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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Thode Predicts Interest Rates Will Continue to Rise

Blogger's Note: Steve Thode has been this blog's go-to numbers cruncher. Here's what he's saying about inflation and our rising interest rates: 

The year-over-year CPI came in at 6.4%. Overall, for the whole basket of goods, inflation increased 0.5% for January over December; the "core" - which removes energy and food - increased 0.4% for January over December. Food, alone, is up 11% year-over-year. That's a reality most of us know all-too-well.

The labor market remains excruciatingly tight, especially among entry level positions. For example, restaurants and retailers are still not fully-staffed. Many chain restaurants continue to block off whole sections of seating because they don't have enough staff; retailers have "darkened" many cash registers due to a lack of cashiers. Please tip as generously as you can when you dine out. Servers have it really tough these days.

Understaffing at low-wage positions pressures employers to raise wages well above the "official" minimum wage. That places upward pressure on wages well up the line. This will become painfully apparent as unions negotiate new contracts. They will demand "catch-up" provisions for inflation already endured by their rank-and-file as well as a boost in real wages. And, good for them!

As I said more than a year ago, I believe the Fed will continue to raise interest rates as long as the job market remains tight.

Curbing inflation will be a long, drawn out process. Or, as Kirk Douglas famously said to Jane Greer about her pending demise in Out of the Past (one of our favorite movies, BTW), "It won't be quick. And it won't be easy."

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Many able-bodied people choose not to work while a vast number of job openings are begging for applicants. Those people aren't starving. There is the problem.

Class Dismissed.

Anonymous said...

Many able-bodied people choose not to work for less than their labor is worth. There I fixed it for you.

It astounds me, how deep capitalist propaganda has grown its roots so deep in American society that its citizens are compelled to do their bidding for them.

It’s telling to me that you’d prefer working class citizens to starve, and be forced out of necessity to work for corporations who exploit their labor for peanuts on the dollar.

Oh, how so christian of you.

Anonymous said...

@3:32 just got schooled hard by @11:08!

The level of dum dums simpletons who regularly post on this blog is astounding.

Anonymous said...

Our working class is profoundly overweight. Obesity and its side effects are the working class's top killer. Top selling book genre: cook books. Second is diet books.

People aren't working for peanuts. Many are doing just fine working on the side and under the table. The black/grey labor market is very strong. It was given a booster shot (pun intended) during CoVid when our government forbade people from working under threat of fines and jail, in some cases. Lesson learned. Get work the government can't prevent you from doing. Same energy as public schools which lost a million students since CoViD. People choose wisely in their best interests. We had a three-year socialism experiment and it didn't fare very well.

Anonymous said...

Let’s cut right to the chase! State and Federal financial assistance, vouchers, rebates, credit, etc., to those ‘unable’ to work can add-up to a sizable sum, particularly for single mothers with kids. Certainly, MOST recipients are deserving, however, it is much too easy to game the system for a very long time. Some, I believe, are quite happy to live at this level rather than find traditional income through employment.

Anonymous said...

Let’s just paint a wide, sweeping brush and categorize every obese person as unhealthy and having the ability to control weight gain. Because this is what you’re doing, you’re generalizing with your limited experiences, because in your world, all your friends are fit and proper, can afford to eat great healthy fresh food and have a job that they love, that makes an enormous amount of money. We know that isn’t true, so why would you come here spewing this crap?

Grow up John, we didn’t ask or need your kindergarten understanding on how the world works.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Let’s just paint a wide, sweeping brush and categorize every obese person as unhealthy and having the ability to control weight gain"

As a formerly obese person, I can say that I struggle every day. If I eat healthy food, I can be satiated with 2,000 calories. If I don't, I'm out of control and feel hungry even after 6,000 calories.

Anonymous said...

I used to be fat and unhealthy. Being fat is a public health emergency. It's our top killer. Travel abroad and spot the Americans from a mile away. We should paint this deadly epidemic with a very broad brush. Fatties don't like to hear this. I know. When I was fat I didn't either.