Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Is Ott Muller Race in Dead Heat?

One of my many spies, and they're everywhere, sent me this report from the Lehigh County campaign trail.

The last few weeks I am feeling a swing happening in Lehigh county. The feel is that Wes Barrett is really strong and has the resources, Muller came into his own and is actually a good campaigner and Creighton is wounded. The Rs got lazy this summer and didn't expect the Ds to try too hard. We do have a history of poor fundraising and field efforts. Aside from Woodman, the Rs did a terrible job fundraising. They have knocked on doors but their pool of resources is not deep enough to run a campaign where the Ds have raised money.

I am told that Fleck has this really non scientific polling methodology that is actually decent in predicting outcomes. He has a credible volunteer call likely voters (voted in last two municipal elections) and simply asks how they will vote. Last week, it was a 49-49 tie. Fleck did the same thing for NorCo in the Exec primary and it was spot on.

From what I understand, about 1,800 people were called, including 15% more Republicans than Democrats. This is because Democrats have a poor turn out in these off year elections. So if Fleck can increase turnout just one or two points, Muller wins.

Party boss Wayne Woodman figured this out months ago. It's why no Republican is running for Allentown City Council or Mayor. It's why nobody challenged Geoff Brace or Dave Jones in Allentown. He is willing to sacrifice Allentown on the altar of Ott.

But then Michael Donovan decided to run for Mayor as an Independent. And Pawlowski decided to run for Governor. In order to be a viable candidate for Governor, he needs a convincing victory in Allentown, and has to work hard to get out the vote against Donovan.

And, of course, most people are disgusted by extremist Republicans in the U.S. House and have a habit of taking that out on Republicans in local races. Ott happens to be one of those extremists himself.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

One day Fleck is a quack, the next a genius???

Please!! Muller is not campaigner, porn star moustache aside. he will go down despite your wishes. The last time Fleck ran the numbers, Glenn Reibman was winning the primary.

Keep reaching O'Hare, keep thinking you can shape the election in your own image.

Scott Ott is a new face and leader. Muller is an old hack that can only run something when he gets double digit tax increases.

Anonymous said...

Donovan MAY get 10%.....and that is a huge may.... I see him getting anywhere between 5-7%

Bernie O'Hare said...

He will increase the turnout.

Anonymous said...

One volunteer polled 1800 people... What's not to believe?

Anonymous said...

"And, of course, most people are disgusted by extremist Republicans in the U.S. House ..."

This is technically true, like "you can keep your doctor." In reality, recent polling shows 43% of voters identify with the Tea Party. That's more than identify with Obama anymore.

Nice try, though. How about getting back to the race baiting? I have another ten spot riding on it. I've got to have it by Friday. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Sheriff Rossi will carry Muller!

Anonymous said...

I don't like Muller or Ott, but I'm rooting for Muller as Ott would be disastrous.

That being said, Ott said something a few weeks ago and he's right - "Old people will decide this election."

Old people don't give a crap about anything except themselves, and Ott saying the right things about taxes will will their vote.

Anonymous said...

"Old people don't give a crap about anything except themselves, and Ott saying the right things about taxes will will their vote".

Wow, so much thanks for the generation that got us through World War II and the Cold War. The generation who led the fight to end discrimination in the schools. The generation who continues to pay property taxes in Allentown while they haven't had kids in the School District for many years.

So much for thanking the generation before us. 9:39 I bet you did nothing for this country and milk the social programs that us working people pay for.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Ott has demonstrated pretty clearly how much he cares for lehigh County seniors. "Have they no family? Have they no church connections, no neighbors that love them?" he asked when someone wanted money for meals on Wheels. According to Ott, the ""Chinese communist government is fronting us money to feed 85 year old women in Lehigh County."

But I cannot say he would let 85 yo women starve, I'm told.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"In reality, recent polling shows 43% of voters identify with the Tea Party"

They don't "identify" with the tea party. read the poll, and pay attention to the election results next week.

In reality, the negative view of the tea party has doubled over what it was in 2010.

http://www.people-press.org/2013/10/16/tea-partys-image-turns-more-negative/

Anonymous said...

Donovan in the election is lucky to get 500 votes. It all comes down to lack of a vote changing issue.

Only his close in core cares about the sewer deal. Not many understand the waste plant issue and "community action" isn't a vote getter.

A long shot govenor race isn't critical to voters either.

Taxes and clean streets trump soft issues.

Anonymous said...

I heard Scott used to be a driver for Meals on Wheels and he encouraged people to donate money to the organization when he did a Gunther interview last May.

Because Ott questions (just questions and abstains from the vote for other reasons) giving money to an organization because they have a million dollar surplus, he wants to see old people starve???

I see Bernie is using the same scare tactics that the unions are using with their membership when the D's don't have a good record to campaign.

Muller = status quo and more tax hikes in the future. He'll let seniors starve because they will have to choose between paying their tax bills or buying food.

Anonymous said...

Ott's not perfect. But Muller will orchestrate a traditional collision of good intentions and unintended consequences and make things much harder on the county's working poor. Ott's the lesser of two evils.

Anonymous said...

This T party trip will soon fade. They will all look like fools. Hear about the current tax dilemma in lower Macungie. HA HA they now gotta finda way to pay the piper. Hey T party, run the current lower Macungie leaders outta town. Otts poll numbers are tanking.

Anonymous said...

Dead heat? Ott. Donovan 10%. We'll know next week. Always glad when election season is over. - nlv

Bernie O'Hare said...

NLV is Dave Najarian, and was one of the original Gang of Four who teamed up with Ott. What a shock that he has picked him to win.

Anonymous said...

Should I be surprized that you took my wholly neutral comment and ascribe some personal meaning in an attempt to demean me with flowery terms of endearment. I have not picked anyone, just pointing out that predictions, anyones, mean little, which I learned in loosing a personal bet with you when Romney lost. I thought he would win. There was no other meaning in my comment. i made no predictions here or elsewhere in this election, so your comment about an unobjective prediction by me is wholly wrong. Next question, do you have a problem with my moniker that you point out every time I use it. Regular readers to this blog and mine are familiar with my name and moniker, yet you feel some impulse each time i use ut in some odd attempt to out me or something. I frankly prefer the moniker cause I'm not hiding my identity from most on this blog but also rather not splatter my name needlessly with all the hate and racist bs which spills out in a large number of your comments. I'm also guessing by the way you lash out at folks, like me, who tend to disagree with you, you'd rather we not comment or question you view on this blog. So I won't. You have become much less informative much more tabloid in recent times anyway. Nlv

Anonymous said...

On re-reading, and to be fair, you might have thought I predicted to to win, my intent was only to highlight the predictions made by others here. -nlv

Anonymous said...

And I meant the comments by those who comment here, not yours in the literal sense. I will go away now. -nlv

Bernie O'Hare said...

Nlv, aka David Najarian, in the week before an election, this blog attracts a lot of readers who do not ordinarily follow politics, and are trying to make a decision. Identifying you as one of the people who ran as a slate with Ott two years ago is for their benefit.