According to a rare editorial from The Institute for the Study of War, it would be a dangerous mistake to assume that Russia will fail in its invasion of Ukraine. "We cannot yet assume a Ukrainian victory, ... and do not know how this war will end. We cannot say that Putin has lost strategically (despite endemic Russian tactical incompetence and repeated operational failures) simply because he has not yet won. Ukraine has inflicted devastating battlefield defeats on Russian forces. The Russian military will struggle to replace its substantial losses for years to come. Ukraine is poised to conduct further counteroffensives in 2023 after the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast culminates. Western unity behind Ukraine remains high, and Putin has lost ground in the global information space. Nonetheless, the Russian military remains dangerous, Putin’s objectives have not changed, and even a partial Russian victory would be crippling for Ukraine."
Here's what Putin has that Ukraine lacks - numbers. Russia has a population of 143 million to Ukraine's 44 million. His strategy is obviously to simply outlast Ukrainian power, hoping that our resolve to continue assisting will fade.
Ancient Rome lost battle after battle, but won wars. Ask Phyrrus. Ask Hannibal. Ask the Sabines. It won because it kept coming back after devastating defeats until its enemy was completely worn out.
So instead of cutting back on aid, now would be a time to double down.
8 comments:
I think we are at a dangerous tipping point here. You mention the vast population difference between Ukraine and Russia. So far, both sides of the conflict have expended ground troops who died in battle. The numbers suggest Ukraine will run out of military age males to call upon to take up arms against Russia. This will happen long before Russia faces the same limitations.
In other words, to continue all this Ukraine will need soldiers from other nations to join in. Many of those will also die on the battlefield. You seem to think American ground troops will not be a part of that build-up. I disagree.
Putin's strategy is to keep coming until Ukraine's will to fight withers, most likely bc the West stops providing assistance. That was a Roman strategy, but the difference here is that Romans were fighting for something. Both Hannibal and Pyrrhus were at their doorstep. The situation in Ukraine is more akin to Vietnam. We were a much larger and better equipped force, but we had no reason to fight, just like the ordinary Russian has no reason to fight.
Robert E Lee employed this strategy. When he invaded the north, his intention was to destroy the union army in a major battle. he was well aware that the war was unpopular in the north and that Lincoln was in dire political straights. He was well aware that the south could never hope to compete with the vast resources and industrial might of the north. So his intention was to stick it to the north at Gettysburg. What he failed to realize is that his invasion did precisely what he hoped to avoid - give the Army iof the Potomac the will to fight.
If Ukraine invaded Russia, it would lose. If we joined the fight, we would lose. But Ukraine can defend itself and has the will to do so with inferior numbers bc its people have a reason to fight. They just need equipment.
Isolationism is not the hallmark of a great nation.
Bernie, I'm in my late 30's with children, and this country has been at war my entire adult life. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and so and and so forth. Everyone is the "next Hitler", every time we send more blood and treasure to only result in some other international humanitarian crisis. I remember hearing about the perils of pushing NATO to Russia's doorstep 20 years ago from my college professors. Now here we are, dumping tens of billions into another war, with more hundreds of thousands dead. Our debt interest payments are going to top $1 trillion a year, Social Security is failing in less than a decade, the middle class is broke, culture fragmented...
And you want to double down on a war with Russia of all countries? Insanity. Absolute insanity. Mark my words, if the Federal Government doubles down on this, it's going to be the straw that breaks the camels back.
What happens when the Ukrainians capture some Russian equipment only to find it was manufactured in China?
I wondering if the Russians are just using up all the Soviet Union made weapons and replenishing them on the back end with aid from China; keeps the secret going if it's not used in this war and being reserved for the next; with a new, big ally.
I don't hear much about traditional air power in this war? Why?
Mother Russia needs good democratic socialist allies from the AOC wing of the D's, my fellow comrades I urge you to stand up against the decadent west and "Join Wagner!"
https://twitter.com/i/status/1619769832156860416
Woke Bloke
How it started: Russia is a dangerous and brutal superpower inflicting genocide on a neighbor.
How it's going: Don't count Russia out.
Being able to suffer is the superpower of the Russian people.
Just some notes:
History tends to repeat itself.
Russian losses in WW2 were staggering. However, in a protracted campaign such as Stalingrad, time worked for the Russians and disregarding horrendous losses, they drove the Germans out.
The Romans suffered from bad field leadership such as generals Varus and Scipio. With a gifted leader, such as Scipio Africanus, Hannibal was defeated.
It can be argued that Lee and Jeff Davis did not intend for a major battle at Gettysburg. But it happened. Lee was not used to fighting that type of battle.
So... in time, the Russians will get better field leadership. Losses will be just a statistic. Time will again be an asset to them.
And, if the Russians really want to commit, Ukraine will fall. Not a desirable outcome for Democracy.
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