Numbers cruncher Steve Thode has prepared a chart showing the new case rate in Lehigh and Northampton Counties between June 5 and July 14. Here's his analysis.
"When we went 'Yellow' on June 5, there had been 511 new cases the previous 14 days; when we went 'Green' on June 26, there had been 405 new cases the previous 14 days. As of today, there have been 381 new cases the past 14 days (with many more tests conducted). No "surge" in cases in the Lehigh Valley.
"How about deaths statewide?
"The 14-day death rate peaked on May 18 when a total of 2,047 deaths had been recorded the previous 14 days (an average of about 146 per day). As of today, there have been only 261 deaths recorded the past 14 days (an average of about 19 per day). That's a reduction of over 87%. And, only 74 deaths the past 14 days among Pennsylvanians not living in an LTCF. That's a reduction of almost 88%. LTCF deaths have dropped 87% since May 18."
Thode also notes that The PA DoH reported Thursday that there have been 142,176 COVID-19 tests with 5,517 positive cases the past 7 days. What they didn’t report is that that is a positivity rate of only 3.9%, well below the 10% positivity rate that indiocates a spread.
On June 26, when all PA counties went “Green” except Lebanon, the 7-day case postitivity rate was 4.2%. So, the positivity rate has gone down since then.
I'd like to know when ruling by spreading phony fear became a good thing. This just might be more deadly than COVID-19.
19 comments:
The governor has access to statewide and national resources so surely his decision is well reasoned and in the best interest of all citizens. Stay the hell at home!
Maybe Wolf should offer Zrinski a job? Seems to me they are cut from the same cloth.
Wolf lectures incessantly about crowds before rushing out to a protest march with thousands. He administered LTCF death camps where patients died unattended by family. Many of Wolf's victims had limited or no funerals. But he was outside with thousands when the politics smelled right for him. This has never been about public health in PA. If it was, Democrats would not have remained silently supportive of his death camps. Locally, not a peep from a single one of them. Gutless.
I'm hoping that Wolf runs against Toomey in 2022. When he does, he'll have a strong record of working to protect Pennsylvanians from the virus.
My guess is that Toomey will be running for Governor against Josh "I hate Catholics" Shapiro.
I hope Wolf runs for the Senate and is amply rewarded for destroying Pennsylvania's economy.
I continue to be grateful that Wolf is taking a proactive stance. Unlike Governor Kemp in Georgia, where the positivity rate is over 10%, and new cases have exceeded 100 per 100,000, and he ordered that no community could mandate face masks. Which would you prefer. As far as PA's positivity rate, from a report of the federal coronavirus task force:
“If the test positivity rate is above 10 percent, that means we’re not doing a good job mitigating the outbreak,” said Jessica Malaty Rivera, science communication lead at the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization launched by journalists from The Atlantic. “Ideally we want the test positivity rate to be below 3 percent, because that shows that we’re suppressing COVID-19."
So 3.9% in PA shows there remains work to do.
11.01
"t Josh "I hate Catholics" Shapiro."
He is using the issue for political purposes yet it seems that when a child molester has a stiff collar the rules seem to change.
Holding the Church administration responsible for the problem is not hatred.
11:10, The 10% positivity rate is what has been cited in Vox and was in the Johns Hopkins course I took. You are moving the goalposts.
"Holding the Church administration responsible for the problem is not hatred."
The way he has done it is hatred.
As to Toomey.
try
https://www.toomey.senate.gov/?p=op_ed&id=2631
"First, states and nursing homes should consider adopting the practice of cohorting, which is underway in a handful of states including Pennsylvania. With cohorting, nursing homes can separate residents with COVID-19 and those presumed to have the virus from those who have not been exposed, utilizing separate wings in an existing facility or leveraging nontraditional settings such as hotels and dormitories."
Gee sounds like he suggests keeping stable Covid patients in the LTCF.
or "death camps" unless that only applies to Wolf.
BTW, that statement came after the objections from seniors groups.
try
https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
5.4 and increasing on a State basis.
"On May 12, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days
I used to think Wolf had more on the ball. He's made one mistake after the other and didn't protect any lives. He cost them.
So it seems the positivity rate went from 3.9 to 5.4 percent.
Is it prudent to slow the reopening?
aside from WHO stating 5 percent as the goal,it seems the curve is moving up not down.
How does waiting until a 10 percent threshold stop the upward trend?
Being proactive is better than playing catch up.
12:45 and 7:32:
The official DoH report on Friday is here:
https://www.media.pa.gov/Pages/Health-Details.aspx?newsid=917
Over the past 7 days (July 10-16), 5,579 positives out of 141,307 tests. Hey, third graders, can you do the arithmetic? 5,579/141,307 = 3.95%.
12.14
try
https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
july 17 State rate is 5.6 percent
the CDC metric runs on a 14 day rolling average for reopening.
numbers came from the link that you might have missed while playing with your calculator.
An online news story (either WFMZ.com or lehighvalleylive.com, not sure which) reported the other day that at the recent press conference, a reporter asked if the reimposed 25-person limit for indoor gatherings applied to religious services. According to the story, the Health Secretary immediately responded “No” and then allegedly turned around to the look to the Governor for a response. Wolf confirmed the “No” a few seconds later. So, who is at the helm of this meandering ship - an unelected pediatrician or the Governor?
1:57:
From the PA DoH (you trust them don't you?):
July 4 to July 17 (that's 14 days, I believe) Pennsylvania had a total of 274,758 tests with 10,687 positives for a positivity rate of 3.89%.
When counting your chickens, always go to the primary source.
5.01
and using PA numbers and your calculator why would the State claim a 4.4 percent rate?
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Monitoring-Dashboard.aspx
to make it easier using just PA's numbers you go from 3.89 to 4.4 percent.
If Wolf is following Cuomo the metric for NY was a 3 day period as to opening up or restricting decisions.
There are certainly more factors in their models then reflected in the public data.
Or they are using a dart board.
More likely they are seeing the fiasco in say AZ or Texas and want to avoid the same fate.
12:01:
"The number of tests administered within the last 7 days between July 10 and July 16 is 141,307 with 5,579 positive cases."
Taken directly from: https://www.media.pa.gov/Pages/Health-Details.aspx?newsid=917
5,579/141,307 = 3.95%.
I am not responsible for Rachel Levine's crack staff and their inability to correctly perform third grade arithmetic.
Go ahead, move the goalposts again!
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