Friday, April 17, 2020

NorCo Covid-19 Data as of April 17

(1) New Cases On a Downward Trend
PSU: Covid-19 in NorCo as of April 17

As you can see from the ordinal graph above (prepared by PSU), 43 new cases of Covid-19 were reported today. This is in line with a downward trend that first began on April 10, exactly one week ago. For the past seven days, with the exception of April 15, there have been under 50 new cases. On April 15, there were 75. The highest number of Covid-19 cases so far was on April 4, when 122 new cases were reported.

Whether this is an indication that we've peaked and are on our way down is unclear. The numbers are going down, but it appears that the statewide daily testing has also dropped. Whether testing has diminished in Northampton County is unknown.

(2) 34 People Have Died. 

Northampton County is reporting all people who are infected with Covid-19 and die within the county's borders, regardless where they actually live.  Thus far, 34 people have passed away. They lived in the following municipalities: Forks Twp. (1); Lower Nazareth Twp. (2): Bangor Boro (1); Palmer Twp. (9); Upper Nazareth Twp. (4); Williams Twp. (2); Nazareth Boro (1); Bethlehem Twp (7); City of Bethlehem (1); Washington Twp (1); Phillipsburg, NJ (1); Bronx, NY (1); and Millersburg, PA.

Average age of the Deceased: 79.6 years.

Gender of the Deceased: 56% Female/44% Male

Race of the Deceased: 74% White, 11% African American, 9% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander

(3) NorCo's Nursing Homes Have Been Hit Hard


Covid-19 has been devastating to the elderly who reside at nursing homes. It has infected 177 residents and 45 employees at the county's 10 nursing homes, resulting in 11 deaths.

(4) Area Hospitals Have Plenty of Rooms 


There appears to be no shortage of available rooms or ventilators.


Sources: PSUPa. Dep't HealthNorCo Charts

23 comments:

Doc Rock said...

NorCo website says no deaths in last 24 hours; PA Website says 27 deaths in NorCo so far as of Noon, April 17. Johns Hopkins website also says 27 deaths so far. Where does the 34 come from?????????

Can we trust any numbers? From any source? Where is the credibility? To say nothing of the accountability? We deserve answers from our elected officials.

Bernie O'Hare said...

You can trust NorCo's numbers. They come directly from the Coroner. They include all persons who dies within NC, regardless of actual residence. To the extent they differ from DOH, I would trust our Coroner.

Anonymous said...

He just can't pronounce exponential. Diction is the second thing to go, in these cases. Levine is incompetent.

Anonymous said...

@2:21 & 4:48- I do not have a problem with a transgender woman. The problem is with our state government turning a blind eye to the self-employed who have been without income for weeks. Without income because of a state government’s order. They are turning a blind eye to the fact that banks are only giving forbearance periods on mortgages and claiming they are assisting. At the end of the forbearance period the unpaid payments are due in full. Wolf turns a blind eye to it. The unemployment forms for the self-employed are not even available. Wouldn’t you have made this a priority prior to ordering the self-employed to stop work immediately. Wolf turns a blind eye to the waiver process. Landscaping get the waiver but all other outdoor construction has to stop. Wolf has not mentioned hair salon and barber shop owners. I guess he’s going to write them off as casualties of war. How many life saving mammograms and other life saving cancer screenings are not being performed? No mention from Dr Levine. These examples and many, many others are why people are angry with Gov Wolf and Dr Levine. I agree that attacking her because she is transgender is unfair. Defending her just because she is transgender is just as unfair.

Anonymous said...

"Gender of the Deceased: 56% Female/44% Male"

This is remarkable. Dr. Levine's statistics show indisputably that trans individuals are completely unaffected by CoViD-19. It may explain why Dr. Levine never seems compelled to wear a mask. Are we studying this area of apparent immunity? I bet we will.

Anonymous said...

@7:43 am.
Exactly. We need to go back to work or have governmental help to stay at home. A landscaper can build a patio outside but if it is a residential construction site, then they cannot work.

I cannot afford to stay home without an income and if it is a choice between feeding my family and keeping a roof over our heads working under the table illegally, then that is what i am going to do.

We have been patient waiting for help from the state and it has not come. We feel we are on our own here.

Anonymous said...

April 18, 2020 at 8:15 AM

yes the other 50 plus genders are safe!!! good the transformers are safe!

Anonymous said...

@ 10:07am

Are you still allowed to give estimates, for a garage?

Anonymous said...

Are you nuts! Downward trend....check the Penn WFMZ
Charting....or move to Florida

Anonymous said...

Florida? You could do worse.

FL: cases/million – 1227; deaths/million – 36
PA: cases/million – 2429; deaths/million – 75

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Even that wonky model now has more total deaths projected in PA than in FL, and FL has 70% more people.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/pennsylvania

Funny how some were swearing by that model when it was the other way ‘round.

Personally, to me it’s always looked like a typical “expert” model, with a severe case of the GIGOvirus.

Anyway, with regard to NC, one can expect data to bounce around. And the flattening is evident.

Anonymous said...

37,841 Americans have died, how many more?

Anonymous said...

Well, I guess everyone has to root for something...even losers.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I deleted a comment that asserts Covid-19 is worse than the swine flu.

I caution those who wish to comment that, if you make a factual assertion, I'd like you to be accurate. So, the extent you can, I ask that your provide a link to back up a factual assertion. You are welcome to your opinions, but let's try to be as accurate as we can be with facts.

Anonymous said...

If you are shot in the head, the coroner MUST test for COVID. If positive, Levine requires the cause of death to be COVID. Not kidding. Talk to some hospital morgues and funeral directors! Wolf and Levine want to do to our economy what Levine did to the manparts. COVID also causing layoffs and record financial losses in our hospitals. Media following the stories? Nope.

Anonymous said...

1.01
try
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Reporting-Registries/SRN%202020-02%20COVID-19%20for%20Coroners.pdf

or
https://www.thetimes-tribune.com/coronavirus/lackawanna-county-coroner-coronavirus-cases-locally-statewide-likely-underreported-1.2618490
"Kiessling said the state Coroner’s Act also obligates coroners to investigate any death “suspected to be due to contagious disease and constituting a public hazard.” He contends that means coroners should be called out to any suspected COVID-19 death, but the Department of Health disagrees, he said.

“The Department of Health is taking a different interpretation of the law, basically saying they are natural deaths and don’t need to be reported to the coroner’s office,” Kiessling said.

Rowland and Kiessling said they believe that’s led to underreporting because the death certificates are signed by attending physicians at the nursing homes. There is no way for the coroner to independently confirm if the physician tested people who were symptomatic but had not been diagnosed with the virus prior to their death.

“They probably have people dying from COVID-19 and they are not testing for it,” Kiessling said. “ If the coroner’s office was involved, we could do further testing.”

Even if coroners are not called out to every death, Rowland believes they should at least be notified of suspected virus-related deaths so they can determine if tests should be run.

“We can investigate any death we want,” he said. “We can’t investigate something we don’t know about.”

Anonymous said...

PA has 4th highest number of cases among the states...
Cases going up ...not at level

Anonymous said...

"Can we trust any numbers? From any source?"

No, not it any definitive way.

If people were dying at an higher abnormal rate it would be apparent to everyone because everyone would have a personal story of tragedy.

This is just a way to avoid Frame 313.

Anonymous said...

From today's update:

"The department also announced that electronic and probable-cause deaths are now being reported, causing a spike of 276 new deaths among positive cases."

https://www.wfmz.com/health/coronavirus/pa-department-of-health-confirms-an-additional-1215-positive-covid-19-cases-bringing-state-over/article_90ea5b06-825f-11ea-9121-3fae720045a6.html

Not sure what an "electronic" death is, but doesn't give a lot of confidence that they have a good handle on the death data.

Good news for ghoulish cheerleaders though, I suppose.

Anonymous said...

4.00
most likely
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Reporting-Registries/SRN%202020-02%20COVID-19%20for%20Coroners.pdf

covid deaths or suspected covid deaths are reported electronically at a specific site.
other deaths are the regular method.

Anonymous said...

Stay home Bernie, zero to do in the Big City of Nazareth. Your 1 bedroom apartment is sufficient for blogging.

Peterjcochran said...

Here is what should happen now in Northampton County. First responders that have ‘‘ had the flue should be on a database, should then be after recovery put into special category. Next should be all possible antibodies donors. This is stuff I leaned as a chemical officer from NBC Warfare School a defense school at Ft.Mead ,Md. The principles are exactly the same. So don’t congregate. Wash up every time you leave the house for any reason ,take the soap up your nostrils with your little fingers ,,we her are in the soup ,I warned us on this web Bernie’s site, earlier , the mayor of Easton didn’t return my text after a 3 days early warning from me that I got from a from DOD contractor . He must of blew me off as uncredidible . So here we are. Gasoline will go down again but nobody’s rolling , The economy will have problems as support chains unreliable. Meat supply will diminish shortly . We are in a high increase of contact infections because of stupid people. Yes I said that. If you don’t like what I say — come get me. This city of Easton is In effect lucky. Only maybe 2 deaths so far. We’re sliding down a slope to a depression. So , get to know what that means to your business early.

Anonymous said...

Being an employee of NBC does not make one an expert in anything pete. Chemicals today are far more sophisticated than the old days of you.

Peterjcochran said...

Anon 5:00 I’m already a self declared non-expert of anything. NBC does not mean the broadcast company . Chemicals ,and old days ,yup your right . We didn’t have contact-tracing app from Alphabet (google)using Bluetooth to backtrack patient or in old days , case /victim casualty. Samples were done with litmus paper and charcoal suits in MOPP4 chemical gear. Principal s the same on decontamination. You will soon find a lot of people from nursing homes ended up dead because,( one example, )were inadvertently contacted by a relative was being nice and dropped off sometime for grandma and the nursing home failed to isolate the item for two days or so before distributing it to her. They just never thought about it. It’s a mind set .When decontamination of a site is done ,the sit still has to “rest” then ,not have it get recontaminated. Virus and non persistent chemical agents have a shelf life of sorts . Viruses don’t live ,that exist ,there not alive ..