Monday, February 01, 2021

NorCo Dem Edge Continues Decline, But R Voters Three Times More Likely to Switch

Prior to the Presidential election, I reported that Republicans had made gains in over where they stood in 2016.

Total registration was 227,315, compared to 211,593 in 2016. Democrats made up 45.0% of this total at 102,436. Republicans accounted for 35.8% with 81,345. 

Since the election, registration has dropped. Weekly records are published online by the Department of State. They show that, as of January 25, registration has dropped to 218,089. Democrats make up 44.9% of this total with 97,958 registered voters. Republicans now make up 36% of the total with 78,609. 

It would appear that Republicans are continuing to cut into the Democratic edge, but I noticed something else that may prove significant down the road.

Since the beginning of the year, 103 previously registered Republicans and 12 independents have become Democrats. At the same time, 37 Democrats and 22 independents have switched to the Republicans party.

It's too soon to reach any conclusion. But at this snapshot in time, it appears that Republicans are three times more likely to switch party than Democrats.  

   

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I believe many Democrats and republicans are switching to independent.

Anonymous said...

R since the 70s. I just switched to D. I'll likely never vote D. But I don't want to be officially associated with Rs. Until open primaries, I think voting for disruptive D candidates in primaries is more effective than voting in R primaries, given the R stronghold where I live.

Anonymous said...

The great re-sorting has begun. Old school blue collar whites moving from Dem to Rep.

I don't think the registration movement is any sort of future indicator though. Just a reflection of past trends if you look at the last decades voting patterns.

How/why the GOP is still clinging to Trump is the main question. His appeal is limited to specific areas and certain states and doesn't have enough appeal in suburbs and cities to carry statewide/national elections. That said, we'll most certainly be seeing more QAnon morons in congress coming from assorted East Bumblefuck districts.

Anonymous said...

It's a whole lot easier to screw the people, err, I mean the pooch, when you are a registered D than an R. I'm speaking as a temp D for the next 18 months; then climbing back on the old populist train. All Aboard!

Anonymous said...

I don't think party affiliations are what they used to be. There are rather stark differences between the tribes, both of which are engaged in ongoing purification rituals. Each party's problem is its increasingly strident nature. I think there are large numbers of party faithful from each team who are embarrassed and ashamed of their party's official direction. I am.

Anonymous said...

"both of which are engaged in ongoing purification rituals"


this is brilliant. i'm gonna steal it...

Anonymous said...

This is in part a reflection of the failure of leadership in the Northampton County Dems committee. They haven't had a full committee meeting in over a year. They have no organized effort to register voters or do any outreach. Their website is consistently out of date. No one knows how much money they have or if there's even a committee treasurer. During the 2020 election the Northampton County Democrats Committee was basically nonexistent. It was the individual campaigns and groups like Lehigh Valley for All that drove all the get out the vote efforts.

Anonymous said...

I believe there are still responsible people with common sense, especially at the local level. I too don't need partisan zealots but rather good people who want to contribute to the common good. With both parties are recruiting mainly young party purists there are still a few people left with common sense.

Anonymous said...

Zirinski will save the Dem party.