Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Surprised By the Election Results?

I am. Tim Holden is a ten-term incumbent whose moderate views on most issues parallel the thinking of most LV residents. Jackson Eaton, with his blueblood name, had the backing of all the establishment Democrats. But both of them went down.

You could say this is a swing to the left, but I think something else is going on. If you listen to them, both Rick Daugherty and Matt Cartwright are true believers. Although I find myself more in agreement with Holden, I really admired the passion and fire in Cartwright, and even gave him my vote.

He earned it. He answered every email. I did not have to beg him for news releases.

Rick is quieter than Matt Cartwright, but cut from the same cloth. Five minutes with him, and you'll realize tha he's an idealist, too.

In other races, things pretty much went as suspected. I was surprised at Simmons' strong showing. Justin got more votes then Karen Beyer, his predecessor, in any of her uncontested primaries. Kevin Deely received about 25% less votes then other Democrats in his district.

What's your take?

38 comments:

Dave said...

Holden took the LV East for granted and he got burned. 20 years is enough. Cartwright spent a lot of cash to get us on board now we'll see if he can close the deal. His TV ads were informative and even funny. What's not to like?

Anonymous said...

Holden commanded his district because he was an "of the people" guy. He went to every pig roast and boy scout award ceremony in Schuylkill County. More than anything else, it's a Scranton district now and they wanted one of their own. It also doesn't help that he's anti-choice and pro-gun. But that's the root of it.

I also think that you are wrong on Jackson Eaton. He did not really have the support of the establishment dems. Rick was party chair and had most of the support of the establishment. Jackson did have an energized base of young people and he did raise money, so it is a suprise that Rick won, but again, they were both doing debates in Hershey.....because of redistricting, it's anyone's call.

The same thing can be said for Charlie Dent when he gets primaried by Sam Rohrer or some other crazy, know-nothing teabagger out of Berks or Lebanon in two years.

Hopefully, Dewnt has time to get to know the voters in his new district over the upcoming term first.

guy williams said...

So you were surprised at Holden losing? He was an incumbent on shaky ground. Could the same happen to Dent, after all he is on shaky ground with the far right republicans. If they wont relax and support Charlie wholeheartedly he too could go down to a fresh face.

Kevin C. said...

Holden's loss is not that big of a surprise. It was essentially a new district where many of the voters didn't know him. And Holden is not a good fit for that district. His old district was fairly Republican, so a moderate Democrat like him was a good fit. The new district is solidly Democratic, so there is no worry of nominating someone too liberal to win the general election.

Cartwright spent a lot of his own money on the campaign, and several outside liberal groups piled on to finish Holden.

I'm also not surprised that a certain West Easton Resident didn't do very well in her quest to become a Delegate to the Republican National Convention.

Anonymous said...

It was a definite swing to the left coupled with the a "throw the bastards out" mentality. This ten-term Holden character doesn't fly in the LV - perhaps he does it the hinterlands where he came from. Voting against the President's agenda is not something Democrats want and they've seen enough of milquetoast, fence-sitting Democrats. Cartwright's victory speech showed he is a true Democrat and will fight for what Democrats - not moderates - want.

Anonymous said...

Cartwright's victory was the appropriate outcome.

It is only right that the new disrict, overwhelmingly occupied by hand-out seeking, underachieving nanny-stateists, those who will willingly turn a blind eye to corruption and pork-barrel politics in exchange for their morsels, to be represented by Ciavarella's pal Robinhood.

Dent, as others here have already posited, will suffer the same fate as TIIIIIIIMMMAH if he does not move right.

-Clem

Anonymous said...

Did Pat Browne win one of the delegate slots for the Republican National Convention?

I can't find those results anywhere.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I know he won in NC.

Anonymous said...

What a sad day for Democrats. We take a senior Congressman (20 Years) and throw him out of office for a leftwing nutjob. We can't keep spending and if there is one thing we need in Congress it's a moderate demo to represent us. Now I am more convinced than ever that the left wing nutjobs will bring Obama down. This ultra liberal garbage is killing us.

Anonymous said...

Nobody likes incumbents.

Especially ones in the worst Congress ever.

And that's about it.

Anonymous said...

As usual the local papers coverage of the election results sucks. WTF is wrong with these people!

Seamus

Anonymous said...

I found a couple of interesting results in Lehigh County.

1.Sadly, LC Republicans awarded Pat Browne a huge landslide win for RNC delegate.

2. While approx. 13,500 LC Dems voted in the congressional races, Obama only received 12,250 votes, meaning that over a 1,000 Dem voters (approx. 10%) did not vote for Obama.

3. King Edwin finished just 4th out of 7 candidates for DNC delegate, which truly suprised me. I think its a strong indicator of his negatives outside of the City of Allentown.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"King Edwin finished just 4th out of 7 candidates for DNC delegate, which truly suprised me. I think its a strong indicator of his negatives outside of the City of Allentown."

Wow! In NC, he finished 5th.

Something he should think about if he wants to run statewide.

Anonymous said...

Broader office for Mayor Pawlowski is now near impossible. He has time to redeem himself but I am highly doubting it. He was smart to raise off of this early, because he won't get anything now.

I still go back to my rant on the other post though. He should have and needs the input of his County Exec and Congressman. The man is on an island, and that is not where you want to be politically or more importantly when you are trying to save a city. Just maybe with the right mix this effort can be saved and completed in some manner that meets all needs.
Cunningham I'm calling you out, where do you stand? This is your job! Stop working on your next move and finish something for once. Allentown needs your help.

Seamus

Anonymous said...

I always wonder what people do when they don't like someone who is the only candidate in their primary. I know I will write myself in if I do not know anything about a candidate for a particular seat.

Anonymous said...

The Labor Unions were big behind Daugherty. Jackson had support from social liberals (abortion and GLBT issues). If anything, I see this race as a confirmation that there is still a divide within the D party in the region but that Unions show up and deliver.

Just as R's love to bash the constant election of D's in Allentown, how the heck can MacKenzie be considered the best candidate in that election. Party anointed much?

SE PA failed to deliver for Murphy. I think the competitive congressional race got Kane the primary win. If there was a competitive D primary in the SE results may have been different... maybe?

Corbett took a lump with Welch doing poorly. Rohrer coming in 2nd shows that there is always a solid base for hard righties to build their campaign. Smith proved that in crowded primaries, lots of money will win it.

Finally, little discussed, is that the speaker of the state house barely survived his primary. What is with the speaker's office lately? Incumbent lot in 2010. Almost lost in 2012. And then there is Perzel. Not good to be speaker of the pa house.

Anonymous said...

I guess Holden wasn't helped by the beautiful Sal Panto TV commercials. Sal's suits were only two sizes too small.
People are tired of do nothing incumbents and make beleive Democrats.

The machine boys are in for more surprises. Take you big money and cronies and go to Bermuda.

Lighthouse said...

April 10th I commented here: "I think all these local "establishment" committees rallying the wagons and endorsing Holden simply because he has "seniority" might find they don't really have a good pulse of the people." They might want to take note, as they look ahead to future races like County Exec--is there a disconnect between them and the rank and file?

Two Bethlehem Twp precincts were 63/66-37/34% in favor of Cartwright, and Township-wide 52-48% in favor. So the phone calls from Rendell, and various other interests did not sway.

Cartwright and his team made the effort to reach out. Holden and his team ignored the rank and file and focused on the establishment endorsements (at least in NorCo). It seemed as if Holden tried to avoid his votes on some key issues, and just focused on "send me back, I have seniority"--in a year when Congress' approval is 9%, and having a district with 78% new territory, that's not a winning reason to vote for you. Holden's reward for siding so often with the GOP was being gerrymandered by the GOP out of a job.

In the big picture, the one negative of the last several election cycles is that Congress (and gradually the populace) has become quite polarized and uncompromising with each other.

Anonymous said...

Bernie,

Has Simmons or Deely answered your NIZ Questions?

Is this really the best (2) candidates available.

Bernie O'Hare said...

No answer from either.

Anonymous said...

I think the person in store for the biggest surprise next year will be Johnny Casino Callahan. He and his gang figure they will breeze into the County Executive nomination with his huge cash war-chest and endorsements.

Maybe not. The Dent mailers are still around and being circulated. They show a less than competent guy. It is also obvious to most super voter Dems, that he doesn't care about being county executive as much as finding a safe place to sit and wait for the next Congressional run, State Senate, whatever jumps him up again. In the meantime he collects a nice paycheck, great benefits and and a new pension plan.

He and the Callahan klan may be in for a surprise next year. Bangor isn't Bethlehem. They may do more than pull a lever for the biggest spender.

Milestone Motors said...

It was an all around piss-poor turn out for both parties.

Given the outcomes I've seen, I've already decided my vote for November, and that's a straight party-line lever pull, which would be my first ever. That pull leaves only one incumbent getting my vote.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:16 let's see who had the big money in the Holden/Cartwright Race. I think the outcome was partly determined by two SuperPACs spending over $500,000. When that money is spent in PA attacking Obama what will Cartwright do? What will his supporters do. They can say and do nothing cause the reason they won is because of SuperPAC Money. Just saying.

Mark Baker said...

anon 6:06,

Yet another anon coward spouting nonsense as his feeble mind sees it. What you don't seem to comprehend is that there are less then a dozen people who even care about bangor. Most people in the county couldn't even get there without guidance. Bethlehem is the heart of the county.

Mark Baker said...

Seamus,

You are right about Pawlowski but your way off on Cunningham. He hasn't the intestinal fortitude to stand up and make a real mark on anything. Look under Peter Principle in any management book and you will see his picture.

Anonymous said...

Wow, so the Callaahn klan thinks the Edge and Melt is what defines the county. Look down your noses at Bangor and Walnutport, but they may be the ones who decide the next election.

Bake Marker says..

Anonymous said...

If anon 9:13 had a Twitter account--I bet the user name would be, '@LVbitterHoldenfan'.

And Tim Holden's should be "@IshouldntHAVEignoredSOmanyNEWvoters"

Red Rover said...

Actually Mark Baker, EASTON is the heart of the County. All of Easton is in the county, it is the county seat where all the important stuff is for the county, you know, jail, court, where the people who handle the county's cash all work.

The two major highways pass through it as its economic veins, the few cargo rail lines left pass through Easton.

So while Bethlehem might have the ultimate teenage loitering festival "MusicFest". And it has all those pricey hipster events at the monument to the areas slaughtered economic past. It is not the heart, but more the "erection muscle" of the LV, where much of the masturbatory pleasure is fulfilled. That is not the heart.

But if you took a basic biology class, you would be well aware that the best example for a heart figuratively--would be Easton.

Mark Baker said...

101 anon red rover joke,

you must be thinking with you erection muscle. Easton is nothing but a cramped little drug center.

you say it is the county seat. I say it is the county's ass.

your jealousies of Bethlehem's revival is obvious.

Anonymous said...

Bernie
Can you possibly post the tally of all those delegates selected from both counties and communities. Can't find it anywhere. Agree comment Call did awful job.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I'll see what I can do.

Anonymous said...

Mark Baker sounds like a real jack-ass. Bethlehem is the "heart" of the county? What county? The Slate belt votes early and often! If any county candidate thinks he can win without the slate belt, they are in for a rude awakening. Everybody hates ROonAngle, but he was elected numerous times by these people. Then he was defeated by the same.

If I was Mark "Hoofty" Baker I would stay out of Bangor (routes 191 and 512 go thru town if YOU dont know it). And dont even think about going near Slateford. You probably dont know where that is either.

danthemann

Anonymous said...

Holden's loss had nothing to do with his endorsers as much as the fact that Cartwright fooled the voters by soending a lot of money and making him look like a person he isn't. He spent a ton of money and where did it come from. He painted himself against fracking but yet the biggest check came from the super PAC in TEXAS -- made up of oil and gas companies!!!!

This Congressional District is now made for Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Northampton County or Schuykill County could run the best person ever, endoresed by the most influential and not win against someone from Scranton -- especially a very rich lawyer.

Panto I am sure was looking not only at the conservative voting record but Holden's committee assignment. Chomping at the bit to get passenger rail back in the LV with Holden on the Transportation Committee is a lot better than a freshman congressman. I heard Panto say nice things about Cartwright so I am sure it was about seniority and transportation. Holden never had to raise the money needed. He represented a smaller area in the coal region and knew his voters. This time 86% were new to him. He served PA well.

Anonymous said...

Yeah I am sure Panto's bloatde image on the TV commericals helped Holden a great deal. Sal got some free adverising, good for him.

Anonymous said...

Bernie...Why are you surprised at the strong turnout for Rep Simmons?
If you truly knew the candidate you would think otherwise.He has the perfect blend of skills to be a legislator. He listens to his constiuents and is their voice in Harrisburg . The charm of the man is that he is so young but so politically mature. Mr. Simmons has a long political career ahead of him. Regarding Deely ... He is a union hack trying to pursuade voters to sympathize with the teachers union and no one is listening.Simmons took 60% of all votes cast in the primary which is landslide territory. If the dems were smart they would think twice before investing in Deely.He has little to no shot of beating Simmons.Simmons is the real deal.

Anonymous said...

Simmons has a long Political FUTURE!

He campaigned and told the Citizens and Voters that he was only Going to SERVE 3 Terms or 6 years.

Anonymous said...

Simmons also voted for the NIZ and a TAX on Gas Drilling in Penna,
This TAX will be passed on to the Citizens of Penna.

He further lied to his supporters and the Political Right of the Party.
He betrayed us!

Anonymous said...

How did Kevin Deeley do?