Throughout the United States, about 122,000 people have died as a result of Covid-19. Pennsylvania has had the 8th highest number of deaths nationwide. And according to a news release from Northampton County yesterday, the death toll here is at least 249. It's actually higher (at least 260) because some county residents passed away in Lehigh County.
Of the 249 deaths in Northampton, 212 were from nursing homes. That's 85.1% of all fatalities. Between June 8 and yesterday (June 22), the number of new cases daily has varied from a low of 3 to a high of 20.
The county statement warns that "[y]ounger people remain at significant and serious risk, and should stay-at-home. All Northampton County residents should continue to practice social distancing."
This statement is rebutted by a recent study published in Nature as well as an April study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Both of these studies were summarized on NPR as follows:
- People under 20 were about half as susceptible to infection as people over 20.
- Only 20% of those between 10 and 19 years old were sick enough to report an infection, compared to 70% of those over 70.
- Children under age 18 make up 22% of the U.S. population, but account for fewer than 2% of reported cases.
Armed with this knowledge, it's safe to suggest that younger people are far less likely to contract this virus than the rest if us. This flies in the face of our experience with respiratory viruses, but that's what the data show.
25 comments:
Thank you Governor Wolf for implementing guidelines to keep us from spreading this virus faster than cases are resolved - through death or recovery. There is a resurgence in several states and we don't want that here. Erring on the side of safety is far wiser than opening the floodgates and acting like everything is hunky dory. Sadly we have no real guidance with any coherent message or policy coming from the federal government - the president has punted because he has more important things to worry about. Such as making excuses why he can't walk or pick up a glass of water.
From a current Al Jazeera English article - "There are more than 26,000 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases across the US daily, and more than 120,000 virus deaths."
The thing about people under 20 is that they live with people OVER 20.
You, Trump and your realtor buddy can form an Infectious disease deniers club.
Yes the death rate is higher in the old but you are omitting the fact that infections in the young are rising with the lax social distancing they practice. Most may be asymptomatic but they are spreading it to the rest of the population. Then there are the idiots who who go to political rallies and throw away the masks offered to them.
If there is “no real guidance with any coherent message or policy coming from the federal government”, why does almost every news story, business reopening announcement, website posting, etc. note compliance with “applicable CDC guidelines”?
Wolf ordered nursing homes to take covid patients and created death camps for our elderly, who died horrible deaths, unattended by locked out family. Then, had no funeral or one with fewer than 10 attendees, while Wolf marched with thousands in Harrisburg when it suited his political agenda. He destroyed the state's economy with a dangerous and deadly lockdown, and called those desperate to return to work, "cowards." PA experienced a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last month. Wolf hid for months, without taking live or follow-up questions while he issued ever-changing and confusing edicts. Remember, by his formula that suddenly evaporated when he was asked to justify it, NorCo wasn't/isn't supposed to escape the "red" designation until mid August. Yet, here we are going "green" next week. He lied. He hid like a coward. He wrecked the economy. He caused thousands of unnecessary deaths. He will go down in history as this state's worst governor.
I agree Trump deserves an F for his handling of the crisis. He initially downplayed or denied the existence of a problem. Then he got religion and was very helpful in getting inhalators and help to states that needed it, particularly NY and NJ. But his daily briefings soon devolved in a shitshow, with him arguing with the press and using the air time to voice his petty grievances against everyone. Then he suspended them and now is back to pretending the crisis does not exist. His refusal to wear a mask sets a poor example and is the height of arrogance.
Wolf also deserves an F. He did not err on the side of safety, but made incredibly stupid decisions that resulted in a massive number of deaths at nursing homes and LTCFs. He shout down the economy without even bothering to discuss it with business leaders or his own workforce board. But he gave waivers to himself and some of his favorites. He threw two million out of work knowing that he lacked the infrastructure to handle the massive amount of unemployment complaints that would ensue. There are numerous people who still have had no relief. While condemning shutdown protests, he himself hypocritically participated in a BLM protest.
He only produced a waiver list after it was subpoenaed, and has had zero transparency. Even his press conferences had screened questions.
I would be hard put to say who is worse. Both are pretty bad. One pretended there is no problem and the other thinks the sky is falling.
Economics aside, to me this data suggests that the county did a decent job in keeping most people healthy and isolating it to nursing homes. Stop testing and the numbers will go down.
We can see all the government workers who are getting paid for not working, who would be happy if the economy was shut down permanently as long as they can get paid. this is not the first or the last virus we will encounter, shut downs are irrational to the long term picture. If you want to stay home. do it. If you want to isolate yourself permanently good. Let those who want to work and keep on living do so.
"did a decent job in keeping most people healthy and isolating it to nursing homes ..."
Our nursing homes were death camps. And if so isolated, why are the rest of us still under house arrest until Friday? How safe were the people who missed life saving therapies and early detection cancer screenings? How about the 80% drop in life-saving ER visits? How about a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last month? If you think that's a decent job, you're crazy.
Oh, if only we could elect our governor instead of having a dictator.
Oh...wait.
But Levine can move her mother out of a nursing home and no one really makes much of a stink about it. What did this person know that wasn't told to other nursing home residents, staff, family...?
Levine said LTCs were under control, while moving mom to the Hershey Lodge. Then, Levine said mom was capable of making her own health decisions, while the rest of us were put under house arrest because the incompetent doctor said we couldn't be responsible for our own health decisions. Wolf, while a co-conspirator in possible thousands of elderly deaths that went unattended by family and resulted in no funerals or serious limits on funeral attendance, and was having dads arrested for pushing kids on swings - before he ran outside to mass protest with thousands. If you still support this vicious, dangerous elitist, you deserve to get CoVid and suffer at the concentration camp Levine's mom quickly abandoned.
As Mr. Fauci pointed out in today's lengthy appearance before a committee of congress, young people can transmit the virus and never know they have it. So obviously, the issue is that little Johnny or Susie may be asymptomatic, but cause Aunt Jeannie who lives in an apartment alone up in Wind Gap to catch it, become very ill and possibly die.
To say young people don't become ill in significant numbers and leave it at that very importantly ignores the fact that this virus spreads like wildfire - by young and old alike whether they have symptoms or not. The panel discussion before the committee was very informative - hopefully you watched it Bernie and will report on it.
I will listen to Dr. Fauci on C-Span radio tonight. My understanding, and this is based on the studies, is that young people who are infected are generally asymptomatic or only mildly ill. But that's not all. They are less likely to spread the infection. I will be interested to see of he mentions this.
Why does the president want to reduce testing when he insists oncall testing every day he downplays 120K deaths?
I thought the CDC or WHO recently said that it is unlikely that asymptomatic people can transmit the disease. So much information, yet a lot of it is misinformation — wear a mask, don’t wear a mask, use hand sanitizer, limit hand sanitizer. Ughhhhh...
Wolf sold his interest in the family business in 2016. What waiver did he give himself.
Bernie O'Hare said...
I will listen to Dr. Fauci on C-Span radio tonight. My understanding, and this is based on the studies, is that young people who are infected are generally asymptomatic or only mildly ill. But that's not all. They are less likely to spread the infection. I will be interested to see of he mentions this.
June 23, 2020 at 8:21 PM
Even if that's true. all else being equal, that's of no comfort if (1) they are more likely to be infected in the first place and (2) more likely to engage in behavior that infects someone else.
People should wear masks more situations, and it shouldn't be optional.
11:40, just give the benefit of the doubt to safety. Assume that anyone can transmit the virus to you or your family and protect yourself accordingly. And assume that you can infect anyone and act accordingly. Until the infection disappears, there you are.
Anyone who resists wearing masks when physically close to others who are not in their household is part of the problem.
Let's wear the masks until November 4th. If we can free ourselves from Trump, there will be no longer any need for masks. Just hang in there!
7:21, I suspect you're not wearing one much now. I guess you're one of those people who believe the recent spikes in several states are being made up by Republicans.
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