At its worst, this blog is a troll farm. At its best, it's a great exercise in participatory journalism. I told you yesterday that the only coronavirus curve I've been able to find is one at Pennlive.com. It shows a steady rise, statewide, in the number of Covid-19 cases, on a logarithmic scale, not an ordinal scale. Cases are still increasing on an absolute scale (we might not have peaked yet in terms of new daily cases), but appear to be decreasing on a day-over-day percentage basis (the number of new cases today compared to the total number of cases yesterday). I lamented that I wished there was a similar graph for Lehigh and Northampton County, and one of my readers found one, which is maintained by Penn State University.
Here's the logarithmic scale through April 13, which also shows the percentage of new cases appears to be declining.
In addition to this statewide scale, here's how things look in Northampton County on an ordinal scale.
As you can see, Northampton County may have already peaked. The scale shows a high of 122 new cases on April 4, but the number of new cases dropped after that date. For the past four days, the number of new cases has hovered between 43 and 48.
Lehigh County may have peaked as well. The ordinal scale reports 220 new cases on April 4, but the number of new cases has since dropped. For the past three days, the number of new cases has hovered between 58 and 64.
Now this drop in new cases might simply mean that fewer tests were conducted. But more test kits have become available in recent weeks, so the most logical explanation could be that the worst is over for the Lehigh Valley.
Obviously, I will be paying close attention to these ordinal scales over the next few days to see if this decreasing trend continues.
53 comments:
I would agree the worst is over in the Lehigh Valley. But, like everything in life, even this question is just another cyclical moment in time. There will be rises, followed by more declines. The that pattern continues until ‘wave’ becomes ‘flat enough’ for most everyone to agree in one direction and move along to the next issue to chart.
The next issue, beyond wondering if this virus danger has been resolved, will begin in earnest tomorrow when our national conversation ‘beats to death’ the level of power any President actually has under these circumstances. This raging issue will take months to resolve if it gets to the courts. Brilliant minds can all make strongly supported cases in either direction. I’ll be sitting this one out. Too exhausting.
Good info, I think. I'm a bit skeptical about any info at this point. We need to get things open and go back to work, sensibly. There are industries that should never have been forced to close. There are others that won't be the same until a vaccine is distributed. One size does not fit all. But the tragically, hilariously incorrect models didn't/don't square with what's happened. Our leaders should be laser-focused on reopening business. Start with those that should never have been shut down.
Recent news has demonstrated an unusual, but effective Trump strategy. He telegraphs several days ago he is organizing a very capable and powerful team to open the economy back up as quickly as possible. He later goes on to state he does have the power to force things to happen to ensure it DOES open.
Within 2 days, about a dozen state Governors quickly announce their OWN committees to open things back up !
So, I ask, who really controlled the narrative around opening up the economy?
As to the various models being shown to illustrate where we are in dealing with this, EVERYTHING is all dependent on the quality of the data put in.
There are industries that should never have been forced to close.
LIKE???? Name THEM.
If we dont have widespread, quick, and accurate testing we will be in and out of this hole until there is a vaccine late NEXT YEAR. This president has shown himself to be woefully incapable to understand how to best use his office to HELP rather than HINDER this process. DPA authority should have been declared weeks ago to manufacture and distribute testing. His administration's inability to get its act together regarding PPE supply and manufacture is disgraceful. His declaration of "it's up to the states to get their own" and now "I say when we release the restrictions" is typical of his inability to manage his way out of a paper bag and will again put lives in danger as did his slow and inept response to a crisis he was warned was coming.
7:36 AM
Construction, real estate, home goods manufacturing (did that kitchen cabinet shop in York stay open or closed?) to start with.
Note that Florida did not close "non-essential" businesses (including liquor stores) and continues to out-perform PA, despite what the models have said and despite the hopes of the media.
7:36 -
Any industry that relies heavily on robotic automation. Also, Real Estate. Homes are sold and closings held completely online. Add in, small local building contractors.
TRUMP, YOU IGNORED IT.
TRUMP, YOU MINIMIZED IT.
TRUMP, YOU LIED ABOUT IT.
TRUMP people died.
TRUMP, We won't forget!
7:39 - Trump did everything you now accuse him of not doing. Somehow, YOU know those things could have been done more quickly. Your remarks here are baffling.
Bernie,
Any thoughts on Republicans trying get a vote on a bill to open up construction? It seems logical considering most construct occurs outdoors and most construction men generally aren't the hugger/bugger types.
https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billInfo/billInfo.cfm?sYear=2019&sInd=0&body=H&type=B&bn=2400
I’m not Bernie, but the damage Governor Wolf has done to local small contractors is enormous. Two of my regular remodelers are forced out of working. They can’t even get a Local Building Permit that is good for a very long time. Both could EASILY work with a face mask on, and stay 6’ apart almost all of the time.
@8:04: What flavor was the kool-aid this morning?
8:43- my usual flavor is something like ‘Knowledge is Power.” Pick-up a pack at your local grocery store. If the have it in stock, of course.
Huntress, Initially, we did a terrible job of testing. A lot of the blame for that falls on the CDC and an initial refusal to recognize we had a problem. This failure to test and do contact tracing is the biggest blunder in this debacle. But things are turning around, and fast. So far, one million people in this country have been tested. If statements made at yesterday's presser are to be believed, we now are testing 100,000 people per day. Accessibility to testing, however, varies. In NYC, it is much easier to get tested than it is here. We are still behind many countries when it comes to testing per capita. As I asserted yesterday, everyone in this country should be tested. And right now, the people who are being trained to conduct a census should get training on contact tracing. Some of us who are out of work could be put to work doing this as well.
As for PPE, the blame for these shortages includes Trump, but it is a problem that goes back decades and includes several administrations and states.
I'm listening to retired Retired Lt Gen Russel Honoré on C-Span at this moment. You may recall he handled the response to Katrina and is now in charge of what has been called the "green" Army, responding to environmental pollution in Louisiana. He pointed out that, "In a disaster, you always lose the first half." We certainly have. We are down 20. He also pointed out that disasters make you look stupid. We certainly do.
Doris Kearns Goodwin would agree. She has just written "Leadership in Turbulent Times," examining the Presidential response to different crises in history. Without question, blunders are almost always made in the beginning stages. What she found is that Presidents who succeeded were driven by a moral purpose and sought to bring people together. Unfortunately, Trump is amoral and divisive. He is, however, a master showman. Whether he can get over himself remains to be seen. Based on what I saw yesterday, the answer is No. We need a new President and a new Governor.
"Any thoughts on Republicans trying get a vote on a bill to open up construction? It seems logical considering most construct occurs outdoors and most construction men generally aren't the hugger/bugger types."
If Republicans were serious, they would have resisted the shutdown from the beginning. There has been a vacuum of leadership from all sides. Of course it was nonsensical to close down construction during one of the mildest winters on record. The trade unions should be outraged at the way they've been treated. Most of these guys, by the nature of what they do, are more than 6' apart from each other. Tell me some dude is going to contract Covid-19 when he's hanging off a building in the sky, putting glass in. Or sanding sheetrock while wearing a respirator. It's downright silly.
Bernie, I just can’t understand how you can continue placing that ‘decisive’ label on Trump. Oh, well. In the end, we can only see what we WANT to see. I see something different.
You have me wrong. I have never considered Trump decisive. I think impulsive is a better word. The fact that I am critical of Wolf by no means is an indication that I support Trump. I don't.
Again, Bernie @ 9:16, the Resistance Media is saying Trump should have immediately shut down the economy. He didn’t do it as quickly as they demand now. The hypocrisy of the Resistance Media is on full display.
Resistance Media? In a democracy or constitutional public, there should always be a press that questions those in power. That's the way it works.
9:21 - Yes, of course, I committed another error of ‘fast thinking/typing on an iPad. I meant to use your actual word, DIVISIVE. Thank you.
I can’t proofread and edit until AFTER the message is sent. So, here I am catching-up. Let me know if I spelled something wrong, or put a comma at the wrong place.
@ 9:05: You better change the channel and shop at a different grocery store as all you are getting is a "Pack of Lies"!
Trump Ignored - Trump Denied - Trump Lied - People Died (23,649 & counting)
Also, I guess the GOP in Wisconsin stayed home and not voted last week? Trumps pick went down the tube as he will this November!
Dr. Dick Levine says we "bent" the curve.
"There are industries that should never have been forced to close.
LIKE???? Name THEM."
Start with almost all construction. Never should have been shut down, especially by bureaucrats who likely never used a shovel and are sitting home earning full wages while binging Tiger King. Work is overrated to them because they do so little and can't be fired. The rest of us must work to pay their salaries. They're heavy and getting heavier on our backs as this ridiculousness drags on. Enjoy your paid vacation.
Job losses from where you might least expect them:
Quest Diagnostics is furloughing employees, cutting pay, dismissing temporary workers, freezing hiring, cutting OT (Reuters)
Despite performing 40% of US COVID-19 tests, social distancing is destroying Quest's bread and butter: the other typical tests that Americans normally get.
I reside in a township that "unfortunately" has completely shut down their operations as a government. I would like to have obtained a permit to put a small extension on my house and can't get a permit to do so. The contractor works with one other person and would have been available to do my project for a very reasonable cost while exercising social distancing. He has now informed me that he probably won't be able to do my project this year and there will most likely be an increase in the cost for next year.
why are people who work outside prohibited from working when it doesn't effect or affect anyone else?
To the above comment I add this......he informed me, he and his employee signed up for unemployment benefits. And, since his wife also keeps the books and pays the different taxes, she also signed up for benefits.
Feds had a terribly slow response to this epidemic! Not united at the top! Individual Governors forced to decide for themself! Some good decisions some bad! Time to re look at what to reopen in PA slowly! This is new territory for all! Social distancing has helped! Hope that the Governors can work with the Chamber of Commerce and businesses and leaders in local communities to make the best decision! Opening too fast, could cause a st back! A lot of people suffering, not being able to pay home mortgages, and rents, etc Each State different in many ways!
Opening too soon will be a death sentence for thousands. Pls ask your state/local officials to ignore Capt Bonespurs, Rev Pence, CrownPrince Jarad and the motley horde of phonies.
10:21 10:37 10:40
C'mon guys, where did you learn your skills of persuasion?
Complete sentences? Cogent thoughts? Thoughtful commenets?
Obviously, repeating bumper sticker slogans in ALL CAPS while insulting others is the only rational way to argue!
MAGAAWETCV---Making America Great Again all while eliminating the corona virus/ how am I going to fit that all on my baseball cap? Trump in 2020.
Pennlive:
A divided state Supreme Court has rejected pleas by a golf course, a real estate agent and a state House candidate challenging Gov. Tom Wolf’s coronavirus-prompted order closing non-life-sustaining businesses.
The majority opinion by Justice Christine Donohue is the latest issued by the state’s highest court upholding Wolf’s authority to order the shutdown. An earlier challenge by gun shop owners also was nixed.
Bernie, I guess this is one opinion that you can't delete. Wrong again!
The only thing you are omitting is that OBOMAnation payed American monies for the ordain Wuhun virus.
Now you lied and people died!
Anonymous said...
MAGAAWETCV---Making America Great Again all while eliminating the corona virus/ how am I going to fit that all on my baseball cap? Trump in 2020.
April 14, 2020 at 11:03 AM
Yes, and with such a small head...
Bernie:
I posted the link to you yesterday. I thought one of the more telling signs that the curve was flattening overall in the state was the daily testing results graph in the lower right side of the Penn State data. Also, the tab for testing effort allows you to turn off the negative tests and it shows a bending of the curve in daily positive tests...now some of that is dependent on the number of total daily tests, but it is trending in the right direction overall. It also shows a pattern that more test results being reported mid-week.
Now aren't you sweet?
Get used to disappointment.
If Trump has nearly as much power as he claims, then why doesn't he admit responsibility for the failures of the feds concerning the virus?
A decrease in the RATE of new cases is not a decrease in new cases or even in the rate of new cases; it's just a smaller percentage of increase. The rate, as well as cases, still are increasing.
As someone who claims to value accurate information, you should get your act together.
1:13PM
Did you not read this?
"Cases are still increasing on an absolute scale (we might not have peaked yet in terms of new daily cases), but appear to be decreasing on a day-over-day percentage basis (the number of new cases today compared to the total number of cases yesterday)."
Let's try!
2:09
Look how well things turned out for Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Those who want things to stay closed are on the dole and don't realize their daddies have to go back to work to make money to pay for that dole. There's another population who will see unemployment and cash money that amounts to a pay raise for four months, if they stay unemployed. The quick, one-size-fits-all-cash-money solution will incentivize many to stay idle for a while. It's always the unexpected consequences. In breaking news, Mayo Clinic is slashing $1.4 B in payroll. Healthcare is getting slaughtered, while essential "overworked" hospital workers seem to have lots of time to rehearse and record countless social media dancing videos. Something's wrong here. We've all been had.
"Resistance Media? In a democracy or constitutional public, there should always be a press that questions those in power. That's the way it works."
Here, here. But public protest is non-essential and unlawful in the authoritarian state of PA. They can paint the media as insincere, because it is. But they don't have to answer to the public as they shelter and send troops to break up groups who might gather to say, "f-you," to our incompetent governor, and Dick in his dress.
You Trumpkins have a decidedly overblown view of yourselves. You're just social vandals.
"As someone who claims to value accurate information, you should get your act together."
My information is accurate. It shows there are new Covid-19 cases, but that they are rising at a slower rate. It's been that way now for five days. This could be because testing has gone down or because we've peaked. Testing has gone down in Philly, but not the LV.
"A divided state Supreme Court has rejected pleas by a golf course, a real estate agent and a state House candidate challenging Gov. Tom Wolf’s coronavirus-prompted order closing non-life-sustaining businesses.
The majority opinion by Justice Christine Donohue is the latest issued by the state’s highest court upholding Wolf’s authority to order the shutdown. An earlier challenge by gun shop owners also was nixed.".
I will have a story about this 4-3 decision tomorrow, which is clearly wrong and was penned by four of the Democrats. Dougherty is the sole Dem who dissented and that is bc he knows, better than most, what a devastating impact Wolf's shutdown has had on construction. The dissent is concerned, as I am, that procedural due process and equal protection rights have been denied. In fact, that is precisely the argument I made in an earlier story when some anonymous asshole, likely you, confused procedural and substantive due process.
What the 4-3 decision proves is that three of the four Democrats on that court are willing to shred the Constitution if it helps a Democratic Governor. It's sad. It could be appealed but my guess is that by the time it gets to the US Supreme Court, this shutdown will be over.
Democrats are on both sides of the decision and Republicans only on one, but it's the DEMOCRATS who are being partisan? Don't think so.
I do. The sole dissenting Democrat, Dougherty, is brother to a major trade union Prez in Philly, Johnny Doc. The trade unions HATE this shutdown bc they know it is bullshit and it prevents them from working. Dougherty is a trade union Dem, in other words, a blue collar Dem. The rest are elitists like Wolf himself.
It is unbelievable that you people are either playing stupid or are that dumb. You act as though a burly buggering construction guy can't spread the virus if he wears a mask. Yes, he can. He goes home a relative gets it or he has it and is asymptomatic. He goes tp the market, the pharmacy??
The SPREAD. What is so hard for you to grasp? The fact is you don't care. You libertarian me first and money first attitude is devoid of the common good.
Pure selfish me first attuite.
9:39PM
So why is this spreading faster in PA where they banned construction than it is Florida where they didn't?
And interesting choice of words. "Buggering?"
Another self proclaimed genius that's the only smart guy around.
And speaking of stupid and dumb...
"Measles outbreaks may occur as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, officials say, because some vaccination programmes are having to be delayed."
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=9299655&postID=3416700648994945603&bpli=1
Maybe that's next on the list for the Wolf administration?
Link should be
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52278925
anon 10:30. is that the Florida where the Gov. said no young people died from the virus?
Is that the same Florida where the Gov helped the spread by not closing beaches sooner?
Is that the same Florida I should trust their numbers from a science denying goober governor.
Yeah, sure.
12:39 AM
Data Denier.
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