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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Does Trump Win Threaten GOP Edge in NorCo?

Northampton County has a GOP Exec and a 7-2 Republican advantage on County Council. But with Donald Trump's election as president on November 8, will the worm turn?

Historically, that's what has happened when a Democrat has been in control at the White House. In past municipal races, Republicans have swept Council. Four years ago, Republican John Brown was elected Executive, too.

An argument I often hear is that this is a reaction to whatever is happening, or more precisely not happening, in Washington.

Next year, five Council at-large seats and the Executive position will be up for grabs. Republicans will have been in control of the House, Senate and Presidency for nearly a year. The honeymoon will be over, and resentments will be building.

So believe it or not, Trump's election might be good news for County Democrats.

The problem County democrats will still face is a missing party structure. They are hopeless while Lee Snover has built a GOP machine          

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well Bernie. The GOP garnered more votes for Trump than the Democrats did for Clinton. This is despite the urban populations in Easton and Bethlehem.

Seems to me that it may not be a definitive change, given how the Democrats ran a liar, criminal and a candidate that openly took bribes for President, but it should tell the Democratic leaders to run a better class of candidate than what they had on the ballot.

Bernie O'Hare said...

You are comparing a presidential to municipal race. Completely different animals.

This time next year, we'll know. I do know that had Hillary won, Brown and the 5 Rs in at-large seats would be easily re-elected. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Over the year, as resentment builds against Rs, some Dems who got the message could succeed on a county level. Not a guy like Werner, who is completely out-of-touch with the D base. McClure may or may not be interested, and would be a far better messenger for local Dems.

It could be that America will love Trump and the Rs.

Anonymous said...

Hate to rain on your Morganelli inspired love train for MaClure but a few years ago you had it right. The absentee councilman could barely win his own district race. Fact is both Werner and McClure are no goes for the Dem's victory hopes next year.

That is why the Party elites will want both of them to be in the race.

Bernie O'Hare said...

There are no party elites among NC Dems. There is no real party structure. That's where Rs have an edge. McClure became a very inspired member of Council after Brown won, and he has managed to achieve two victories in a mixed district. I admit that both can be attacked, but so can Brown. It will depend on the national scene, if the past is any indication.

Anonymous said...

Don't see either McClure or Werner in the picture, at least as viable for Executive. McClure barely won when Dem's voted in his District and wisely decided not to run last time he would have been neaten badly and not even in the mix for Executive. Werner did beat incumbent Dowd to win his seat but has faced no real completion. So not sure either could beat Brown county wide.

I know you hate Brown but did any Democrat that ran four years ago even come with five hundred votes of any Republican for Executive or county council? I doubt it.

Anonymous said...

The country Dem got exactly what they deserved last week.
They are ineffectual loudmouths.
Fug 'um.

Ovem Lupo Commitere said...

I can't help but think of the expression that "all politics is local." Things can always change, but I think a lot would have to change in a short amount of time in the local political culture for the Dems to be able to flip NorCo next year.

Anonymous said...

Four more years of the clueless Brown administration is like four more years of the Obama useless club. I think any reputable "business man", either within or out of the Republican party can challenge the non-transparent Brown. The Republican establishment in NC has got to be challenged locally, just like nationally, and maybe we can bring in some type of openness, transparency and true entrepreneurship. The John Brown/Cathy Allen freak show, with their supporting cast of pompous allies on council, got to goooooooooo!

Anonymous said...

John Brown..The Clown..is on thin ice..IF..the county D's get serious about that position and the council seats also up for grabs. Who will they champion? Tail between their legs at the moment but that could change. Time will tell.

Anonymous said...

The only Dems who could flip the county are Boscola or Panto. Other leading Dems like Freeman and Samuelson are happy in Harrisburg or happily retired like Seyfried and Grucela

Anonymous said...

Slim pickings for the Dem's but Brown is vulnerable on many issues. Serious thought required by the party or maybe Hayden takes a crack at things from the other side of the aisle.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Panto would never flip the county. He is dishonest and did himself in with his use of sock puppets. The commuter tax also makes him unpopular.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"John Brown..The Clown..is on thin ice"

That was true after his first year, but not anymore. He will be tough to beat.

Anonymous said...

This insipid lament about "party structure" being necessary for victory is an anachronistic sentiment voiced by the delusional who do not understand campaigns. There has not been an effective county party structure in Northampton County since Justin Jirolanio...and he's been dead a long, long time. An as a Party Chairman he lost his state sendate primary in 1966. The Party is Over and has been.

If they choose to run for County Executive: Lisa Boscola wins. John Callahan wins. John Morganellie wins. Bob Freeman wins. Rich Grucela wins. A smart, well-funded Democrat with a persuasive, effective message will win. John Brown is the most inept, unqualified County Executive in the 2 County history of Home Rule Charter government.

Anonymous said...

Yes the once and County Executive John Callahan and Rich Gru-who? You show your thinking is as insipid as that of the Party leadership.

Also Republican county Council raised taxes in their first year, yet they will be re-elected. Hate on Brown all you want but he will win re-election if he choses to run.

Bernie O'Hare said...

You seem to like the word "insipid."

Anonymous said...

Apparently the democrat apparati of elite party workers have already chosen their candidates for county elections next year.
The idea that the democrats will win anything nest year in the county is insipid!

Anonymous said...

Yup you might be right.

In politics, it's probably a good idea to have your wife, friend, or sewing club member, ect... in the other party ready to load in they if you're right.

Anonymous said...

I have heard about a few surprise Democrats running next year that have not been pre-approved by the county party elites.

I like bananas!

Anonymous said...

What the Democrats need is a liberal redneck, with a "bullshit" allergy, that doesn't need the job.

A unicorn, I know where they can find one.

Anonymous said...

"I know where they can find one"

Oh let me guess. An old retread you love, right?

Anonymous said...

@ 3:31PM

No, I don't do retreads. Someone new, someone that would call them out, without regard for party or concerned for longevity. A real grenade.