Friday, November 13, 2020

Thode: NorCo Sets Single Day Record For New Covid-19 Cases

Not all that long ago, I was hoping to report to you that either NorCo or Lehigh went just one day without a new Covid-19 case. Unfortunately, as people begin to congregate indoors in colder weather, the pandemic has gone in the opposite direction. It's attacking the Lehigh Valley with a vengeance. Just yesterday, Northampton County set a record for Covid-19 cases in a single day. Lehigh County is on the verge of doing the same thing. 

Steve Thode is a numbers cruncher who has been following the data since the onset. Here's his latest report. 


As you can see, NorCo had a record number of new COVID cases over the past 14 days (1,018) and a new single-day record on Thursday (133). Meanwhile, Lehigh is at near record levels both on the 14-day number (1,412) and the one-day number (202). For the two counties combined, we haven't seen this number of cases since mid-April. That 14-day number for Lehigh (1,412) is more than seven times the governor's data-driven target for Lehigh to be in the "Green" phase (184); for NorCo, the 14-day number (1,018) is slightly less than seven times the governor's data-driven target for NorCo to be in the "Green" phase (152). Yet, "Green" we remain. So much for "science." Oh, maybe the governor is using "political science."

As for statewide deaths, here's the latest weekly data:


COVID continues to kill the elderly (those over 60 account for 92.7% of all deaths to date) while those under 30 have suffered a tiny percentage of deaths (only 0.2% of all deaths to date). These percentages have held quite steady for months.

As of November 6 (the last weekly report from the state), there had been a total of 8,975 deaths from COVID of which 5,903 (65.8%) died in nursing homes.

And today is Friday the 13th. 

I consider myself lucky. On election day, I spent 14 hours inside a crowded school with about 700 people, and am still virus free. Everyone wore masks and tried to social distance. Unfortunately, my machine operator was missing because he discovered that very morning that he had to quarantine himself after being exposed to an infected co-worker. 

I strongly suggest that you download and use the COVID Alert Pa app. It has been downloaded by 450,000 people and will alert you if you've been exposed. If you wish to avoid another business shutdown, this technology can help. 

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

The snarky comments about the governor's trigger for the green phase are not surprising, but they are uncalled for. The Republicans have been hounding Wolf mercilessly for months, sending out emails about how Wolf is ruing businesses, BLAH BLAH BLAH. Suing right and left. It was announced months ago that if the case numbers rose, that we would not be returning to the yellow or red phases. They have issued updates to policies such as dining and bars - which received criticism too. Frankly I am sick of it. Wolf did 10 times what Trump has done, and I am happy for it. Good God - people can't wear a damned mask and use common sense? Blame the damned president for where we are at - he's the idiot that moaned that people shouldn't have to wear a diaper over their faces and look where we have gotten. Nowhere. But "we are rounding a corner". Yeah, it's called Dead Man's Curve.

Anonymous said...

One thing you keep forgetting to talk about are those that don't die but have long lasting and some permanent damage from COVID. Heart damage, nerve damage, and lung scarring are some of those. It's what makes this virus such a crap shoot and should make everyone want to mask up and keep their distance.

Anonymous said...


The State has changed the way they are handling this.

See

https://www.wesa.fm/post/secretary-levine-pa-not-considering-shutdown-deal-rising-covid-19-cases#stream/0

A November 10 presser describing the new focus.

Anonymous said...

1) No tech will avoid shutdowns, Wolf is drunk on power and we're getting them again, anyway. He can't wait to shut things down. But he's a filthy worm and a follower who waits for Murphy and Cuomo to do the same things first.

2) I'll never trust the Wolf/Levine/Shapiro gang with safeguarding personal information. It will most certainly be used against innocent citizens. He killed our elderly with terrible politically-based decisions. He's ignored science and math while doing so. The suicide rate is 200%, thanks to him, and more are coming as he collapses the economy again. Trust is earned. They've earned none. It's arguably wiser to do exactly opposite of anything Wolf directs. He's a failure and a mass murderer.

Bernie O'Hare said...

12:42, Regardless what Levine may say, we are still under the Governor's lockdown order. Read Judge Stickman's opinion. The only reason the plug has not been pulled is bc Wolf has noticed there are political consequences. He was never driven by science except, as Dr. Thode aptly observes, political science.

6:22, I could argue that Wolf is a mass murderer or that Trump is a mass murderer bc both of them have been terrible and ineffective leaders. Their failures have resulted in many deaths, but it is a bit extreme to call either a mass murderer.

12:40, Yes, I do not talk about it bc I know very little about it and neither does medical science at this point. I've read the same stories you do. It's kinda' scary, but I worry about the difference between providing data that informs on this topic and sensationalizing the virus. I believe this pandemic has been is successful bc too many people, especially younger people, have refused to take it seriously. I know when I was young I though T was invulnerable, too.

6:22, You are unfortunately politicizing a public health issue. I get that Wolf has done so, but you are doing it as well. I do get the distrust. Subscribing to CovidAlertPa in no way compromises your personal privacy. If you are exposed, you get notified on your iPhone so you can take steps to determine whether it is incidental or you were a close contact, i.e. someone who was with the infected person for more than 15 minutes. Please consider downloading the app for your own health and that of those you love. I want you around to tell me I'm full of shit, lol.

Anonymous said...

Bernie isn't there a video of wolf talking about the masks and only put them on for the camera?

Bernie O'Hare said...

Wolf takes his mask off when he speaks on video but has been pretty good about wearing one.

Anonymous said...

I'm old enough to remember when PSP violated the law and kept lists of gun owners from license applications. We were promised they wouldn't. But they did. I hear what they and you say. I'm better instructed by what they've actually done. I wear a mask and avoid crowds and wash my hands and haven't eaten out since mid-March. I have three doctors who've said masks are probably useless, but worth a Pascal's bet. I play along. But I just don't trust my state because they've proven untrustworthy in the past. I've also followed their nonsensical, unscientific edicts via this blog. I guess that's politicizing to those for whom everything is anymore.

Remember, Wolf and Levine felt safe to attend mass gatherings, and Wolf and his chief-of-staff joked that masks were political props. Most peoples' true selves are revealed in candid moments; not in scripted scenarios. The candid moments indicate Levine and Wolf are not sweating CoVid and/or not taking it very seriously. But you want us to follow their direction. C'mon man. That's you politicizing.

Anonymous said...

Can't they just finally call the election for Biden? I mean once that's done and over with I was led to believe that all of this COVID stuff would just magically disappear. Trump himself even said it would happen!

Bernie O'Hare said...

9:58, That narrative, expressed by Trump in the waning days of his campaign, is obviously and demonstrably false. You listened to a liar. Covid is not some political conspiracy theory. It is a pandemic, and it could kill you if you fail to take it seriously.

Anonymous said...

Anyone know where to get a rapid test in SEPA? Looks like the only ones I can find are in other states. What kind of third world commonwealth do we live in? I have two children and my wife showing symptoms and waiting 4-8 days for results is nonsense.

Anonymous said...

10:48. You live in the Covid America that Trump created. Other countries have done way better than us in testing, tracing, etc. Not to mention that they have leaders that embraced masking and distancing. I'm talking about Asian countries in particular. Which is why we are where we are under Trump's "leadership".

Anonymous said...

Wait so COVID is real and Trump lied about it?!? I am now regretting my vote for that man. I spent all that money on hats and flags too. I look like a total imbecile now.

Anonymous said...

2.4 million deaths were the model upon which we took such drastic measures. About 96,000 of those deaths were modeled for PA. We've experienced just a fraction of that. Just 1.98% of our state's population has even contracted the virus and 0.072% of our state's population has succumbed to it. On average, 1.05% of our state's population dies each year. While tragic, our performance against the models we used to craft our response are nothing short of remarkable. I salute Governor Wolf and President Trump.

Anonymous said...

It's not saying much, is it, to argue that we're doing well with COVID in comparison to doing nothing whatsoever. And we're about to find out what it means to do relativgely little.

Gov. Wolf's going to be a hero before you know it.

Anonymous said...

1048-other countries doing better? like ? some of the countries enacted super strict lock downs , had control and then lost it ...back to lock downs again. you can protect those who need protection and still keep the economy moving.

Anonymous said...

EVERYONE needs protection, especially the dead-enders who don't think they do.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I no longer will publish uninformed comments attempting to equate Covid with the flu.

Anonymous said...

This is the eight month anniversary of 15 days to flatten the curve. We should all be dead, right?