Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Steve Lynch: Messenger of Misinformation

In addition to his role as the unopposed GOP nominee for NorCo Exec, Steve Lynch is the owner of  Keystone Alternative Medicine and Weight Loss. Though he has no medical degree, he claims to provide "the most advanced programs, latest and most effective treatments that are optimally customized for the enhancement and improvement of your health and wellness goals." It's little wonder this this huckster, who claims to have a handle on the latest treatments, would also portray himself as a Covid-19 expert. If you'd like to pay a visit to his clinic, get ready for a long drive. The only Keystone Alternative Medicine I can find is located in Oklahoma, and the "alternative medicine" dispensed is weed. This story is about is recent appearance at the Lehigh Valley Tea Party, where this so-called patriot dealt a Covid-19 hand completely full of misinformation. 

You can see Lynch's lie above. He refers the Covid-19 pandemic as "nonsense" and insists the math proves it. He noted that there are 2.6 million deaths peer year, on average, in the US.  He goes on to claim that last year, when we got nailed by the pandemic, the death rate actually dropped instead of increasing for the deaths caused by a novel coronavirus. He concludes that "treasonous" and "treacherous" communists are "cooking the books and changing the numbers around" to hurt patriots. 

The problem with Lynch's math is that it is a complete lie. 

The correct information,as provided by the CDC, is as follows:

1) In 2020, there were 3.3 million deaths in the US. That number could increase slightly as more data trickle in. 

2) In 2019, the year before the pandemic hit us, there were 2.8 million deaths in the US

3) Thus, there were 500,000 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, contrary to the misinformation spewed by Lynch. The death rate increased by 15.9% in the span of just one year. 

4) Covid-19 either caused or was a contributing factor in 375,000 deaths in the US during 2020. 

5) Following heart disease and cancer, Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in the US in 2020. 

Lynch is a huckster, but is no medical expert. He is hawking merchandise and selling memberships, but is no patriot. 

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

The most pertinent data is rarely discussed. CDC tells us:
1) The average number of comorbidities accompanying a COVID death is 4
2) Only 6% of COVID deaths have no significant accompanying comorbidity
3) The average age of COVID dead exceeds the U.S. life expectancy

You've generally got to have one foot in the grave to begin with to die of COVID.

If we had protected the at-risk in nursing homes after stuffing them with the infected as we have always protected the immunodeficient like chemo, advanced AIDS, and lupus patients (or didn't stuff nursing homes with the infected in the first place), we wouldn't be talking about this now.

Healthy people of working age aren't in any meaningful danger and they never were.

In Lehigh County, for example, coroner's and CDC data tell us:
1) We have about 730 confirmed (as opposed to suspected) COVID deaths
2) About 60% of those 730 were nursing home deaths
3) CDC tells us that about 6% of the remaining approximately 290 deaths would have been working age, otherwise healthy people. That's about 18 deaths among healthy, prime-of-life individuals. Total. Out of a 350,000 population.

That's less than traffic deaths for the same period. Even if you double it. Twice.

Moreover, healthy, working age people have a 99+% survival rate (and juveniles' morbidity and mortality numbers are a statistical zero). That begs the question as to why they would take (or be pressured to take in violation of the Nuremberg Codes) an experimental "vaccine," but that's a separate discussion. Indeed, in many ways, giving them such a "vaccine" is like giving chemo drugs to people without cancer.

Clearly, shrieking about "Cases!!!!" doesn't map in any statistically meaningful way to Prime-of-Life morbidity and mortality, and is a metric intended to inflame rather than inform.

Claiming there is any need to restrict the freedoms of healthy, working age people is a hoax and always was. The Free States are indisputably proving that.

Now, who do we hold accountable for the lockdown hoax and for the slaughter of our Seniors, and how do we bring them to justice?

Anonymous said...

One mans messenger can also be that man's messiah.

Anonymous said...

This article just verifies the politicization of the covid virus. It is true that hardly anyone believes anyone or anything any more. Everything has a political slant. The media is corrupt!. The government agencies from the FBI, CIA state department are corrupt. Probably not everyone, but if you pay attention, you see the contradictions endlessly. Is it possible to restore credibility to the basic foundations of the country, I am beginning to doubt if it is possible. The virus is real, but we will probably never know the truth about anything again.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for posting this. This guy is dangerous. Besides the misinformation the visuals of this video tell a story too. The well coiffed speaker has two shirt buttons undone. One button says comfortable and confident. Two buttons crosses over to glamorboy, got it and using it. The thin blue line flag is a warning to people of color.

Corporal Uhuru said...

Based on physical condition I'd venture Steve Lynch to be the clear choice Big Mac-clure needs to stop super sizing his trough refill and schedule a private session with Steve before they cast him as Jabba the hut in future star wars films!

Anonymous said...

A 15 second internet search would show you that he is not associated with the dispensary in Oklahoma that you mention.

Anonymous said...

Lynch and the GOP are simply out of touch with the majority of this county and the country as a whole. Delusional, paranoid, whiney and lacking critical thinking skills.

Anonymous said...

Well we are in serious trouble in this community when Bruce Gilbert endorses a Klan's Man like this
Republicans have no shame and will soon lose many more voters, like me

Bernie O'Hare said...

When a reader wants to post a comment making factual assertions about CDC, I expect links. I have received far too many lies from you conspiracy theorists. What you should be doing now is condemning Lynch's misinformation. Instead, you just submit more lies, hoping one will be believed.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"This article just verifies the politicization of the covid virus."

What this article does is establish Lynch as a purveyor of misinformation.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"A 15 second internet search would show you that he is not associated with the dispensary in Oklahoma that you mention."

Actually, it doesn't, although my point was to establish that the only real business with that name is located in OK. He makes up numerous names, depending ion what he is selling. He is a huckster. Most importantly, his LinkedIn shows that Lynch is misrepresenting himself as some sort of medical professional.

Anonymous said...

Wow, where was the "Tea Party" when Trump was running huge budget deficits?

I expect links: https://gbdeclaration.org/

Anonymous said...

It is disgraceful that the Republican Party in Northampton County would even consider putting someone like this forward for elective office. I'm a Republican, but will be voting either Democratic or leaving spaces blank on the ballot until these crazies are gone from the party.

Bernie O'Hare said...

This story has ZERO to do with deaths in which co-morbidity is a factor. We all know thius. This story deals directly with Lynch's lie that the the number of deaths in the US declined last year. He lied to you, just as he lied on LinkedIn when he held himself out as a medical expert who even engages in telemedicine. Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

Bernie O'Hare said...

1:39, You miss the pointy. The point is that Lynch lies, just like Trump did.

Harvey said...

Steve will be at NorCo courthouse for tomorrow's sentencing to support the Ridge St Stunner I dare you to sit next to him!

Anonymous said...

Lynch has his truth and McClure has his truth. Nothing, nothing gets said or done in the courthouse without McClure's OK. He is the big Bosman. He rules like a King. Don't ever cross him. So you hate Lynch but love McClure. McClure is no more honest than Lynch. Just slick and a different flavor.

Jack Cuervo said...

Steve can bench 2.5 Bernice's for reps while Bernies workouts consist of crusin' the local trails in tights looking for workout partners, McClure is a slob vote for someone who has self respect and 30 inch pythons not a Crimson derigible

Anonymous said...

10:12, Well, no, not the larger point.

I don't think that Lynch's methods are valid, but his conclusions aren't far off from what we see around us. Moreover, I don't think (though I don't *know*) that there is any mendacity in what he is saying, but rather that he does not have a firm grounding in statistics -- something true of the vast majority of the population.

The reason I wanted (hopefully) to bring a bit of clarity to the discussion is that many without a statistics background will see faulty methods such as Lynch's and then leap to the conclusion that the restrictions we are experiencing are justified. That's just as fallacious as Lynch's methods.

We have, as we always have, an immunodeficient population who can die from COVID -- as well as the plain-old-flu and even the common cold. It is incumbent upon them and/or their caregivers to adhere to a prophylactic protocol appropriate to mitigate their level of risk. Healthy, working age people have an entirely different risk profile, and restrictions now and previously in place are largely moot in their case in terms of mitigating serious illness or death. Nowhere is this more true than of juveniles' risk profile whose morbidity and mortality numbers are nearly a statistical zero as can be seen in CDC's weekly death count tally.

The data underlying all that is readily understandable to those with a firm background in statistics or to to anyone who seeks out a basic tutorial. Moreover, that data is being confirmed every day by the Free States. No one can demonstrate a meaningful difference between them and even the most draconian lockdown states or the police state Canada has become.

This is all about data and not at all about Trump. It's not even really about Lynch.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"This is all about data and not at all about Trump. It's not even really about Lynch."

Actually, in the context of this story, it is about Lynch. hE MISLED THE LOCAl tea party with misinformation, and his LinkedIn page dishonestly portrays him as some sort of medical professional who engages in telemedicine.

If you are suggesting the lockdown and decision to shut down the state economy was an over-reaction unsupported by the data, I agree completely and have been highly critical of what Wolf did. His task force, which met behind closed doors, failed to include a single epidemiologist. Although the data concerning community spread entirely justified social distancing and masks, there was no basis for an entire lockdown.

But this story is not about that. It is about misinformation coming from ill-informed people who try to pretend nothing has happened. This is not what I want to see in a county exec.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Steve will be at NorCo courthouse for tomorrow's sentencing to support the Ridge St Stunner I dare you to sit next to him!"

Tricia Mezzacappa, the question is not whether Steve Lynch or I appear at your sentencing. The question is whether you will be there or hiding in your basement, waiting to pick off state troopers, one by one, as you told someone who correctly reported your remarks.

Anonymous said...

two open buttons, check
Jesus piece, check
wild eyes, check
borderline roid rage, check
full of shit, check

What a wet dream for the Dems. Time for the R's to get back in there and engage. Snover has doomed the party with this twit.

Anonymous said...

She's referring to herself as the Ridge St Stunner? Wow.....

Anonymous said...

1.39
" Only 6% of COVID deaths have no significant accompanying comorbidity"
So by your numbers 30 plus thousand healthy people died.
And that means nothing?
"That's less than traffic deaths for the same period. Even if you double it. Twice."
try
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
2019 =36120 dead.
And the numbers would have been higher if you lacked
cops ticketing speeders--(shutdown and occupancy limits)
safety requirements for vehicles, inspections---(masks)
stop signs traffic signals and road design------(6ft spacing and crowd reduction)
"violation of the Nuremberg Codes"-try
https://medicalethicshealthpolicy.med.upenn.edu/in-the-news/nuremberg-code-addresses-experimentation-not-vaccines
"A bogus claim that “[vaccines are in direct violation of The Nuremberg Code” has been circulating on social media."

Anonymous said...

12.05
"but his conclusions aren't far off from what we see around us."
Lynch lied--pretty simple to see.
Kudos for the love of numbers.
However the argument sounds like the fictional Mayor of Amity in "Jaws"
Two people get killed by the shark and the argument becomes "well the other hundreds in the water lived so keep swimming"
with the bonus claim that the two died of blood loss so ignore the shark.

Anonymous said...

I know it's off topic, so I apologize in advance, but this post is about another crazy...

Trish Mezzacappa just posted this regarding the Chauvin conviction:

"George Floyd was a violent criminal thug who deserved a bullet but killed himself by gulping down meth/ fentanyl. Proof positive that jury got it wrong...we must stop glorifying violent criminals, my prayers are with Chauvin and family. #BACKTHEBLUE"

Wow, Trish, you are wickedly unstable. I believe you're going to be sentenced for your crimes in the near future. I was hoping that you get probation and therapy. But, given your state of mind, a short stint in the clink might give you a wake up call...it gave Jim one.

Anonymous said...

@7:04

Who is Jim?

Anonymous said...

The Nuremberg article: https://www.massdevice.com/the-nuremberg-code-and-its-impact-on-clinical-research/

Anonymous said...

@6:30 - Great analogy! I'm totally stealing it!

Anonymous said...

Just to stay on topic,

According to the CDC, there were 2,854,838 total deaths in the US in 2019.

In 2020, that number was ballooned to 3,371,653 deaths.

That’s a difference of 516,815. Ironically, roughly the amount of people that died of COVID in 2020.

If conservatives think COVID is a hoax, they should volunteer at their local hospital COVID unit, without a mask or PPE.

Anonymous said...

try
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm
"COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on the death certificate in 92% of deaths (see Table 1"
and
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/09/cdc-did-not-admit-only-6-of-recorded-deaths-from-covid-19/
"So, it’s misleading to say that 94% of those who died with COVID-19 also had other ailments without explaining that the disease causes other serious illnesses. And it’s wrong to claim that only 6% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths were caused by the disease."

Anonymous said...

It's all just #'s and stats bent this way and that to make people feel better about their stance on what COVID-19 is or isn't.

If life is a game of Russian Roulette, COVID-19 is an extra bullet in the chamber. The main difference is that depending on who you are, how old, etc., some people are playing with different capacity weapons. No matter how you slice it, having the extra bullet makes the game more risky.

Anonymous said...

Steve F Lynch should be no where near any government office, he labels himself as a "Patriot Political Figure", he uses branding from the NeoNazi website VDARE, and he is apparently a Qanon follower as he posts about the "Great Awakening"

Not my blog but this has some information on him.
https://crohlv.noblogs.org/post/2021/01/12/steve-lynch/

His telegram posts are... interesting as well: https://t.me/s/steveflynch

I fear for my well being if our county elects a man like him.

C said...

This is just dangerous. Statistics don’t even take into account the disability suffered by the long haulers. This guy needs to go.

Anonymous said...

9:32 Statistics don't take into account "long haulers" because there are no meaningful statistics on the matter. It's just a vague collection of a few anecdotes that may or may not reflect reality. Usually, such stories are trotted out whenever discussions of the shortcomings of the experimental vaccines are discussed or when it is pointed out that the tiny morbidity and mortality numbers among the healthy, working age segment of the population don't even show that a vaccine is required.

Anonymous said...

4:37 How many COVID deaths do you say are without comborbidity?

Interestingly, the well-regarded Italian data, where socialist healthcare provides no incentive to miscode deaths as being COVID, says it's 4%. Bloomberg has an interesting story here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-26/italy-says-96-of-virus-fatalities-suffered-from-other-illnesses

Also, the very highly regarded study by epidemiologists Palmieri, Andrianou, and Barbario, and Bella, (et al), found the average number of comorbidities among COVID dead to be 3.4.

Moreover Garg, Kim, Whitaker, and O'Halloran (et al) tell us that of those *already hospitalized* by COVID, 89% present with multiple comorbidities. This is consistent with the belief that numbers are even lower among healthy with out multiple comorbidities, because they only require hospitalization much more rarely.

So, what do you say the number of COVID deaths without comorbidity is? Please site your sources and show your math...

Bernie O'Hare said...

"9:32 Statistics don't take into account "long haulers" because there are no meaningful statistics on the matter. It's just a vague collection of a few anecdotes that may or may not reflect reality."Z

You are incorrect. There have been several studies conducted concerning long Covid. I wrote a story about it. A significant percentage of those with Covid experience one lingering system, usually fatigue, for months. Interestingly, one study shows that long haulers improve once vaccinated.

Anonymous said...

8:22 Please present and cite your data. As I said, people often talk about "data" but really can't present it.

I wish I could remember who said it, because they deserve great praise, "The plural of anecdote is not data."

Bernie O'Hare said...

https://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2021/03/what-is-long-covid.html

As I indicated, I wrote about long covid and in my story I link to several studies. You are incorrect. Long covid, like covid itself, exists. It is not merely anecdotal. It appears to be rather pronounced as well.

Anonymous said...

9:20 I may or may not be incorrect, but the studies you present are highly inconclusive and do not demonstrate that one way or the other. There is a vast difference between actually proving something and simply typing a few paragraphs with links to articles.

I've been familiar the the Nature study you cite for some time, and the others are in the same vein. What they all fail to do is simply explicitly map an ordinal count by clinical / demographic groupings of "long haulers" before and after presenting with COVID. Put colloquially, "How many were sick before presenting with COVID and still sick after, and how many were healthy before COVID *but* sick after -- and, in the latter case, how badly and for how long?"

The Nature study *does* say, "prioritization may be considered for those at high risk for post-acute COVID-19, defined as those with severe illness during acute COVID-19 and/or requirement for care in an ICU, advanced age and the presence of organ comorbidities (pre-existing respiratory disease, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, chronic cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, post-organ transplant or active cancer)." That hints at what may actually be the case. That is to say that if one was in poor health before coming down with COVID, one is likely to be in poor health after recovering from COVID itself, and perhaps preexisting comorbidities may be more acute. It is unlikely that COVID would "cure" anyone of pre-existing conditions, as I'm sure we both agree.

Absent a clinical / demographic count mapping of the sort I identify above, the cited studies are saying no more than, in essence, "some people aren't feeling so well after having COVID." That goes back to the very insightful quote, "The plural of anecdote is not data." That is just as true of articles in scientific journals as it is of blog posts -- though less excusable in the former which may have personal and editorial political agendas driving their published findings.

There is nothing to indicate that "long haulers" were simply not properly prophylactically protected from COVID a priori given their comorbidity profile, and there is nothing to indicate that a large (or even known) number of previously healthy post COVID sufferers are in fact "long haulers."

Alas, there are "scientists" who propagandize just as baselessly and remorselessly as politicians...

Bernie O'Hare said...

In other words, you do not like the conclusions reached, so you dismiss them. This is what is wrong with both sides. You don't get to cherry pick. It is what it is. My stories contains links to several studies, and since then, there have been more. Long covid exists.

Anonymous said...

10:28 No, I don't dismiss them, I am correctly pointing out that they fail to enumerate essential data as simple as ordinal counts.

How many people are "long haulers?" 10? 100? 1,000? And, equally important, among them, how many fall into each of the clinical / demographic categories commonly used in COVID analysis? That is not too much to ask of any article published in what purports to be a scientific journal.

Refute, if you can, that there has been no count by clinical / demographic categories supplied by any of the articles. Such data is among the very most fundamental required to come to any sort of meaningful conclusion at all. That is statistics 101. Simply put, if we're talking about tens (especially depending upon their clinical / demographic category), it's statistical noise. Hundreds are too. Even thousands, in a 320 Million U.S. population, may not be meaningful or actionable -- *particularly* if uncategorized.

Don't take it as a personal affront that there are scientists who have failed to live up to their professional responsibilities in presenting a rigorous, meaningful analysis. It's not your fault.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I see. First, you incorrectly claim there are no studies. Then, when I provide a link to a story I wrote that links to several studies, you assert they are not scientific enough. Pardon me, but I find them more persuasive than an anonymous comment from someone who reached conclusions without even bothering to google the topic.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Latest study concerning long covid is here: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/04/22/989874986/people-with-severe-covid-19-have-higher-risk-of-long-term-effects-study-finds

You're just wrong, as I noted at the onset.

Anonymous said...

8.25
try
https://terbiumlabs.com/2016/06/02/the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data-not-evidence/
"YES, THE PLURAL OF ANECDOTE IS DATA.
The negated version of this sentence – ‘the plural of anecdote is not data’ – is often presented as advice in a professional seminar or as an insult in a debate. This is problematic in part because it is wrong, but more because it reflects a misunderstanding of how and why statistical inference works."
http://blog.danwin.com/don-t-forget-the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data/
"You may have heard the phrase the plural of anecdote is not data. It turns out that this is a misquote. The original aphorism, by the political scientist Ray Wolfinger, was just the opposite: The plural of anecdote is data.

Wolfinger’s formulation makes sense: Data does not have a virgin birth. It comes to us from somewhere. Someone set up a procedure to collect and record it. Sometimes this person is a scientist, but she also could be a journalist.