPD. But he goes for lunch and a few drinks every other day. One day he goes over and has lunch and a few more drinks then normal (The bar tender says he was drunk. On his way out of the bar and back to his house he crosses the street drunk but still walking. Half way across he has a coughing fit and witnesses see him grabbing his chest. While he stops to catch his breathe A Car going way over the speed limit blows through the stop light and hits the old man. He is seen moving around but when he ambulance took a few minutes to get there but the poor old man was pronounced dead immediately. What was the cause of death, The speeder, the car that ran the light, his COPD, his heart condition, his drunkenness'? So what is the real cause of his death. You can pick any cause but you never will know.

This simple compared to all reality of COIVD when you have so many people inserting personal opinions and influencing numbers of unreality.