According to figures supplied by Northampton County, 84,913 voters have requested MIBs (mail-in ballots). It is expected that 80% (the county is already at 74.3%) will be returned by election day. That amounts to 67,930 votes. It is also known that about 70%, or 47,551, of these MIBs are coming from Democrats. I believe these will be votes for Biden. About 24%, or 16,303 votes, are coming from others. I'll assume that half of those, or 8,000, are Biden votes. This means Biden probably has 55,551 votes going into election day. Is this enough for Biden to win the county that Trump won by 5,461 votes on election day in 2016? Yes.
In 2016, there was a voter turnout of 70%, or 146,381. If turnout is 70% on November 3, that means there will be 159,120 voters. The winner needs to garner a plurality of these votes. The winner needs about 78,000 votes. So Biden needs about 22,449 voters on election day.
Northampton County has about 102,000 registered Democrats. We know 47,551 have sent in MIBs. We know about 10,000 of the registered Democrats are inactive, meaning that there are really only about 92,000 active registered Democrats. Of that 92,000, about 44,000 declined to send in MIBs. If 70% of these Democrats show up on election day and vote Biden to mirror the 2016 turnout, that translates to an additional 30,800 votes. If my assumptions are basically right, he will get about 86,351 votes.
This gives him a big win.
Have I just given him my famous Kiss of Death? We shall see.
My assumptions:
1) MIB return rate of 80% (67,930)
2) Democrats account for 70% of MIBs and vote Biden (47,551)
3) Half of Other MIBs vote for Biden (8,000)
4) November 3 turnout of 70%, (159,120)
5) 70% of active Dems who failed to send in MIBs will vote in person for Biden. (30,800)
Biden's Total - 55,551 MIBs plus 30,800 in-person = 86,351 votes.
This is 54% of the total.
94 comments:
https://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2016/11/why-trump-might-win-despite-polls.html?m=0
You are citing a four year old post about polling. This has nothing to do with polling and assumes the turnout will be just as big as it was in 2016.
Yes, Bernie you are right, “kiss of death“.
Three weeks ago I believe you said that Biden would lose, based on yard signs for Trump. Which way will the wind be blowing tomorrow is what I am wondering.
One huge flaw, is that you assume those registered democrats are all going to vote for Biden. It is a fact that a substantial number will be voting for Trump.
This is a NATIONAL election. For all anyone can tell, using any metrics of their choice, it is possible NC could switch. It is much more possible, gains elsewhere, including Philadelphia of all places, will be of greater impact on the state outcome.
I read polls, but ignore them in favor of what my own eyes and ears decide for me. All I see, everywhere throughout the nation, is a massive enthusiasm gap between the candidates, unlike anything seen before. See for yourself. But don’t look for it on your usual evening news program.
Rethink your percentages. My wife and I are registered Democrats. We voted by mail in ballots. We did not vote for Biden.
Well I guess you will get what you want - once they 25th amendment Biden, lets see how quick they regulate your blog
It's sad to think we're voting the endless war gang back in office. Republican and Democrat presidents have sent thousands to die - including the last guy who won some peace prize. I'm a work and church person who doesn't like Trump and his terrible morals and phony front. But his actions regarding peace agreements and NOT sending our kids to die in foreign wars neutralizes everything else. What in God's name is more important than that to everyone? That used to mean something to Americans of both parties. I suspect if he loses, we'll be right back in the war business, killing and being killed.
Mail in ballots should far exceed registered voters which assures a win. Brilliant strategy!
The Trump "campaign" has been a disaster train wreck. He is going to leave the Republican party broken and shattered like he left the Plaza and Taj in AC. A blue tsunami is coming.
I do assume that Ds will be voting Biden.
Thanks for posting this! I'll show all my dem friends that Joe's got it in the bag, so the procrastinators don't have to bother going out in the cold Tuesday to vote. Instead, I'll lock CNN into the TV, and we can wait for the news that Hillary Clinton was rushed to the hospital that night with extreme stomach pain.
Not so fast! In 2016, Trump was a newcomer with no record of national leadership or list of accomplishments. He had the same personality then as he has now. Good possibility, the population living west of the Mississippi River in 2016 knew very little of his abilities. The man was much more of a ‘risky’ pick in 2016.
Not in 2020!
Trump has a strong Presidential record to stand on this time. The evidence on the ground clearly shows his national appeal. Millions can’t stand the guy, and never will. Those Party-First types are NOT in the majority, in my opinion. The statistics from each of the rallies shows, on average, one fourth of audience attendees were Democrats. Many of those ballots mailed in by Democrats will be votes for Trump.
"Three weeks ago I believe you said that Biden would lose, based on yard signs for Trump. Which way will the wind be blowing tomorrow is what I am wondering."
I don't believe I said Trump was going to win but was very concerned. I still am very concerned. His support is quite enthusiastic. But based on the early voting AND MIBs, I think it's safe to say that most Ds will be voting Biden and he will win with about 54%. This assumes that 70% of Ds who did not submit MIBs and who are active voters will show up. If any of my assumptions are wrong, that could affect the final vote. The Ds whop failed to apply for MIBs might sit at home. GOP turnout could be 80%. But I suspect I'm mostly right.
"Thanks for posting this! I'll show all my dem friends that Joe's got it in the bag,"
My conclusion assumes a 70% turnout by Dems.
I don’t believe PA and Norco are nearly as critical as the media and experts say. It is very difficult to unseat an incumbent. People fear change. I expect Trump to roll easily to re-election. I wouldn’t vote for him with a 10-foot ballot. But I believe polling has become obsolete and highly error prone in the digital age. Sadly another 4 years of this chump.
8:34, We shall see. I believe that nearly all the D votes will be for Biden, and about 10% of the R votes. The Ds who supported Trump are the ones who left the Dem party to join the R party. Biden will get the senior vote, which usually goes to Rs. They resent the attacks at Biden's mental acuity and are disgusted by the way Trump handled Covid. As you say, Trump now has a record. Biden will get the young vote, the black vote, the Latin vote and women. Trump will get middle-aged white men.
Chris E, My post is not really based on polls. It is based on the MIBs, party registration statistics and the turnout in 2016. I believe Biden will win NorCo.
A lot of assumptions there. We know that Trump supporters will crawl through glass to vote. I do believe there is some truth to the anonymous Trump voter who doesn't advertise it out of fear of reprisal. You could be right Bernie, but this election is such a wild card IMO. Polling is all over the place. I have talked to a couple of democrats, middle aged people like me, who quietly say they are voting for Trump, even though they do not like him personally. Having said that, I think Biden will win, but it will be closer than 54%, more like 52% or even 51%. The virus, and Trumps response to is what cooked Trumps goose.
Your analysis is as good as anyone else's at this point, including the so called experts. Political pros are like weathermen, they can be wrong and still keep their job LOL.
Your theory while admirable is flawed in one important way. That is many Democrats did and will vote for Trump again. It will come down to how many of those Democrats who voted for Trump last time decide to vote for someone who is honest and has integrity. While the numbers look good for democrats its not a sure thing.
The Spokesman-Review newspaper of Spokane, Washington has endorsed Trump even though he is a "wretched human being" LOL. I talk to a lot of people who feel this way, but like many of Trumps policies. I think Biden wins by the popular vote by 5 but loses Florida and NC. PA goes to Biden giving him the win.
My other prediction is as soon as Trump is gone, you'll see the media turn on Biden, they want Harris to be president.
Bernie I’m sorry I know for a fact that some of the most loyal Democrats in Northampton County are voting for Trump. Many of these Democrats are embarrassed to be Democrats because of the Democratic Party in Washington. Does John Morganelli fall into this category, it’s a possibility because he switch to be an independent after a life long time of being a lifelong democrat and it’s not because he is the county judge. Many of these longtime Democrats are not switching to the republican party in Northampton County Because of the make up of the Republican leader ship in Northampton County. This is a truth and truth over facts, come on man.
The word “China” gets little mention here, nor on the network news. However, China’s behavior with its residents is revolting to many Pennsylvanians. Let’s just say “China” is well-connected to our present and current politicians. This factor has far greater significance in 2020 than it did in 2016. I believe Pennsylvania voters, regardless of political party registration, will want to stay as far away from that component with the voting choice.
9:06 and 9:08, I am making assumptions and you know what they say about people who make assumptions. If a large number of Dems vote for Trump, I'm off. Let's say that only 90% of the Dem votes are for Biden. That knocks his total down to 77,715, below the 78,000 votes he needs. But I think it is likely he will pick up some R votes and about half of the independents. His margin of victory will be smaller, but I think he still wins a majority.
I have watched all of Trumps rallys. The crowds were enourmous.So you can't trust the polls but if you watch his rallys There sure are a lot of people there.So as they say " It ain't over till the fat lady sings "signed A Trump supporter
Interesting analysis Bernie. I would maybe scale it back a little bit, if only because there are probably some "Legacy" registered Dems, who haven't voted that way in many years, but simply haven't switched affiliations. These aren't "Super Voters", but the every 4 years types who get off their couches for Presidential elections.
As for perceived enthusiasm - lets not put a lot of stock in the recent rallies. There is absolutely no doubt that Trump will get at minimum 40-45% of the vote. He certainly has a core of voters that clearly will not abandon him.
Trump won on the backs of independents and moderates in 2016. They're gone and not coming back.
We're most likely looking at a popular and electoral landslide similar to when Reagan destroyed Carter in 1980.
Your assertion that the Ds who supported Trump are the ones who left the D party to join the R party is flawed. If you have access, look at the data on Morning Call's Northampton County map: https://www.mcall.com/news/elections/mc-nws-northampton-county-trump-reelection-analysis-20201028-66pdu7ewxbgythfsoag3fr4u4m-htmlstory.html. Look at 2016 and 2020 D and R registration in Norco's #1 D stronghold, City of Bethlehem. There is almost no change. Then look at 2016 election results and note Trump's significant over performance relative to party registration. I doubt many Bethlehem City Ds that voted for Trump switched registration. That would be against their self-interest assuming they want to have a voice in local elections. You're wildly off the mark to base a prediction on the assumption that every D MIB is for Biden and 70% of the those Ds that don't vote by mail will go to the polls and all vote Biden on City of Bethlehem alone.
You could be right, but my anaLYSIS also assumes that all Rs and All independents who appear personally at the polls will vote for Trump. As I indicate above, it is likely that Biden will get some R votes and about half of the indies. So my percentage could be off, but I think he still gets a majority of the votes, not just a plurality.
And I really doubt that there will be many Dem defectors because they are constantly insulted by Trump and my Republicans who comment here.
Muhlenberg College did a survey in the 7th Congressional district and in Northampton County had Trump 49% Biden 46% Other 5%. There is no way even if this poll is off that Biden is walking away with 54% of the vote. TDS is hitting you hard.
I see. We are told to ignore the polls except when favorable to Trump. I actually posted about that poll. It showed Trump with a three-point lead, and this was before the NYT revelation that he pays no taxes and before he contracted Covid-19 and then defiantly ripped off his mask. The poll itself is a snapshot in time, and states it has a 5-point margin of error.
My post is not based on a poll but is based on the votes that have come in, voter registration statistics and the 2016 turnout.
I’m sorry I know for a fact that some of the most loyal Democrats in Northampton County are voting for Trump. Many of these Democrats are embarrassed to be Democrats because of the Democratic Party in Washington.
I know intelligent Republicans who are voting for Biden. Many of these Republicans are embarrassed for having supported Trump. They saw the light when he failed the country at the start of the pandemic, his racism, and has used the presidency to serve his self-interests.
Trump will put the country into chaos when he challenges the election results, trying to divide the country more than he has already.
Rallies - Trump wants to downplay and ignore COVID-19 because it is a political weak spot for him. Therefore he presses forward with his rallies and local supporters and campaign advance teams set them up and invite thousands to come, most of who share a similar view of COVID-19 and are happily willing to cheer Trump on in person.
Biden has been dunking on Trump for 6 months about COVID-19. Biden would look incredibly foolish in asking people to come out in large groups and blatantly ignoring his own calls for caution.
Most people have made up their minds at this point - there are VERY few undecideds at this point (a big difference from 2016), and in the case of Biden voters, they made it up a long time ago and are just patiently waiting for next week. After the last 4 years, and particularly the past 6 months, I don't think there is much enthusiasm in general for anything.
Hey! I am one of your republicans who comment here! I look to insult no one! I like the back and forth and try to respect everyone's views. I am not a big Trump fan, but I do like some of his policies. Biden makes me nervous, likable enough guy, but I do feel he will be pushed way left. Plus, he is 78, has lots of baggage, his son and the China stuff will be a continuing problem.
I love what the governor candidates did in Utah. They made a joint commercial reminding us that we are all amercians and the vitriolic nonsense has to stop. The left side will say well it's all Trump, but there is plenty coming from the far left as well. Everybody is guilty, and social media makes it 100 times worse!
@10:39 - As a Democrat, I support your post 100%. As a country we can all do better.
Agree. I get lots of comments that get really derogatory about Democrats, referring to them as Demorats. I also get numerous comments slamming Republicans. This is a violation of my comments policy, and when I refuse to publish, I get more comments accusing me of censorship. I really dislike the tribalism. Trump's divisive behavior and name-calling has really accelerated this tendency.
"I believe that nearly all the D votes will be for Biden, and about 10% of the R votes."
Ridiculous. Trump didn't win NorCo or PA with R votes alone. He needed lots of Ds. And all you've done for four years is call those Ds racist morons. Not exactly the best re-homing strategy and you just can't grasp Ds voting for La Grande Orange - as they did in large numbers four years ago. Ds aren't coming home and Rs have tons of new registrations and will crawl over broken glass in a tornado to vote in person on Tuesday.
Bernie we need an elected Sheriff...make it happen
Side note: I just googled why are Democrats always miserable while most Republicans are happy? Boy oh boy, did a lot of articles come up. Bernie just look in the mirror for your answer. As I walk along bike paths every day I see 10-20 people and it is so easy to pick out the democrats from the republicans and I would say I am probably 85-90% correct. Out in nature where there are minimal people , the Dems always have a mask on. Why???? I have no clue, They even wear a mask when they are alone in the car. I see high school children walking home from Liberty HS, and those with Dem parents have a mask on even though no one is near them and they are by themselves. Talk about paranoid. Republican don't wear masks while walking on bike paths! Dems don't say hi, hello, good morning good afternoon. Most republicans do. Its like I can even smell them when I go for my 4 mile walk. Oh,--the Tatamy -Palmer trail has more Republicans that the Riverview trail at 25th street and Freemansburg highway. I attribute that to demographics.
I couldn't imagine leading that kind of miserable life, being mad at the world because their entitlement to whatever didn't happen. Or their little Johnny or Suzie didn't get their participation trophy for their coloring project at school. What a sad existence you people have.
Question to you Bernie about the MIBs. Do they open them when they get them, and stack the ballots so they can begin scanning them right away? Second question is, will they start counting them right after midnight november 3rd, or do they have to wait until the polls close?
It is what it is and I won’t whine or complain about the outcome, BUT anyone who thinks Joe will serve a full-term is crazy. The deal has been made — he’ll resign and Harris will be president. Couple a Harris administration with a media that will shield her and America will come out the big loser.
"Question to you Bernie about the MIBs. Do they open them when they get them, and stack the ballots so they can begin scanning them right away? Second question is, will they start counting them right after midnight november 3rd, or do they have to wait until the polls close?"
No. They do not open the envelopes but store them until 7 am election day. That is when they begin counting. They need to open two envelopes, and I believe they have a machine to assist in that process. Then they need to flatten and scan the ballots. My guess is that they will try to complete the task, but think it's unlikely they will be finished until very late Tuesday or sometime Wednesday. In addition to scanning the MIBs they will be getting the in-person counts as well. It is going to be busy.
@12:08, I run that path 3 or 4 times a week for the last 15 years, weather permitting. It's funny, you see the same faces, and I say hi to everyone, and yes, I am a republican LOL. I will say this though, most people do say hi back, and many of them I have actually had conversations with. My older friend that rides the red bike for miles and miles back and forth, he always has a smile for me. His accent is perhaps Ukrainian or Slavic. To this day I do not know his name. Great guy. I have even seen you down there BO but you looked grumpy so I avoided you LOL.
"Out in nature where there are minimal people , the Dems always have a mask on. Why???? I have no clue, They even wear a mask when they are alone in the car. I see high school children walking home from Liberty HS, and those with Dem parents have a mask on even though no one is near them and they are by themselves. Talk about paranoid"
You're mistaken. Perhaps you are paranoid yourself, lol. I am outside quite a bit, probably much more than you are. I do not wear a mask unless I am going into a business. I sometimes cycle with Democrats who are far more left-leaning than I. None of them wears a mask. It is not necessary if you are not in contact with another person. I sometimes wear a mask inside my car because I am getting senile and forget. If I am running or walking and people are coming at me in the opposite direction, I give them a wide berth. I wear a mask inside any business I visit and at the gym. If someone at the gym is not wearing one, I ask him or her nicely to put it on and thank them when they do. Unfortunately, Trump has politicized mask wearing. I notice that, after the superspreader in the Rose garden, many more Rs have dropped their objections to masks. I am outside every day unless it is raining like today. Now that it is getting colder, I will soon begin wearing a balaclava that covers mouth and nose. This is something I have pretty much always done bc the cold air makes me cough unless I warm it up.
Dems probably still wear masks more frequently than Rs, but don't be so quick to generalize. People are taking me to task, and rightly, for assuming all Dems will vote for Biden. You are making assumptions just like I did, lol.
Hope to see you on the trails. But not today.
I also wear my mask on a bus.
"@12:08, I run that path 3 or 4 times a week for the last 15 years, weather permitting. It's funny, you see the same faces, and I say hi to everyone, and yes, I am a republican LOL. I will say this though, most people do say hi back, and many of them I have actually had conversations with. My older friend that rides the red bike for miles and miles back and forth, he always has a smile for me. His accent is perhaps Ukrainian or Slavic. To this day I do not know his name. Great guy. I have even seen you down there BO but you looked grumpy so I avoided you LOL."
Sorry. I am a miserable bastard.
As you state here in this post, MIB favor Democrats.
If the polls open at 8AM why do Biden favored ballots start to count before traditional voting starts? Transitional voting is not tallied until the polls close.
Votes counted before poll voting starts, and tallied before the polls close, should be invalid.
Why not just count all the votes when the polls close? Just so the cheating is not so obvious.
LOL I was just kidding Bernie LOL. The truth is you were running the other way and at the last second I recognized you.
I enjoy your blog. Especially now, given the fact LVL doesn't cover county council at all or very little. Where else can a political junkie go? You admit your biases and that's a given, but you also provide a good amount of information about county government that you will not find anywhere else so thanks!
12:51, First, Your comment has nothing to do with the subject of my post. Second, the polls open at 7 am, not 8 am. Third, the Republican-controlled state legislature authorizes the canvassing to start at 7 am, but results are not posted until polls close.
"The county board of elections shall meet no earlier than seven o'clock A.M. on election day to pre-canvass all ballots received prior to the meeting. A county board of elections shall provide at least forty-eight hours' notice of a pre-canvass meeting by publicly posting a notice of a pre-canvass meeting on its publicly accessible Internet website. One authorized representative of each candidate in an election and one representative from each political party shall be permitted to remain in the room in which the absentee ballots and mail-in ballots are pre-canvassed. No person observing, attending or participating in a pre-canvass meeting may disclose the results of any portion of any pre-canvass meeting prior to the close of the polls."
Why bother voting....I get the facts of numbers but the reality is no one knows who is going to win and it's killing some people. So we speculate. Which is your right. At least until we see who wins the election and how our freedom of speech is effected
Thanks for this, Bernie.
How have you accounted for Repubs who voted early/absentee?
A recent poll of PA shows Biden winning 13% of Rs, and Trump winning 9% of Ds.
Biden leads among "Other" by 14 points.
Fivethirtyeight rates it as a pretty good poll in terms of sample size and methodology.
Poll is here: http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/28/post-debate-pennsylvania-biden-51-trump-45/
@12:51 - I think you're a bit confused. The county does not report or know which candidate any of the MIBs voted for. Bernie just speculated based on party affiliation counts from those who requested and returned their MIB.
Bernie - correct me if I am wrong, but...
The process of counting/tallying the MIBs in most counties will begin promptly at 7AM, which includes manually opening, unfolding and stacking the MIBs in order for them to be scanned. I would assume that there will be representatives from both parties there for this process.
The MIB totals will be added in with the precinct reports at the end of the night, once polls close. No #'s will be reported to the public prior to the polls closing.
2:09, Yes. The ballots have not been opened and will not be opened until 7 am on Election Day. I am assuming that all Ds will be voting Biden and all Rs will be voting Trump. But as Canary just pointed out, about 13% of the Rs will vote Biden. I expect about half of the indies will break for Biden. Canary points out that Trump is getting 9% of the Ds. I can recalculate but believe my prediction is more or less on the money. Biden is going to win NorCo.
7am...thank you.
Any stats on Independents/no party? Anecdotally it seems Trump is favored but it's hard to figure independent thinkers.
Any chance you can predict my mother-in-law will live forever?
Trump is getting 16% of the dems and 58 % of the independents. 8% of the R's are voting for Biden. How that works out I have no idea.
Interesting 538 story below about how Trump will likely have a substantial lead with the in-person Election Day vote, which is reported first, but the huge number of absentee votes could tilt the state to Biden. Trump is already hinting that he'll try and stop the count as fast as possible, with tweets that it's vital to know the winner on the night of the Election. It took 2.5 weeks (!!!) to know the final total in the 2020 presidential primary, due to the unprecedented number of absentees, but there have been efforts to better prepare and improve on that. Bernie, do you know anything about those efforts? How long do you think it will take to count the Norco absentees?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvanias-vote-count-could-change-after-election-night/
3:33, Do you have a link? I am going to rework my assumptions. I have a link from Canary about how Ds and Rs are voting in Pa.
" It took 2.5 weeks (!!!) to know the final total in the 2020 presidential primary, due to the unprecedented number of absentees, but there have been efforts to better prepare and improve on that. Bernie, do you know anything about those efforts? How long do you think it will take to count the Norco absentees?"
NorCo finished counting its MIBs at 8:30 pm and was the first in the state. The problems elsewhere were the result of (1) new systems forced on the counties; (2) a drop in pollworkers as a result of the pandemic as well a consolidation of precincts; and (3) not enough scanners.
"I think" That's your problem bud.
The State of PA has advised election boards not to begin to canvass and count ballots received in the three days following the election until Friday Nov 6 at 5pm. It will be interesting to see how many that is and how it relates to the margin of votes late Tuesday or on Wednesday. Not to mention the Republicans appealing to SCOTUS to have them struck down. This could be a total clusterf***.
@4:15PM What probability do you put on Trump and/or Republicans "stopping" the counting of votes that were cast on or received by (mail in) the end of voting on Election Day? I can't imagine any court or judge agreeing to that. Trump may think votes counted the next day or two due to backlog should not count but who else would believe that bullshit?
7:17, my guess is there will only be a handful
Just a couple of stats from the guy who stockpiles voter turnout records for every election in the last 20 years for the valley. First, in Lehigh County, the Dems average 87% party loyalty in Presidential elections, in Northampton it was actually lower, 84%. Republicans are damn near 94% loyal in both Counties. One of the variables put forth here is that many of those "Disloyal" Dems, have changed to Republicans. That is a fair assessment looking at population growth and comparing it to new registrations, the scale hints at that. I think voter loyalty in Dems will go over 90% this time, because of that. The key here is all the other Non 2 big party voters. There are tens of thousands in each county. I think Biden gets 60% of them or better in both. That will be the swing. Bernie's position has a great deal of merit and could be spot on. Personally, I will stay conservative and say Biden wins Norco with 52.5 to 54.5, and he wins Lehigh with 55.2 to 57.2. How you like those predictions? LOL
@8:13PM Bernie, you believe that only a handful of mail-in ballots will come in Nov 4 to Nov 6? You have more faith than I do. I am going out on a limb and guessing 1500. To me human nature will be for some people to say "we have until Nov 6 - I'll be fine" and wait until Election Day to mail them.
Here is an excellent but frightening and unsurprising article from the New York Times that speaks to voter suppression and intimidation in Pennsylvania. Thanks, Republicans.
https://news.yahoo.com/facing-gap-pennsylvania-trump-camp-185503174.html
I believe that 90% of Democrats are gonna vote for Biden!
Trump will get a majority of men to vote for him here! And 80 % of Republicans.
But Women, most all democrats, but more significantly Republicans women, and Independent Women will vote for Biden!
That has developed since Trump came to office! It may not be as close as originally was thought!
The apathy towards Hillary by some Dems and most all republicans was significant to why Trump took NO. CO in 2016!
If you guys could tear yourselves away from your usual network news channels you might see an entirely different story than the evidence you parrot here. You will also learn about topics of great importance (like China’s influence here) that your regular channels want to hide. Over time, it will all come out. I’m hoping not too late to save our nation.
I believe that all Pennsylvania counties have been instructed to physically sequester any ballot received after the polls close on Tuesday in case there is any sort of challenge.
Does anyone have an answer to, or logic behind, why the counties have to wait until Tuesday to count the ballots? Wouldn't even a minimal 24 hours head start help the process? I can't see what the downside/risk would be...
Good! Next step - vote out the County Executive.
Just a guess, of course, but 90% of the population values personal safety for themself and their family. Law and Order is a key issue that must not be overlooked. In Pennsylvania, the rioting and looting in Philadelphia is not helping one of our political parties.
@6:43 - and what "News" sources are bringing you the clarity that we should only be concerned with China? What exactly differentiates Biden/Trump on their ability to handle China?
For certain, China is very much a global power and threat to US interests as their economy expands, and their standing as a creditor here in the states, but also countries in Central and South America that erode US influence and interests in our hemisphere.
That said, they aren't the only threat the US is facing on the global stage.
Of course, there are other countries besides China who want to bring us down. My point is, we have people in office now, and we’re in office a short time ago, that have benefited from large sums of money laundered through seemingly normal front groups. China, Ukraine, Russia included. All verified. THIS is the untold story of this election. Bernie knows what I’m talking about, but I’m not going to go deeper into this because I respect that Bernie has a right to determine what appears on this Blog.
I and my adult family and immediate family are all democrats...voting for Trump.
We'll probably disagree, but from my point of view, our standing in the international community has dropped considerably over the past 4 years. Particularly in Europe, who we will likely need in order to counter China's influence.
My wife and I, along with my parents and in-laws voted for Trump in 2016 - we all didn't like or trust Hillary. All of us are voting for Biden this year and our 20 and 18 year old children are voting for the first time - also Biden.
The one nation that counts most to me is the nation in which I live. I was blessed to be born in America. A nation known for freedom, liberty, and the rule of law. To keep this going forward, I will not vote for any candidate who has been compromised by another nation, making that candidate a security risk.
America, unfortunately, has endured decades of politicians “on the take.” That rot is manifested in both political parties and every government agency. So, about 6 years ago, I registered as an Independent. I think the latest rise in the number of Independents includes MANY who share my opinion. People “on the take” are reviled and will be swept away over time.
Related to woman vote. Many woman will vote for Trump. But they won't tell you because of the fear associated with this election.
Many women are telling their spouses they're voting for Trump to shut him up and keep him happy. They're secretly voting for Biden and are actually a little excited by it.
I agree that many women will vote for Trump, the data says women go for Biden 62 to 38. With 54% of the electorate being female, that is a tough bump for Trump to overcome.
Find those numbers hard to believe. Certainly alot of woman at the rallies!!! Woman care about freedom.
Huge invasion of Tara Zrinski canvassers this weekend knocking on on doors. All from New York.
She sponsers a super spreader event. What a tool.....
No he won't.
Agree, 10:50 PM. This election is all about who wins the White House. The direct evidence seen in neighborhoods all across America, the people actively involved, shows no absence of women who believe in freedom and security for their families. Those who remain stuck on regular, network news are missing an incredible display of POSITIVE citizen energy.
The Republican Party has maintained a close accounting of who has applied for one of the Trump rallies across the nation. I’m sure the stats can be found online, and I’m sure most readers here will say it’s all lies.
So far, the interest in attending the rallies has included 1/3 to 1/2 of all applications going to persons whose voter registration is not Democrat. You decide the message in that. I say, it’s a positive indicator for Trump.
"The Republican Party has maintained a close accounting of who has applied for one of the Trump rallies across the nation"
Then you should call it the Nazi party.
I have to ask.. who is holding back information from the voters. Who is canceling anyone with a different opinion. Who wants to control our lives and our income. Who wants to take away our right to bear arms. So who is the nazi party?
And trumpkins must be desperate.
https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/democrats-cancel-texas-event-after-trump-supporters-surround-follow-biden-harris-bus-during-campaign-stops/
"I have to ask.. who is holding back information from the voters. Who is canceling anyone with a different opinion. Who wants to control our lives and our income. Who wants to take away our right to bear arms. So who is the nazi party?"
Hey, I'm not the idiot Republican who said his party makes a "close accounting" of who attends Trump rallies. And Trump admitted holding back information from the voters. It is your Dear leader who lied to the public about the virus, admits to lying and who continues to lie. It is your Dear Leader who has basically sidelined Drs. Fauci and Birx because he does not want them telling the public the truth. It is the GOP that refused to meet for a second stimulus or extend pandemic relief to small business. It is the GOP that is not just shedding burdensome regs, but basic protections designed to keep us healthy. So far as I know, no Democrat has tried to take away your right to bear arms. But yes, we don't think you need a bazooka or mortar. So yeah, the GOP sounds like a Nazi party, at least under Trump.
Bernie, your knowledge of Northampton County politics is well above average, but the junk from others you parrot about national politics is really off the mark. The 6:10 PM claims are classic propaganda.
I don't parrot anything. I watch no TV. I read from both sides of the spectrum and form conclusions. By his own admission, Trump lied about Covid. He is on tape admitting it as he is doing it. The coronavirus task force has done its best to muzzle or demean both Drs. Birx and Fauci, while placing an uninformed idiot in charge, just like Wolf in Pa. Trump has rolled back protections (I do not call them regulations) designed to keep you healthy. And I know of no serious Dem who wants to repeal the Second Amendment. Try again.
What makes our country great is we can disagree Bernie. You have a right to your opinion. I have a right to mine. I won't convince you and you won't convince me. But thanks for letting us share. Not many places we can do it without fearing for our life. I know I don't want AOC. The squad and Manali running out country. And the republicans had a stimuli without the extra crap the democrats were trying to add that had nothing to do with the issue at hand. Again typical swamp politics. And the people suffered because the democrats wouldn't budge so they bernie hurt the people. I'll have to deal with the outcome and so will you but you seem to be listening to the classic propaganda as above noted.
Today, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Editorial Board endorsed Donald Trump. first time in 49 years it has endorsed a Republican for President. It was pretty much a “ Lesser of 2 Evils” explanation, but noteworthy just the same.
The Post-Gazette claims to have made its decision based on the many positive results Trump has provided, claiming all of this shouldn’t become a personality contest, etc. etc. I surely agree there. It’s even possible the Post-Gazette Board sees the handwriting on the wall and wants to slip into good graces. Who can be sure?
If you haven’t seen the videos of yesterday’s rally in Western Pennsylvania (Butler) you should take a look. Simply amazing turnout. ‘Come on, man!” That’s not just mojo . . . it’s noJoe.
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