Yesterday, I told you Bethlehem's Downtown Business Association is urging Governor Tom Wolf to reverse his edict imposing draconian restrictions on restaurants and bars. They have all signed onto an initiative agreeing to follow all federal, state, and local public health guidelines. They want Governor Wolf to reconsider, at least within the Lehigh Valley. The data in Northampton County supports these businesses.
Northampton County reported just eight new cases yesterday, Since July 7, the highest it's been is 24 cases on July 15.
More importantly, deaths have dropped considerably. On July 8, six new deaths were reported. Then, from July 9-15, there were zero deaths each day. On July 16, nine new deaths came out of nowhere. Since then, there have been no new deaths.
Let's assume there are 12,800,000 people living in PA (Pre-COVID), of which approximately 80,000 live in LTCFs. Let's also assume in NorCo there are 304,000 people with about 4,000 in LTCFs (not sure of the exact LTCF population in NorCo).
So, that's a population of 12,720,000 statewide not in LTCFs, and 300,000 in NorCo not in LTCFs.
So far, statewide, there have been a total of 2,012 deaths among people not living in LTCFs; in NorCo it's 42.
So far, then, statewide, 99.983% of the Non-LTCF population has not died from COVID-19.
And, in NorCo, 99.986% of the Non-LTCF population has not died from COVID-19.
So, we're shutting down bars, restricting restaurants to 25%, and demanding teleworking wherever possible among the Non-LTCF population (I assume LTCF residents aren't barhopping, going out to dinner or teleworking) when only between 0.014% to 0.017% of that population has died from COVID-19.
Never have so many given up so much for so few.
38 comments:
Bernie, I am really not impressed with your data "analysis". Compare where PA is, relative to say Florida, or Texas. Which situation would you prefer? I prefer here.
And do you want to risk regressing to months ago? 1027 new cases on Tuesday, the highest increase since May 10 in Pennsylvania.
The shutdown of public gathering places such as bars, restaurants, etc is not primarily in response to a public health issue but rather an attempt to restrict public discourse on current events, state of the nation, etc. In other words an attempt to control and silence the masses. Wolf fears no election consequences this year so he is marching to the beat of the apparatchiks at national/global levels as are Cuomo and Murphy. Black lives matter is also being used as an effective tool of oppression so good luck to you all of you my black friends as Karl Marx was no Martin Luther King. The health consequences of covid 19 of course are real and provide an excellent cover for otherwise dubious and destructive activities. Lehigh Valley politicians are powerless puppets on a small stage and appeals to them are meaningless.
With that all being said, control of +90% of the media gives them the false appearance of being a large and powerful force which they are not. These faceless cowards are a tiny minority behind the scenes who wear masks when in public.
Stay tuned my friends, God Rules!
sounds like money is more important than lives.
Just because Covid does not kill you-it does have long term health effects.
But hey ya gotta make sure Olive Garden turns a buck for those investors.
Reversing the restriction orders will get you to Texas,Florida Arizona levels fairly quickly.
Forget above lives(after all money is the only thing) what will the medical costs be if the number of cases skyrocket?
some of your tests alone run 200 bucks.
spend ten days in the ICU and the eleventh day is free?
So overall just from a money issue it makes sense to reduce cases.
That is Martin Luther King Jr. My apology.
12:14, It is no analysis. It is the data. The data do not justify increased restrictions here in the LV. Data in other counties may justify increased restrictions there, but not here.
Also, I refuse to host comments that attempt to justify informers. Those people are little Nazis.
If I saw 2 men having sex in Nazareth boro park, I'd report/inform on them too!
There is a reason bars were shut. They are major transmission point of the Virus. They should have never been reopened in the first place. The way bars are set up makes distancing impossible, plus add in the intoxication (which in itself makes you more likely to get the virus) accompanying lowered inhibitions and the extra amount of time people spend socializing with people at the bars, creates a breeding ground for the virus.
As, to the statistics. It is highly likely that the virus is spreading in communities in the valley. That simply aren't getting tested, and aren't coming in contact with people who would. That is also why it is very dangerous to open the schools as well
The simply fact of the matter is bars are dangerous places in a pandemic and never should have been reopened in the first place. They encourage interactions that will spread the virus, and increase the exposure because people tend to spend more time at bar than they do sitting at a table for a meal. Further the intoxication actually makes you more susceptible to the virus as it lowers your immune response.
I saw two women getting it on at monacacy park in Bethlehem so I asked them if I could join in but no Dicks were allowed.
Gov. Wolf has dared to do something of which Bernie O'Hare disapproves! Call out the flying monkeys!
As Biden says "you cannot let the facts get in the way of the truth"., or the political advantageous truth.
Hey people, the government, no matter who is in charge, cannot protect you from the virus. You need to do what you believe will protect you. Period.
We're in prison, but without the bars! Literally.
Wolf and his supporters continue to try to cover up their failures in our nursing homes, by forcing draconian measures on the rest of us to make it seem that he's rescuing us from something that barely threatens us.
Instead of saving us, the Governor is suffocating the life out of us.
To borrow a line from Wolf's leftist buddies: I can't breathe!
Its a power grab from the Governor. He doesn't care about us small business owners. His actions today will result in thousands of small business owners going out of business.
I believe that many people will refuse to social distance or wear masks, so that leaves the grownups in the room (or state) with only so many options.
The spread of a communicable disease is retarded by less communication. It's just that simple.
We live in a capitalism society and only the strongest will survive. That's how it's supposed to work!
11:01, so you're saying that capitalism is fatal?
Restrictions haven't been about health and "flattening the curve" for months. New restrictions are aimed at preventing large campaign rallies. If your governor is blue, he's not permitting rallies. It's a well-coordinated plan and polls indicate it's working. The unintended victims will be teachers who are enjoying the governor's call for "safety." As the at home "educational pods" movement takes hold, as it's begun to in the last seven days, many will opt for the same safety for their children and not return to public schools. Parents driven to properly educate their kids may well agree with teachers who don't want to return. But they are not going to hold back their kids and wait until teachers feel safe. Playing politics with safety is tricky business. Their will be consequences.
While the ultimate death rate is debatable with comorbidity factors playing a role, the major problem/issue of COVID-19 is its ability to spread quickly and the varying degrees of severity it has on those infected by it.
What the problem is and will continue to be is the risk of swamping our hospitals/medical system and increasing the chance of what would ordinarily be a preventable death.
Bars, restaurants, gyms, movie theaters are getting creamed and those industries and their employees should be the highest priority for any stimulus programs that Congress can dream up.
Downplaying and/or looking for excuses to deny the risks and challenges this virus brings is exactly why this country does not have it under control.
Retards who simply can't live without going out to the bar for drinks, or worse, believe the whole thing to be a gigantic conspiracy need to be identified and filtered out of the gene pool.
@11:37 - I agree with you! I also believe the moon landing was faked, JFK was abducted by aliens and 9/11 was an inside job. They're coming for all of us brother!
Oh, if only there was a pandemic or something to justify this sort of government action.
"The spread of a communicable disease is retarded by less communication."
Well, Wolf's certainly got that nailed.
Hey cupcake, If you want to call people retards, your comment will not publish.
This sounds like some kind of conspiracy...
Why would Wolf's government intentionally hurt businesses, tanking the economy, hurting everyone, if it wasn't necessary?
If there is "no justification" speculate why would he lie. There must be a motivation.
Do you believe Wolf is mentally unstable?
Do you believe he is behaving this way because of a bribe?
Do you believe his actions indicate he is engaged in a coup against the current administration?
Assuming your numbers are correct, all that's left is why?
12:14 AM
On May 10, there were 1,295 new cases out of 7,276 tests.
That's a 17.8% positivity rate.
On July 21, there were 1,027 new cases out of 22,287 tests.
That's a 4.6% positivity rate.
On May 10, virtually the entire PA population was on lockdown.
Now, no one is on lockdown.
I realize third-grade arithmetic is tough. Try long division some time. It is very useful if you don't have a political agenda.
Remember the movie- "And the band played on." certainly worthy of a look back.
Doctor Faustus was there with Gallo during the AIDS pandemic too. Keeping his deal with Mephistopheles.
Covid-19 for those with instant recall has left them with a madding Cassandra complex.
try
https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/
PA has 2.3 million seniors.
18.2 percent of the population.
so it seems being cautious with over two million at risk individuals is prudent.
try
https://www.everythinglubbock.com/news/latest/survival-potential-will-determine-whether-south-texas-county-hospital-takes-in-covid-19-patients
"on Tuesday implemented an ethics committee and a triage committee to review all coronavirus patients as they come in to determine what type of life-saving equipment and treatment they would likely require and whether they would likely survive. Those deemed too fragile or sick or elderly will be advised to go home to loved ones, he said.
Starr County Health Authority Dr. Jose Vazquez speaks via a video conference call with media on Tuesday.
“There is nowhere to put these patients. The whole state of Texas and neighboring states have no ICU beds to spare for us,"
guess "death panels" are needed thanks to Texas gov pushing reopening
Big difference between being cautious based on our data and fear mongering. 5:19 is a fear monger
@11:37 AM.....Well stated.
5.54
with 18.2 percent at risk?
PA would have surpassed Texas had reopening been made statewide when that protest in Harrisburg occurred.
remember the militias and the non mask wearing folks.
You even admitted the gym you went to was not following reasonable precautions when reopened.
The reopen crowd is worried about money not lives.
So let's look how much the medical costs will have to be borne by citizens.
All those folks who end up on a ventilator or just hospital care do that for free?
reduce the number of cases and save the important stuff---money
"PA has 2.3 million seniors.
18.2 percent of the population.
so it seems being cautious with over two million at risk individuals is prudent."
We don't really count with some, don't you know?
That's right. We're just supposed to stay home while the "young people" go about their business. Everything stays open no matter what! No need to wear masks and such!
@12:21 PM Spoken like a true progressive lemming incapable of original thought. Keep the faith
though my brother as 2024 is not that far away.
Until the virus is totally eradicated, we must still quarantine. We can’t afford this plague a chance to create a second wave. From what I hear on the news, the second wave will be more far reaching. In the meantime I’ll just sit tight in my parents basement, not doing anything and listening to the good Doctor Levine. I hope you do the same. So what, some businesses can’t last, what’s the alternative, all humanity will be decimated. I’ll take a couple floundering businesses. Too bad, live with it.
11:37 your tin foil hat is showing. Yup, this is all bc Dems dont want big campaign rallies. Must be why some Republican governors are being cautious too. Time for another gulp of your kool aid before you come to your senses.
There's just no convincing the conservative kooks. Everything is a conspiracy, and Trump also buys into this.
Heaven help us.
The "Trump Rally" has already become a self parody, but sure COVID-19 was unleashed on the world to prevent these crucial events from happening. Sure the MAGA Hat's go to them like Deadheads did to see their beloved Jerry Garcia, but lets all be certain that having them or not having them have little to do with Trumps chances in November. Those events pure and simple were base pleasers and nothing more.
In a way it probably benefits Trump since 50% of his ad-libs and riffs at those events tend to be used against him.
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