Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Is Ott Muller Race in Dead Heat?
The last few weeks I am feeling a swing happening in Lehigh county. The feel is that Wes Barrett is really strong and has the resources, Muller came into his own and is actually a good campaigner and Creighton is wounded. The Rs got lazy this summer and didn't expect the Ds to try too hard. We do have a history of poor fundraising and field efforts. Aside from Woodman, the Rs did a terrible job fundraising. They have knocked on doors but their pool of resources is not deep enough to run a campaign where the Ds have raised money.
I am told that Fleck has this really non scientific polling methodology that is actually decent in predicting outcomes. He has a credible volunteer call likely voters (voted in last two municipal elections) and simply asks how they will vote. Last week, it was a 49-49 tie. Fleck did the same thing for NorCo in the Exec primary and it was spot on.
From what I understand, about 1,800 people were called, including 15% more Republicans than Democrats. This is because Democrats have a poor turn out in these off year elections. So if Fleck can increase turnout just one or two points, Muller wins.
Party boss Wayne Woodman figured this out months ago. It's why no Republican is running for Allentown City Council or Mayor. It's why nobody challenged Geoff Brace or Dave Jones in Allentown. He is willing to sacrifice Allentown on the altar of Ott.
But then Michael Donovan decided to run for Mayor as an Independent. And Pawlowski decided to run for Governor. In order to be a viable candidate for Governor, he needs a convincing victory in Allentown, and has to work hard to get out the vote against Donovan.
And, of course, most people are disgusted by extremist Republicans in the U.S. House and have a habit of taking that out on Republicans in local races. Ott happens to be one of those extremists himself.