Bernie Kieklak is state senator Lisa Boscola's fiercely loyal chief of staff. A few weeks before the election, he told me he had a poll showing his boss would win 71% of the votes in her senatorial dispute with Bonnie Dodge.
Yeah, right! I was born at night, but not last night. The dude was obviously playing me, and I'm too smart for that. I went to college.
Boscola won her race with 72% of the vote.
Last night, Kieklak popped on my blog, and started reciting poll numbers again. This time I'm paying attention.
"Our internals showed that Lisa would have beaten Charlie by 5%. Now that the blood is in the water, stay tuned for '08! It's Lisa's mid-term, she won with 73% of the vote, and she won 63% of the Republican vote! Can you say, "Exploratory Committee" early next year?"
66 comments:
Okay, so I guess that means that Charlie Dent won't run for Snarlen's seat when he retires in 2010 for the great space odyssey of the Strom Thurmond memorial home for Conservative Senators.
Talk about premature! I like Lisa, She has a lot in common with Pat Browne, and sometimes acts like it.
I too, see blood in the water, George Bush's and his Republican party. I see a Democratic Governor from a Blue State winning the nod for the Presidency, and there is no Rendell on the ticket. Look to a centrist from the Midwest my friends and you shall be led from the wilderness and into the Whitehouse! now stop this mindless prattle about our eunuch congressman. If you want to accomplish something, take your time and do it right!
Rising Sun, All good points. Thanks for your comments. I'll say this. I don't think it's premature at all. Last time around, people waited too long. It's nice to know one of the biggies is taking a hard look at a run. I agree it would be no easy task.
Addicted, Many of my posts are "mindless prattle." Maybe now that I've cracked my skull, there will be a slight improvement. But cracked skull or not, when the chief of staff of a state senator who garnered 72% of the votes starts hinting around about a congressional bid, I'm going to pay attention.
Let me make three points.
1) It is not too early to be talking about the 15th CD, especially in view of the failure to arrive at a candidate last time around. Poor Dertinger was forced to wage a last-minute write-in campaign.
2) The comparison of Lisa and Pat Browne is just the kind of horseshit that can blow up right in your face, especially in the Lehigh Valley. Ask Jennifer Mann. Ask Tony Rybak. I don't like nasty personal attacks unless they have a direct bearing on fitness for office. Perhaps that statement is not what you intended. I may have misread you. But please don't go dark on me.
3) All politics is local.
Gotta love a saucy, fun-lovin' party girl like Lisa. For a Dem she kinda blows on the environment, though (gotta green it up a notch, girlfriend). But she's got our backs the rest of the time. Go go Boscola!
LVDem had a post about Lisa's environmental record. It's here.
Well lets leave 2008 to Lisa and Bernie and get back to 2007 and restocking our local pond.
I would certainly like to see someone worthwhile (and who wasn't "dragged into the race") going against Dent. Except for the small number of blog readers like us, we're at least 20 months away from where most people will pay any attention to this contest. Internals showing your dem candidate would win by 5% in a very anti-repub time frame won't necessarily mean anything for '08.
This district is neither solidly red nor blue, so while all politics may be local, what your party is doing in DC will matter here. And in spite of the kissy-kissy/hug-hug "we're going to work together" bull coming out of Washington, either party will do what ever they can to pull the rug out from under the opposition. Partisan politics is alive and well.
But if someone really knows what will be on the minds of voters in the future, please have him/her call me. I looking for some good stock tips.
dg
Good to see someone like her getting ready. It's never too early anymore to get started. It takes two years to build an organization and raise the money for a federal run. This is why we keep losing in the LV, you wait too long. Good going Lisa and good luck. Pssst....I imagine Rob Hopkins is job hunting.
not the point I was making for the rest of us we need to focus on 2007 not 2008. It's time to clean the republicans out of Suburban government. Twps, Boros they have had free run here for too long because we keep looking ahead they currently control close to 70% of the non-urban seats in local government and I think that's far too many for this area.
I never meant anything bad about Lisa Boscola, I was referencing her wooing by Republican party leaders in recent years, and she has worked the opposite side of the aisle, as has Pat Browne. I had forgotten about the alcohol crap, I don't think it is pertinent.
Bernie:
Since I started all this with my "candid" inside-baseball comments to a shrewd political pro, a few observations are in order:
1) ALL LV Dems owe Charles Dertinger their gratitude for proving that Charlie Dent is very vulnerable;
2) Shawn Millan is a friend who I respect and I admire his political abilities -- this is in no way a personal payback for Dent writing a check and giving $500 to Dodge to use in her campaign against Lisa;
3) According to the latest environmental scorecard, Lisa has the 6th HIGHEST environmental record in the 50-member Senate;
4) Dent's "exponential popularity" is a myth, as was evident by his anemic margin against an unknown candidate who was outspent by $1 million -- a 47% positive/27% negative ID hardly makes anyone bulletproof; and
5) I am sure that a lot of other potential candidates smell the same blood in the water -- and since we included all of them in our "exploratory poll," I'm confident that the field will narrow as soon as they see how their numbers match up.
anonymous... absolutely correct. party building is not a once every two year thing. It's ongoing. If we fail to take over the western part of Lehigh County (or at least narrow the gap), candidates running for congress don't have a shot of winning b/c the twp supervisors have teh ability to make life very difficult for the out party.
Dude:
1) I was not asking anyone -- especially you -- to "coronate" anyone as the "perfect" candidate. Go look up the definition of "primary election.";
2) If your mother can beat Charlie Dent in '08, then she's the "perfect" candidate for me;
3) I cannot (yawn) wait for your insightful (yawn) breakdown of other potential candidates (yawn) for Congress in '08... zzzzzzzz;
4) You really think that my friend Shawn Millan will be ready with an arsenal of negatives to launch against Lisa? WOW! What a revelation! I NEVER THOUGHT OF THAT! Oh, me, oh, my!!!;
5) We shared numbers with Dertinger from both our benchmark and tracking polls (as we did with the Rendell and Casey campaigns) and they were very accurate -- but for the CD15 race, we just polled her Mom and Pop and a couple friends and passers-by.... duh???;
6) Blessed are the meek, but that shit doesn't win elections.
My Friend,
I did not insult you. You LIED about my boss and I called you on it. Next time, be careful about repeating gossip you think is "100% certain," because I'll never believe another word you say ever again.
Dear Boys,
Same team. Right?
Addicted, Thanks for your clarification. I really appreciate it.
Anon 10:18 Mega Dittos.
That was, quite possibly, the funniest exchange I have ever read. Can anyone confirm that was actually Senator Boscola's Chief of Staff? If it was, wow. That was hysterical.
Oh, and Rising Sun...relax. When he was talking about your mother, he didn't literally mean your mother. It was a figure of speech. Take a sedative, write a blog entry, whatever. And try not to piss anyone else off...remember, some people are important, some aren't, and some update their blogs 12 times a day....
(And no, Bernie, LV or any of the other old time bloggers out there, that wasn't a shot at you)
Anonymous took the time to also put some "humorous" postings on my board, which I removed. I'm sure I know who they are, but I really don't care. I just think people who want to say a lot should at least let it be known who they are.
Young one, you updating your blog constantly is not a blessing, nor is anyone really lucky for it. And getting worked up easily is not something that is related to youth, it's related to maturity. Last, you're wrong about importance. While it might be good for you to think about Bernie (Lisa) only as "important as you want him to be," I think it's safe to say that he is, in fact, more important than you are now. There are plenty of candidates, staffers and volunteers that are important. Power isn't relative there, buddy. It's a reality. Try to remember that.
To Rising Sun & Bernie Takes No Prisoners and all who may be interested:
Against doctor's orders, I went to tonight's county council meeting. It's an addiction. At the end, two members of council were arguing so loudly I thought it was going to come to blows and actually put myself between them. But these guys were in two different parties.
Now I come back, and I see guys in the same party going after each other. Rising Sun, there was no need to talk about Lisa's negatives simply because you have a beef with her Chief of Staff.
Bernie Kieklak has been involved in government and politics a very long time and knows what he's talking about. And his boss just happens to be the highest vote getter in the LV. And to the anonymous poster who's asking if that really is Bernie, it is indeed. He's into gonzo politics and I love it.
He's right in your face when he thinks you're wrong. Believe me, I know. But he's also a very dedicated and hard worker. He has long been a good government advocate and I'd admire him no matter what his political affiliation.
It's been a great exchange but Bernie deserves a lot more respect than he was shown tonight. He's brilliant. If you doubt that, ask any Republican. They've learned the hard way. Rising Sun, perhaps you are a rising star, but give Bernie some respect. He's earned it. OK? I think you write very well and your blog is terrific. I hope you keep it up. But right now you are making a lot of that 71% very upset with you.
I don't think you're a "lying bastard." You made a mistake. That's OK. I told you last night that Bernie K is fiercely loyal to Lisa, and that's why he went off. I'd much prefer that to someone who went behind my back. I know you were upset. But let it go. Trust me on this. It will pass. You will only hurt your own credibility in your own party if you continue with negative comments at Bernie K after this. So for your own sake, let it pass.
Dude,
1) You are dumber than I thought. You don't even know how to read how the "undecideds" break;
2) Let's compare the numbers we gave you to Dertinger's internal polls -- oh, that's right, he spent all his money on yard signs and couldn't do a poll!;
3) Obviously your "friends on the hill" are as well-connected as you are -- are they pages or political "geniuses" like you who just happen to work in the mail room?;
4) You have "your facts"? You have nothing but 3rd- and 4th-hand information that you are gullible enough to believe and repeat like it's actually your original idea;
5) Tell your mother to run in the primary in '08 so I can personally kick her wrinkled ass;
6) By the way, learn the difference between "your" and "you're" -- stupid people can't spell;
7) I define a "lazy ass" as someone who only managed to help their candidate get 44% of the vote, lazy ass;
8) You lied about Rahm calling my boss and you're (not "your") not even man enough to admit you were wrong -- blame it on those imaginary "sources" who gave you that top-secret info, kidnapped you, and then forced you to post it on your Web site against your will;
9) I've seen rubber turds that have better political instincts than you do;
10) Come back and share once you've won a student council race, Jethro... until then, quit trying to compensate for your staggering incompetence by pretending to know something about what it takes to win elections.
Rising Sun, You see, that's the problem. In the very same comment in which you say "I'm done bad mouthing Bernie K. His boss is a wonderful Senator," you proceed to trash them both. That's not cool.
It's "you're," not your!!!
OH. MY. GOD. Bernie K, you rule. You rule. It's really as simple as that.
Rich, you are a little wanna-be who has tried 12 different ways to get in the door. No one has let you in because you keep running your mouth. Do yourself a favor. If you want respect, shut up and earn it.
And by the way, if you don't care about my opinion, why are you responding to me? Or Bernie K (sorry Bernie, I can't spell your last name)?
Anon 12:02, It must be a Bernie thing. Now if you'll excuse me, Green Dog isn't housebroken and I have to let him out. He just puked all over my computer.
You know what your all right. I'll just shut up now. I'll take my opinion back to my blog and leave this be. Nothing will be accomplished this way anyway. Mr. O'Hare is right that wasn't cool of me to bash them. I don't like them and I stand by what I wrote, but I should just leave this alone. As for anonymous, call me what you will. I have the guts to reveal my identity, you don't, so I guess we all know the truth of things here. As for getting my foot in the door, maybe i've put my foot in my mouth before, and I will again, but I've been in the door and walked right back out of it. As for you, we don't know if you did or not, because we don't even know who you are.
As for this getting so far out of hand though, my fault entirely.
PLEASE, guys - this election's not cold yet.
You're both Democratic Party officials. Bernie O'Hare can take shots at Party folks, even though he's a liberal; he's got no obligations to anybody, and he's at least equal-opportunity (he's gone after Dent and just killed the Greens). You both DO have obligations, BOTH of you, to the party. That means fighting with other party officials of whatever rank in a public forum is not going to be a good idea.
By the way, the Call reads this blog. Want to see the shit you wrote in newsprint?
Save the buckshot for Republicans, or at least save it a week and a half for hunting season.
TO: Bernie O' & Anonymous:
I was the same age (23) as Rising Sun when I started working in the Senate. I've lost more races than I've won. But, I always tried to learn from every defeat. And I am still learning to this day.
I hope he continues to work for Democratic candidates and gives them as much energy and as much passion as he showed tonight. Because they will benefit from his drive and his commitment. Truth is, we need more people like him to fuel the future of our Party.
I stood at a poll with Lisa last Tuesday (from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.) and watched 1200 voters cast their ballots (Lower Naz 1). We counted 9 voters (all day) who were under 24 years old! Only someone like Rising Sun can reach out and connect with those young voters and get them to the polls. If we don't make that connection, you can bet that the Republicans will!
In all the years that I have worked campaigns for Democratic candidates, we have always been outnumbered and outgunned (in terms of volunteers, money, street-level support). Our success in the future depends on having more Rising Suns on OUR side.
We have a message that people want to hear. If we can get that message out to the people who need to hear it, we can accomplish great things together.
Let's do it!
Bernie K, That's a nice way to end this discussion. It shows a lot of class and wisdom. Must be because your first name is Bernie. Green Dog is crying to come back inside. I'll go get him.
Bernie K's right,
We were all jackasses about this (no pun intended) in what is probably a case of someone in between giving me some piece of information that is two years old. We let this get out of hand. It's over now and I think we're alright with it.
I can tend to be a rough fighter, but if you think that I was rough here, you should see me talk about Dent. I tend to wear my heart out there on my sleeve, which is why I make rash decisions like quitting the HDCC and end up at home working on an underdog race. That's just how I am. Hopefully in the long run it doesn't do too much damage. If it does though, at least I won't have to sleep wondering "what if." That's a nice consolation.
Good luck Bernie K. If your boss enters, despite my more angry comments, I wish you the best. My first race was an internship for O'Brien and I've been dying to see this seat back blue since. I hope we finally do it.
Rich
Rich:
You've earned my respect and I look forward to working with you in the future.
Please e-mail me at:
bkieklak@pasenate.com
You showed me what you're made of. Next time I'm in Bethlehem, we need to sit down so I can pick your brain. We'll make Bernie buy us both lunch!!
Way ahead of you, there, Bernie. Shawn Millan has already promised to make his own special sandwiches for us and will let me borrow Mr. Bigglesworth, too.
Bernie:
I'm very proud of Shawn. He is one of the TOP political operatives in the entire state.
In the face of a national Democratic landslide, where 4 PA Republican incumbents lost, he saved Charlie from that same fate. No small feat.
He played the cards he was dealt and won a BIG hand! THAT'S how damn good he is. I knew Dent's numbers were soft when he started running those negative TV ads against Dertinger. It was a risk, because it did drive up Dent's negatives, but you can't argue with the results.
I agree completely with your assessment. He's very good. But I'm not going to his underground lair. Look what he did to poor Mustafa!
You know, the shame of it was, while he was running those ads I was just sitting at the desk everyday wishing we had say, even $100k..... Shawn's a smart guy. As I've said, I dislike his clients, and sometimes his strategies bother me, but that is why he gets paid....
Not a fiery post since 2:30 last night? Wowza...guess you guys are sleepin' off a politically-fueled hangover of sorts. Ds are so emotional!
The comments column was an exciting read this morning. But too bad you delte so many comments, Bernie...makes it tough to piece the storyline together...like missing every other episode of Desperate Housewives.
Woulda loved to have read the comments you & others were blasting back at, Bernie. Why all the deletes...seems a little disingenuous or something, no?
I still think Lisa can & should do better than 6th place on the environmental scorecard...if that's really her score. Where'd you get that info, anyway, Bernie? Doesn't seem to jive with the link you provided yesterday.
Nature Boy,
My man, I deleted NOTHING. If you look at the deleted comments, they were deleted by the person who posted them, Rising Sun. I try not to be a monitor cop. I do delete spam when I see it and will occasionally delete a post that has nothing to do with anything, but I don't even like doing that.
I like as many opinions and ideas as is possible.
And Nature Boy, There are two Bernies posting here, which makes it even more confusing. One is me. The other is Bernie takes no prisoners, Lissa's chief of staff.
As to why Rising Sun deleted many of his remarks, you'll have to ask him, bippy.
I do updates or corrections on posts from time to time, and will change a spelling or grammatical error on a post. But I don't alter something once I've written it, no matter how much flak it draws.
I was going to post as comment pointing that out last night when I saw all the deletions, but figured I would wait to see if anyone was confused.
I see, said the dumb nature boy, as he re-read "This post has been removed by the AUTHOR" (as in author of the COMMENT) and saw.
I guess Rising Sun is perhaps then the disingenuous one. Ah, the fickleness of youth. The kid's half my age & no doubt ten times brighter...& with a fire in his belly (plus way too many carbs, by the looks of the photo) like he apparently has, I'll let any perceived disingenuity (is that even a word?) slide for now.
I was, however, bright enough to realize there were two Bernies posting last night.
But back to Lisa's environmental scorecard...with only a 50% favorable green rating that puts her in 6th place among all PA state senators? You sure 'bout that, Bernard?
Just so everyone knows, I removed them for the sake of not having them sit in cyberspace as cannon fodder for anyone who hates Lisa. No need to let old wounds fester here. I'd hate to see anything bad I wrote about her end up blowing up in her face. With that said, I removed 90% of what I wrote.
Bernard...as in "Bernie takes no prisoners."
Holy Shit dude! Crazy ass stuff going on round here! Bernie K, feel free to be in contact with me. Admittedly, I'm critical of Boscola from time to time but feel that between you and Kurt Derr, you wouldn't be working for her if she wasn't great or paying you well... and I know from experience it isn't the latter. lvdem0815@hotmail.com
Rising Sun, take it from a fellow who is also under 30... doing start popping off until you've established a reputation as a reasoned thinker. I pop off with the best of them, but good lord man, you don't take on a COS your (not you're) first week in the sphere.
for teh record, I went back and looked at the environmental records again. Boscola's 50% number was for the 0506 legislative session. For her career, she has a 62% voting record on the environment. The highest career score goes to Connie Williams with 76%. Boscola, based on the numbers that I see, would be 6th in career numbers at 62%. I will do a good write up on this over the weekend, pointing out some of the trends and details that I saw.
Hope that clarifies things.
LVDem, I appreciate you looking into this data, which confirms that both you and Bernie K are right. The percentage is what it is, but it's still #6. Got that, Nature Boy?
Someone called me to task a few weeks ago about all these groups and their percentages. In many cases, it's a crock. I'm inclined to agree.
I hope Rising Sun continues to blog. He's got a good mind and writes quite well. And to be honestm I thought his Dent-Dertinger analysis was the best of many that I've read. He may have had some of his facts wrong, and he got hit with a sledgehammer for it. But it was basically solid work, from what I could see.
Bernie K is a frickin' genius. Some of you have commented and have even sent me emails back channel worried sick about what might happen if the press gets ahold of this debate. My answer is so the frick what? Healthy dialogue is good for democracy. Sometimes it beomes a circus.
So Lisa has a fiery COS who is not afraid to defend against what he perceives as an insult. That's a bad thing? That's what I'm missing.
I watched Jim Hickey turn around in a council meeting and very publicly tell a member of the public to go f--- himself, and I'm pretty sure that hit the press. I heard Hickey tell a MC that flying monkeys wopuld spew from his ass before a new prison was built at any location besides Easton, and every word hit both newspapers.
I believe the editors uttered a few 'tsk, 'tsks, but that was about it. He was colorful passionate, and pushed his message all the way. And when it was time for him to go, both papers lamented his loss.
It's gonzo politics. Only a few can practice it. Hickey, Angle, and Bernie K are all gonzo guys. We need more of them, not less.
People tend to love when political types are "real." They see enough scripted tv, they don't need it from political faces.
Got it, Bernie O...6th place...woo-hoo! But I don't believe it. Sixth place is not where Go-Go-Boscola CURRENTLY rates on the senate's environmental scorecard...not according to the link Bernie K provided earlier in this comments column. And even if it were, who the hell would boast of a 6th place ranking, anyhow? That's pretty lame...'specially for a chick dem.
The environment...its just our life support system...land & water & air...who needs that stuff, anyway?
I hate to have to get the last word in on this, but...
A 60% environmental voting record is better than 44 other Senators!
The time has come for "environmental fundamentalists" to tone it down a little and be willing to compromise a little when it comes to protecting jobs in a coal state like Pennsylvania.
We can easily have ZERO PERCENT emissions in Pennsylvania. But, we will have ZERO JOBS, as well. Is that what you really want?
I don't buy that Bernie K... good environmental policy leads to good economic policy. Cleaner technology means cleaner, higher paying jobs.
Sadly, where I'll probably agree with you is that it isn't going to happen overnight and that it's an uphill battle b/c the coal industry and others like it are so dominant in Harrisburg.
Personally, if Lisa Boscola would become a champion for environmental concerns (kind of like Connie Williams), I'd start backing her today.
"Environmental fundamentalist!" Quite a label. What degree of concern for the environment does one need to have in order to wear that label, BK?
I own a few guns & I've been know to hunt deer. I'm also a registerd democrat. So does that automatically make me a "bleeding heart liberal?"
Please let me know what percentage of shit in the environment I should compromise on, accept & tolerate. Thanks!
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