Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure reports that yesterday, the county's elections office was deluged with 2,000 last-minute voter registrations. He has no knowledge how they break down along party lines, but this is yet another indication that the November 3 Presidential will be a turnout, and not a persuasion, election.
As of October 19, based on records maintained by the Department of State, there are now 9,016,163 registered voters in the Commonwealth, consisting of 4,207,190 Democrats (46.66%), 3,506,337 Republicans (38.88%) and 1,302,636 others (14.44%).
In the last Presidential race, there were 8,748,726 registered voters, consisting of 4,125,889 Democrats (47.15%), 3,376,463 Republicans (38.59%) and 1,246,374 (14.25%) others.
It's still a Democrat plurality state, and Dems have increased their numbers, but Republicans have added more to their ranks.
In 2016 in Lehigh County, there were 109,353 Democrats, 78,062 Republicans and 37,293 others, for a grand total of 224,708 voters. Now there are 247,261 registered voters, consisting of 118,488 Democrats, 84,668 Republicans and 44,105 others. Lehigh Democrats have bucked the statewide trend, capturing 40.5% of the increase in voters to the Republicans' 29.3%. Lehigh County is becoming bluer.
Northampton County, however, is becoming redder. In 2016, there were 98,929 Democrats, 73,638 Republicans and 39,026 others for a grand total of 211,593 registered voters. After four years of Donald Trump, there are now 225,649 registered voters, made up of 101,981 Democrats, 80,642 Republicans and 43,075 others. Republicans account for 49.7% of the increase in registration, while Democrats have only attracted 21.6%.
Unless Democratic turnout is huge, Trump will win Northampton County again.
15 comments:
The Republicans have made a big push over the past 3 weeks to encourage current voters to take a new voter with them. They know this is not just another election. This is an election for the future of their families. Like living America, or being forced to live in a place more like Venezuela.
Why are people delaying to the last minute to request ballots? Everyone who can should show up at the polls as in other years. Sorry folks but the stores and eating establishments and other venues have people there for extended times. This last minute horse crap is nonsense.
Where the heck have you been all these years during the off presidential elections? In order to relieve the last minute counting everyone who can, should, get to the polls. We have stream lined the processing the votes at polling sites yet we are allowing this nonsense with last minute mail/drop off voting. You folks sure can get get in line early or request tickets the day the box office/on line ticketing opens up. Again, this is nonsense.
@7:28 - Surely you cannot be surprised at low turnout during non-Presidential election years.
I do think some voters have waited until the last moment because they wanted to see what the COVID reality was versus making the decision back in August.
I still have no idea whatsoever of the logic behind Pennsylvania NOT allowing the counties to start counting mail in ballots 2-3 days ahead of the election. What's the benefit to waiting or downside to starting a few days early?
As far as lines go, I'll bring a book and a candy bar and happily wait my turn, no matter how long it takes.
Will yet again question, why do we still have to vote on only 1 day, and why a Tuesday? I mean back in the 1800's with only a population of 10,000,000 of which only land owning white men could vote, I guess it made some sense, and they needed a day to travel into the county seat to vote.
That reality no longer exists. We have a population of 325,000,000. Start it on a Saturday morning, close the polls at 5PM, open them again on Sunday at noon, close again at 5PM, then Mon & Tuesday go 7AM-7PM.
Well of course Trump will win Norco. Do you really think we want China Joe and Commie Kamala pulling the plug on the last great hope of the world?
If someone would be offering free stuff on November 3, they would be lining up on Nov. 1 to be ahead everyone else.
If the tax on income is raised (as Biden says he would do) just who in the Hell do you think will begin to pay more?
Answer: Every working person and every person receiving any kind of pension, even Social Security! So, are you in this group?
I think Biden will win Northampton 52 to 48. I think he gets 56 to 44 in Lehigh. I think he wins the state 53 to 47. Turnout in Philly will top 70%+ driving him over the red parts of the state. You know I like my numbers. Even if they throw out 100,000 votes in Philly I think Biden carries the state easily. It might take until Friday to irrevocably prove it, but Biden wins PA.
Well of course Trump will win Norco. Do you really think we want China Joe and Commie Kamala pulling the plug on the last great hope of the world?
China Joe doesn't have an active bank account in China, Guess who does?
Anonymous Anonymous said...
If the tax on income is raised (as Biden says he would do) just who in the Hell do you think will begin to pay more?
Answer: Every working person and every person receiving any kind of pension, even Social Security! So, are you in this group?
Bernie, Why do you let people post false information like this?
It's obviously false. Biden's rollback would only hit those making $400k or more, and I should have pointed out it is disinformation.
@10:03 - "I think Biden will win Northampton 52 to 48. I think he gets 56 to 44 in Lehigh. I think he wins the state 53 to 47. Turnout in Philly will top 70%+ driving him over the red parts of the state. You know I like my numbers. Even if they throw out 100,000 votes in Philly I think Biden carries the state easily. It might take until Friday to irrevocably prove it, but Biden wins PA."
Good analysis Chris.
Northampton might end up a little closer to than that, and wouldn't be totally shocked in a very narrow Trump win based on very few Dem votes in northern part of the county. That said, I completely agree with you, HUGE #'s out of Philly, plus the turnout and lopsided margins in Bucks, Montgomery, Chester & Delaware will ultimately swamp the Pennsylvania "T" counties.
This will be a theme nationally. 2,000 rural low population counties will vote Trump with lopsided margins. Similarly, the 300 or so urban counties that account for over 50% of our population will vote Biden. The suburban counties where narrowly Trump won in 2016 will be the ones to watch. Trump has bled out women and college educated the past 4 years, voters in 2016 who didn't like either candidate and wanted to try something new. Only a few of them will stick with Trump.
Electoral college flips of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona make it a blowout in both the popular and elector votes leaving no doubt that the body has fully rejected the organ.
As far as Bidens tax plan goes, he collaborated with socialist Sanders and they jointly released a 110 page policy document. The 400K cutoff is true, but will change over time as they also want to implement SS/payroll taxes on income over 400 as well. The SS cap today is 137800 but adjusts yearly, so 30 years down the road everybody will be paying payroll taxes. Estate taxes will be changed, and they want to mess with 401K's as well. Any kind of generational wealth transfer is going to be nailed due to changes to the estate tax. Corporate tax rates will be raised to 28%, keeping in mind countries like Ireland are at 12.5%. Why not close the loopholes instead of raising the corporate tax?
The bottom line is the tax increases do not come anywhere close to covering the increased new spending he has proposed, which is in the trillions of dollars. It's time to dust off the Simpson Bowles commission recommendations and implement them. Taxes need to go up, and spending cut, not increased.
You people are fools if you think Biden will win this county, state or country!
I expect Biden to come out of the Philly area with a 650,000 to 700,000 vote cushion. I also feel that figures showing Republican registration growing are misleading. For years election turnout showed Dem loyalty at mid 80s and Republicans in mid 90s. I think many of the registration changes are Dems who voted R anyway. It skews the numbers but the result is pretty close to the same
@1:43 - What do you base your confidence that Trump will win on? Feels and observations of flags and yard signs don't count. I admire your optimism, but there are so many red lights flashing at this point for his campaign that barring complete and total Democrat complacency on election day, Trumps prospects are very, very grim.
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