After Election, Donchez Proposes 2.3% Tax Hike

Blogger's Note: Below is Bethlehem Mayor Bob Donchez' budget address. Bethlehem's budget should be released before the election so voters can consider whether they wish to retain incumbents who support tax hikes. This is a matter of transparency. There is no good reason to wait until after an election to tell people you want to raise taxes, except to hide information that the public has a right to know.

Good morning and thank you for joining me this morning for the Annual Business Leaders Breakfast. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Moravian College for hosting this event, and a special thank you to the Philadelphia Trust Company, DeSales University MBA and the Historic Bethlehem Hotel for sponsoring this breakfast. Let me also thank the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce for sponsoring and organizing this morning’s breakfast.

The City of Bethlehem’s strength is a result of our community partnerships. We are strong because of our residents, our businesses, our institutions of higher learning, and our medical institutions. To that end, I would specifically like to thank Lehigh University, Moravian College, Northampton Community College, East Stroudsburg University, St. Luke’s University Health Network and Lehigh Valley Health Network for their continued support and investment in our community.

Before I begin, I would like to take a moment to thank my department heads, and all City employees for their hard work and dedication during the year. In addition, I would like to thank city council for their support on many initiatives during 2017 and a special thank you to my Financial Advisory Committee for their ideas and expertise.

As my fourth year in office comes to a close, I want to say that I am proud of the continued progress we have made, with an emphasis on our streets, parks, downtowns, and improving the financial and operational stability of Bethlehem.

I would like to begin by providing you with an overview of some of the significant financial events of 2017.
In 2016, the City’s credit rating was adjusted upward two notches from BBB to (A-) with a positive outlook. In 2017, the City’s credit rating was again adjusted upward two notches from (A-) with a positive outlook to A with a continued positive outlook, to A+ with a stable outlook. “The stable outlook reflects S&P’s opinion, that the City will maintain its very strong budgetary flexibility and liquidity, as well as sustain its strong budgetary performance.” So, in four years, we improved from BBB to A+. I am very proud of that achievement.

This strong budgetary performance is the result of difficult internal decisions, both from a financial and an operational perspective. As we continue to improve our financial foundation, we become more attractive to investors, families will want to move here, and businesses will want to locate here.

You can’t have a strong community without a strong financial foundation.

This graph, shows the progress we’ve made in improving the city’s general fund balance. During my administration, the City’s audits have reflected a year over year improvement in our fund balance. As this graph shows, in 2016, the unassigned fund balance grew to $12.7MM, which is a measure of fund value, not committed to any specific, restricted purpose. The Government Finance Officers Association benchmark indicates, that this unassigned fund balance, should be a minimum of $12.5MM for an operation of our size. The fact that we have now surpassed this recommendation was, in major part, the reason for the credit upgrade. Our challenge is to ensure that this fund balance doesn’t erode.

My administration has undertaken several notable initiatives necessary to improve the City’s financial position. An advance refunding of the City’s 2011A bonds, a portion of the 2013A bonds, and the 2010C note resulted in $1,244,198 in savings in 2017.
An additional advance refunding during October of the Bethlehem Authority 2011A bonds, have resulted in a savings of $1,750,000 spread over the next three year period.

I feel it essential to mention the productivity of these two financial transactions. Initial savings estimate, from our Financial Advisor for both transactions was $1,525,000. The actual savings achieved was $3,000,000, nearly double.

When it comes to accessing the capital market, Bethlehem is now playing in a different league based on the improved credit rating. This means that we can borrow at less cost, and invest more in our community. Very important!

The change in our banking relationship to TD Bank generated a $274,000 favorable swing in all accounts in 2017. Our cash is now invested, and earning money!

We continue to operate all functions of the City with a workforce of 604.

The General Fund Expenses are budgeted at $76,200,000. Note that our personnel and benefit expense is the largest percentage of our budget at 73.3%.

Healthcare expenses continue to be one of our main cost drivers, and we expect these expenses to escalate. However, our professional staff, as well as our three bargaining units, most recently became subject to a deductible which enabled the City to avoid nearly $800,000 in healthcare expense in 2017. Also, we are in the process of making changes to our prescription plan that will result in an additional $300,000 in savings.

These ongoing healthcare changes will, have over a $1MM impact in 2018. Our strategy has been to provide an attractive healthcare benefit, that still exceeds, but more closely resembles, a benefit offered by the employment mainstream, and I want to thank all city employees for helping us achieve this reduction.

We have also worked hard to ensure that our pension funds are as completely funded as possible, to provide for the needs of our retirees. Our funds, including Police, Fire, O&E, and PMRS are 88% funded.

Since the O and E pension was fully funded, we shed the risk to a third party in the form of a guaranteed pension annuity.

The budgeted General Fund Revenue is balanced with revenues, at $76,200,000. Real Estate tax remains the largest revenue component. We continue to optimize Act 511 tax collection. The business privilege tax collection has continued to improve accounting for almost $2.3MM in 2017.

The Local Share Assessment or “Host Fee” has been reinstated retroactive to January 1, 2017. This will result in the City being made whole in 2017 ($9.8MM). Additionally, based upon the correction, I am allotting for $9.8MM in the 2018 budget.

One of the most important changes to the way that we manage, is the addition of the five-year planning process. During this process, we evaluate likely trends as well as the effect of planned initiatives. Each year, we have quantified the value of our five-year cumulative deficit. If you recall in 2014, we measured this five-year deficit as over $40MM.

Thus far, we have made incremental progress each year reducing the five year deficit to 12.8MM in 2017. You will notice that this is not the case for the 2018-2022 projections. But there is a reason. Due to the increase of $1.4MM in our minimum municipal obligation to the Police and Fire pensions or MMO beginning in 2019, the five year projected deficit has increased to $19.8MM. We will continue our
efforts to reduce the five year deficit.

Since the beginning of my administration, we have been honest regarding our financial challenges. I have said in the past, that our actions will impact all city stakeholders, including property owners, business owners, non-profits, employees, and suppliers.

The following slide is a four year running total of those actions, and financial impacts. This is a very important point: The changes to revenue of $6,430,000 are minimal compared to expense reductions of $23,331,000.

We didn’t merely raise taxes and reap the benefits of an improving economy. This took a great deal of hard work, the product of tough, sometimes unpopular decisions.

We have faced the challenges head on, and have made significant progress, but even with our most recent accomplishments, I am releasing the 2018 proposed budget, with a modest tax increase of .4 Mills or 2.3%.

Internally, we have made significant progress in achieving many of our financial goals. Externally, we continuously strive to make improvements that impact the quality of life of our residents.

One of the more pressing issues of 2017 was the City’s ability to improve the condition of our streets. I challenged the Department of Public Works to pave more miles and fill more potholes than ever before.

To do this, we upgraded our equipment to meet this goal, including a milling machine, tack machine, large dump truck and a spray patch truck. In 2016, they accepted the challenge and paved more than 6 miles using cost-effective, in-house labor, and filling more than 10,000 potholes on our 520 lane miles of City streets.

This year, they again met the goal of paving over 17 lane miles including Macada Road from Center Street to Linden Street and Union Boulevard from Main Street to Center Street despite many mechanical breakdowns and uncooperative weather.

In 2017, we saw the completion of several, much needed bridge projects including the $5 million dollar replacement of the Lynn Avenue Bridge which was funded through a Smart Transportation Fund grant, and the $1.2 million replacement of the High Street Bridge funded in part by a $400,000 DCNR grant and a $350,000 contribution from Norfolk Southern. I am pleased to say that the Lynn Avenue Bridge will be open to traffic within the next few weeks and the High Street Bridge was rededicated September 1st.

In addition, it is anticipated that the Fahy Bridge reconstruction will be completed on schedule in late November.

As we approach the holidays, we continue to evaluate and enhance our efforts to ensure that Bethlehem will continue to be known as the Christmas City.

In 2017, we continued our investment in artificial trees and LED lighting for both our live and artificial trees.

In 2016 we placed emphasis on improving our parks, cleaning them up and providing new playground equipment. In 2017 we delivered: new playground equipment was installed at Bayard Park, Centenial Park (on Sand Island) Elmwood Park and Martin Luther King Park.

Evaluation of Memorial Pool continues with an expectation of a complete overhaul of that pool in late 2018 and early 2019. Look for an announcement regarding our plans early next year.

Phase IV of the South Bethlehem Greenway extending the trail southward to Saucon Park was dedicated September 12th. Phase V is in the planning stages, and should be finalized in 2018, bringing us closer than ever before, to connecting to the Hellertown/Lower Saucon Rail Trail.

Over the last four years, I have focused my energies on improving the downtown business districts. In the Moravian Historic District, we have made parking easier and added spaces, made significant improvements to the infrastructure through sidewalk replacement and street overlays, and improved amenities such as underground wiring, new trees, planters and benches.

In the Southside Arts District, we completed a public parking garage and are seeing more than $70MM in private investment.

In both downtowns, we looked closer at our retail environment and hired a business development specialist to attract business to our City.

In 2018, we will be investing more than $120,000 in projects and maintenance for our downtowns, including the neighborhood district, Northside 2027.

The South Bethlehem Keystone Innovation Zone, which last month was named the most successful KIZ program in the Commonwealth by PA DCED, has assisted more than 90 companies, securing $6 million dollars of investment through the state tax credit programs.

These investments have led to 400 new jobs, many tucked away in the second and third floors of our downtown, 116 new patents and 121 new products. As Mayor, I will continue to focus on economic development and job creation using incentives like the KIZ, NPP, LERTA, KSDZ and CRIZ.

I am very proud of our efforts to put the first CRIZ project, Social Still, into the marketplace, and even prouder to have additional projects, such as Greenway Commons and, Gateway at Greenway Park (Benner project) anchored by Lehigh University and St. Luke’s at 3rd & New Streets underway. It took more than two years of analysis and lobbying to get the changes to the CRIZ legislation that we needed, but it was well worth the effort.

I recently announced three additional projects that I support for CRIZ designation, the Wilbur Mansion, the former Dempsey’s at Westgate Mall and the historic Hotel Bethlehem expansion project.

These projects will help to create jobs, increase personal income, grow local and state tax revenues, and improve the overall quality of living for residents.

The strength of our commercial district does not just rely on business development alone. There are currently more than 250 apartment units planned or under construction in the City and another 100 more in pre-development, many located in our downtown.

It is these residential units that will add more people to the streets and help drive the success of our business community for years to come.

Bethlehem continues to make many “Best place to…” lists. Money Magazine named Bethlehem as the best place to retire in the Northeast; Forbes placed Bethlehem in its top 25 places to retire list and Huffington Post named the City one of the 10 most beautiful places to visit in the fall.

To top it off, Bethlehem was just named by the travel site Expedia, as one of the top cities in the nation that have a lot going on. That’s right, there is something called FOMO, or the Fear of Missing Out, and apparently, Bethlehem is viewed as one of those cities along with Boston, Breckenridge and San Diego.

The bedrock of these goals is public safety. Police, Fire and EMS are of primary importance and this year has been no different. It is my belief that public safety serves as an invaluable catalyst in promoting the city’s livability and its ability to attract further economic growth.

A safe Bethlehem attracts millions of visitors to enjoy our great city each year; draws families to settle down; allows individuals to invest in, or relocate their business to our city. In furtherance of this, City Police will open a new substation in the recently opened garage on New Street

And that is why the City of Bethlehem continues to be named one of the safest Cities in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

This year we saw the completion of the new Mounted Unit Stable, a modern facility for use by both the horses and the officers. The re-deployment of the Mounted Unit to additional areas of the City where they can work alongside our Beat Officers and Bike Patrols creates a highly visible police presence in the business districts, the Greenway and other areas of the City.

In 2018, we will see full implementation of video dash cameras in all City patrol vehicles and the training of all police personnel on their usage.

Testing and analysis of comparable Police Body cameras, capable of interfacing with our in-dash cameras, will be undertaken. We hope, by the start of 2019, to have all patrol officers equipped with both in-dash and body cameras. This investment will bring the police department back in line with nationally accepted and recommended standards from the Department of Justice.

With the aid of a FEMA grant, in 2018, the fire department will completely replace their self-contained breathing apparatus and supporting equipment.

This upgrade will not only affect the Bethlehem Fire Department and the Hazmat Team, but the Police Swat Team and Bethlehem Water Bureau as well.

As I discussed during last year’s Budget and State of the City addresses, the Commonwealth has mandated that the City of Bethlehem consolidate its 911 center with Northampton County. We are meeting monthly with representatives from Northampton County to ensure that Bethlehem continues to benefit from a consolidated 911 service provided by Northampton County.

Concurrent to planning for the 2019 transition of the 911 enterprise, we are also planning the creation of an emergency management center.

The new EMC is intended to provide real time control, coordination, and management of all large scale operations in the City that require coordination of multiple City departments for special events, major weather incidents and emergency operations of varying size.

In addition, the resulting smaller and leaner enterprise will provide central coordination for all non-emergency calls to the city. It will be appointed with technology to facilitate communications from the community, concerning non-emergencies, using means other than just a telephone.

My goal is to provide new capability, as well as enhance existing service, in a financially responsible manner.
In conjunction with Council President Reynolds, we expect to roll-out the City’s open data platform in several weeks. This project awaits the completion of an interface to our Superion ERP system, within which includes the vast majority of pertinent data.

This platform will provide current data to the community in an environment where the data can be viewed or analyzed. Additionally, city management will have improved analytical capability in order to run operations. While significantly improving transparency, this exciting new environment will improve the manner in which we all communicate.

As you are probably aware, Dave Brong, Business Administrator, will be retiring on December 31, 2017, after 13.5 years with the City of Bethlehem. Dave has served the City with integrity and professionalism in his current role as Business Administrator and as the former Director of Water and Sewer Resources. I want to personally thank him for his dedication and hard work to righting the financial and operational position of the City.

In closing, as you can see we have been busy. Over the last four years we have made difficult decisions and have made significant progress. While we have more work to do, this budget, will allow us to continue to provide a high level of essential City services to all Bethlehem stakeholders. We have an aggressive agenda for 2018, and I am confident that with Council and the community’s support, we will achieve our goals.

Thank you, I will take questions.

Democrats, Women Tended to Win NorCo Local Races

I've told you that Lamont McClure (22,477 votes) beat John Brown (19,278 votes) in the NorCo exec race on Tuesday. He won heavily in Bethlehem and Easton. If you take the two cities out, he still wins (according to my math), but the margin is much closer. Above, you can see the communities who went for Brown in red, while those that went for McClure are in blue.

McClure won Bethlehem, Easton, Hellertown, Freemansburg, West Easton (by one vote), Glendon, Wilson Borough, Palmer Tp, Tatamy, Stockertown, Nazareth, Upper Nazareth, Lower Mount Bethel, East Bangor, Wind Gap, Chapman, Northampton and North Catty. Brown dominated in the northern tier and the slate belt.

As the above picture reveals, turnout varied widely throughout the county, from a low of  2.78% to a high of 38.82%. Turnout is heaviest where there were disputed races. In Bethlehem and Easton, there were no uncontested races except for Dr. Paige Van Wirt's Bethlehem City Council write-in. Her candidacy increased turnout on the north side, but the south side was low.

As you might have guessed, turnout was heaviest in Upper Mount Bethel Township. Ron Angle tells me that people in his neck of the woods have terrible TV reception, so their hobby is politics. In a switch from what was going on everywhere else, Democrat Jerry Geake was ousted in the Supervisors' race, even though he is the only board member with a brain.

In a contentious Bangor school board race, Republican Bob Cartwright was blasted by the Bangor Press in a last-minute ad that failed to identify who paid for it. Bob lost his seat as a school director by 228 votes.

In Bethlehem Township, Republican Howard Kutzler (a former Township Manager) was defeated in the Comm'r race for the third ward by Democrat John Gallagher (Save Green Pond). Gallagher won by a scat 41 votes. Kutzler had been appointed to the Board when Kim Jenkins resigned earlier this year.

Gallagher will only serve for two years. This was the first electoral bid by both Kutzler and Gallagher. Kutzler referred to Gallagher as a "fine gentleman," and said he enjoyed the experience.

In the race for the fourth ward, Republican John Merhottein topped Democrat Philip Grieshaber, 479-401. Though Merhottein announced nearly a year ago and waged a serious campaign, he had a real fight on his hands.

It is pretty clear that the Trump effect was a huge factor in these two township races. Kutzler added that Dem Exec candidate Lamont McClure campaigned very hard in the township.

Confusion over poling places may have suppressed the vote in Bethlehem Township. Prior to this year's races, voting districts were redrawn. No confusion was reported after the primary, but there were more voter in the election on Tuesday. According to Kutzler, a large number were confused about where they belonged.

When he was running for the Supreme Court in 2009, Judge Jack Panella was fighting against both Joan Orie Melvin and the public purse. That's because Melvin and her state senator sister used state employees to carry on the campaign. Melvin was eventually convicted of theft of services.

On a much smaller scale, the same thing has now happened to Judge Panella's sister, Ann-Marie. She has served as a Palmer Township Supervisor for 18 years, but was challenged this year by Republican Zeke Bellis, a beverage distributor and former coach at the Palmer Township Athletic Association (PTAA).

Panella won the race by exactly 100 votes, 1,788 to 1,688. But on the weekend before the election, the PTAA sent out three emails that asked residents to vote for Bellis. The PTAA is a creature of the Palmer Tp Rec Board, which in turn is appointed but Township Supervisors.Moreover, the PTAA receives close to $100,000 from the township each year. So its use of public resources to promote a candidate for public office is certainly improper.

Dave Colver, Chairman of the Palmer Township Board, said he has received several complaints about what has happened and is looking into the situation.

Since Panella won, whatever happened is harmless error. But the people who sent out this email should be sent to the penalty box. Publicly-funded youth sports programs can include football, where kids get knocked into next Tuesday. It can include hockey, where dentist ambulances are on standby. But politics? That's child abuse. 

Democrat Lance Colondo registered an impressive victory in Nazareth against Republican Stephen Cunningham, with part of his campaign including a pledge that he would fight any jail in the Nazareth area. Speaking of jail, Republican Carl Strye, the erstwhile Mayor who was forced to resign in disgrace after admitting to skimming from illegal poker machines, is back in office. He was elected to Borough Council. Independent Ryan Wheatley unfortunately fell far short.

In fractious Williams Township, Democrat Mike Bryant came out on top of  incumbent George Washburn, a rare independent who holds public office. The vote was 467 to 443. I had the privilege of watching Washburn, a mathematician, at a few meetings. He is an excellent public servant.

Like Geake in Upper Mount Bethel, Democrat David Renaldo was defeated in the Washington Township Supervisor race by Republican Stacy Diehl. Renaldo has been a Supervisor there for 22 years. He lost by 12 votes. No one can quite explain why he lost. I think it might be that voters wanted a woman.

Speaking of women, Democrat Brooke Kerzner defeated Republican Robert J. Rhodes Jr in Bangor, 346 to 240. She used Facebook for live chats.

In East Allen Township, where voters are concerned about big box stores spawned by the UPS facility in neighboring Allen Township, voters elected Republicans Don Heiney and Gerorgiann Hunsicker. Heiney  is a certified community planner.

McClure Won Exec Race Outside of Cities, Too

Lamont McClure won Tuesday's race for NorCo Executive with 22,477 votes against John Brown's 19,278. With a 3,000 vote cushion, it's a convincing victory. As you may expect, McClure did very well in NorCo's two cities, Bethlehem and Easton. But what if there were no cities? Would he have still won? According to my review of the unofficial results, the answer is Yes.

In Bethlehem, McClure garnered 3,917 votes to Brown'e 2015. In Easton, his tally was 1,813 votes to Brown's 563. These are where he won big. But if you remove the cities from this tally, McClure still beats Brown, 16,687 to 16,670.

It's only by 17 votes, but a win is a win.

At two wards on Bethlehem's south side (wards 3 and 4), McClure drew 88% of the vote. And in Easton's ward 9, located on that city's south side, he won 84% of the vote.

Morganelli Consoles Defeated Republicans

Tuesday's election changed everything in Northampton County. Starting in January, a Democratic Executive and 6-3 Democratic majority on Council will replace a Republican Executive and 7-2 GOP-controlled Council. But business still went on as usual yesterday afternoon with a budget hearing to review next year's budget. Although two participated by phone, and called in while the meeting was in progress, all seven Council members were there. This includes three members who were just defeated yesterday. Executive John Brown was there, too. He lasted through half of the meeting before getting up and walking out.

Another person who came is DA John Morganelli. Either he or his friend, State Senator Lisa Boscola, is Northampton County's most powerful Democrat. Right before the election, Morganelli made a robocall for McClure that helped put the nails in John Brown's coffin.

You might think that Morganelli would take a few cheap shots. After all, that is what authoritarian Donald Trump has taught us to expect. But instead of gloating, Morganelli extended the olive branch to the defeated GOP.

"I always felt that you guys had the interest of the County at heart," Morganelli told Council members who will be leaving office in January. "Elections come and go. I've lost a few myself. So I know it's not an easy thing ... ." He thanked them for their service to Northampton County and cooperation with his office.

Morganelli also complimented Brown. "Overall, he was always a class act and a professional," said Morganelli.

Rudiger Martinez on Election - "Great! ... Whatever"

NorCo employee Rudiger Lyle Martinez is back from yet another suspension for mooning the security cameras at the courthouse. While taking this involuntary vacation, he read a few of my blog posts and now calls me an establishment blogger. White bread.

"If an attempt on your life has not been made, you're doing a bad job," he told me.

"How about a smashed car window? Does that count?" I asked.

"I'm not talking about some psycho ex girlfriend," he answered.

"You are not a 'reporter that matters' until someone has slipped a piano wire around your neck from behind and tried to strangle you."

Rudiger has offered to turn me into a "relevant" blogger in exchange for the chicken finger platter from Nazareth Diner, complete with mashed potatoes and brown (not tan) gravy. He will also accept a shrimp basket with fries.  This payola must be provided once a week.

I asked Rudiger for his take on Tuesday's election.

"Great! ... Whatever.

"I voted for Ed Pawlowski because I want to see him arrested while in office."

He also claims that Emil Giordano would have won his race for Superior Court if he called himself Emily.

McClure McCrushes in NorCo.

While WFMZ-TV69 was pretending to wait for results last night in the NorCo Exec race, the elections office had already had 100% of the results up online. Unofficially, Lamont McClure picked up 20,421 votes to incumbent John Brown's 17,535. McClure had a nearly 3,000 vote lead. Ironically, the man who upset John Callahan four years ago was himself toppled. This vote, along with the election of Democratic governors in Virginia and New Jersey, is clearly a rebuke of  the dangerous nonsense being spewed by authoritarian Donald Trump and his cult worshipers. But the chief architect of this victory is McClure himself. He waged a nearly perfect campaign. Rather than hiring an expensive consultant, he framed his own messages And McClure McCrushed. It's the best-run executive race I ever saw, and he clearly enjoyed himself. I hope to tell you that story in the coming days.

In addition to McClure's victory in the Exec race, four of the five Democratic Council candidates have been elected. These include top vote getter Ron Heckman (19,685), fiery Tara Zrinski (19,628), mellow Lori Vargo Heffner (19,160) and soft-spoken Bill McGee (18,992).

The sole Republican to be elected, Peg Ferraro, finished third (18,751) fifth instead of as the top vote getter. Her support for Donald Trump and unwillingness to question Brown clearly hurt her. So did her desire to fund the Da Vinci Center, a goofy fish tank in downtown Easton, with $15 million that the County does not have. I am sorry to see Hayden Phillips, whom I deeply respect, go down. But the elimination of political opportunist Glenn Geissinger, who ran for Congress after being on Council for just a year, brought no tears to my eyes. And I was thrilled to see the voters just say No to Seth Vaughn. After missing the most important budget meeting of the year, his response was, "So what? Who cares?"

Looks like the people care, Seth.

For years ago, when Brown upset John Callahan, his margin of victory was 1,294 votes. He won by keeping it close in Bethlehem, where Callahan was Mayor. Callahan only won Bethlehem by 95 votes, and actually lost in seven wards. McClure won Bethlehem by 1,902 votes, thanks in large part to the write-in City Council campaign of Dr. Paige Van Wirt.

Four years ago, Brown defeated John Callahan by 87 votes in Upper Nazareth. This time, he lost Upper Nazareth by 181 votes. He and Council incumbents paid the price for considering a $185 million jail at Gracedale.

To his credit, Brown did concede to McClure last night.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Phillips Armstrong prevail in Lehigh County. As I've told you before, he is a high caliber talent and will continue the work started by Don Cunningham and continued by Tom Muller. I wish Tom Muller had served one more term.

As for Allentown and Fed Ed, I really thought the people were going to take back their government. But they apparentylike having a crook as Mayor.

Make Your Last Minute Pitches and Election Observations Here

Want to make a last-minute recommendation for a candidate you think should be elected? Or do you have a report from any of the polling places? Please feel free to comment. I'll be busy in Hanover 3, acting as an election judge, so my participation here will be spotty.

My Five NorCo Council Picks

Peg Ferraro and Ron Angle

I am supporting three Republicans and two Democrats in this year's Council race. Yes, I am a Democrat, but believe in voting for the person, not the party. Because I am an election worker, I already voted by absentee ballot.

My three Republican picks are Peg Ferraro, Hayden Phillips and Ron Angle. Peg will be the top vote getter. She represents a decency that belongs in government. Hayden Phillips gets my vote because of his work ethic (he has the best attendance record on Council) and his independence. Yes, he considers himself a "proud tea party member,"  but he has a conscience.That is unfortunately an increasingly rare quality in government.  Though Ron Angle is my best friend, anyone who saw him during either the Executive or Council debate knows he belongs in county government. He brings humor, common sense and a nose for bullshit. No matter who is elected, Angle will be a check on executive power.

Someone who realized Angle might just get elected decided to do a robo call attacking him last night. Set to the soundtrack of Jaws, a voice asks, "Guess who is raising his ugly head at the polls tomorrow?"  The problem with this hit piece is that it is so funny it makes Angle look good.

He probably will lose because he was unable to mount a campaign. But I consider him the best candidate.

My two Democratic picks are  Ron Heckman and Bill McGee. Heckman brings a lot of institutional knowledge and is deeply committed to human services. Like the other Ron, Heckman has a great sense of humor and will call things as he sees them. I like McGee's vision for job creation, and his willingness to listen.

I cast my absentee ballot before the debate, but have to tell you that Tara Zrinski and Lori Vargo Heffner were very impressive.I admired Zrinski's passion and Heffner was as well-informed as the incumbents.     

The Case Against NorCo Exec John Brown

Tomorrow, you decide whether to keep Northampton County Executive John Brown in office for four more years or replace him with Lamont McClure. Brown needs to go.

On his webpage, McClure lays out what essentially is an indictment of Brown as corrupt, crony-filled and callous. He backs it up, too, with numerous examples of each these three Cs. Yes, Brown really did use your money to hire a PR consultant. He really did appoint an Administrator with no education, no experience and who was shackled by tax liens and a foreclosure. He endangered his own workforce by refusing to fill vacancies at the jail, resulting in mandatory overtime. He blew $72,000 of your money on a jail study that he could have obtained at no cost to taxpayers. After getting this report, he refuses to disclose the sites that had been considered. He wasted your money without talking to the major stakeholders, i.e. the judges and the DA. He posted armed guards outside his office during a news conference to keep Council members out. He spent his third year in office running for state auditor general, while collecting a salary. He tried to balance his first budget with an illegal $20 million line of credit. He appointed a voice over artist as his Director of Community and Economic Development. He still refuses to do anything about a toxic Human Resourced Director. In fact, he accepted a contribution from her husband. He referred to the county workers as "entitled spoiled brat government employees who need to get with the program." He misrepresented himself as some sort of rescuer of failed businesses. The truth is that he was a middle level business manager who was fired from two jobs and laid off at a third.

When he was elected four years ago, I really wanted to give him a chance. So did John Stoffa, his predecessor. Stoffa went out of his way to make things easy for Brown. Stoffa even provided an office to Brown, and wanted the transition to be as smooth as possible.

Brown thanked Stoffa in his very first news conference by attacking him.

The late Elmer Gates, who really was a captain of industry, said that Brown "violated the first rule of leadership: 'Don’t criticize your predecessor to try to make yourself look good.' It diminishes your stature as a leader!"

Gates is right, but Brown has never been a leader. Rather than relying on his workforce for ideas that could save money, he leaned on consultants with no institutional knowledge. He ignored the county's many centurions because he knew better.

The day he demeaned John Stoffa is the day he lost me. That man has the most integrity of anyone I ever saw in office.

Vote McClure!

GOP Tax Overhaul Actually Raises Taxes Over Time

As it stands now, your taxes will be going up in a bill that authoritarian Donald Trump wanted to call the Cut Cut Cut Bill. As reported by CBS, the House Ways and Means Committee has already proposed to amend the bill so that tax rates go up immediately as the CPI increases, instead of waiting until 2023.

TV Reporter Disrupts NorCo Public Meeting

I was unable to write about Thursday night's NorCo Council meeting until now.  I had to be in Philly Friday morning, and wanted to get some sleep. Besides that, I was in a very bad mood., and wanted to cool down. Experts warn against writing when sick,angry or tired. I was all three.

Peg Ferraro was very anxious to have a presentation by Da Vinci Center Executive Director Lin Erickson at NorCo Council on Thursday night. She was in such a hurry to hand out public money for a $130 million aquarium that she even interrupted Wednesday night's debate to invite everyone. As I've reported to you before,  Erickson wants $15 million. Ferraro hypocritically complained during the meeting that night  about the pennies that a good government study will cost, but was anxious to promote a rich person's charity with $15 million in money the County does not have.

That's not what made me sick.

Thursday night, Northampton County Council failed to override a John Brown veto of a good government ordinance that would have allowed you, the voter, decide on a government study that could scrap our 40 year-old Home Rule Charter or change it.  Council voted 6-3 for the ordinance, and only needed six votes to override the veto. Lame duck Mat Benol, a Brown sycophant, played Benedict Arnold., proving once and for all that he has no convictions.

But that's not what made me angry.

Thursday night, Northampton County Council soundly rejected a Hayden Phillips and Matt Dietz sponsored resolution that would have asked the National Institute of Corrections, at no cost to taxpayer,, whether we really need a new jail. Amazingly, the chief argument against this is fear that we might be tipping off federal officials that we are violating the constitutional rights of inmates. Such transparency! During this sad debate, Executive John Brown went on and on and on for at least a half hour about a prison study in which he has refused to name the locations considered.

He still refuses.

That's not what made me tired.

What managed to do all three was a new TV news reporter covering the giant fish tank in Easton. When Erickson was done giving her 999th pitch, this reporter decided to interview her. She did it right outside the Council chambers even though Council was still meeting to review other matters.

Things got so loud that I was unable to hear what was going on. I went outside to tell them to "take it down the hall."

"You can close the door," the reporter told me.

That room was near boiling point, so no.

In addition to disrupting a public meeting, this reporter made it impossible for several people who were waiting to get inside Council chambers. This included the Court Administrator, several citizens and a magisterial district judge or two.

Under Pennsylvania law, "A person commits a misdemeanor of the third degree if, with intent to prevent or disrupt a lawful meeting, procession or gathering, he disturbs or interrupts it."

Having been put on notice that she was disturbing a public meeting and preventing the people from participating in their own government, she needs to put the mike away and take it down the hall.

I find it particularly offensive that a reporter who is supposed to be covering the government thinks nothing of preventing it from functioning. .

NorCo: Why Brown Must Go, in 40 Seconds

This startlingly effective video message, released early on Sunday, has had 10,500 views in one day. A similar NorCo GOP ad, posted to Facebook on October 27, has had just 5,700 views over nine days.

Win or lose, Democratic messaging has been better this election cycle.

Updated 7:00 pm: As of  7 pm today, this video is up to 18,808 hits on Facebook. The GOP video, which has been up ten times as long, has just 6,300 hits. . 

Chris Casey Predicts Hyman Will Win Allentown

(from Doug Slifkin's Facebook page)

Abraham Lincoln is thought to have once said, "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt." I prove this truism on a near daily basis here. But fellow LV Blogger Chris Casey is blogging less and researching more.This includes polling. On the basis of three polls he's conducted since the primary, he believes Nat Hyman will win the election. He has kindly agreed to allow me to reproduce his analysis below. .

Here is an explanation showing how the five mayoral candidates trended during the three October Polls. The first and easiest is Solomon Tembo, who went from one of 300 voters in the first poll, to three in the second, and 4 in the last. So going into election day, Tembo is at 1.3 % If my baseline estimate of 11,000 voters participate in Allentown, Tembo would likely get somewhere between 125 and 150 votes. As a candidate, Tembo's sole function seems to be taking much needed votes from candidates not named Pawlowski. In each poll. all those who said they were voting for Tembo were registered as members of the Democratic Party. That is not to say there are not voters registered as Independents out there who would vote for Tembo, but of the 300 likely voters we received responses from, that's who said they were voting for him.

Next up is John Ingram. Ingram has shown the most improvement percentage wise of the two Non traditional candidates actually on the ballot. He started out at 13 of 300 voters in the first poll, 21 of 300 in the second, and then 29 of 300 in the last one. In the first poll, Ingram had 10 Ds, 2 R's, and 1 Indy. In the second, he had 18 D's 2 R's, and 1 Indy. In the last poll, Ingram had 20D's and 9 R's and no Indy's. I can't explain the jump in R's, but I will let others make conjecture on that. Could be a statistical anomaly, or not. Ingram is at 9.6 %, and extrapolating that with likely turnout, Ingram will likely get somewhere between 975 and 1050 votes.

Now to our biggest climber, Write in candidate and current President of City Council, Ray O'Connell. He went from 42 to 53 to 61 over the course of the three polls or from 14% to 20%. In the first poll, Ray had 38 of 200 D's, 2 of 60 R's, and 2 Indy's that said they supported him. In the second poll, he had 49 D's, 2 R's, and 2 Indy's. In the last poll, Ray had 59 D's, I R and I Indy. The number of D's apparently willing to write in Ray's name seems to be climbing, and a large in kind donation from area Democrats is helping him with his cause. If Ray maintains this amount of support thru election day, I can see him possibly getting somewhere between 2200 and 2500 votes. That won't be enough to win, but if he really is pulling most of his support from Democrats, The pain he is causing both Pawlowski and Hyman will cut across both equally, and maybe, just maybe, hurt Pawlowski more than Hyman. This one is just too fluid to call.

The most controversial and interesting candidate is obviously incumbent Mayor Ed Pawlowski. Ed started out at 98 of 300 in the first poll, 87 of 300 in the second, but has dropped to a distressing (for him) 77 of 300 in the last one. I believe this might be why he launched that "Hail Mary" of a legal counter attack a few days ago asking that the indictments be dismissed. It is my opinion that he is trying to reassure his base of true believers.

Pawlowski has seen his support in October drop from 32.6 % to 25.6%, and that puts his likely vote totals UNDER 2750 votes. He needs a minimum of 3300 to have a shot at this race, or a turnout under 10000 in Allentown. HE NEEDS his base out there, and he needs his opponents to play dead. I do not think that will happen. In the last poll, Ed had support from 58 of 200 D's, 9 of 40 R's, and 10 of the Indy's. All of his lost support (21 of 21 voters) came from his D support. I believe his strong R and Indy support is likely rooted in the Syrian and other minority communities. His R and Indy Support never wavered, staying at 9 and 10 respectively.

Finally, we get to Republican Nat Hyman. Like Pawlowski, as time went on, and the three other candidates started campaigning heavily, his initial support eroded. Nat started out with 121 of 300 40.3%), dropped to 109 (36.3%) in the second, and now 102 of 300 (34%) In the last poll Nat had 47 of 60 R's, 27 of 200D's, and 28 of the 40 Indy's.

In the first poll Nat had 42 of 60 R's, 52 of 200 D's and 27 Indys. But while his R support rose from 42 to 44 and then to 47 of 60, his D support shrank drastically from 52, to 39 to finally 27 of 200 D's. His Indy support barely wavered, starting at 27 of 40, down to 26, then up to 28 of 40.

So right now, with no major shifts taking place, I think I can safely predict that Nat Hyman will receive in excess of 3500 votes and likely win a plurality, and the Mayoral election.

Almost all of Hyman and Pawlowski's lost support went to O'Connell and Ingram, which I think is a true indicator that more and more voters are looking to alternatives to the two established mainstream political parties, But for them to actually chose an outside option at the polls, that is another thing.

HOWEVER. There are at least TEN PERCENT of the voters who are yet undecided, and will likely make their choice while standing in front of the touch screen. I feel pretty strongly that Hyman will win a narrow victory, but I would be remiss to ignore that statistically it looks like around 1000 likely voters are still up for grabs, and there's no telling what a few extra hundred people at the polls due to GOTV efforts on Tuesday can do to tip an election this difficult to predict. But I am putting my hard thought out data out here for consideration, so have at it.

My Take:  My greatest fear is that Fed Ed will be re-elected. I love Ray O'Connell, who embodies everything that is right about Allentown. Ray has every right to continue his campaign as a write-in candidate. But he can't win. He needed far more support from the Democratic party, including some of its failed candidates, than he received. Also, I doubt that more than half of those who said they would write in Ray will make the effort.

What I like about Hyman is that he is committed to Allentown. Unlike many business leaders who relocated to the 'burbs, he stayed in the Queen City and raised his family there. He has managed to run two very successful businesses because he is smart, energetic and takes a creative approach to problems. His biggest obstacle is that Allentown is a one-party town, which is precisely why it became politically corrupt. Under these circumstances, a vote for someone who can think outside the box is a no-brainer. But Allentown voters have proven time and again tat they have no brains.

How About Those Lehigh County Races?

Over the past few months, I've been quite absorbed with the Northampton County races, which have suffered from a dearth of news coverage. The Allentown City races have been covered well by The Morning Call. The Lehigh County races have been covered poorly by all of us. Here's my take.

Executive - Because incumbent Tom Muller has decided to step down and enjoy himself, this seat is wide open. The Executive is the chief executive officer and administrative official. He executes and enforces all county ordinances and presents the financial plan and budget to County Commissioners. The term of office is four years, with an annual salary of $75,000. Democrat Phillips Armstrong and Republican Brad Osborne are the two contenders.

Lehigh County Republicans refused to participate in the Trump cult, unlike their counterparts in Northampton County. Comm'r Brad Osborne may have held his nose and voted for Trump, but you won't find pictures of him posing with The Donald or Kelly Anne Conway. Believe me, I've looked. He's a pro-business Republican cut out of the same mold as Charlie Dent and Pat Browne.

Osborne served as a South Whitehall Tp Comm'r for eight years, and has been a Lehigh County Comm'r since 2012. A chemical engineer, he was the Plant Manager for GEO Specialty Chemicals in South Whitehall until his recent retirement.

I expect he will win, and will suffer none of the backlash that Dems in Northampton County are rightfully dishing out to John Brown and GOP boss General Lee Snover, who actually equated Charlie Dent with the swamp in D.C.

I saw Phillips Armstrong, ironically enough, at a "Fake News" seminar hosted by the AAUW on Saturday morning. I was there to pick up pointers. He served as a Whitehall Tp Comm'r for four years. He's a retired educator and coached girls' basketball at Whitehall and Emmaus High Schools.

Armstrong recently ran and lost a race for State Representative. I considered him the most qualified of all the Lehigh County candidates, Republican and Democrat, incumbent and challenger. He was defeated by Zach Mako, the least qualified of the candidates, Democrat or Republican, challenger or incumbent.

I commiserated with him on Saturday about the lack of news coverage. He ruefully replied that there is little interest in covering candidates who are civil to one another. Though he's right, he probably could have made better use of his time on the weekend before an election than in attending a "fake news" seminar in the heart of Northampton County.

I consider both candidates well suited to the position, but Osborne has a bit more executive experience. I would vote for Armstrong because I find his outlook and optimism refreshing, but Osborne is going to win this race.

Commissioner - In Northampton County, the legislative body is called County Council. In Lehigh County, it's called the Board of Commissioners. It is a nine-person body whose members are elected to four-year terms. They are part-timers who receive an annual salary of $7,000. Their most important duty is approving or amending the Executive's budget. They also confirm his appointments and must approve larger contracts. In a bit of an over-reach, they've also injected themselves in labor negotiations.

In Northampton County, five at-large seats are up for grabs. In Lehigh County, it is five district seats. Because these are localized races, I expect the national mood to make little difference.

Geoffrey Brace and Nathan Brown are unopposed in Districts 3 and 5, but there are three contested races.

District 1: Democrat Bob Elbich v. Republican Marc J. Grammes.- This is the northern portion of the County. Incumbent Tom Creighton, who is very conservative, is running for Magisterial District Judge. This seat will remain Republican.

District 2: Democrat Shoaib Chaudhary v. Republican Percy Dougherty. - A consummate politician who has perfected the art of telling people what they want to hear, Dougherty will win hands down.

District 3: Democrat Amy Zannelli v. Republican Bob Smith. - Dems have a shot here. This is east side Allentown and west Bethlehem, both of which vote Democratic. But Bob Smith is a legitimate hero while Zannelli is the chicken lady.

In 2010, Smith tried to stop a female patient at a personal care facility from jumping off a third-floor roof, but was pulled down along with her. He landed underneath her, broke both arms and had a serious head injury. She walked away unscathed. He put his life on the line for a fellow human being, the epitome of service.

Zanelli, in stark contrast to Smith, was terminated in 2012 from a child protective services agency in New Jersey at a time when staffing shortages and increased complaints had reached crisis levels. She appealed her Jersey termination and an arbitrator ruled against her. She simply refused to work, letting our most vulnerable element, our children, go without protection.

The same thing happened in Northampton County, where she was terminated before her probation was up because of a disagreement over the number of hours she would work. Once again, she let down the most vulnerable element of our society.

She's also the chicken lady. In 2015, she inappropriately flashed her Children, Youth and Family caseworker badge at a Hanover Township Supervisors' meeting in which she accused officials of fowl play for refusing to allow her to own backyard chickens. I have nothing against chickens, but do have problems with people who abuse their authority.

Zanelli is a bad candidate and her election will ultimately be a problem for Lehigh County. But I expect her to win.

Lou Hershman Deserves Your Vote

Courtney Robinson, a long-time Democratic operative and cigar salesman, is running for a two-year spot on Allentown City Council against Lou Hershman.  Though interested in politics and quite capable of raising lots of money from the politically entrenched, Robinson has no understanding of government and you'll never see him at a meeting. In stark contrast, Hershman served as City Controller for 24 years, and also spent a term on City Council.  As a citizen, he attends nearly every Council meeting  and has proven himself a fiscal watchdog.

Perhaps the most important service a City Council member provides is in the review and adoption of an annual budget, which is $105 million this year. Robinson is unable to manage his own finances. His landlord was forced to sue him twice, in 2012 and 2014, for nonpayment of rent.

City Council members are also tasked with responsibility for passing ordinances designed to enhance quality of life. Robinson pleaded guilty in 2013 to parking a junker on someone's private property. Is this the kid of person you want to address double parking and noise violations?

Lou is an East-sider with a successful accounting practice In all the years I've known him, I've never heard him attack anyone personally. His sole interest is good government.

This is a no-brainer. But this is Allentown. 

Darth Voter Breaks Promise, Endorses Fed Ed Supporter

In late July, State Rep. Mike Schlossberg was among 18 high-ranking Lehigh County Democrats who made clear that they want nothing to do with Allentown Mayor Edwin "Fed Ed" Pawlowski or his campaign for re-election. Past of their message was that if the party committee lifted a finger to help him, they wanted nothing to do with the party, either.

But you should always be careful when listening to someone like Schlossberg. He was caught red-handed in a ghost voting circus on important budget votes last year.

On his personal Facebook page, Schlossberg has just instructed his minions how he will be voting on Tuesday, so they can all do the same like good little Allentown lemmings. He will be voting for MsPhoebe Harris for Allentown School Board, even though she is a Fed Ed groupie.

So let me get this straight. If the "party" helps Fed Ed, it will be cut off. But Schlossberg will endorse one of Fed Ed's little helpers.

NC Voters: Retain President Judge Baratta

President Judge Steve Baratta has begged me not to say a word about his retention campaign. So that's exactly what I'm going to do. He is indisputably the court's hardest worker, and his decisions are always well-reasoned and fair. Judge Baratta actually ruled against me in the Gracedale saga, but he was extremely fair and let us have our say. Also, he was affirmed on appeal. His budgets are lean,and when he makes changes, they often result in net savings to the county. He could easily decide to go into the private sector and double his income, but I think he knows that he is providing an important public service.

We need him. 

Judge Baratta is a graduate of Bangor High School, and played basketball for Lafayette. He graduated from Fordam University School of Law in 1981. He understands Northampton County well. He was an assistant solicitor to the County,and also served as First Assistant DA under John Morganelli. He was first elected to the bench in 1997. His father, the late Renald Baratta, was one of Northampton County's most colorful trial lawyers     

I think Judge Baratta is worried that my endorsement is the kiss of death. But that's a myth, Judge. I'm really getting better at this.

Emil Giordano for Pa Superior Court

Whether you are a liberal Democrat or a conservative Republican, Judge Emil Giordano deserves your vote on Tuesday. Like Judge Jack Panella, this is a man who cares deeply about everyone. He follows the law, but is so nice about it that people actually thank him as they are carted off to be executed. I have no idea why someone would actually want to be on the state's busiest bench, and endure the travel as the bench travels throughout the state, but Judge Giordano is the best suited of the candidates running. 

DA John Morganelli: Vote McClure

NorCo Deputy Sheriff Saves Two Lives in Two Days

NorCo Deputy Sheriff Scott Kuehner

Experts caution that you should never write when you are tired, sick or angry. I find that's when I do my best work. Last night's NorCo Council meeting did all three to me. I was so upset that, at Ken Kraft's suggestion,  I hurled myself off the courthouse roof . Some bastard Deputy Sheriff caught me. We've both been hospitalized. I'm under observation for the next 48 hours. This will give me the opportunity to meet Presidents Lincoln and Jefferson, both of whom are in adjoining rooms. The poor deputy is less fortunate. It's touch and go, but I'm puling for him. My jump may also have cracked the sidewalk outside the courthouse.

I will tell you about the NorCo Council circus after I cool down in weekend posts, assuming that doctors allow it. But for now, I want to tell you about another Northampton County Deputy Sheriff. One who is uninjured.

His name is Scott Kuehner. His main duty is to serve civil papers in the Easton area. As The Express Times reported, he responded to an overdose call on Wednesday morning, and administered Narcan to a man who was slumped over in his car, saving his life.

All NorCo Deputy Sheriff vehicles contain supplies of Narcan, and Kuehner just happens to be the department's first aid instructor.

Believe it or not, he did the same thing again on Thursday.

Kuehner was in the 100 block of S.16th St in Wilson Borough or West Easton when he heard a 911 report that a female in a white SAAB was slumped over in her car. This area is like a no man's land that is covered by Pennsylvania State Police, who would take some time to respond. Kuehner raced to the scene and arrived at the same time as Wilson Borough police officers.

Officers and Kuehner could see that the woman was slumped over, with a tourniquet in her arm. He administered Narcan and was able to bring her back.

In plain view, officers also saw eight decks of what appeared to be heroin.

The woman was transported to a hospital by EMTs.

Whether she will be charged is unknown.

"This woman does not know how fortunate she is," said Sheriff David Dalrymple.

What I'd like to see is more police vehicles equipped with automated external defibrillators (AED). Drug overdoses killed 59,000 people in 2016, but sudden cardiac arrest killed 350,000. Unlike the addict, those people have done nothing illegal. But that's a story for another day.

In two days, Deputy Kuehner has saved two lives. In 2014, he and other deputies were able to use AEDs to resuscitate Bethlehem Attorney Rich Schaedler after he suffered a sudden cardiac arrest.

NorCo Exec Race - Last Minute Contributions

I have already reported to you concerning the spending in the Norco Exec race. Since that time, as required by law, candidates John Brown and Lamont McClure have reported some recent contributions.

Brown is reporting a $30,757.60 in-kind contribution from the NorCo GOP, received 10/31/17. That certainly includes the TV-buy, which other sources tell me is $7,200. The rest will likely go to a mailer and radio. In addition, he received $500 from John Chrin the same day.

McClure reports a $1,000 contribution from John Barron.

Angle, Heckman Shine in NorCo Council Debate

Ron Angle had a good night

Though Game 7 of the World Series was about to start, over 100 people attended the only debate among the ten Northampton County Council candidates at the Forks Township Municipal Center last night. Candidate supporters and party leaders were part of this audience. So were Executive John Brown and most of his cabinet. But there still were between 40-50 ordinary citizens in this group. This is unusually large for a County Council debate. At the Executive debate last week, there was an large crowd, too. We'll find out what this means next week, but my sense is that people are dissatisfied. That's usually bad news for the status quo. I suspect change is afoot.

Either that or they hate baseball.

Before getting into the debate itself, let me tell you about Northampton County Council. It is the legislative branch of county government. It is a check and balance on executive power, and has the authority to approve or replace the Executive's spending plan. It is a nine-member body, each receiving a $9,500 annual salary. Members may participate in the pension plan, but receive no medical benefits. The five seats up for grabs this year are "at-large" seats, meaning they are county-wide instead of restricted to a portion of the county.

Northampton County Council currently has a 7-2 GOP majority.

Tara Zrinski and Lori Heffner were formidable

The candidates consists of five Democrats and five Republicans. The Republican candidates are Ron Angle, Peg Ferraro, Glenn Geissinger, Hayden Phillips and Seth Vaughn. All but Angle are incumbents. The Democratic candidates are Ron Heckman, Lori Vargo Heffner, Bill McGee, Peter Melan and Tara Zrinski. You can read about their backgrounds in The Bethlehem Press Voter guide.

Unlike the Executive debate last week, in which Brown and challenger Lamont McClure had the luxury of having 90 seconds to answer a question, the ten candidates were limited to one-minute replies. With ten people answering the same question, it was at times a bit of an echo chamber. It was a situation built for one-liners, and the person who did that best while demonstrating knowledge about the county would have to be considered the winner.

In my view, the winner here was Ron Angle. He was funny, self-deprecatory, fast on his feet, well-informed, willing to mix it up and relaxed.

Before the forum even started, Ron was approached by several League of Women Voter members, who remember him from previous events.

"You're going to be good tonight, aren't you?"

"I'm always good, and when I'm not, I'm great."

When he spied Bill White making his way into the room, Angle told me to bring my camera and then tried to slip Bill a $100 bill for good coverage as people around the duo stood there with their mouths open. .

"You only give me $50," I complained.

"Well, Bill is better."

I tried to photograph the attempted bribe, but all I got was a head shot as Bill laughed Ron off. 

I guess he is better.

Hayden "the colonel" Phillips  

Angle, Heckman, Ferraro and Phillips were clearly the most knowledgeable candidates. I was also very impressed by the passion and fire that Zrinski and Heffner brought. Vaughn, whom I don't like at all, managed to present himself as a likable guy who really cares about people and got some laughter when he spoke about his three children with "one on the way."  Melan seemed to impress people when he described himself as a "city slicker," but his message fell flat with both parties.

I was a bit put off when Geissinger began snickering with Vaughn as Zrinski mentioned that she thought Council needed a woman. It may have been totally unrelated to what Zrinski was saying, but it was bad optics.

Of the ten candidates, McGee has spent the most money and has a good message. But he was clearly uncomfortable speaking to a large audience.

Here's how candidates responded to some of the questions.

Home Rule Charter Study. - By a 6-3 vote, Northampton County Council has voted to support a ballot question asking you, the voter, to decide whether a government study is needed. That study could recommend a return to the Commissioner form of government, could recommend altering the Home Rule Charter or advise that no changes are needed at all. Executive John Brown has vetoed this ordinance, leaving Council with a vote to override it tonight.

Heckman has no problem with putting this question to the voters,  but warns there would be "zero transparency" if the County returned to three-Commissioner rule.

McGee complained about the money involved and said it is best to "leave it alone."  Ferraro said it would cost $500,000. Geissinger said he's opposed to a study. . Zrinski complained a study has no purpose other than to dismantle the Home Rule Charter. "If it's not broken, don't fix it," added Heffner.   

But Phillips and Vaughn called it a "good government" move. "I'm all for it," Phillips said.

Ron Angle said the only reason that both Lehigh and Northampton County have home rule is because it was concocted by a group of industrialists in some back room at the Holiday Inn. He said that Council is nothing more than "the coal firemen on a diesel locomotive. It absolutely needs to be studied."

Ron Heckman

Council attendance - Everyone agreed that Council attendance is very important, both for full council and committee meetings. Melan stressed several times that he has a 100% attendance record on Easton City Council. But that's not saying much. He's only been in office since January 2016. More impressive was Hayden Phillips, who attended 76 of 80 meetings last year and has an overall attendance over the past three years of 83%. Ferraro has an attendance record of 81% over the past three years, while Geissinger (74%) and Vaughn (67%) were hypocritical in their replies. Angle said that in his 12 years on Council, his attendance was almost 100%. "There are two things you can set your watch on. I'll be there, and there will be no tax hike."  .

New Jail - Melan said a new jail is needed and should be located outside of Easton, where he said it is an "eyesore." Phillips, Ferraro, Vaughn and Geissinger all say a new jail is needed, which has been estimated to cost $185 million. Zrinski and Heffner are not so sure. Zrinski complained that Brown awarded a $72,000 contract and no one on Council held him accountable. Heffner added that 40% of the beds are empty and that there has been "no transparency."  Phillips said he will be sponsoring a resolution tonight to ask the National Institute of Corrections for a second opinion before spending a lot of money. Heckman warned, "You're not going to build yourself out of a prison problem," and was incredulous that Brown has conducted a study without even talking to the judges and the DA. "County executives are all Pharaohs and they all want a pyramid," he complained.

"You gotta' love government," observed Angle. He noted that the county wants to spend $180 million on a jail and is fixing 33 brides and is claiming that it has saved us $17 million.

Asked where he'd put a new jail, Angle had a fast answer. "Warren County."

During the jail discussion, Zrinski at one point bragged that she was one of the few candidates to tour the jail. She also credited herself with suggesting a separate jail study by the National Institute of Corrections. Her claim to be one of the few to tour the jail was disputed by several Council members. 

"I've been in the prison many, many times," said Angle, and everyone started laughing, as what he said is not quite what he meant.

"Me, too," wisecracked Heckman, and someone suggested they may have been cell mates.   

Gracedale - No Northampton County debate would be complete unless everyone paid homage to Gracedale, and they all did so. Even Angle. He said that he is a great believer in democracy, and that thanks to John Brown, Gracedale is in the black "I'm not sure why it's even a topic," he suggested. 

Heffner agreed."It's 1/1/17, and I agree with Ron Angle.I don't understand why it's still an issue."

It's still an issue to Zrinski, who said Gracedale is in the black because workers there gave up $3 million in wages. "Why can't we give them back their wages?" she asked.

DaVinci Aquarium. - This is a proposed $130 million aquarium, located in downtown Easton, on a flood plain.  "It's really a science center supporting STEM," said Ferraro.Vaughn said he "can't see a better way to use hotel tax." Phillips supports the idea but not the $15 million that DaVinci wants from the county Geissinger called it a "wonderful project," but that it needs more study and examination. McGee said he is leaning towards it. Melan said he supports it, and that building in a flood plain is no problem. He also said that DaVinci has $1.1 million of the $1.2 million needed for a feasibility study.

That money was supposed to have been raised already, so that is hardly an endorsement

Angle said he always gets skeptical of public private partnerships, and worries about this kind of spending when the county is also looking at 33 bridges, a $180 million jail and is still paying off a $111 million bond. 

"It should be able to fly on its own," he concluded.

Heckman had reservations, too. He warned that developers dazzle you with charts and then give you a bill  Zrinski said she has three children and they all liked shiny new toys. "I don't know if we should be spending taxpayer dollars for a shiny new toy," she said. Noting that the aquarium is in a flood plain, she always instructed her children not to leave their toys out in the rain.

Heffner objected to there being a "county ATM on all the projects for everyone."

Opioid Epidemic - This is one question that had everyone stumped. Angle and several others acknowledged personal experience with it. "If I had just two weeks to live, I'd track down a few drug dealers and kill them." No one really had an answer.

Farmland Preservation - "We fund to the need," explained Philips. "There's not a farm that needs funding that does not get it." Angle, who supports farmland preservation, noted that Upper Mount Bethel has reduced its tax for open space because applications have dropped. 

But Heckman countered, "We can promote it better." Heffner suggested "new initiatives," such as training farmers.  Zrinski complained that Brown has cut finding 84% and said full funding is "imperative" to reduce urban sprawl.

She also complained about sludge, both Class A and B. 

"Are you an expert?" asked Angle, a farmer who has used Class A sludge.

"Not yet."

"Talk to me when you are."

Of the Republicans, I'd rate them from best to worst as Angle, Phillips, Ferraro, Vaughn and Geissinger. Incredibly, Geissinger stood up at the end and said the Democrats basically agreed with the Republicans. That just opened him up to pointing out numerous areas of disagreement.

Of the Democrats, my best to worst is Heckman, Zrinski, Heffner, Melan and McGee.

This forum would never have happened but for Beverly Hernandez and the Northampton County League of Women Voters. We owe her and her group a big thank you. Once again, Lafayette professor John Kincaid added some dignity.

Bethlehem Press Voting Guide Online

This story is about voter guides. When you look at one and see "no response," it's easy to conclude that the candidate in question considers himself too important to speak to the voters. It's only natural to then think unkindly of him (or her). But when collecting information about a large number of people, mistakes happen. I know. I made a mistake. Let me tell you the story.

As most of you know, Northampton County's League of Women Voters has a voter guide that appears online here.* The Bethlehem Press has a guide as well (located here), which I think is very good for the Bethlehem races.

I was asked to do one thing, and that was to get two or three sentences from the 12 NorCo candidates on what each considers the most important issue.

I managed to muck it up.

I had responses from 11 of the 12 candidates (County Council and Lamont McClure), and was waiting for John Brown. While waiting, I sent in the responses for the ten Council candidates and had everything ready for the two exec candidates. Brown did send me an answer, and it was earlier than he said I'd get it. So he did everything right.

When I got Brown's answer, I sent in the profile I had prepared for the exec candidates and simply forgot to copy and paste Brown's reply.

On Wednesday, I looked at the hard copy of The Bethlehem Press, and saw "no response" next to the most important issue question for John Brown.

Although I back McClure in this race, I want him to win fairly, not on the basis of some underhanded trick on my part. So I felt terrible. I immediately asked editors to add Brown's statement to the online addition. They take Wednesdays off, so hopefully it is added there today.

I also emailed Brown to apologize and tried to call him.. I was unable to connect, but did manage to see him late yesterday and apologize.

I expected him to be furious with me. I would have a hard time believing this was just an innocent mistake. But Brown accepted my apology and was pretty magnanimous about it. He even said he should have sent his reply sooner, although he sent it in plenty of time.

This is what he considers the county's most important issue: "The most important issue is protecting taxpayers and seniors by continuing to eliminating waste in county government while improving the services we provide."

I realize that posting this story subjects me to scorn, ridicule and perhaps even some disbelief. That's fine. I deserve it. When I make this kind of mistake, I need to own it.

Fire away!
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*  I know that Lehigh County's League of Women Voters has a voter guide, too, but the only online link I can find is to the primary.  If you have one, please add it in the comments. 

REMINDER: NorCo Council Forum Tonight in Forks!

Last week's debate between Executive candidates Lamont McClure and John Brown was both entertaining and informative. Tonight, we hear from ten Council candidates. Four of them are incumbents seeking re-election. How do they feel about Brown's veto of an ordinance that would ask voters whether they would like to do a home rule study. Is this an exercise of good government or a political stunt? If a stunt,how do they explain an Executive who is increasingly awarding no-bid contracts that are just under the threshold required for Council approval? Will Northampton County Council ignore ethics, which is something that would be addressed in a home rule study?

When are these legislators going to fix the Administrative Code, which has led to litigation several times?

Is Council going to demand that the Executive establish new policies that will prevent the gift card and training abuse that has occurred under John Brown?

The DaVinci Center's Lin Erickson has been a regular at Council meetings. She wants Northampton County Council to kick in $15 million for an aquarium located in a flood plain in downtown Easton, with no independent research on the business plan. Is this a wise use of the taxpayer dollar?

If elected, are they going to do the work and attend the Council and committee meetings? Incumbents seeking re-election have the following attendance record over the past three years: Peg Ferraro -81%; Glenn Geissinger - 74%; Hayden Phillips - 83%; and Seth Vaughn - 67%.

Updated: VanWirt Write-In Should Help McClure

Dr. Paige Van Wirt

Four years ago, when John Brown upset John Callahan in the NorCo County Executive race, he garnered 18,969 votes to Callahan's 17,675. His margin of victory was 1,294 votes. In that race, only 20.01% of the Democrats voted, while 24.98% of the Republicans showed up. If McClure expects to win next week, more Democrats are going to have to vote. He may get his wish, thanks in large part to Dr. Paige Van Wirt's write-in campaign for Bethlehem City Council.

Though she is a write-in candidate and has no legal obligation to follow Pennsylvania's campaign finance laws, she has nevertheless filed a pre-election report indicating that she has spent $7,000 of her own money to snatch one of the four seats up for grabs. Her signs are everywhere. She has sent a mail piece to voters and, best of all, is going door-to-door. She has created excitement in what otherwise would be a sleepy race in a one-party town.

Suddenly there's a race. The beauty of this for McClure is that, no matter whom Bethlehem voters choose for City Council, they'll be giving him their vote in the Executive race.

Four years ago, the Bethlehem Mayoral race was over in the primary. Bob Donchez emerged the victor despite a last-minute endorsement of Willie Reynolds by John Callahan.

Donchez Democrats felt they had been betrayed by Callahan, who had broken a promise to remain neutral.

Callahan paid the price in the general election. While Mayor-elect Bob Donchez was celebrating his victory at Hotel Bethlehem with supporters, Channel 69 announced that the Christmas City incumbent Mayor, John Callahan, had just conceded defeat in his bid to become next Northampton County Executive.

The room, which included about 200 Bethlehem Democrats who had voted for Brown, burst into applause.

Callahan barely won Bethlehem, and was actually defeated in several precincts.

It is unlikely Brown will get many of those votes this time.

Updated 10:38 am: This post has been updated to make clear that Dr. Van Wirt's write-in campaign is for Bethlehem City Council.