Senator Orie, Facing Criminal Charges, Begins to Sag in Polls

With just thirty-two days left before the November 2 election, criminally indicted Senator Jane Orie has dropped below 50% in a Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies Poll. Criminal charges that she used her campaign office and state resources for personal and political gain, have begun to take a toll. But if she loses her state senate race, she's a shoe-in for a starring role in the next Exorcist moview.

Despite overwhelming name recognition, Jane Orie fails to reach 50% on the current vote. Once voters are reminded of Orie’s criminal indictment, she trails DeMarco by three points (45% DeMarco/ 42% Orie).

Jane Orie now has a net-unfavorable rating among voters. Orie is now viewed unfavorably by 45% of voters, including 23% who have a very unfavorable view of her. Only 44% have a favorable view of Orie. More troubling for Orie is that 71% of undecided voters have an unfavorable view of her, leaving little room for the possibility of vote expansion.

Jane Orie’s negative job rating is nearly equal to her positive job rating. Voters give Orie a 49% positive/ 42% negative job rating, far below the crucial two-to-one ratio considered safe for incumbents. Among undecided voters, Orie fares far worse, with only a 32% positive/ 57% negative job rating.

“Over the past few months, I’ve had the privilege of talking with people from across the 40th district, and this poll confirms a constant theme from the campaign trail—my message of ending the culture of corruption in Harrisburg has be resonating with voters,” says her opponent, Dan DeMarco. “We cannot be serious about reforming our state government if we continue to re-elect the very people who are part of the problem.”

Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted 401 interviews with randomly-selected likely 2010 General Election voters in Pennsylvania’s 40th State Senate District. Interviews were conducted between September 19-22, 2010. Expected margin of sampling error for these results +/-4.9% with a 95% confidence level.