Do NorCo Dems Have a Chance Next Year?

As the clock winds down on an eventful 2016, some are looking ahead to next year's municipal races. This story is about the Northampton County Council and Executive races. John Brown will be starting his fourth year as Executive, ending his term in office unless he runs again. Count on it. The five at-large Council seats, all of them held by Republicans, will also be up for grabs. I think it's likely that NorCo will remain red, at least for now.

• Brown's first year in office was an unmitigated disaster. He screwed the County workforce by unilaterally reducing medical benefits, hired a propaganda director without permission, attempted to jam a $400,000 "consultant" down our throats, fired an assistant solicitor without giving her due process, got caught padding his expense reports, and actually had the temerity to post armed guards outside his office. He also went along with a ten per cent tax hike engineered by the Republicans 
• During Brown's second year, it was discovered that he authorized numerous pay hikes to county staffers without getting permission from Council. Hotel tax grants were stalled because his quondam Director of Community and Economic Development, Diane Donaher, tried to give the entire $400,000 in hotel tax grants to the Northampton County Historical Society, which just happens to be chaired by a major Republican benefactor. 
• In his third year, Brown was an absentee Executive,trying to get elected to the state auditor general position. 
• Brown also shoved a Latino Director of Administration out of the way to make room for Cathy Allen as his top lieutenant despite her history of unpaid tax liens, foreclosure, lack of education and experience.   
• After allowing the important Director of Emergency Management  to go unfilled for 18 months, he installed Todd Weaver, who just happened to be on the selection committee that panned everyone else. Weaver was chosen despite clear evidence that he is engaged in a blatant conflict of interest, approving payments to his daddy at a fire school where his daughter and wife are also involved.  
• He has been completely nontransparent, refusing to respond to media requests. He has been reluctant to state just what he did before he became Executive. His new web site is an insult to the public he supposedly serves, providing less information than its predecessor. He has completely failed to use new forms of social media like Twitter, Facebook, Instagram Snapchat and Nixel to reach out to the public.    

Though this sounds bad, he is the frontrunner. Here's why.

• Two Democrats are interested in this seat, Bob Werner and Lamont McClure. If they engage in a primary battle, even if they keep it civil, they are going to bleed each other of money that could be used in the general election.
• It appears unlikely that any Republicans will be running in the Democratic strongholds of Easton and Bethlehem. That guarantees a low turnout there, and just like four years ago, makes a countywide Republican victory more likely.
• The big unknown is the national mood.  If President Donald Trump is a disaster, it should still take about 18 months for people to realize they elected a demagogue. But if Trump is as good as he claims he is, Democrats are in for a thumping. Persons like Seth Vaughn,who said "Who cares?" about missing an important budget hearing, will be re-elected and proved correct