Brad Todd is the founding partner of OnMessage, Inc., a Republican advertising and opinion firm. He and Washington Examiner reporter Salena Zito teamed up recently to write "The Great Revolt," an examination of the forces that led to Trump's election. They both were guests on WAMU's 1A yesterday. Todd had an interesting observation about yesterday's Pennsylvania primary. Those of you who consider it a progressive victory in the year of the woman better think again.
Yesterday, 51% of the voters were Democrats. That is actually the lowest Democratic participation of a Pa. mid-term primary in this century. Just four years ago, Democratic participation was 68%. In 2010, it was 55%. In 2006, it was 56%. In 2002, it was 70%. Yesterday, Republican participation was as close to equal as it has ever been.
"I think that sends a signal that Pennsylvania continues to move after the 2016 election," said Zito.
I agree. I also think the shrinking number of Democrats who voted are the more extreme within the party. And she only attracted a plurality (33%) of them. In western Pa., the election of Conor Lamb a few weeks ago was a display of progressive pragmatism over progressive purity. The defeat of John Morganelli in eastern Pa. signals a return to the litmus test.
This virtually ensures that Marty Nothstein, an Olympic gold medal winner, will win in November. Though groups like "Lehigh Valley For All" or "LV Fierce" are very energized, they are elitists, not populists. They have no empathy for and little understanding of blue collar families.
89 comments:
Excellent observations Bernie. The thought-control, identity politics snobs of the Democrat Socialist Party do not represent the blue collar voters of the valley. Wild and the left-wing kooks that represent her base will fall big to American hero Marty in November.
"Democrat Socialist Party"
Well I guess we will see if the White nationalist Party of the Capitalist elite beats the candidate of the people. Should be interesting.
What is Wild going to run on? Higher taxes? More regulations? Weaker military? Crappier economy?
A house for everyone, a job for everyone, no worries about being fired. As much free school as you want, phones, cars, boats, free food, abortion on demand, free medical care and drugs. And we take from the evil rich to give to the deserving poor so everyone is exactly equal.
Remember, Cuba's health care is the best in the world. How could you possibly vote against that?
Or support what you believe in. Marty Nothstein
Whomever ran Morganelii's campaign really screwed the pooch. Saw the breakout for the dem candidates as to how they did across the District. Morganelli really needed to better hit Monroe and Lehigh cos., where he is not known as well. Wild cleaned his clock. Especially in the Monroe Co. areas. How in the Hell did she best him there? Hopefully JM got an apology before he handed the check to his campaign manager.
The further Wild moves the Democrats to the left the more moderates and independents they lose. Wack jobs such as her and college kids votes are not going to get them very far.
A commenter yesterday bemoaned Nothstein’s lack of a college degree. This is the bunch who want free college for 24% - paid for by the 76% who don’t go. Not a bad plan. It may be how Bernie Sanders gets to own three houses. And spare the value of educating the college worthy. They’re majoring in women’s studies and underwater fire prevention and serving the public as baristas. This post is balls on correct.
I have observed BUTTONS ON COLLEGE kids trying to get the vote out around Lafayette College. .If I can remember,they had NexGen printed on them or something close to that . I don’t think the gal I viewed was a student here because she seemed to not know her way around off campus student traffic areas . She was cute and bright looking with a dress on and clip board and all ,but she had more hair on her legs than I do! Progressive? Saves water. Bad timing for her efforts ,the coffee shops all had the phones and I pads out but these kids are graduating shortly and their agenda is getting out of here and going back to Connecticut ,loading up the Audi’s and Rovers. When students vote here ,and not file abesenee applications from many of their home states where they really live, there can be consequences unconsidered about their venue . Lafayette College Progressive s had somehow moved the polling place to their own campus during the Barry’s campaign and I hope somebody in the Republican Party never lets that happen again .
The progressives want to move the nation progressively toward a total socialist economy, one like Venezuela or Cuba, which when accomplished could end up like North Korea. Equality is not the promised land when you live in a 300 sq ft apartment with just enough food to survive. Eventually someone has to do the work to keep the infrastructure up, when everyone is guaranteed the necessities of life, the only way that is accomplished is forced labor. Lets face it, the problem is simply we have people who believe they are entitled to all their needs to be supplied by others. When mommy and daddy are either dead or tapped out, they want the government to tax others to take care of them.
I’m not convinced today’s so-called progressive voters understand socialism. They think they’re proud socialists because they have participate in social media, like FB, Twitter, Instagram and
Marty needs to take the gloves off and speed by the evil Wild !
Statler? Waldorf? Is that you???
J.M. gave it away.
PRODUCTIVE citizens of America are beginning to realize the "guy in the White House" is doing a pretty good job.
He works extremely hard. He has fulfilled many campaign promises already. He has established himself as a dominate geopolitical leader. Those who pay taxes, receive a Social Security or other kind of pension, pay taxes on those amounts at a LOWER rate than before. Several other improved American conditions exist.
Just don't see enough voters rushing over to Democrats to change any of this.
A return to the entitlement crew. Don't worry about anything, the government will take care of you. She is counting on Students, women and other leftist to propel her in the general; good luck in the LV. A return to the Obama days is not a key attribute for any campaign, nor is a female Bernie Sanders wanna be.
Ms. Wild is nothing but a liar shaped by her former mentor Ed Pawlowski, the grand deceiver. She gave twice to his campaigns and received endorsements and money from his PAC when she ran for county government; which she lost!
Marty better get off his high horse and come out swinging. Do not take this liar to easy, she is inextricably connected to students who want a free handout, the #me too campaign, and leftist money pools.
A bit early for the Trump loving lemmings to be campaigning for the Alt-right.
There was no contested Governors race. Don't be fooled.
1. The Washington Examiner is a conservative outfit, so you may want to take their analysis with a grain of salt.
2. Bernie made the same dire predictions that Josh Shapiro was going to lose for PA Attorney General after Morganelli came in a distant 3rd in the primary.
Although it looks like John Morganelli did well in Northampton County, He had to do much better in a crowded field of candidates. Candidates who knew they had no chance at all of winning took votes from John. Very evident in the Easton Returns. Wild did very well in Lehigh County and the Allentown area. Allentown voters didn't throw Powlawski out of office even after he was indicted and found guilty on 50 charges, why should we expect anything different from Allentown voting for his legal beagle, Susan Wild. It is very hard to beat a woman on any ballot yet alone the Congressional level. If you think this election was down and dirty, wait till the fall. OMG
"I also think the shrinking number of Democrats who voted are the more extreme within the party."
and those "extreme voters" gave Morganelli quite some votes.
if you did not have Edwards candidate(Bernie sanders pick)--those people were going to vote for Morganelli?.
not a chance. if the race was between Wild and Morganelli only.
Morganelli would have been beaten like a rented mule.
The Democrats were interested in a candidate that reflected their views not trump-lite.
A State wide turnout that did not contain a lot of drama overall would not have a great number of primary voters.
so trying to predict a turnout later in the year is just nonsense.
Though groups like "Lehigh Valley For All" or "LV Fierce" are very energized, they are elitists, not populists. They have no empathy for and little understanding of blue collar families.
The "All" in Lehigh Valley for All is rich white people. The Harrington's are so out of touch.
I think you are misjudging the Pennsylvania electorate, Bernie.
Wow 7:08...really drinking the Trump Kool aid huh?
"PRODUCTIVE citizens of America are beginning to realize the "guy in the White House" is doing a pretty good job.
He works extremely hard. "
ARE YOU KIDDING ME! Golfs like a fiend. His daily schedule is 3 hours of meetings and then a FOX marathon.
" He has fulfilled many campaign promises already. He has established himself as a dominate geopolitical leader."
BEFORE you decide that he's a dominant leader, let's wait and see what his ego driven foreign policy actually does, its WAY to early to tell.
" Those who pay taxes, receive a Social Security or other kind of pension, pay taxes on those amounts at a LOWER rate than before."
I HOPE you enjoy the few dollars that you get back, meanwhile the deficit is soaring and already rich folks are getting the tax break that they really didn't need...OH and wait until Trump and the Republican Congress CUT your Social Security because they've created the mess!
Anonymous @ May 17, 2018 at 5:29 AM
"A commenter yesterday bemoaned Nothstein’s lack of a college degree."
No college degree does not equal uneducated. For example, some would claim that not having obtained a college degree and building a business from scratch, would be something with which one should be proud. That must be quite the real world, practical and applicable, educational experience. I have experienced those who have lots of initials after their name and may be able to explain well in theory; but, who have no real ability when it comes to practically applying that theory or knowledge to the real world. There are those who are "book smart", but, have no common sense. I know some who know the Bible inside and out; yet they do not seem to be able to apply biblical principles in real world situations. Another example is one who does not have a college degree and may experience a health challenge, such as dealing with a very rare form of cancer. That individual would certainly have learned of and know more about that process than someone who did not. The class-mates and other witnesses of the tragedy at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in February became “educated” in a way that we would never want anyone to experience. The examples are endless. How one applies what they have learned and the principles which they demonstrate are much more important than what may be covered throughout ones’ schooling. Schooling and initials are not the only means to an "education".
"Excellent observations Bernie."
They are not my observations, which is probably why they are excellent. I heard this on WHYY last night and thought my readers would think they are interesting.
I believe both parties are getting too extremist. I never liked Trump. I don't like him now. I consider him an authoritarian and a danger to this country. But the press is too obsessed with him. When Syria launched its latest chemical attack, it was actually difficult to find news accounts bc there were so many Stormy Daniels stories. And these are from guys who actually think they are unbiased.
One commenter decries Trump and his "ANIMALISTIC" defenders. I see plenty of that on the left, too.
Bernie I had redd yesterday's comments and seen the gloryhole gatherers were taking breaks and annoying you while you were trying to write today's article?
You know Bernie I heard through the grapevine a few carnival workers are orientating a nue party favor worker into there stable of far out of hand actZ for there freak showZ.
Did you watch the vid of the lady shitting on the floor of one of the finer establishmentz? That could have been a gloryhole gatherers doing what itZ do behind the stall walls.
republican redd
humanist by design
not a party favor
". The Washington Examiner is a conservative outfit, so you may want to take their analysis with a grain of salt."
I am well aware that Wahington Examiner is conservative. If you are interested in finding the truth, you need to expand your horizons a bit and consider sources whose views are different than yours. What struck me in that program was how well reasoned and logical these conservatives were.
"2. Bernie made the same dire predictions that Josh Shapiro was going to lose for PA Attorney General after Morganelli came in a distant 3rd in the primary."
What precisely does this have to do with an observation from a radio program, and one that I am merely passing on? The fact my prediction was incorrect has little relevance to a factual observation made by someone else. Your logic escapes me.
"I think you are misjudging the Pennsylvania electorate, Bernie."
Robert Trotner, As I have explained, I am passing along the observations of someone else. The Pa.electorate has of not been heard. Just the parties. 64% of the LV Dems who voted went with the "progressive" over a moderate. 34% of the LV Dems who voted went for a faux progressive who actually has dedicated her career to screwing the little guy.
"The "All" in Lehigh Valley for All is rich white people. The Harrington's are so out of touch."
That is my take.
Lehigh Valley For All is an upscale suburban
establishment Clinton-Dem club.
"There was no contested Governors race. Don't be fooled."
That's an excellent observation.
What is Wild going to run on?
Fully legalize cannabis.
Game over.
The further Wild moves the Democrats to the left the more moderates and independents they lose. Wack jobs such as her and college kids votes are not going to get them very far.
Yet, the conventional wisdom is that Bernie Sanders would have beat Trump.
This is post-Trump America. See: this election.
Bernie, the data doesn't support the conclusions of the R talking heads from WAMU, at least at the local county level. I went to the Lehigh and Northampton County voter registration sites. In 2018 there were 42,497 votes cast in the Democratic primary for Congress, far exceeding the 29,433 cast in the Republican primary. (I did not try to count the Monroe Cty votes.) So D turnout was far stronger than R. In the last non-presidential year Congressional (2014) from Lehigh and Northampton, 10,785 votes were cast for Republican candidates in the 15th and 3301 in the 17th, and 134 Democratic votes in the 15th (they had no D candidate in the primary in the 15th) and 4771 in the 17th. Because there was no Dem in the primary, and Lehigh and Northampton were like now in the same district, probably 2010 is a better year to compare. In Lehigh plus Northampton, there were 30,428 votes cast for a Dem candidate (mostly Callahan) and 32,539 cast for a Rep (mostly Dent). So Dem turnout in Lehigh and Northampton this time around was far greater than in the previous two non-presidential primaries. And it was far greater than the Republican turnout. Far from being pessimistic, I think this data provides evidence that Progressive Democrats have reason to be optimistic in November. Links to the sites I used are here: https://www.northamptoncounty.org/CTYADMN/ELECTNS/Pages/Results.aspx https://www.lehighcounty.org/Departments/Voter-Registration/Election-Results Needless to say I didn't bother looking at the Presidential election years -- turnouts are just not comparable.
I guess Bernie will be regurgitating Gobber Walsh's alt-right radio rants this Fall. He will no doubt do his usual frantic shows and interviews about the end of civilization if bicycle boy does not win the election.
Walsh will continue to ding his sponsors and lose his auto races at the same time.
Sanders couldn’t win but a few primaries. And nobody had learned of his crooked wife until after the primaries. Trump would have defeated him laughably. Conventional wisdom my ass.
Bill White ha san excellent article today on the primaries. I think his analysis is spot on. Unlike O'Hare's mancrush mania, White paints a realistic and pragmatic analysis of what happened.
Of course the dems were motivated, they had 6 candidates trying to out left each other, except for JM. So their ballot had something for everyone. Most activist dems had someone that related to them. The republicans had 2 candidates whose positions were almost identical. Many probably figured either would do. Some just looked at who would be the most electable. If it would have been Edwards and the Wild woman, it would not have been that well attended. Actually Morganelli intensified their turnout.
10% of the electorate in NC and LC is Independent. Trump grabbed them and won NC. Ds enjoy 30% and 39% more registered voters in those counties. Rs don’t win unless Independents fall strongly their way. Independents don’t seem to tend toward progressives. Rs have a shot against impossible odds. Nobody thought Trump could do it. I think the silent majority of his votes came from people who don’t like him, were embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for him, but really didn’t like the progressive option. General elections are largely lesser of two evils affairs decided pragmatically by moderates.
The alt-right is working hard to spin this defeat into a victory., Fact is people are disgusted by Trump and the new GOP. Some of the right wing that live on this blog will go on and on about the boogie man of "North Korean Socialism(whatever the Hell that is)", however people want a course correction. They see through the intolerance and nonsense of the last gasps of the "me" generation. It is time to rebuild a civil society. Thanks for the memories.
"Fact is people are disgusted by Trump and the new GOP.'
The fact is that according to CNN, Trump's approval rating is at 55% and growing. Given that is CNN, it's probably significantly more than 55%
That's ok however, you'll get your wake-up in November.
"What is Wild going to run on? "
Probably Impeach Trump. I don't know what else she wants to run on. Raise taxes? Cut national defense? No one knows, and I don't think she does either. Just whatever Pelosi tells her I suppose.
Whatever Trump and the alt-right is against. She has a winner in Medicare for all. Big medicine and pharmaceuticals have strangled the golden goose. Also crumbling infrastructure. Civilization and a society based on equality under the law.
Anon 1:43pm said: "Sanders couldn’t win but a few primaries."
It didn't matter how many he won, the Clinton people had the process rigged to keep him from winning no matter what.
And the local Clinton wing of the party made sure that Edwards wasn't going to win here either.
Civilization and a society based on equality under the law.
Social justice... ? Another term for wealth redistribution and socialism. Yeah, that's a real winner.
" Medicare for all."
Bernie Sanders plan. OK .. now go find a doctor who will accept medicare rates. How much is it going to cost and who is going to pay for it ?
"I think this data provides evidence that Progressive Democrats have reason to be optimistic in November. "
All of us know that turnout was the only reason Trump became President. That mistake won't be made this year. And we're finding out how propaganda was used either via Russia, conservative groups, and the Sanders campaign unknowingly to produce negative feelings toward Hillary Clinton that did NOT exist when she was Sec of State.
I don't know if this is good news in the 7th District anymore after seeing that the Veledrome is being sued by a former employee over Nothstein's actions on WFMZ.
"Sanders couldn’t win but a few primaries. And nobody had learned of his crooked wife until after the primaries. Trump would have defeated him laughably. Conventional wisdom my ass."
Rust-belt Trump morons fell for Bernie's pitch too. Bernie would have taken a large chunk of rust-belt Trump morons.
The fact is that according to CNN, Trump's approval rating is at 55% and growing. Given that is CNN, it's probably significantly more than 55%
Bullshit. Trump is at 41% with 53% disapproving according to latest CNN poll. Nice try, Komrade Boris.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-steady-right-direction-rises/index.html
It didn't matter how many he won, the Clinton people had the process rigged to keep him from winning no matter what.
Oh please. Bernie got his ass handed to him in large states like PA and CA. That had nothing to do with DNC or HRC. Quit whining. As for Edwards, no thinking Democrat wants a reverend in Congress.
Oh ya, 3.43 everybody just loved Hillary, what world are you living in, she had so much baggage from the past she had everybody carrying for her and still couldn't win. Do really believe the Russians made those people vote for Trump? Even Bill looked like he may not have voted for her. His enthusiasm was very weak. After all he knew her better than anyone and he looked very weak for her.
3:49 These polls are garbage. They routinely sample Democratic voters 15-20% more often. It's more likely Trump is closer to 60% than he is to 40%.
" Do really believe the Russians made those people vote for Trump?"
well it seems that the NRA funneled cash for Comrade trump.
amazing how a group of gun humpers would allow themselves to be used by Putin.
NRA funneled cash for Comrade trump.
And the Russians funneled cash into the Clinton Foundation.
Far as I know, the NRA is a United States organization which can support candidates, from dogcatcher to President. An organization which millions of Americans belong to and support voluntarily.
It must be the time of the month or the full moon.
Hillary was a dud candidate, just admit it, thing is, who do the dems got for 2020, old Bernie and Biden, hell according to the actuary tables , they are already on borrowed time.
If anything will make Trump look good it will be the Democratic candidate.
5:12 I'd bet on Kamala Harris. She's black and female. Perfect for the Democrats Identity poliics, plus she doesn't carry any of the "White Privilege" that Bernie or Uncle Joe does.
This worked out for John. He is too busy running Bethlehem for Donchez.
”I guess Bernie will be regurgitating Gobber Walsh's alt-right radio rants this Fall. He will no doubt do his usual frantic shows and interviews about the end of civilization if bicycle boy does not win the election.”
You apparently listen to him. I don’t except when he interviews candidates and elected officials.
The program 1a is a product of WAMU and is broadcast on public radio. The program is balanced and includes liberals and conservatives.
Fritz Walker, you point that there were more Ds than Rs, but that was not the point. The point was the percentage of Ds who voted. But as another reader observed, the percentage voting may be dependent on who is running for Governor and whether that race is contested.
Wagner is hungry, he has been working for 2 years, it will be a hard fought campaign, then Barlata and Casey, it will be fireworks.
Sooo much can happen between now and Nov to directly or indirectly influence this election: Tweets, terrorism, war(s), economy (good or bad), investigations, scandals, candidate skeletons. I think the only thing fairly safe to predict is that between Governors race, Senate race, and House race, regardless of the elation or disappointment various voting blocks feel at the moment, all races are anyone's call but there is a enough at stake that voters will come out, whether out of ideological passion or hold-your-nose pragmatism. This is bound to be an interesting Fall.
Marty/velodrome law suit..Wild has her first bullets.
Orloski representing claimant..HA!
I hope we're treated to several more articles of Bernie tearfully explaining that despite huge turnouts and country-wide victories, the Left is dead because Dems elected a Democrat instead of Morganelli.
Is it a Democrat or a Marxist.
Turnout was by no means huge. But thanks to "experts" like Kathy Harrington, Democrats managed to elect the most vulnerable candidate as the party's nominee to face off against an Olympic gold medal winning athlete. She will be torn to shreds over her ties to Fed Ed, something Morganelli refused to do. Her record as a lawyer representing insurance companies and even men who sexually harass women will be exposed. Republicans will pour even more money into this race. In November you can tearfully explain why you went with a liar over a decent man who had this kooky idea that we should work together. You have elected Marty Nothstein.
Harrington is a dyed in the wool hack of the most craven type.
11.56
my bad line should be "i would only hope no"
my apologies
11:56, Your comment is deleted bc it is untruthful and distorts John's views. By the way, the race is over. John lost. I have no obligation to host these distortions any longer. Go drink some herbal tea.
I hear the Smart People in LV4all are now making up her platform to run on. I can’t wait to hear it
Morganelli did himself in when he tweeted Trump. No way dems were going to back him after that. Wilds will win in November.
The NRA funneled money to Trump? Good. That's exactly what I want my membership dues to do. Hillary's cheapskate zombies let the Russians fund their candidate. Lefties are always looking for someone else to pick up their tab. Dems are the party of alligator arms - even to the point where they support Russian funding of their elections. That's how Hillary's "RESET" worked. Drunken traitorous hag.
Oh ya, 3.43 everybody just loved Hillary, what world are you living in, she had so much baggage from the past she had everybody carrying for her and still couldn't win. Do really believe the Russians made those people vote for Trump? Even Bill looked like he may not have voted for her. His enthusiasm was very weak. After all he knew her better than anyone and he looked very weak for her.
She got 3 million more votes than Trump.
3:49 These polls are garbage. They routinely sample Democratic voters 15-20% more often. It's more likely Trump is closer to 60% than he is to 40%.
You're the one that touted the poll. And then we find out you bullshitted. Nice retreat. Typical Trump moron.
"You have elected Marty Nothstein."
I'd rather lose with dignity than win without.
The NRA funneled money to Trump? Good. That's exactly what I want my membership dues to do. Hillary's cheapskate zombies let the Russians fund their candidate. Lefties are always looking for someone else to pick up their tab. Dems are the party of alligator arms - even to the point where they support Russian funding of their elections. That's how Hillary's "RESET" worked. Drunken traitorous hag.
Russians funneled money to Republicans via the NRA. Keep this in mind has you run protection for Komrade Trump. I love how you maroons try and say "no, Hillary colluded!" Nice try, russkie.
I think Bernie is right on with regard to the November election where Morganelli would have prevailed. Wild is a Pelossi democrat lawyer with ties to Allentown corruption vs an Olympic gold medalist. By the time November rolls around the electorate will realize that the tax cut put more money in their pockets & Trump made that happen against the Dems wishes.
In addition, the illegal immigrants taking jobs from Lehigh Valley residents will be rounded up by Morganelli working with ICE auditing workplaces.
Socialist dems are not the friends of working class Americans & that will be the campaign theme against Wild. Would not have worked against Morganelli.
Bernie O'Hare, for Lehigh County Democrats represented 59.1% of the vote total, which is actually higher than their percentage of registered voters in the County (58.4%). (I didn't have time to check the Northampton County numbers.) But as you well know, Republicans historically have higher turnout. And of course you are correct that Republicans had Governor and Senate contested elections which should have driven even higher turnout. So really the point of the original post was that turnout indicated a lack of enthusiasm on the Democratic side, and my point is the data says the opposite.
That's a fair point, and I am inclined to agree.
Selena Zito? Oh brother.
by the time election time comes around Gas will be at 4 dollars a Gallon and ever cent of the, crumbs from the tax cut will be eaten up by that, and more.
trump tax break was great but the local democrat on school boards and cities will take it away all democrats do is tax
Bernie, I disagree with the hypothesis of those who spoke on media. They are nothing more than paid spin doctors, and it is in their own best interests to spout the message they want to project, which does not mesh with reality. The truth is WOMEN are really, really, really, angry about the policies of the President, and they make up 52.7 percent of our population, as well as 53.8 % of the registered voters. They are highly motivated and are very, very. very, pissed off. (Yes, I am mocking the speech patterns of the current President) You never make women angry without expecting some retribution.
Also, Marty Nothstein can fire away at Susan Wild all he wants, that noxious environment at the Velodrome has existed for years, no one should be shocked that his feelings towards non whites are what they are. That will be played as often as anything thrown at Wild, and I think that makes that part of the race a draw.
trump tax break was great but the local democrat on school boards and cities will take it away all democrats do is tax
Because A) Democrats govern and get things done and B) Repubs are good at spending but not nearly good at raising revenue.
It is now June...Nothstein signs still dot the landscape as well as Browning. This is not acceptable. Take down the signs you all put up!
It is now June...Nothstein signs still dot the landscape as well as Browning. This is not acceptable. Take down the signs you all put up!
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