11/7, Noon: AP Has Just Declared Biden the Winner in Pa.! What this means is he will be the nxt President of the United States. AP explains why it has called Pa. for Biden here.
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As of midnight, there are 175,880 MIBs left to be counted in Pa.
Donald Trump is still ahead of Joe Biden with 3,285,048 votes to Biden's 3,262,575.
If Biden gets just 60% of these MIBs, he wins. That would give him 3,368,103 votes to Trump's 3,355,400. That would be a paper thin margin of 12,703 votes.
According to WHYY, Biden has been getting about 78% of the MIBs, although percentages differ from county to county. If that average holds, he will win the state by 65,407 votes.
I expect to see Biden declared the victor in Pennsylvania. This will give him the 270 votes he needs for the Presidency.
9 am update: Joe Biden is now ahead with 3,295,044 votes to Trump's 3,289,544. There are 163,501 ballots left to count.
11:40 am: Biden is now up by 8,943 votes. There are still 124,000 ballots to count.
1:45 pm: Biden is now up by 13,306 votes, with 112,796 votes left to tally.
4:45 pm: Biden now leads by 14,520.
8:15 pm: Biden lead is now 18,904, with 102,541 MIBs outstanding.
9:48 pm: Biden lead is now 25,588. Statewide, in-person voting at all but 17 precincts in Philly have been reported.
10:40 pm: Biden now leads by 26,475, with 89,282 MIBs remaining. He has 49.62% of the vote to Trump's 49.23%. If Biden captures just 60% of the remaining MIBs, his margin of victory will be 63,000 votes. If he captures 78%, which was his average yesterday, he will win by 76,473 votes.
11/7, 10 am: As votes trickle in, Biden's lead is now 28,178. For some reason, the state website shows that 89,282 MIBs still remain.
After MIBs are counted, approximately 100,000 provisional ballots will need to be reviewed. That process is unfortunately far more laborious than mere counting because many of the ballots are from people who could be ineligible. They will have to be checked for issues like registration or whether they already voted by mail.
In a brief statement last night, Joe Biden predicted, "We're going to win this race." Instead of taking a victory lap, he is calling for unity. "We may be opponents, but we're not enemies," he declared. "We're Americans. He expressed concerns about the continuing pandemic and 20 million Americans who are unemployed. "We don't have any more time to waste on partisan warfare," he cautions.
It is still mathematically possible for Trump to win in Pa, but I hear the fat lady warming up.
11/7, Noon: AP Has Just Declared Biden the Winner in Pa.! What this means is he will be the nxt President of the United States. AP explains why it has called Pa. for Biden here.
11/8, 2 PM: President-Elect Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is now 42,203. This is nearly the same margin that Trump had against Clinton four years ago. Biden has 3,355,613 votes (49.74%) to Trump's 3,313,410 (49.11%). There are still 55,962 MIBs to be tallied and returns are needed from 12 Philly precincts. There are also an estimated 100,000 provisional ballots.
Originally posted 11/5 at 10:20 pm
71 comments:
The wake-up call to those who voted for Trump should be his attack on the voting process he made to the press. Thankfully nobody in the GOP is standing behind him, or supports his statements. Trump made the history books with that attack on our democracy. The guy is nuts and dangerous.
Sorry, but I refuse to post goofy QAnon conspiracy theories here.
My total is 116,311.
Bernie, does your projection include provisional ballots statewide? The Biden camp is predicting a margin of 175,000 ballots. Do you expect that the provisional ballots will account for another 100,000?
I've read speculation that a lot of provisional ballots are in Philly where many people who requested a MIB decided to vote provisional instead, due to fears of slow delivery by USPS.
It's interesting and unfortunate that both sides have adopted fear of being cheated as a turnout motivator. Trump in 2016 talked endlessly about the election being rigged. I think it was equal parts angering his base to turnout and a rationalization of the loss he expected. The Dems saw how well it worked and did the same this year with the postal service and early voting, as Trump talked MIB fraud. I think people who wouldn't otherwise vote get extra riled up at the prospect of being cheated, and become more likely to cast a ballot. Unfortunately these tactics leave us all meaner and paranoid.
Next election, ballot mailed to everyone. Picked up personally from a harvester near you. No signature. No envelope. No proof of citizenship. One day the "free" food, clothes, shelter, phones, schooling,...." run out. No money to rebuild burnt down buildings. No law enforcement. Ammo supply now getting smaller and smaller in the stores. Get it while you can.
No more mail in ballots! I don't mind people getting their ballots, filling it out, and dropping it in a secure drop box. At 8:00PM when the polls close, the boxes should be removed and the chain of custody recorded and that's it. This counting ballots days later is total bullshit. The mail in nonsense in Philly gives the appearance there is monkey business going on. Appearances matter. No matter who wins the loser feels like they got screwed, whether it's true or not. PA is the laughing stock of the country right now because of Philly.
Northampton County did great and they deserve kudos for a job well done.
Scheller took Wild right to the wire. If this was not a presidential year Wild probably would have lost. Same thing with Conor Lamb out west. This notions that if turnout is high the GOP can't win is nonsense. Pelosi going to have very little room for error in the house now. No more allowing people from moderate districts to vote no on legislation that may not be popular in more moderate districts to protect them. Wild should be on notice, that seat will be a target by the GOP in 2022.
No matter how the news media reacts to announced election tallies, no official certification is made until mid-December. That’s more than a month from now. This should be enough time to sort through all of the mathematical improbabilities we are seeing throughout the nation. Also, to determine if curious behaviors by state election officials are acceptable. Too early to be sure of anything.
11:16pm: Wow, you are wrong. Top Republicans are absolutely standing behind the president. Lindsay Graham, Nikki Halley, many others have public ally stated their support and echoed the voter fraud claims. The Trump family is the face of the Republican Party. That won’t change if defeated. This is not the Republican Party I grew up with that’s for sure.
You should be concerned about this attack on our democracy. Whomever you want to win. Next time it could be the person you supported. It's still not about a person. It's about the process. Voters themselves are saying their votes are showy as not counted in arizona. An elderly woman and her roommate report their ballots were stolen. The process is broken and either way every should be upset about that!
Credit to Trump and Republicans for their turnout exceeding expectations. Hopefully a message to Biden/Dems that this country is very much 2 halves. Biden is talking a good game right now about bipartisanship and even rumored to have some # of Republicans short listed for cabinet slots. Deeds and actions will obviously need to be seen to make it more than standard lip service.
There is a bit of irony if the Electoral College is flipped because of razor thin margins in PA, AZ, GA & NV when it was a similar set up to 2016, but tilted the other way for Trump.
Bernie I agree with your post Wednesday - this election was a repudiation of Trump and a repudiation of the far left/socialism.
I hope everyone listens to that, especially Kamala Harris who will likely be President in a year or two.
"Bernie, does your projection include provisional ballots statewide? The Biden camp is predicting a margin of 175,000 ballots. Do you expect that the provisional ballots will account for another 100,000?"
I doubt it. I think that vote will be mixed.
@6:44 - Respectfully, please read up on what they are counting - you're ranting clearly shows you don't know what is actually happening right now.
They are not backing trucks up with new ballots to count every day. They are simply STILL counting the mountain of ballots that were received prior to the election. If anything direct your anger towards Harrisburg for not allowing the MIB count to start earlier than 7AM on Tuesday.
Philadelphia, as you might or might not know, is the most populated county in the state (nearly double the size of Montgomery, which is #3), so it might just be plausible that they would have the biggest mountain of MIBs to count.
Any ballots received since Tuesday, but with a postmark of November 3rd is being sequestered away from other ballots and this process is taking place in front of both Republican AND Democrat observers. These ballots are not yet part of any official count as there is a court case yet to determine if they should be included.
6:53,
Yes I agree. At the time I posted my statement the GOP was still silent and I expected none would be ignorant enough to echo Trump's false claims and the attack on our democracy. Some of those who are devoted to Trump no matter what he says or does never fail to put Trump's best interest first.
This will all be dragged out for several more weeks. There are numerous lawsuits pending dealing with improper vote handling, including several right here in Pennsylvania. In the end, it might be necessary for the United States Supreme Court to determine definitions and what the law requires. Thousands, maybe even hundreds of thousands of votes will be validated or thrown out. Media announcements mean nothing at this early stage.
5:52 am. Take your meds and try to lose graciously.
I remember protests and demonstrations following Trumps win in 2016 - basically whining about the result of the election, I don't recall any significant or plausible cries of fraud and cheating, mostly "We don't like the Electoral College, we won the popular vote" type stuff. I also recall a lot of my Republican friends being offended by those protests too. Now the shoe is on the other foot and guess who is losing their minds?
We have become a nation of pussies. Whatever happened to simply shaking your opponents hand, saying "Good game", then go watch the film, note your mistakes and what your opponent did/didn't do so you can come back and play better next time?
It's all just temporary. Republicans/Democrats will have yet another national matchup in 2 years for congressional control and another shot at the Presidency in 4. If Trump proved anything, its that our country can handle itself and won't tilt into oblivion because of one person in the White House. Democracy has the ultimate check on power - people voting.
11:03, Here's the thing. The game should be over once the election is over. Democrats and Republicans have continued playing the game long after an election instead of governing. We need to stop the game-playing in Congress and in social media and listen to each other instead of talking at each other. I can name numerous local Democrats and Republicans who are guilty. Now is no time to gloat. The American people have rejected Trump, but not the GOP. The partisanship needs to stop.
Yeah, the "perpetual campaign" is most definitely a case of politicians missing the forest thru the trees.
Term limits and ending gerrymandering would clean up so many problems in American government.
I voted for JJ, hate both parties and enjoy their fighting because the system is elegantly built to stall when the fringes get out of hand. But re: Orange Guy accepting defeat, the last presidential loser was calling her 2016 defeat illegitimate as recently as a week ago. She also recommended her party's nominee absolutely not concede until all challenges have been exhausted; warning us she and Gore should have waited. We can pretend all will come together. But that's not realistic and hasn't been our history. The golden rule of US money politics is to do unto the other side before they do unto you - because they certainly will. The bitterness is not going away. Ds kept it up for four years. Rs are even more pissed. I think the paralysis is very American and very good for Americans of all stripes - even though most don't feel like it. Gridlock in defense of moderation is no vice.
This is looking good for democracy. We are fighting a fascist at its core. With the removal of stonewalls we can see the full investigation of the entire Trump family and everyone involved in his 4 years of hell. Figure the New York DA already has a good head start. I see the lawsuits coming for COVID deaths being filed against the cash broke president soon after he leaves office. He KNEW and nothing. His own words. He knew he was on record and still said it. Im sure his own rantings will work wonderfully in so many lawsuits against him in his orange jumpsuit. "You have the right to remain silent. Everything you say can and will be used against you." He had the right... just not the ability.
Personally, I think inciting protests over the counting of votes should be considered a high crime against the country. Maybe even treason. He is interfering with the process. There were no protests outside offices before he opened his mouth.
Biden will win PA, probably Nevada and Arizona! Georgia is a surprise, will wait on that one!
I also believe that the American Public has spoken, and Democracy has won! Yes Trump is behind over 4 million votes behind Biden, May end up more! Most vireos ever for Biden! He is a moderate, and needs to stay that course! That seems to be the message from the voters! But also try to settle people does try to unite! No more dividing!
A number of Democratic House seats have been lost too, so a message to Nancy Pelosi! Maybe time for new leadership there?
I just wish there were term limits, to get rid of Pelosi, Shumer, McConnel and Graham! But not yet!
No, here’s the thing . . . If an election is thought to be flawed, perhaps even due to illegal acts, it is imperative to take all the available time to gather and present evidence, one way or the other. This particular election is of extreme importance, even beyond America.
Wild and Zrinski ran vicious campaigns with lots of outside cash. They called their opponents everything but their names. You admired Charlie Dent for running brutal campaigns. Your call for an end to partisanship rings a bit hollow. The winners always want to believe their reign will bring peace. And they always find out that's fantasy.
70m people voted for trump. So not all of the people rejected him as you say. That's the problem here. Ignoring a huge part of the country
No evidence can be presented. That's the thing. The potential point of fraud is the opening of the envelope and privacy envelope, when it's not observed by representatives of each side. If either side was prevented from legally observing these operations, that's unfair and undermines the process. Northampton County runs a tight ship and transparently announced 1,900 or about 3% were rejected. They had it wrapped by 6 the next morning! The county is a statewide model. I'll bet that 3% is a pretty fair number statewide. What were those numbers in each county? I expect that would put a lot of suspicions to bed - or raise flags about how some counts were conducted.
1:46,the American people have rejected trump by at least 3 million. Many of the millions who voted for him do not really like him.
It's about what those who voted for him stand for bernie. It's not about if we like him or hate him. It's 70million people who believe in the policies of the republican party. Almost half the voters do not want what the Democratic party will bring. That's significant.
1:40 I think you are incorrect about Susan Wild calling her opponent names. She could have easily taken her campaign negative and attacked her opponent's past but did not.
1) I will no longer publish comments that play into the tribalism that has consumed this nation.
2) I will no longer host comments alleging voter fraud unless backed up by concrete evidence.
The rest of the world is watching . Iranians flexing production to interfere with opec . Israel will suffer under Biden if confirmed .too much ambiguity in “mail in count” . Should have insisted on Absentee Ballot s and the litmus test to get one. Or show up . This election can in of the danger the world. Not just here . I’m going to say Forks and Palmer transfers from N.J. And N.Y. Are brought their lousiest politics here that they wanted to escape. So I’m warning you all , this block will make you all Patterson , and Plainfield N.J. Shortly. Thank your devethat will leave for another state and leave a financial mess here.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
It's about what those who voted for him stand for bernie. It's not about if we like him or hate him. It's 70million people who believe in the policies of the republican party. Almost half the voters do not want what the Democratic party will bring. That's significant.
November 6, 2020 at 3:13 PM
Yes, and four years ago more than half didn't want Trump's policies--but we got them.
Agree with 8:06 regarding two halves. Let's see what the next four years will bring.
Betting Harris with be President within this time period.
9:11, You really have no basis for that pronouncement. None. This was just one of the many goofy arguments made during the campaign, and it was designed to make you afraid of seeing a black woman as President. It's time to drop unsubstantiated nonsense that appeals to your darker side, don't you think? And it's time for left leaning people to listen when you make some very valid points. I think we can find common ground but we need to be reasonable.
I anticipate by 1130 we will have a new president. Biden isn't staying up that late without knowing already what state will be done and give him the votes. As I sat outside looking at our great flag I couldn't help but think we aren't the United States at this moment we are so divided. It is asked that we all be gracious and all I can think is about the last four years and how every day the United States media and democrats attacked our president. Beginning on day one. And still almost half our our country voted for him again. I wish I believed biden could unite us. But I don't. But I know those who supported our president won't attack biden every day as was done to president trump. That's the difference between the parties. I've supported every president. After all they are the people's president but this time it's different. I can not support what they want to change in our great country. What my father fought for in wwii. I will go to sleep praying for this country and our continued freedoms
9:47,
"But I know those who supported our president won't attack biden every day as was done to president trump."
Of course they won't. Look how supportive his white nationalist base was of Obama.
I guess you expect the President to drop his mail in ballot off too as well as the troops to leave the combat zone to drop their ballots off? 🙄
Reconciliation starts with a smile, the showing of an empty hand followed by a shake that leads us to accept and embrace our differences and stand together...if only we had permission.
One unintended consequence of our president railing about mail-in voting a nd fraud is that most county election offices have bent over backwards to insure a fair and transparant vote count. He scared the shot out of everyone by harping about election fraud so almost every election. official, republican an d democrat bent over backwards to make sure there were n o repeats of the Florida debacle of years ago.
A retort to my comment at 9:39 is deleted bc all it does is confirm I was correct.
Being declared winner by any of the news organizations is not the final validation/certification. For now, this is just an opinion.
Folks need to just settle down and wait for the count and the remaining legal procedures to be completed and prepared to accept the results.
Might I suggest a short film from 1968 to briefly take your mind off this moment in time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCSdNUWNefA - The News-Benders
Statistically Improbable
12:34 Your film was posted by Когдат Резвый . Talk about News Benders. And it is a 28-minute film.
Ding dong, the witch is dead! Let the flying monkeys return to their cages.
Who is Trump golfing with today?
Being declared winner by any of the news organizations is not the final validation/certification. For now, this is just an opinion.
Name an election in the last 50 years where a declared winner in a presidential election was reversed. The one thing networks want to get right, to maintain credibility, is the presidential election.
I decline to publish the conspiracy theories. If you want to make a factual observation about election results, I expect links so I can check if what you are saying is true.
I guess Trump got tired of winning.
You were correct Bernie in suggesting that not many mail-in ballots would be returned Wed-Fri, postmarked by Election Day. It was less than 8,000 statewide. Since that number will very likely not change the outcome, the only case currently before the Supreme Court appears to be moot.
@12:16 "Being declared winner by any of the news organizations is not the final validation/certification. For now, this is just an opinion."
Er - in this case the news organizations are unanimous is recognizing the extremely high probability of the outcome. Let's further consider that the unlikely did happen and one state were reversed. That will not change the outcome. It's over now. It is a very informed opinion. And no, the courts are not going to save the day either - primarily for the same reason - no one state will change the outcome as happened in 2000.
I love it how--according to Sean Hannity, at least--Fox News calling Arizona so early for Trump was evidence of some sort of conspiracy against Trump.
Fox News? Seriously?
Name an election in the last 50 years where a declared winner in a presidential election was reversed. The one thing networks want to get right, to maintain credibility, is the presidential election.
November 7, 2020 at 2:24 PM
Gore
Several media outlets, but not AP, called the race for Gore and ended up with egg on their face. The mistake made was relying on exit polls. AP has been more careful than most news outlets. It is mathematically possible for Trump to still win in Pa based on provisional and military ballots. AP explains why it made the call in the link above.
@ November 7, 2020 at 11:27 PM,
Try fact-checking yourself. Bush was the declared winner. The networks had it right unless we all missed a Gore administration.
Being a Democrat in this area, I'm in the minority. Most of family, friends and neighbors are Republican. It has been eye-opening getting to know their real personalities and thought processes these past four years. It's even more mind blowing when they believe that I'm also Republican, the sh*t that comes out of their mouths. Just yesterday, a good, female friend of mine posted this on Facebook:
"Biden will never be my President. I will never except a pedo with dementia as my President. Plus ill never except Kamal- a whore that slept her way into office and all of a sudden turned black instead of Indian to get voted in she is pathetic."
I am aghast, not only because of her post, but several other friends and family have been saying many similar things behind closed doors, and publicly. Trump's "presidency" should have been over when he mocked a disabled reporter, not to mention his John McCain comments.
I'm sorry, but there is something seriously wrong with the Republican party.
12:02
When the votes were finally counted in Florida, Gore won. AP and 8 authoritarian news outlets got it wrong blaming the failure on Al Gore himself for not requesting a full statewide recount.
AP: A vote-by-vote review of untallied ballots in the 2000 Florida presidential election indicates George W. Bush would have narrowly prevailed in the partial recounts sought by Al Gore, but Gore might have reversed the outcome – by the barest of margins – had he pursued and gained a complete statewide recount.
As AP explains it in the case of Gore V. Bush, Trump needs to accept the fact that he only has one way to win, where as Biden has, as Chuck Schumer put it, six ways to Sunday.
10:50, I've made clear I will no longer accept tribal comments. In addition, what you post is completely off topic.
Highly Statistically Improbable!
@LVCitzen 295. Apparently you do not know the difference between an absentee ballot and an election where everyone's allowed to vote by mail. The President and our overseas military vote by absentee ballot.
One un-happy democrat today amongst the many millions of happy ones, commissioner Mike Hudak in Bethlehem Twp, charged with reckless driving yesterday by one of his own township officers.
James Neara, I have made clear several times that I am rejecting all tribal comments. That includes your sweeping generalizations about Rs. It is time to stop that now and solve our problems. That happens only if we work together.
This Republic is dead soon. The counterfeit votes are what sticks. I’m going to accept what happens which caution. Here’s what I say, II,m not giving up my 2A rights ,I will not assault a protester but will defend my home and neighbors from obvious attacks from subversives . It’s on them if they try . We’re in trouble now , the leftest many don’t Evan pay any taxes. Iwill gain control of the White House ,they will get in like rats.
Trump and his minions can make whatever outrageous claims they want about the voting, but soon enough they'll have to offer proof in court and that is not going to go well for them.
Peter - you are overreacting a bit. You can be disappointed that Trump lost, but succumbing to the unwarranted fearmongering that Dems want to take your guns away is silly and pointless. Add in the fever dream hero fantasy of using your guns to protect your neighborhood from some imagined rampaging hoard of angry leftists - its just not going to happen, you're giving leftists far too much credit/validation.
The sky is not falling down.
Stop listening or more importantly believing in NRA generated ghost stories. Think rationally about the legal and practical impossibilities that anything close to that scenario will occur in your lifetime/next 40 years.
The lawsuits are basically just further fundraising mechanisms for Trump. He won't concede, he'll throw a few legal Hail Mary's then use their failures as a crutch for his ego, so he can leave the White House with a barest and flimsiest thread of plausibility his hardest core believers can cling to that he was "cheated". All conveniently ignoring 2 popular vote loses and the fact that Republican Senators and Representatives across the country out performed him.
Trump will now move onto attempting to build out some form of a media empire "MAGA TV", but will be hamstrung in this attempt because of the numerous upcoming legal battles he faces along with an inability to access the capital he'll need as no bank will be willing to lend him money.
He'll continue to "tour" the country to conduct his rallies, but these will fade in size and relevance once the economic reality of holding them without a continuous flood of fundraising and taxpayer dollars to support their costs dries up and more so that the networks, (even Fox News) won't bother covering the rallies anymore depriving him of the oxygen and attention he craves.
Fraud is impossible to prove. If you're not cheating you're not trying to win. Trump should drag it out. Hillary advised Biden to not concede until all lawsuits were resolved. Until last week, she was still calling Trump's presidency illegitimate and a Russian plot. Nobody seemed concerned. Now, there's a problem with questioning an election's legitimacy? Goose/gander. I'm with ---->her. Biden's election was plot and he's not my president and his looks are funny and all that good stuff for the next four years. It's like when Rs hated the nuclear option until they gained control of it and jammed the federal judiciary with hundreds of new judges. It's like Ds decrying Citizens United until they learned how to use it became the party of the rich in two years. Politics comes at you fast.
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