About Me

My photo
Nazareth, Pa., United States

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Nothstein Loses, But Wins

As I warned you, Marty Nothstein is likely going to serve in Congress for a few weeks. There were two races - the Pa.7th and a special election in the more conservative Pa. 15th, Despite having a 5 to 1 edge in money (counting outside money) and a newspaper that did its best to screw Marty Nothstein, unofficial results make Susan Wild the loser to Nothstein in the 15th. The tallies are as follows:

Northampton County: Wild - 31,278; Nothstein - 28,464.
Lehigh County: Wild - 66,657; Nothstein - 52,057.
Dauphin County: Wild - 12,574; Nothstein - 16,081
Berks County: Wild - 7,000; Nothstein - 11,794
Lebanon County: Wild - 9,473; Nothstein - 18,644

This adds up to Nothstein with 127,040 over Wild's 126,982.

Election officials need to canvass these unofficial results before they become official. This is basically a recount.

What about an automatic recount?

Under Pa.law, recounts are automatic when a candidate for statewide office loses by less than 0.5%. But this rule has no application to congressional races. 

Three electors from each precinct who allege fraud or error can petition for recount

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

You’re correct but I doubt that most voters understood that part of the ballot as many people have mentioned that they didn’t respond to that ballot item because they had already made a selection for the congressional seat.

Anonymous said...

Uninformed voters are the worst! The message of Get Out and Vote should be Go Educate Yourself on the Issues and Ballot and then Get Out and Vote, but I guess that isn't as catchy. Let's just make it simple and color code it blue vs red for those too lazy to put the work in. Voting isn't your civic duty. Your civic duty is understanding what you are voting for.

Anonymous said...

It also shows you that illegal redistricting by the democratic pa. court has done. The pa. republicans needed a backbone to move with impeachment of those judges who overstepped their authority. Of course they did not redrawn their local districts so why should they get involved.

LVCI said...

It also shows you that illegal redistricting by the democratic pa. court has done.

Anyone who has a brain knows Republicans tried to bury democratic representation by redrawing these lines. Nearly all urban areas vote liberal. By putting large areas of suburban population in the mix it diluted the wishes of those in urban areas. These urban areas deserve just as much representation for their values as those outside them.

It also might interest many to learn even though Republicans will retain control the U.S. Senate-- due to redistricting-- there were 11 million more votes cast by democrats for their candidates.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"You’re correct but I doubt that most voters understood that part of the ballot as many people have mentioned that they didn’t respond to that ballot item because they had already made a selection for the congressional seat."

At least partially untrue. The results are very similar in LC and NC for Pa-7 and Pa-15.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"t also might interest many to learn even though Republicans will retain control the U.S. Senate-- due to redistricting-- there were 11 million more votes cast by democrats for their candidates."

Concentrating all the Dem districts in urban areas to ensure a Dem victory is gerrymandering, too. This is a democratic republic, not a pure democracy in which winner takes all. each state gets two US Senators. The vote of a US Senator from California or NY counts no more than the vote of a Senator from Delaware or Utah. The framers did this to prevent a tyranny of the majority. So it matters very little that there were 11 million more Democrats voting than Rs.

Anonymous said...

@9:39 - Instead of whining about what underhanded Democrats did in 2018 to replace what dishonest Republicans did in 2011, why not eliminate letting any of "our" state legislators pick and draw the boundaries that suit "them" best altogether?

Do you really think the states political make up is 70% Republican and 30% Democrat?

Party Registration in PA as of 2016

Dems = 4.1M (49%)
Reps = 3.8M (38%)
Other = 450K (5%)
Ind. = 703K (8%)

If nothing changes with our current process, Wolf & the Dems will control the map making process in 2021. My guess is if you don't like the current map, you are going to HATE the next map, which surely will look to strengthen Democratic chances and marginalize Republicans.

Bottom line, our redistricting process in Pennsylvania is a disgrace and needs to be changed. An independent commission is needed. There are plenty of details to work out as to who should be on such a commission, but a computer program with publicly available parameters/metrics for population and boundary rules can easily spit out 15 random maps which the commission could then review and whittle down to 3 or 4. At that point, you just # the maps and then pull a number out of a hat.

Scott of Nazareth

Anonymous said...

Pa. will loose a seat in 2020, so the whole state will be redistricted, constitution says 4 members from each party plus a chairmen from the majority party. Then there is the right of appeal, this is the process that gave present districts The 5 to 1 democratic court overstepped the constitution in this matter. If you really want to make it fair, divide districts with equal number of republicans and democrats. then we will see who can win the debate. If there are more of 1 party , then give them a district.

Anonymous said...

As far as an independent commission that is a joke, there is no longer anything independent anywhere, not the court, not the newspaper, no one anywhere.

LVCI said...

So it matters very little that there were 11 million more Democrats voting than Rs.
It should. Republican senators should keep in mind they do not represent entirely one side of their constituency only.

framers did this to prevent a tyranny of the majority
Neither did the framers expect congress to ignore the will of the people entirely if one party happened to gain control over the other. This too could be considered a form of tyranny by one ruling party's philosophies taking presidency over another's without due consideration.

Anonymous said...

@11:22 - Agree, PA will drop to 17 districts after 2020 and create the need for another map. Would love to see 50/50 splits everywhere where with competition based on ideas and merit, but its impossible without really distorting and twisting districts more so than they were after 2011. You have to put 700K-ish people in each district. Philly & Allegheny account for 3 reliably Dem districts on their own, but that is off set by at least 4 strong Republican districts in Northern & Central PA with more real estate but lighter population. Philly & Pittsburgh suburbs, Lehigh Valley, NEPA (Scranton/Wilkes Barre) and to a lesser extent, Erie and Harrisburg/Lancaster/Reading areas are where there is a more natural 50/50 breakdown. No map is perfect and there will be natural lean R and lean D breakdowns, but would think you'd get 10 districts that would certainly be competitive and swung on independent/moderate voters.

Scott of Nazareth

Anonymous said...

It's really sad to watch Bernie fall so hard. He is so obviously trying to avoid, at all costs, any mention that 1) his least favorite candidate won handily, and 2) he isn't the political mastermind he considers himself to be. We are all painfully aware of how much he hates Wild, so that first point needs no explanation. But let's all remember that way back when, before the primary, Bernie said NO WAY would Wild ever win a seat in the 7th. She creamed Marty, and if she lost by ~80 votes in a district where Trump won by 8, that's humiliating for Marty.

Hang up the blog, Bernie. Your "analysis" is worthless.

Anonymous said...

@11:24 - Part of the problem IS the polarization and partisanship of our society. Like it or not, Republicans have to live and work with Democrats and vice versa. Cramming each others ideologies down each others throats the last 30 years is a major reason why we've become so dysfunctional - BOTH parties and their supporters are EQUALLY to blame. Creating a balanced map would force politicians to play to the middle 70% of their district instead of pandering to extreme ends of their party bases.

An independent commission is achievable by giving Democrats and Republicans equal appointments coupled with verifiable independent/other party members who all meet certain qualifications, which would have to include no direct affiliation/relationship to state or local party leadership, X # of years of residence and party affiliation and some degree of expertise in map making, demography, sociology, statistics or related field.

Some of these members would create and establish the basic rules and parameters for the computer program. The others would then review the output and eliminate maps with the most zits and warts just like attorneys picking a jury until there were 4 maps remaining. At that point you just pick one at random.

Scott of Nazareth

Anonymous said...

You certainly can gerrymander a House district (except in states with only a single district, such as Montana or Alaska), but how exactly can you gerrymander a SENATE seat? (You can't. You can cheat in other ways, such as interfering with the right to vote, but you can't change state boundaries.

That Nothstein did so much better in the gerrymandered version of the district shows by just how much the Republicans rigged the game (before the PA Supreme Court stepped in, that is. Gerrymandering is an absolutely noxious and antidemocratic practice.

Republicans like to put lots of Dems in a single House district so that three or four others can have a Republican majority. That's why Reps were winning the House even while Dems had more votes nationwide, including winning 12-6 in PA even while Dems had more popular votes.

Anonymous said...

58 vote difference... that's anyone's race, if that was the intent of redistricting they've succeeded.

Looks like both sides have to campaign now and deliver.

Anonymous said...

Best Idea......then it's fair. Those judges should be impeached for what they did. But republicans had no balls to do it.

Anonymous said...

That was the old district. The new 7th favors dems by almost 100,000 .

LVCI said...

What would happen if one senator had to be republican the other a democrat?

Anonymous said...

Funny how the republicans are for the old gerrymandered 15th that was ludicrous and made sure a republican won. Now it is compact and just the Lehigh valley as it should be and they are pissing and moaning. A better republican might have won

Bernie O'Hare said...

12:20, I said several times I expected Wild to win. She had too much money and a daily newspaper in her corner. Also, I believe that what I said was that the election would’ve over had John been the Dem nominee. Suffice to say her margin of victory in Pa-7 is pretty anemic considering all the out of state money poured into her. And she lost Pa-15. My real objection to her is that she is dishonest. It is true I have little regard for people like that and even less for cowards like you, who try to make me the issue instead of what I write.

Navy semen said...

Bob Ryan admit your powerlessness over alcohol and Bernie will take you straight to the 13th step where your prostate will be milked dryer than the gobi desert.

Anonymous said...

True representation with the Senate would be "only one of the two senators elected from each state may be of the same party".

Anonymous said...

5.14
Bernie what happens if Nothstein chooses not to serve the remaining time in Dent's seat?

https://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pa-15-nothstein-wild-special-election-20181106-story.html

"Nothstein is also the chairman of the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners.
The county’s Home Rule Charter states: “During his or her term of office, an elected officer shall not hold any other county office or county employment for compensation, any other elective public office, any other political office or political employment for compensation.”
County Solicitor Sarah Murray said if Nothstein resigns as county commissioner"

"“If I am elected to serve in Congress for the remainder of Charlie Dent’s term, I will do that just as everyone has elected me do to so, and I will do it to the best of my ability,” Nothstein said Tuesday".

Nothstein's smart move would be to refuse to serve for sixteen days.
but then again he would be dishonest if his pledge was not honored.

Anonymous said...

The new 7th is gerrymandered. They took away Montco which was part of the old 15th and added Sroudsburg which is full of NJ liberal transplants.

Anonymous said...

Then why vote? That's the dumbest thing I've heard.

Anonymous said...

Yes, but you're not explaining why our district's voters (or most of them) are such idiots.