These are "at large" seats, meaning that these are county-wide races. Only one incumbent, popular Peg Ferraro, is seeking re-election. That seems very likely. She is a Republican who is willing to side with the Democrats, as just as the venerable Jim Hemstreet was known to do.
Two other seats are being sought by Jerry Seyfried and Ron Heckman, both of whom have served on Council before and have held administrative positions. Heckman spent 8 years at the helm of Human Services. Jerry is a former County Executive, and some say he's the best we've ever had. They will win easily.
The only question in my mind is whether Seyfried, Ferraro or Heckman comes out on top.
These a good thing. The new Exec, whether it is Republican John Brown or Democrat John Callahan, will be a newcomer to County government and need all the help he can get.
Who comes in fourth? I expect Deb Hunter, who narrowly missed election in the last race, to win easily. I'll let you in on a little secret about her. She's smart. I sent a questionnaire to Council candidates last week, and she was able to alert me that I had missed one of the candidates.
In my opinion, there really is only one open seat in this race. Republicans Mat Benol, Glenn Geissinger, Hayden Phillips, Seth Vaughn and Democrats Christen Borso and Tom O'Donnell will be in a fight for fifth. My guess right now is that Hayden Phillips has an edge.
Two candidates scare me, Democrat Tom O'Donnell and Republican Hayden Phillips. I am hoping that their answers to questions posed by me (with the help of my readers) will alleviate my concerns.
27 comments:
The following four candidates will be winners in the following popular vote tally. I predict this based on experience, credibility, common sense, and simply addressing the issues in a responsible manner.. (1) this was really tough. Ferraro or Seyfried
(2) Ferraro or Seyfried They will be neck and neck (3) Heckman
(4) Deb Hunter (5) This one is up for grabs. Don't count Borso out.
Jim Gregory stated that only two Democrats can win, Deb Hunter will be top vote getter and Jerry Seyfried will be second. After Heckman would not come to his aid in his PFA case he stated, Heckman would go down in flames. He also said that since Borzo is a political operative owned by Kraft and McClure she may have problems.
I agree with your analysis that with a brand new no-county experienced executive coming in regardless of party, experience on council would be nice. Both Jerry and Ron have told me they want to see either John be successful as Executive, since it would be in the best interest of the county.
Jerry and Ron not only have a vast amount of county experience but it is both in the legislative and Administrative level. That is a big advantage. They are both committed to wanting to serve the county and both have told me this is their political swan song and they have no desire for other political office.
Given some of the turmoil over the past years, I like the idea of a couple solid grounded people on council. They are also good at sniffing out bullshit.
I also like Peg Ferraro, my only concern with Peg is she tends to wring her hands and sit on the fence a bit to much. Sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
I will be honest with you Bernie the only Republican other than Peg I see as a benefit to the county is Seth Vaughn. The others are mouthing ice words but have strong ideological underpinnings inconsistent with local government.
Who knows but I tend to agree with your analysis. Mr. Gregory has not exactly been very accurate lately.
Interestingly the past few weeks both John Brown and Seth Vaughn have knocked on my door. I have to hand it to them for knowing they need to do the old fashioned basics in uphill battles. Unfortunately I did not have equal time to talk with both.
Personally, I know it is way too early to be speculating re Council, as too much can happen. Candidates can self destruct, unexpected issues can arise, forces beyond candidates' control can shift, missteps by the top-of-the-ticket Executive candidate(s), and of course the almighty dollar's influence.
But for the fun of it, like you my personal predictions as of today would be Hunter, Seyfried, Heckman. My preference for fourth is Vaughn, as I'd like some alternative GOP perspective to "balance" a Dem majority (though all three top Dems seem to be strong and independent when they need/want to be) and having run before Vaughn has some name recognition in the County. The fifth slot I may leave blank. I know she'll win, but I honestly do not know if I can vote for Peg. Ever since she hired a private detective to investigate Nyce there is just something about her I do not trust, plus she voted for Naz Ambulance over the business interest of truly "saving Gracedale." Conventional wisdom is she'll win, but I can think of another candidate who lost the primary counting on conventional wisdom. The others? O'Donnell cannot win as a Dem in a county-wide Municipal Election, though his type of Dem might also vote for Phillips (which may sound contradictory, but has a basis, and coupled with next comment might win). Benol and Phillips share the Tea vote, but Matt is old tea and Hayden is newer... some biblical analogy about old wine in a new flask comes to mind, and if turnout is lower from lack of real Co Exec and COB mayor races my gut tells me Hayden could conceivably win the vote that elected Thierry, et al, last time around (though I fear Phillips would be more ideological/less practical than Benol). Borso? Perception is she's controlled by Kraft and McClure camps which got her past the primary, but the Municipal?? Geissinger despite the primary has little name recognition beyond Pen Argyl area for a County-wide seat first time around.
Again, so much can change between now and November though.
Write in Jim Gregory! Let us find the truth together!
After seeing what John Brown did to Bangor as Mayor (His firing of Police Chief Kerigan cost the boro $300,000 in a settlement among other sins), I will move out of the county if he wins.
@6:16 - Start packing...
I don't agree that they are clear. Hunter was the number one vote getter the last time and she placed 7th the last time she ran. She thinks being on a school board (tax and overspend all the time) makes her the most qualified candidate, i think it makes her the most Dangerous candidate. Heckman and Seyfried are well known but again they are WELL KNOWN, and that may play against them. Some of the T-party candidates are scary as heck and I would hope that they get zero traction. The only one I think that will make it without a doubt is Peg Ferraro, you never know what is going to happen between now and the election to the others. I only hope that whomever makes it to council knows how to throw out their petty partisan politics, and learns to listen to the 4 that are there now and that the transition is a smooth one.
Lighthouse, I like Seth Vaughn, Christen Borso, Glenn Geissinger or Mat Benol for #5. The top four that i think are already elected are four people i will be voting for.
I will vote for Ferraro even though what she did to Ron was wrong. And Jerry and Heckman are no-brainers.
Anon 9:44 acts as though the four new folks on county council are Gods. Spare us. You vote for overpriced contracts, sue the Executive with taxpayer money. You still sit back and just take in what you are told without any real questions.
Bernie, there is a move to create a new Dem power block with Borzo, Kraft and McClure. They also hope to pull O'Donnell into the mix.
The idea of a McClure or Kraft Presidency to go against Callahan is hinted at.
So it is easy to see where they are coming from. Partisan politics is not even at play here. However, personal politics is very much at play. Watch for vicious attacks on Seyfried and Heckman coming in the future and not necessarily from Republicans.
Borso isn't a very bright woman Have you ever spoken to her? she has been coached by Kraft and can't answer a question on her own. She is an embarresment to NORCO
I disagree. I have had several conversations with her. She is very knowledgeable about county issues, goes to nearly every Council meeting, and is very down-to-earth. She is also very likable. Will she be her own person? That is the question.
I also don't see the McClure-Kraft cabal. I have seen Ken strike out on his own on more than one instance. There is no way, for example, that he would go along with whatever petty vendetta that McClure and Barron have against ArtsQuest and Jeff Parks.
Looks like we're recycling old garbage.
anon3:03, and let the attacks begin. Is that worse than new garbage??
I'd take issue with Ken, and under my name, if I thought he was part of some McClure faction hellbent on causing trouble for Callahan or Brown. I watch for this sort of thing pretty closely, and just don't see it. I have seen Kraft disagree sharply with both McClure and Barron. I'm sure McClure would like to think Kraft is in his pocket, like Barron. But it's not so. Frankly, McClure will be out of office in two years. His district is more conservative, and his absenteeism is catching up with him.
"The only one I think that will make it without a doubt is Peg Ferraro"
That is really the sad fact. She adds nothing to the county debate. She goes along to get along and just likes the title. She is good at judging which way the wind is blowing and then makes her decision.
She will no doubt win in
November but she should not even be running.
I will vote for Jerry and Ron due to their background and personalities. I guess I am a sucker for Penn Dutch common sense.
I am still debating the other three. Not sure yet.
Can't vote for any R's. After the Gracedale deception, don't trust them.
I want to set the record straight. I support John Callahan for County Executive 100%. I will be working with his campaign to assure a November victory and am looking forward to him being County Executive.
He has the most experience for the job and will help us bring good paying jobs to Northampton County like he did in Bethlehem over the past 9 years.
"Can't vote for any R's. After the Gracedale deception, don't trust them."
There was no Gracedale "deception." A Democratic County Executive wanted to sell the nursing home bc it bleeds money, but would not do so unless the buyer was willing to make guarantees, that would be party of the deed, assuring the same high level of service to residents.
A Republican member of Council, Peg Ferraro, was one of Stoffa's biggest opponents on this issue.
Although most Democrats opposed the sale, it is a big mistake to be a lever puller. But that's what I'd expect from someone who calls the sqale proposal a deception.
Interesting that Ken didn't say he was working for the entire Democratic ticket. Interesting.
Bernie, when do you expect to publish your answers and questions?
In September.
I wonder what Heckman and Siefried will do when they win and have to stop their pension payments?
non-issue by above anon meant to confuse. Law has been researched an there is no conflict.
next!
8:30. Wrong, again
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