Friday, October 17, 2014
How Will The State Races Play Out This Year in the Lehigh Valley
Scavello v. Aurand. - Mario will crush, possibly by as many as 20 points. The reason? Monroe County Democrats. They like Scavello.
Browne v. Felton. - Walter Felton, who is also the Lehigh County Dem Chair, alienated nearly half the Lehigh County Democrats in that race. I question why he's really even running, unless it's to prevent anyone of substance from challenging the State Senator who served as J.B. Reilly's NIZ architect.
McNeill v. Molony. - Though Danny McNeil should easily win this race, lots of people don't know him in the new district. He will still win comfortably.
Harhart v. Powell v. Molovisnky. - This will be another in a long string of cakewalks for Julie Harhart, an incumbent who does not offend. Powell will be crushed and Independent Michael Molovinsky is not even a factor. I spoke to Molovinsky about this prediction, and promises to defy the odds.
Hahn v. Altieri. - I neglected to ask about this one, but think Marcia is a safe bet.
Scwheyer v. Ramos. - The first race in a new, predominately Latino district, will go to the Gringo.
Simmons v. Beyer. - This is a race Beyer can win. His supporters are all motivated, but they need to bring Democrats who do not usually vote in these off-year elections.