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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

What King Edwin Doesn't Want You to Know About Those Crimes Stats

Everywhere he goes, King Edwin tells the huddled masses, "Don't worry. Be happy." He confidently tells them crime is down 20%. He glosses over all those pesky unsolved murders.

Here's what he's failed to tell them; during his four years in office, the number of unsolved crimes has steadily risen. Would you even bother reporting a criminal act if you knew it would be ignored by the police?

Using the same Pennsylvania State Police data relied on by Allentown leaders, it's clear that law enforcement is increasingly unable to investigate or prosecute criminal activity. Let's look at the facts since 2000, when state police started collecting data.

2000: 13,205 of 17,445 reported crimes are solved (76% success rate)

2001: 13,035 of 17,277 reported crimes are solved (75% success rate)

2002: 13,385 of 17,297 reported crimes are solved (77% success rate)

2003: 12,587 of 18.025 reported crimes are solved (70% success rate)

2004: 7,194 of 18,304 reported crimes are solved (39% success rate)

2005: 6,487 of 18,366 reported crimes are solved (35% success rate)

2006: 6,123 of 19,072 reported crimes are solved (32% success rate)

2007: 5,822 of 17,383 reported crimes are solved (33% success rate)

2008: 5,361 of 16,794 reported crimes are solved (31.9% success rate).

Allentown's finest had a remarkable record between 2000 and 2003. That suddenly changed in 2004, and has continued throughout King Edwin's four years in office. It's what happens when police officers are stretched too thin, and officials rely on goofy blue surveillance cameras instead of boots on the ground.

Do you want a Mayor who will allow this terrible record to continue?


Anonymous said...

Why the big drop from 70 some percent to 30 some percent? I am no King Ed fan but I do respect the APD. Perhaps there was a change in the data provided to the state police. It seems such a drastic one year change could be explained by a change in formula.

Anonymous said...

Bernie thanks for the info about this NO-GOOD Mayor Ed. I will pass it along to all my voter friends. You are better than the morning Call. DO NOT RE-ELECT this GUY!

Anonymous said...

These are the four guys who we should not vote for:
ED Pawlowski
Julio Guirdy
Walter Felton
Mike Damore

All of them are no GOOD Liars!

Anonymous said...

Hey anon 1:01, why leave Schlossberg out of your list. he was part of the herschman smear robo-calls.

Is this an even lower Schlossberg tactic to dump on his comrades? Hoping to cop even more votes.

These guys feed on each other.

Anonymous said...


No one I know really believes that any crime has or is falling in the city. Therefore they view with some suspicion the city provided information that is reported un-audited by the state police.

Scott Armstrong

Anonymous said...

Scott, Why would Mayor provide incorrect numbers related to crime in allentown. Did he not get a degree from Moody Bible College.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Anon 12:46, The drastic change in one year might very well be the result of drastic changes in the size of the APD, brough about during Afflerbach and continued by pawlowski.

Anonymous said...

everybody uses stats to prove a point. Ed wants to get re-elected. Bernie doesn't want him re-elected.

Stats are only as credible as the motives of those that use the stats.

Me, I don't trust any of them.

Anonymous said...

Why would a citizen in Allentown take the risk of reporting a crime.Waiting for the A.P.D. to arrive.Knowing the neighbors see the police at their house.If the police make an arrest the fear of going to continued hearings.Why report the crime at all.If you do not report the crime rate goes down and the Mayor can use that stat in re-election.

Anonymous said...

Chris Cassey wrote:
Chris Casey said...
If you want to attend my 5 minute seminar, "How to make political enemies in under five minutes" stop by City Council chambers tomorrow night and watch me during courtesy of the floor.
The City Parks department has really pissed me off, and City Council is going to hear about it.
Maybe I could make up a big cardboard check and try and pass it off before speaking?

4:54 PM

What Happened?

Bernie O'Hare said...

That will be tonight.

Anonymous said...

Perception is often reality. And the perception of Allentown is that it's a very dangerous place, and certainly the last place where anyone in the LV would venture after dark. I know I speak for many safety-conscious baseball fans who are glad Coke Park is barely in A-town; not requiring a death defying drive after games.

LVCI said...

Tonight's Meeting CANCELLED

See ya all after the election.. eh?

ironpigpen said...

Anon 11:18

Sadly, what you say is truth that many will want to discredit

Bernie O'Hare said...

LVCI, The City's Home Rule clearly provides that city council must meet at least twice monthly, and during evening hours. "Council shall hold a regular meeting at least twice each month in the evening on a day and place as the Council may prescribe by rule."

Althouh council may cancel a meeting, a second meeting must be rescheduled and hel this month or the council is in violation of the home rule charter.

Northampton County recently had to cancel a meeting for lack of a quorum, but a second meeting had to be scheduled for this month to comply w/ the Charter.

I have called the city clerk and am aiting to learn when the meeting is being rescheduled.

Anonymous said...

God Bless Mayor Pawlowski!

LVCI said...

"Council shall hold a regular meeting at least twice each month in the evening on a day and place as the Council may prescribe by rule."
Bernie.. maybe your right.

Rumor has it they might be meeting after all..
... tonight: Citizens Bank Park: 8:07PM

Just show up. Council will be the ones with 'Dodgers' written on them and give everyone who shows up a weenie.


Anonymous said...

"Why the big drop from 70 some percent to 30 some percent? I am no King Ed fan but I do respect the APD. Perhaps there was a change in the data provided to the state police."

if i'm not mistaken, there's actually been a change in what qualfies as a resolved v. unresolved crime, as tracked by the PSP. this doesn't mean allentown is safer or unsafer, just that a data comparison such as this might not indicate what you think it indicates.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Can you tell us what this change is, and why unresolved crime has continued to increase under King Edwin's reign?

advhanser said...

After tonights debate, my vote is for .............. Ed Pawlowski.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Thank you, Mrs. Pawlowski.

advhanser said...

Tony Phillips was so negative, he tryed to come across as a outsider but has been on councial for the past few years and has not offer any vision. What has he done on councial that would make him a good Mayor?

advhanser said...

Tony lacks vision, way to negative.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I don't know. I have this silly weakness for people who tell the truth as opposed to those who are trying to pretend everything is beautiful.

advhanser said...

I think you hitch you horse to the wrong wagon.

Anonymous said...

when Paloser sends his slick Madison avenue mailers and starts the robo-calling, even J.C. Himself will vote for hizzoner and ingore the facts.

Not enough people read the blogs, the mcall is dying and phillips has been dead for weeks. Too bad hershman or varkcony did not get him one on one - - - game over!

The GOP could have had fun with play and pay, firemen overtime, etc - where are the mailers, billboards, etc. GOP is also dead in atown. Hail to the king paloser

advhanser said...

You are correct. The GOP did not put up a viably canidate.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I can see how Pawlowski would appeal to someone who uses words like "viably" and claims Tony is "to negative." Are you writing Pawlowski's news releases?

advhanser said...

Viably: vivid; real; stimulating, as to the intellect, imagination, or senses: a period of history that few teachers can make viable for students.

Anonymous said...

"a period of history that few teachers can make VIABLE for students"

"the GOP did not put up a VIABLE candidate"


Bernie O'Hare said...

I think that's what he meant.

LVCI said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
LVCI said...

I decided to check into this a little more deeply.

Here's what I came up with: Allentown's Mayoral Debate: More

Bernie O'Hare said...

LVCI, I have responded to the points you raise on your blog. I have gone back to check beth and Easton unsolved crime in 2004. Now if the way stats were maintained changed in 2004, I'd see a big change there too, like I did in Allentown. But I did not see that.

It may be that the PSP did change the way it does things and only A-town followed it in 2004, but I don't know what to say without more solid information.

LVCI said...

I've UPDATED to reflect that.
Depends whether you use State Police Stats OR the FBI's apparently