Last week, I told you that 15 million people have already voted and that 2.66 million Pennsylvanians are seeking mail-in ballots (MIBs). My source is the U.S. Elections Project, which is doing a daily track of the voting. In the span of just a few days, that number has nearly doubled. As coronavirus spikes, so do the votes. As of October 18, 27.7 million ballots have been returned. Nearly 82 million MIBs have been requested.
In Pennsylvania, data is current through October 16. So far, 2,728,267 voters are seeking MIBs. Democrats have requested 1,755,939 (64.4%), while Republicans only account for 672,381 (24.6%) applications. According to this news source, 25% of the requested ballots have already been returned. A total of 683,136 Pennsylvanians have already voted.
In what has to be good news for Democrats, 371,709 MIBs have been requested in Philly, with 41.9% of them already returned. Voters appear to be motivated in that Democratic stronghold,. notwithstanding weaknesses within the city party.
In Allegheny (Pittsburgh), the news is even better. There have been 375,135 MIB requests, and 50.6% have been returned.
In Lehigh County, 77,961 MIBs have been requested, with only 6.5% returned. This is because Lehigh only started sending ballots out a week ago.
In adjoining Northampton County, 74,483 MIBs have been requested, and 48.5% have come back.
This is a turnout election, not a persuasion election. Most people have made up their minds. Only 16 states report party registration data, so it is impossible to know for sure whether Democrats or Republicans are voting by mail. Among the 16 states that do report party data, Democrats have a 2-1 edge.
On election day, I expect to see a role reversal, with Republicans dominating at the precincts. This will undoubtedly give Trump an early lead in some areas, but I expect to see that reversed as MIBs are counted.
Based on what I see with the early voting, it appears likely now that Trump will be defeated. He's burned too many bridges and has pissed off too many voters.
24 comments:
I'm sensing the biggest fraudulent election in our nation's history.
His lead on election night in those states that are still counting mail-in votes will be what he needs to cause chaos when he starts touting his rigged election rhetoric and files lawsuits.
"How could I lose? I was winning by 100,000 votes when polls closed and two days later I lose by 200,000 after they counted mail-in ballots. Rigged. It was a rigged election!"
Great prediction. Whom did you pick in 2016, Bernie? Oh yeah. That's right. You need to get another news source and stop smelling your own exhaust. You suck at prognostication because you limit your news sources. It shows over years and years of hilariously poor guesses. Good fun, though.
I've had my ballot for two weeks. Don't like early voting. The emerging Hunter Biden crap is rather stunning, if indeed Joe got half the dough - or any of it, as the kid's own emails say. Still leaning toward a none of the above in the Wild-Scheller race. Can't stand either but hate non-votes. I'm still voting by mail due to my spouse's compromised immune system. But I'd like to see how this plays out. It looks really bad. I'll wait until the last minute.
You can see from McConnell's and Cornyn's recent comments, they see the writing on the wall and are sliding into self preservation mode.
Count on Trump to wail and whine for a couple weeks into November, then when he realizes that no congressional Republicans are coming to his rescue, he'll issue himself a Presidential pardon, or possibly just hand the keys over to Pence to handle all the clean up for him.
His recent rally threats of leaving the country, may actually be reality.
I sincerely hope everyone understands the extent of improper revenue going to Members of Congress in the form of insider stock trading, money laundering through various fake charities and foundations, etc. YES, the Biden family secrets being revealed now, particularly involving Ukraine and China, are legitimate. All three of the hard drives discovered are full of emails that would cause average citizens to reject Biden’s candidacy.
But, thanks to big technology and biased news media, how many Americans even know about this stuff?
5:57, I am simply stating what is happening - Democrats are voting in large numbers. In the battleground state of Pa., which did not have no-excuse MIBs in 2016, they are voting in very large numbers. In one of his most idiotic blunders, Trump is actually encouraging Rs NOT to vote my mail. He is suppressing his own turnout. Because this is a turnout election, his advice is a deathknell. As for my accuracy in predictions, you have a point, lol. I'm about 60%. In the last two elections, I was nearly 100%. I do not limit my news sources. I read several conservative sources and read everything with a jaundiced eye. I am well aware the media is biased both against and for Trump.
"The emerging Hunter Biden crap is rather stunning..."
Its sure does, hopefully everyone will just ignore and shrug their shoulders as they've done with all of what Don Jr, Ivanka and Jared have been doing over the last 4 years. These kids need to make money someway.
That, and of course its mostly manufactured horseshit from Russia. But sure, be concerned about it since Hannity and Tucker told you to.
9:00, The reality, and not the crap you are spewing, is that Biden spent most of his career as one of the poorest members of Congress. No insider trading. He became wealthy AFTER leaving office because he could command high speaking fees and picked up $8 million for three books.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-the-poorest-senator-middle-class-joe-biden-has-reaped-millions-in-income-since-leaving-the-vice-presidency/2019/06/25/931458a8-938d-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html
How many are in a dumpster or in an alley ?
@9:34
How many have you found during your nightly foraging?
Book deals are a common money laundering method. So are outrageously high speaking fees,
9:13, nice attempt at deflection. But actually they have his emails. That hasn't been denied by anybody. I'd prefer to see what's in them and how it plays out for a bit. That's the danger in early voting - even at the end of a campaign that's drug on for two years. Had I voted two weeks ago, I'd have voted for Scheller. Now, I'm not sure and probably won't, given some things I've heard and read since. October surprises are as old as US politics. But like them or not, they can inform one's decision.
11:13, The reason those emails have failed to gain wide coverage is bc they are viewed suspiciously. In fact, the reporter who wrote the story was so doubtful he refused to let the paper use his byline. The paper had to get someone else. The emails were supplied by two Trump supporters, Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon. This is Trump's October surprise, but no one is buying it. It is tabloid fodder. It is certainly poor journalism if, as reported below, this so-called newspaper failed to even contact the Biden camp about a so-called meeting with the then VP. The Biden camp denies the story and has his schedule over the time period in question. That schedule indicates no such meeting ever occurred. You are desperately clinging to hope that if you scream corruption enough, someone will believe it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/business/media/new-york-post-hunter-biden.html
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/new-york-post-insiders-slag-flimsy-hunter-biden-stories.html
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ratcliffe-hunter-biden-laptop-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign
No deflection. If you believe anything about the Hunter Biden emails, believe that it's been manufactured by Russia and funneled thru a gullible and compromised Giuliani. But at this point, stop your posing and just waste your vote on Trump, in your heart its what you want to do anyway - since you've taken the bait and are so concerned about these emails. Nobody else is though.
The most hilarious thing in the world is dimwitted FOX News watching robots screaming "Corruption!" at Biden after ignoring 4 years of Trump literally charging US taxpayers for his staff and security detail staying at all of his golf properties.
THAT is literally a text book definition of corruption. A "politician" using his/her power to direct government funds in a way to personally profit from it.
So if Biden is corrupt, you have to say Trump is equally corrupt. Most of America already knows this, hence this October surprise has no legs outside of Right Wing media audiences.
What happens to all the early votes when Biden withdraws?
Now that the intelligence community has confirmed these Hunter Biden revelations are real and the Biden Family is clearly compromised. Will Joe Biden withdraw and spared the nation 4 years of Hunter Hearings? Or will Mamele Harris take over immediately after the election?
I didn't start out as Trump supporter, but after 4 years of phony Russian conspiracy theories and that bullshit phony primary, I'm enjoying watching democrats squirm in their own stench as they descend into the madness of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
I'm not clinging to anything and citing WaPo isn't exactly objective. Regardless, nobody has denied their authenticity. The focus seems to be on how they were obtained. From the Pentagon Papers to Trump's Tax returns, I don't care when the information provides as long as it informs.
"citing WaPo isn't exactly objective. "
Nor is NY Post, the source of this story. I also cited Fox. You missed that.
"Now that the intelligence community has confirmed these Hunter Biden revelations are real"
We know no such thing. We know that Ratcliffe, a Trump flunkie, has claimed he has no evidence they are part of a Russian disinformation campaign. But that by no means is a confirmation these emails are real. You took quite a leap in logic there, old boy.
"Mamele Harris"
Your misogyny is showing.
"I didn't start out as Trump supporter,"
And you close with an obvious lie.
Exactly Bernie. Some Trumpsters are trying to cover just how much they dig their guy. He's a misogynist, a chronic liar, and the most disinformed and misinformed perpetrator of propaganda to ever sit in the oval office...and yet, they'll vote for him cuz they are very much like him. Their mirror is not something they look into much.
Again it's not about the person. It's about the policies they will bring. Who drank the koolaid? At least argue the points and stop attacking the people
If Biden is elected, you can be sure it won’t be Biden running the show. There is no way he can handle the stress, the travel, the speeches, the press conferences, and all the rest. What you are getting, in reality, is Kamala Harris with a heavy hand on the puppet strings by Obama and Valarie Jarrett.
"I sincerely hope everyone understands the extent of improper revenue going to Members of Congress in the form of insider stock trading, money laundering through various fake charities and foundations, etc. YES, the Biden family secrets being revealed now, particularly involving Ukraine and China, are legitimate. All three of the hard drives discovered are full of emails that would cause average citizens to reject Biden’s candidacy."
Biden could shoot Trump in the middle of 5th Avenue and I'd still vote for him.
Biden is weak on Terrorists.
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