Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Dems Have 12-Point Lead in House Races, Thanks to Women

From Quinnipiac University: With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 - 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Women back Democratic candidates 57 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats. White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 - 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 - 23 percent.

The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 - 33 percent.

American voters disapprove 66 - 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 - 30 percent.

Voters are divided on President Donald Trump's nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court as 40 percent say the U.S. Senate should confirm the nomination and 41 percent say the Senate should not confirm the nomination.

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American voters disapprove 56 - 36 percent of the way the media covers President Trump, and disapprove 65 - 32 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.

Voters trust the media more than Trump 54 - 34 percent to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans believe Trump more 75 - 16 percent, the only listed group to side with the president. White voters with no college degree and white men are divided.

The media is an important part of democracy, 71 percent of voters say, while 21 percent say the media is the enemy of the people. This is the strongest support for the media since the Quinnipiac University National Poll first asked this question in April.

From July 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am woman, hear me roar!

Unknown said...

Hi Bernie, Good news but I think you mean 12 in the headline?

Anonymous said...

In 2016 Quinnipiac had Clinton up 7 points nationally. They had her winning PA, NC, and FL. How did that work out?

Anonymous said...

You can tell the smart Republican women, they always register as democrats and steal the opposition.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Kim, thanks for pointing out my error, which I fixed.

Bernie O'Hare said...

4:29, Don’t know where you got your facts. What I have indicates that Q picked Clinton in some battleground states, but said the race was too close to call. By the way, Clinton did win the popular vote. https://www.google.com/amp/www.courant.com/politics/hc-quinnipiac-poll-fail-20161116-story,amp.html

Bernie O'Hare said...

Let me add that 12 points can disappear quickly.

Anonymous said...

Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote, if not for the electoral college we would have a fake liberal president, instead of a fake conservative one.

Anonymous said...

How many polls correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Presidential Election? Was Quinnipiac one of those who predicted the 2016 Presidential Election accurately? How seriously should I be taking another hypothetical poll?

Bernie O'Hare said...

Your question concerning Quinnipiac has been asked and answered above. I agree that a poll this far out does not mean much, but should be a cause for concern within the GOP. Dismiss it at your peril.

Anonymous said...

Colossus/Guardian 2020 because i don't trust people to run things anymore

Trumpster said...

I recall in October 2016, Hillary had a 99% chance of winning also......

Anonymous said...

Why should something that admittedly does not mean much be such a great cause for concern? If the GOP are to have such great cause for concern does this also mean that the Democrat Party runs the risk of being overconfident as a result of belief in polling data that does not mean much - again? Will more widespread exposure for Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and her most interesting policies help or hinder the alleged Blue Wave that is to be arriving in 2018?

Anonymous said...

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is the cutting edge of the Democratic Party today...

Anonymous said...

Really? Lumping every Democrat with one candidate? That's like saying every Republican is an egotistical, uncaring, lying, pussy grabbing, mistress paying, self-serving, pee-pee loving puppet of Putin.

Moontrance said...

BO agrees that a poll this far out "does not mean much". Thus this post is nothing more than a continuation of his hate spewing towards our President. He thinks if he throws enough shit against the wall some of it might stick. But in this disbarred, unloved and sad little loner's life the stink has just stayed with him.

Anonymous said...

Generic poll, right? Easy to pile up numbers in certain areas. These races are fought locally. That was Hillary's mistake.

Anonymous said...

The shit show that is the Trump presidency will eventually reveal enough shit on it's own that'll stick to the wall and bring it down all by itself.

Anonymous said...

"Generic Poll"... I'd like to see the "gene pool" of these dem's... where do I get that VJJ costume again for the march on washington next year and some hair dye?

Anonymous said...

I wouldn’t trust congressional polling done on a national basis. Their sample size indicates only a look at most three voters per congressional district if the sample was evenly distributed. It should have been because congressional districts are equal in population. To draw an absolute conclusion after interviewing three voters in a congressional district is crazy. This polling outfit has not shown any corrections from methodology used in the presidential race. I would never bet the house on their conclusions. Trump’s campaign dismissed several states and forfeited them to his opponent. I think the inclusion and heavy weighting of those particular states threw off any legitimate forecasting by pollsters.

Anonymous said...

Authoritarian TRump has barred a reporter form the White House. She asked questions he did not like. Yeah, that is democracy big timer. Must be proud.MAGA

Anonymous said...

America simply does not require purveyors of fake news. So, yes, the party is over for some people. Time to peddle the propaganda in Cuba or something.

Anonymous said...

Great post. Quinnipiac is always balls-on. They had Hillary beating Trump by 7 points. They might have been closer if they polled Poles. Again, Great post.

Anonymous said...

Agree with anon 5:56. We only need the state approved media from Fox News. the other outlets are communist inspired. All Hail tRump!