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Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Lehigh County Voters Say No to Extremism

Tom Muller's wife, MJ, can finally sleep. 
Though I was off the mark in Northampton County, I hit a bull's eye in Lehigh. That's good, not for me, not even for Executive-elect Tom Muller, but for the people of Lehigh County. Their vote was a vote against the extremism represented by Scott Ott and his so-called reform team. In fact, one of them, Mike Schware, went down in flames, too. How did this happen?

1) Turnout. - In contrast to Northampton County, Muller campaign manager Mike Fleck took no chances on turnout. He knew that he had to do what he could to drive out turnout in heavily Democrat West Bethlehem and Allentown, and concentrated resources on getting out the vote. It worked. It's too bad that effort was not made in the rest of Bethlehem. Ott's team made no effort to drive the turnout among tea party voters in Lowhill, Lynn and North Whitehall Townships.

2) Real Differences. - Scott Ott's divisive approach to governance includes spurning federal grants to benefit low-income communities. He actually argued against accepting a grant for Meals on Wheels. He promised voters he would cut spending, then increased it. He claimed that a 16% tax hike two years ago was irresponsible, but slipped in a 3.4% tax hike in next year's budget. Some voters are angry at Ott over the reassessment. He refused to speak to the media. He alienated voters at a NAACP debate.  Muller, who has never run for office and was himself a Republican, was so appalled by Ott's brinksmanship that he switched parties and ran himself.

Though 100% of the votes are in, and Muller has a 1,500 vote lead, Ott  only conceded just a few minutes ago. This is the kind of pig-headedness that makes Ott look silly.

Kinda' like Scrappleface.

3) The Wes Barrett Factor. - Emmaus Council member Wes Barrett was so upset by proposed CDBG cuts that he decided to take on Mike Schware, an appointed Commissioner who never actually won an election. Barrett nearly defeated Schware in an area that should have gone to Ott.

4) County Party GOTV. - In addition to Mike Fleck managing Muller's campaign, he could also county on the partyto put on the best ground game they've ever had in a county race. That's thanks to people like Bar Johnston, who was everywhere on the southern end of the County. GOP party boss Wayne Woodman did a radio interview ... in Pittsburgh.

5) Republican Dissatisfaction with Ott.- In Lower Milford today, Republicans in line at the polls began arguing with each other. The tea party types may like Ott, but more mainstream Republicans are turned off by his approach. Their voices were finally heard.

Though Lehigh is much more conservative than Northampton County, they've elected a Democrat while Northampton picked a Republican.

Congrats to Tom Muller, who refers to me as the pseudo press. I'm not sure what Ott calls me, and don't really care.

53 comments:

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Bernie O'Hare said...

Try to find a way to say that without insulting a woman.

Anonymous said...

Muller was elected by the same pieces of shit that support teh Mancave, maybe by 1,500 votes.

I watched and listened to him being interviewed at his headquarters by WFMZ. The guy is a DOLT. Couldn't complete a sentence, couldn't answer a question.

If you have the giant cesspool of Allentown in your county, you ought to beat a right wing extremist by more than 1,500 votes. But, with the help of fucktardarian blue hair traitors, he did win...

The good, no, OUTSTANDING news...The mayor of BANGOR whipped gaybefwum's pretty boy, but GOOD!

-Clem

Anonymous said...

he sure has a business resume a lot stronger than ott's. now scott can go another 4 years working out of his basement riding off of someone else's health care. he'll be 55 soon. I am sure he will be using medicare asap.

Anonymous said...

Get ready for the Muller tax increate. It is a coming!

Anonymous said...

Musty Muller wins! 70's porno lives in Lehigh County!

Anonymous said...

Perhaps it's time for the current R chair to resign. Results matter or lack thereof.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it was mainstream versus right wing. I think one had a résumé that fit his age and one had a résumé that fit an 18 year old.

Anonymous said...

Ott is an extremist tea partier. Republicans can get voted in as is evidenced by Brown's victory and five council slots in Northampton County. This vote in Lehigh County shows that the tea party has over stayed its welcome.

Anonymous said...

Wayne Woodman has over stayed his welcome too. Wonder what it feels like to piss away $80,000 on nothing?
Good job Wayne. I know your wife is rich but even Cloe Kardasihian can recognize a gold digger.

Anonymous said...

you are so full of crap. you constantly beat up fleck now you give him hero ststus

Anonymous said...

Morning Cll reported Schwre won.

Anonymous said...

Ds didn't elect Muller. Rs did.

Anonymous said...

Muller wins but his dirty campaign leaves a much more miserable world for black children. Nice work, Bernie. Muller wins. But we all lost here. The differences were legitimate and stark. Your behavior was appalling. Race-baiting is terrible for the kids we leave behind. Very sad.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't another factor the extra votes that Donovan's campaign probably spurred in Allentown? Donovan's got several thousand votes, Muller wins by 1,500, so the likelihood is that some voters wouldn't have come out except to vote against Pawloski and from those several thousand, Muller got his winning edge.

Anonymous said...

All's fair in love, war and politics. But the racial (even though it was pulled back at the very end) was really awful. Your own analysis shows it wasn't a factor and that solid issues decided the race. So why did you peddle the racism? Shame. Shame. Shame.

Anonymous said...

Lower Macungie Voters definitely rejected extremism.

In the primary common sense Percy Dougherty defeated a "reform team" funded campaign in yet another right wing primary challenge.

In the general voters in Lower Macungie came out for Tom Muller in districts with fairly significant Republican advantages in voter registration.

In local school board races moderate candidates swept tea party associated candidates.

In the township Commissioner race well funded Ott proxy Ryan Conrad finished a very distant third losing to Beitler and Higgins the two candidates who were targeted by the LC Republican party for being "too moderate" in the primary. (Dent robo called them "fake republicans".)

Anonymous said...

Bernie
Did you hear the way Woodman spoke to Gunther this morning?
Maybe Gunther will post the interview on his website.

Anonymous said...

I don't think the Muller camp should gloat too much. They needed a big victory to really prove a point and they barely eeked this one out despite the time and treasure expended. It certainly is no mandate.

The board dynamics haven't changed at all. I don't see how Muller is going to do any more or any less than Don or Bill did.

Anonymous said...

Woodman pissed away 80,000 and got nothing, nothing for his efforts. Just like in LA he gambled other peoples money.This time his wifes. Well ya win some lose some. They love ya here in dutch country Wayne.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Morning Cll reported Schwre won"

He did.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Did you hear the way Woodman spoke to Gunther this morning?"

I don't listen to Gunher.

Anonymous said...

I bet Matt Croslis woke up with a headache this morning

Anonymous said...

I am glad to see Beitler and Higgins win in lower mac. I like their moderate/pragmatic approach to government vs. the slash and burn ideology of the "reform team"

Ott's canvassers also could have done a better job pitching him for exe. She came across as really condescending and it was a turn off for us.

Anonymous said...

Ott calls you Bernie O'Hare or Mr. O'Hare because he's respectful and courteous and there's not a mean bone in his body. He ran a positive campaign and was defeated by an extraordinarily negative one.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Ott was defeated because of his own words, which were used against him. There is absolutely nothing wrong with negative campaigns, so long as the negativism concerns issues, record and qualification. It was not a dirty campaign by any stretch. I do consider Ott a mean-spirited person, and his words are evidence. He might claim negativism defeated him. I think he was defeated by his own behavior.

Anonymous said...

Biggest losers yesterday. Woodman and Croslis

Anonymous said...

Ott calls you Bernie O'Hare or Mr. O'Hare because he's respectful and courteous and there's not a mean bone in his body. He ran a positive campaign and was defeated by an extraordinarily negative one.

9:48 AM
Really? I will tell you the same thing I said about Callahan race. It’s the candidate. You can blame an ad, you can blame voter turnout but at the end of the day it all comes down to the candidate. If people though Ott was so such a great choice they would have voted him. Excuses, Excuses!.

Anonymous said...

Bernie O'Hare said...
Ott was defeated because of his own words, which were used against him. There is absolutely nothing wrong with negative campaigns, so long as the negativism concerns issues, record and qualification. It was not a dirty campaign by any stretch. I do consider Ott a mean-spirited person, and his words are evidence. He might claim negativism defeated him. I think he was defeated by his own behavior.

9:54 AM

Wow, we agree on something! I could not agree with you more!!!

Anonymous said...

Ott was defeated by negativism ---- his own.

Anonymous said...

I'll go with the combination of the Pawlowski Machine getting out higher numbers of voters in the City along with Donovan supporters who were more than likely Democrats as well. I suspect the City turnout percentage was higher than suburbs and it carried Muller and almost carried Barrett. I'm not sure this is an indictment against Ott. I think the powerful and effective Pawlowski Machine got out the D votes while Ott's team did not inspire R an equivalent amount of his base in the suburbs.

Anonymous said...

you also have to remember that Ott's reform team passed that real estate tax reassessment through, costing a a lot of people in the suburbs a lot more in RE taxes.

rightly or wrongly, i know a bunch of my neighbors whom like myself saw a big RE tax increase stayed home because of it

Off My Rocker said...

So the low turnout was due to D's not thrilled with Muller and the R's even less thrilled with Ott. So the turnout came from diehard Tea party fans for Ott and diehard D's and moderate R's for Muller. So while you all were fartin around I stayed home and clipped my toe nails.

Anonymous said...

Forget Bar Jhonston ---- Fleck won it for Muller. If Johnny Casino was unpopular so was Muller. Both were Donny boy stepsons.
Like em or hate em, Fleck is the big winner.

Anonymous said...

Politics is a very strange science.

Lots of surprises. Interesting results to spend hours debating the causes.

In the end someone wins and someone loses. And we start the next round again.

It's our favorite sport.

Anonymous said...

A real crass arrogant ass won.
Thank God------the alternative was so much worse!

Anonymous said...

Bernie,

Fleck's turnout claims in Allentown are complete nonsense. 1136 fewer votes were cast in the Exec race in Allentown than were cast in 2009. Of that, Muller received 1227 fewer votes than Cunningham did; Ott actually gained 91 votes relative to his 2009 performance.

In Bethlehem, Muller gained 87 votes over Cunningham in 2009, but Ott gained 142 votes over his 2009 race.

Muller won in Lower Mac (net gain of 721 votes in his favor versus 2009 with 409 additional voters), Sailsbury (net gain of 182 votes with 382 additional voters), South Whitehall (net gain of 375 with 751 additional voters), as well as large net gains in Upper Milford, Upper Saucon, Emmaus, Lowhill, and Whitehall.)

Anonymous said...

Bye Bye Woodman! Have a nice flight back to LA

Anonymous said...

Spot on 1:33 pm Flecks no professional and Nagy did even worse. With the money Ed P had he should have gone pro,same for Callahan. Norco had weak ground game thanks to Garvin and in Lehigh thanks to Bar and Martin got the vote for Muller and Ed P. Sorry Ed your numbers stink though against an Independent,not good for attracting big D donors away from Allison S.

Anonymous said...

Pawlowski's performance was weak. Allentown had little influence on the election's outcome. Rs in the suburbs decided the exec race. Pawlowski's gubernatorial campaign should be a regular vo-tech project with Fleck regularly slicing his hands on the band saw. You hire an amateur; you get amateur results.

Anonymous said...

Bar couldn't get a Mormon elected in Salt Lake City.

Anonymous said...

Muller won Allentown 5895 to 3518. Ott only won 1 west Allentown precinct--6 votes to 1. Ott also lost 6 out of 8 South Whitehall polls. That's not a winning formula.

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:06

Woodman and Ott put together a group 2 years ago to run for Commissioner and their mailers proclaimed they were "the new Republican Party in Lehigh County". For two straight years the SOLE focus of the Lehigh County Republican Committee under Woodman has been to elect Ott as County Executive so Woodman could use Lehigh County as his high school science fair project. Absolutely nothing else mattered, not registering voters, not running candidates in Allentown, not fielding candidates for school boards - Nothing mattered other than how it would relate to Ott's run for County Executive. Everything, and I mean everything, was viewed through that lens. There was no other focus - none. This has been the Wayne and Scott show for two years and the elected State Committee people sat on their asses and watched it happen and didn't say a word. They are either useless or cowards or both. Last night we saw the net result of that strategy and the "new" Republican Party.

Heckava job Woody. Heckava job.

Anonymous said...

Muller only received 62.5% of the vote in Allentown; Cunningham received 67.5% of the vote there in 2009, and that was with more overall voters.

Cunningham/Ott in Allentown was 7122 to 3427

Muller/Ott in Allentown was 5895 to 3518

Ott's number of votes versus 2009 increased slightly (+91), Muller's dropped significantly (-1227!!!). There's no positive way you can spin it.

With these Allentown results, all Ott had to do was perform the same elsewhere as he did in 2009 and he would have won by several hundred votes.

In Ott's favor, 37.5% of the vote in a city that couldn't even nominate a Republican mayoral candidate is a strong showing. Fleck fucked up bad in Allentown and was saved by moderate Republicans who rejected Ott in far greater numbers than they did in 2009.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Keep telling yourself that. I'll be reviewing the numbers soon. I don't think Muller would have won without Fleck, and i say this as someone who has tormented the Fleckster over the years.

Anonymous said...

I'm unsure how much of a factor Barrett was. Where Barrett was strong Muller under preformed, and where Muller was strong Barrett underperformed

Anonymous said...

you can only re-use a tea bag a few times than its time to throw it away.

mikey D said...

schware won re-election handily

Anonymous said...

115 votes is not handily

Anonymous said...

Nothing's better than spotting Scott Ott 1200 votes in Allentown while tanking for your gubernatorial candidate. You're right, O'Hare, Fleck's a fucking genius.

Anonymous said...

Schware is a teabag hack.

Anonymous said...

Following 5:58's logic Cunningham beat Ervin 10767 to 5360 in Allentown in 2005. That's 3645 votes worse Cunningham did against Ott in 2009 and Ott still couldn't win. I'm not defending Pawlowski or Fleck but there might be greater factors here at work. And at the end of the day, Ott's ego has allowed for the only 2 democrats ever to be elected County Executive in Lehigh County.

Anonymous said...

Both Ott and Callahan's campaign's were driven by ego. Both were seriously flawed candidates for a county race. They both had horrible records of broken promises and arrogance.

Unfortunately, that is what happens when you push personality and ideologically based candidacies, instead of what is the most logical or needed choice.