As we all know, Republicans now control the US House. An analysis by Pew Research concludes that it is actually GOP turnout, and not vote switching, that made the difference. This increased turnout is likely the result of dissatisfaction with the direction in which this country was heading under Joe Biden and a Democratic House. At the same time, Democrats sat on their hands. They voted for Biden in 2020, but stayed home in 2022. It is not a huge difference, but was enough to turn the House red.
My view is that this Democratic malaise will continue if Biden continues his campaign for President.
Here's a few other finding:
1) Voters under 30 continued to strongly support the Democratic Party, voting 68% to 31% for Democratic candidates.
2) Ideological polarization by party was nearly complete in 2022 (i.e., not many will split tickets)
3) Voting in person on Election Day increased sharply in 2022 compared with 2020. (This is a mistake by Republicans becaue they are failing to identify low propensity voters and get them to the polls early)
4) White voters without college degrees made up a majority (54%) of Republican voters in 2022, compared with 27% of Democratic voters. (This is indicative that Democrats are losing a key voting block, the working poor.)
5) Voters ages 50 and older were a larger share of the total in 2022 (64%) than in any of the past three elections.
6) Hispanic voters continued to support Democrats, but by a much smaller margin than in 2018.
7) Black voters continued to support Democrats by overwhelming margins. 93% voted Democratic.
8) The Republican advantage among White evangelical Protestants was somewhat larger in 2022 than in the past three elections. 86% votes Republican.
22 comments:
Well the analysis is for 2022.
The points have validity yet it is not 2022 anymore.
The republicans have done what with their razor thin majority?
Currently they are wanting to defund law enforcement and pushing conspiracy theories from foreign agents on the lam.
The republicans are fractured with a cult following a desperate con man.
They have pushed for nothing that would benefit the average American.
The party of Herschel Walker and OZ failed America unless one considers Marge Greene a deep-thinking principled public servant
Joe Biden will never win a second term under a legitimate election process. It’s not just Biden who people are unhappy with, it’s most of his administration, too. I believe the Democrat Party knows this. The problem for the party is just how to remove him without making things easier for Donald Trump to return. Kamala Harris is no ray of hope to lead the nation to a better place. So, what we see, I think, is a drawn out delay in hope Trump will somehow be taken out of the equation. It’s obvious, everything but the kitchen sink is being thrown at Trump. So far, nothing seems to stick.
Not to worry, elections are just symbolic of democracy which is no longer is relevant in the new transformed America.
We are doomed as a nation if the tRump republican party gets it's cult leader back in office! Civil War! Vote Blue or Die!
Completely agree with this analysis. My parents were both ardent blue collar union employees (school bus driver and steelworker) and loyal Democrats. If they were alive, I'm certain they would have voted for Trump. They wouldn't recognize today's Democratic Party. As a moderate Democrat myself, I'll occasionally cross over and vote Republican if I like the candidate. I'm mostly interested in the Democratic Party attracting younger, more diverse candidates who can truly understand the needs of everyday working class Americans.
Interesting that the Republicans have now become the party of the people while dems are now the elite & unions. Colleges profs & administrations have so blatantly pushed their Marxist agendas & the sheep drank the cool aid to become the leftist Democrats we have today.
The Black population will at some point figure out what the Hispanic community is learning & the Republicans will become more diverse in the process.
Thanks for this analysis--very interesting and I wish Dems would act. I'll just add that it's common to use "working poor" to mean White working poor. In fact, people of all races can be and are working poor. Talking about White working poor is more accurate and doesn't implicitly ignore people of color.
I am very concerned that Democrats are no longer the blue collar party, but would argue we should be. Our messaging is off, thanks to people within our party who prioritize other ideas over the vast middle. I understand and sympathize with PRIDE, but our primary focus should always be the guy in the coal mine, the farmer in a field, the guy digging a ditch. I do think these people are conned by Trump's populism, but we have done a poor job of keeping our base.
To the reader who suggests we are no longer a democracy (and please don't start with "we are a constitutional republic"), I'd be forced to agree we are no longer democratic. What Congress does is in accord with what their large contributors want, not what the people want. What does is money. https://act.represent.us/sign/problempoll-fba
Bernie @10:33AM - Your second-to-last sentence sums up everything wrong with American government today. In reality, there is NO two party system. We are being governed now by one political party . . . a UniParty. Both sides of the UniParty (R&D) have the same goals. These include remaining in office, fundraising for re-election, and enjoying the (usually) hidden benefits that accrue to they and their family members.
Yes, there IS a big problem with outside perks and privileges. Shouldn’t that be obvious to most right now? Evidence of money-laundering and grifting by our elected officials is everywhere. There seems to be an unspoken agreement between the parties not
to address it. Depending on their political bent, news media plays ignorant, too.
Special interest groups, global corporations, and even other countries, like China and Ukraine, keep the whole system functioning for our elected people. Is it any wonder an outspoken critic like Donald Trump is despised by both D&R Members of Congress? He’s a disruptor to the ways things are usually done in Washington.
Will be funny to watch all the democrats with a straight face vote for Biden in the next presidential just cuz they hate trump...(as Biden munches on a little girls back)
I left the democrat party 15 years ago. I’m not happy with either party now, and I’ll be happy when both Trump and Biden are gone. The one stat that should scare democrats more than any other is they are losing hispanic voters in droves.
11:41, Your analysis is correct up to the point where you contend Trump is an outspoken critic. To the contrary, he is a player who has routinely engaged in the very practices you decry. What separates him is that he has tapped into resentments, fears and hatred of anyone other than him. When he was in office, he made absolutely no effort to reform a system broken by unlimited spending in which money decides elections. He has instead been an active participant. He and his family did quite a bit of grifting themselves. We badly need campaign finance reform, but most people fail to see the importance of money in politics. Yes, there is a Uniparty. But Trump is very much one of its leaders. Don't delude yourself to think otherwise simply because he is vulgar and likes Big Macs. You've been played. Don't feel bad. That's what he does.
One of the posters made the comment, that the president needs to be concerned with the needs of the people. I believe that is not seeing the forest through the trees, the president needs to be focused on the long term good of the country. If the country is prosperous, and free of corruption and follows the constitution, everyone will prosper. Trying to satisfy every group with their wants and desires will end in insolvency.
Lets face it he country is in trouble. We have an enormous debt and growing, we are overextended militarily around the world. The country is divided as bad as the lead up to the civil war. We are making more enemies than friends, even if it is not yet apparent. We have lost much of our manufacturing ability. We have a $880 billion defense budget and we and NATO cant manufacture enough ammo. Where has all the money gone? I suspect on very expensive sophisticated equipment that is hard to use and hard to maintain.
That and the buying of friends for decades.
Sadly most americans think all is well, we will get through it, I am not so sure.
One more time. Republicans do not want to defend the police. I'm so tired of democrats turning their issues around and blaming republicans
Well, 3:18, I certainly agree with your opinions here. My point is this . . . of all the candidates in the presidential field today, Trump is the most likely to bring about the greatest amount of positive change to our nation. He is also best able to reverse our course quickly.
Trump is most likely to keep us out of World War 3, reduce the size of our government, secure our borders, eliminate the drug cartels who now operate within our nation, strengthen our military, make America energy independent, support our police, fire, and other first responders, protect our national sovereignty from the globalists’ One World government vision, protect free speech, and enforce the rules of our laws as delineated in our Constitution. In this, I have no doubt.
If Trump is permitted to run, he gets my vote. No Democrat will do, obviously. Nor any of the other announced Republicans.
Normal Americans are getting tired of the woke, LGBTQRSTUVWXYZ crap. Pendulum will swing back hard eventually.
July 14, 2023 at 5:50 PM
Hey wake up, you are a moron.
Give me a prolife Democrat, and I'll consider voting for him/her. Where are the Gov. Casey's of today?
It's funny to watch old school Democrats cling like lost dogs to a party that left them behind. Unless, of course, they like all the rainbow garbage being shoved down our throats and up our school age boys' asses. Happy days are here again! The party of sickness needs your continued support, working poor and minorities it would rather head of via abortion, than have to hear complain about ..... food and jobs and things. Oh yeah, and get vaxxed or we'll fire your ass, you stupid dupes.
3:18, Trump increased the national debt by $7.9 trillion.
8.35
" Unless, of course, they like all the rainbow garbage being shoved down our throats"
Well the maga cult missed the memo.
trump invited a gay group to his home and said
“We are fighting for the gay community, and we are fighting and fighting hard,” the former president and 2024 candidate said. “With the help of many of the people here tonight in recent years, our movement has taken incredible strides, the strides you’ve made here is incredible.”
"Throughout the evening, speakers praised Trump for his embrace of the gay community. They credited him for his initiatives to combat the criminalization of homosexuality, his work pushing for public heath initiatives to combat the HIV epidemic, and for appointing the first openly gay Cabinet member, Grenell, as director of national intelligence."
Good start for trump as his progressive views are good for the GOP.
That means the maga folks must embrace trump's word and the rest of the GOP must follow or suffer the wrath of trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/16/celebration-same-sex-marriage-mar-a-lago-00074441
Major spelling error. Defund.
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