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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

McClure: Deathrate Declining, But is Covid-19 Contained?

On June 23, Northampton County reported a Covid-19 death toll of 267, including county residents who passed away in Lehigh County. There have been no additional deaths for the past seven days. This has prompted Executive Lamont McClure to suggest the death rate "may finally be declining." He cautions, however, that the "overall infection rate in the County is still 12.8% according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health." According to infectious disease experts, you're not out of the woods until the number of positives dips below 10%.

Covid-19 testing done at Easton Hospital resulted in a 6% positivity rate, which is promising.

As I noted last week, nursing homes are responsible for most of the Covid-19 deaths. The latest data from the county dashboard show that 86.5% of those fatally stricken by Covid-19 were nursing home residents.

Numbers cruncher Steve Thode, who recently testified at a state legislative oversight committee, has some interesting obsercvations about nursing home or LTCF (long term care facility) deaths.

"For the month of June, the DoH reported a total of 1,094 deaths from COVID-19. All but 95 of them were in LTCFs (999). So, LTCF deaths were at a rate of a little more than 33 per day for the month; non-LTCF deaths were at a rate of 3 deaths per day. LTCF deaths were 91.3% of all deaths.

"In May, there were 3,263 total deaths of which 2,035 were in LTCFs.

"So non-LTCF deaths went from 1,228 in May to 99 in June - a drop of almost 92%."

It appears are nursing homes have become the killing fields of this pandemic.

Though we may be in the "green" phase, Thode goes on to observe that both Lehigh and Northampton County are still statistically "red" in terms of 14-day new cases. Below is a chart with his findings.




16 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Contained?" "Out of the woods?"

I'm old enough to remember when the draconian measures were aimed at something called, "flattening the curve," regarding hospital bed availability. What progressive Ds do better than anything else, is move goal posts around. McClure thought pushing kids on swings was nearly a capital offense. He shut down county parks because we all know the virus loves to spread outdoors in fresh air. The number of transmissions by sliding board are enough to make any serious medical professional sound alarms. I don't think we're out of the woods until Dr. Dick's mom moves back into one of the LTCFs he and Wolf converted to the most efficient death camps in modern times. If you hate minorities and old people, these guys delivered a serious culling that you can continue to be proud of.

Anonymous said...

Covid hasn't gotten Bernie yet so, given his physical condition, it must be one big scam.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"I'm old enough to remember when the draconian measures were aimed at something called, "flattening the curve," regarding hospital bed availability."

I agree that the justifications given for the shutdown were complete horseshit, but if the object is to contain the spread, you look for positive test results to dip below ten per cent. Once that happens with increased testing, you can say you are in good shape. But the testing should be more universal.

Anonymous said...

"Draconian measures" said to anger the masses. Sweden once promoted as the standard bearer of how the pandemic should be handled. Closing government offices being the proof of tyranny. Covid-19 just being a really nasty flu.

Surprising so much can be proven wrong when you allow the idiots to party and gather without a mask.

Anonymous said...

"Flattening the curve" was about trying to avoid an immediate crisis with hospitals, but no one said that would be the last word. We have to be able to move well beyond that to the point where the disease is in retreat. Instead, it's gaining on us, and seriously so.

We are the joke of the world. So much for winning, eh?

Anonymous said...

Somewhere, Charles Darwin is watching.

Anonymous said...

We are reaching herd stupidity.

Anonymous said...

The real imbeciles are the flatten the curve adherents. They still support the guys who sentenced thousands of our elderly to horrible deaths. Many had no funerals, or limited funerals, while Wolf partied with woke protesters after wagging his elitist finger at "cowards" who wanted to feed their families. Take your mask and shove it up Dick Levine's hotel curtains dress. We were also told sliding boards and fresh air in parks were dangerous by the same woke asshole. We had a year of suicides in the last month. Keep paying attention to masks, you selfish, heartless morons. You killed those you intended and now you're just cooking up ever-changing rules because you're all so effing pro-choice.

Anonymous said...

Mooooooooooooooo.

Anonymous said...

12:39,
Shouldn't you be on your way to Trump's next "huge" rally? Oh, that's right... He can't fit 6000 people in his hermetically sealed bunker.

Anonymous said...

12:39, so I'm getting that you agree the virus is dangerous but you're not on board with wearing masks because Democrats? Got it.

Anonymous said...

11 of top 12 states for worst deaths-per-million performance have D governors. PA is 12. They all locked down and they all forced LTCFs to accept infected patients, creating the senior citizen death camps. McClure supported all the elitist antics. He has zero credibility on CoViD issues. He's an accessory to Wolf's crimes and human rights violations.

Bernie O'Hare said...

12:39 is obviously a very bitter person. Wearing a mask is a minor inconvenience. I completely agree that Wolf and Levine's response to this pandemic was overkill, but wearing a mask is no big dill.

Doc Rock said...

Bernie O'Hare said,

"...but wearing a mask is no big dill."

I'm pickled tink by that remark.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Doc, don't get too pickled, lol.

Anonymous said...

If masks work, why didn't mother Levine simply wear one and stay put in her LTCF? Sorry for the logical question.