Hyman: Morning Call Altered Poll to Favor O'Connell

Allentown Mayoral candidate Nat Hyman is making a pretty incredible claim. He has told Morning Call publisher Robert York that he refuses to participate in their coverage of the mayoral election because he considers their actions and reporting to be unethical.

He asked York to publish the following letter in the Morning Call.

To the Morning Call readers:

I am a life long Allentonian. I decided to run for Mayor because, above all else, I felt it was essential to return integrity and honesty to our city.

Recently, the publisher of the Morning Call wrote a letter to the readers stating that their criteria for including candidates in their coverage is a polling number showing that they are receiving 15% or more of the vote. The poll clearly showed that a write in candidate received 9%, yet the Morning Call led the readers to believe he received 22%. What they didn't make clear to the reader is that the 22% was in response to a question asking who would you vote for if that write in candidate's name were on the ballot, which it is not and never will be because he lost in the primary and is now prohibited by Pennsylvania law from running on the ballot. Despite this and the publisher's proclamation of the 15% threshold, they are now including that person in their coverage.

If I am going to be the Mayor I want to be, I have to stand up to dishonesty everywhere....the Mayor, the President of City Council and, yes, the Morning Call. I believe that a man's word is the man himself. Accordingly, I have informed the publisher that I will not be part of their campaign coverage, despite the fact that doing so might be at great expense to my campaign. I must be true to my sense of honor and integrity.

There is no question I will not answer. So, if any of you have any questions for me, you may feel free to email me directly at Nat@Hymangroup.com

I've asked Hyman to explain how he knows that The Morning Call has misrepresented a nine percent polling figure as 22%. I will share his response when I receive it. I have also emailed publisher Robert York for his take.

Hyman is running against three candidates who are on the ballot and City Council President Ray O'Connell, who is staging a write-in. He acknowledged this may be very well be unhelpful to his campaign.

Updated 10:20 am: Hyman Explains Conclusion that Morning Call Misrepresents Poll -

In Thursday's front page article, The smaller headline stated "Write-in candidate O'Connell earns 22 percent of likely voters, a close third." That simply is untrue!  In the article, Emily Opilo wrote: "Ray O'Connell, whose name will not appear on the ballot, had a strong showing at 22% in a field of five". Under our pictures they showed Hyman 32%, Pawlowski 30% and O'Connell 22%.

Evidence that was dishonest reporting comes from Yesterday's article (Sunday) in which Opilo wrote:
"In the poll, 12 percent said they would choose a candidate other than the four on the ballot. Of those, 94 percent said they would select O'Connell."

Clearly those two depictions of the poll are at odds! So, regardless if Ray is at 9%, 11% or even all of the 12%, he did not meet the threshold of 15% stated by the publisher . O'Connell has zero chance of winning this race and can only act as a spoiler. I think that's an important fact for the readers to know. Yet the Morning Call appears to have their own agenda.

To be clear, If Ray had met the 15% threshold I would absolutely be part of their coverage. But a systemic problem in Allentown is that the rules apply to some and not others. I will play by the rules but I expect everyone to do the same.

Updated 11:20 am: Morning Call Publisher Robert York responds to Hyman. - (My conclusion is that The Morning Call is being fair and honest. Ray O'Connell did poll at 22% when he was named.) 

Thanks for the opportunity to respond.

Here’s a podcast we just posted that explains our polling and coverage of the race.
Chris Borick does a better job of explaining the science than I could and Emily provides some behind the scenes look at the challenges of covering this race.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/valley-view/mc-valley-view-podcast-allentown-race-for-mayor-episode-2-20171006-htmlstory.html

Below is copy of a note that I sent to Nat on Friday afternoon in response to his raising concerns and his request for us to publish the note he sent to you. (In sending to you, I removed two short sentences from this note because they would be out of context for this discussion)
Let me know if you need anything else.
Best,
Robert

Nat,

This race is unique and polling for this race reflects it.

Most campaign experts will stipulate that polling of a write-in is very difficult.

There is no direct data to support that Ray received 12% of the polling responses. The 12% is a “none of the above/other” answer. When the poll takers asked (without a name prompt) who the likely voter intended, 94% of the respondents named Ray O’Connell.

When prompted with all names of candidates who have declared interest and are publically campaigning – Ray O’Connell polled at 22%.

The resulting logic is that Ray is polling somewhere between 12% and 22% +/- the margin of error.

You contend it should be 9% - %12, you may be right.

We estimate it’s somewhere between 12% and 22%, we may be right.

For that reason, we’ve decided to proceed on the side of inclusion..

Readers can see the poll for what it is and make their own conclusions about the methodology, fairness and accuracy. For that reason and others, we won’t be publishing your note.

Best,
Robert