On April Fools Day, I predicted Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nod. True, Barack Obama's campaign does send at least ten spam emails every day. I've even seen volunteers in fancy blue T-shirts prancing up and down the streets of Easton and Nazareth. But Hillary is going to win big in Pennsylvania, and will leave this state with the momentum needed to attract superdelegates and money. She will be the Democratic nominee.Who can she thank for this? Barack Obama.
Instead of trying to deliver a knock out punch, he actually spotted her a two week head start. His condescending remark that small town Pennsylvanians "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them," has gained him very few votes. Instead of appearing eloquent or even thoughtful in his widely-viewed debate, he came across as petulant and petty. To make matters worse, he accused Clinton of "slash and burn" politics just yesterday. Perhaps most foolish of all, he has conceded defeat before the polls have even opened.
In addition to Obama's own errors, his "well-oiled hope machine" has been a disaster. Although they might be good at telling us what to think in neverending emails, they're slow to answer questions. I have yet to get responses to any of the emails or telephone calls placed with his local and state campaign.
And it goes way beyond me.
One state representative was leaning towards Obama last time I spoke to him, but was complaining that no one ever called him as promised. And Northampton County Exec John Stoffa reports a similar experience. "It is disappointing to me that Obama spent so little time in Pennsylvania - in essence he gave up on us. Just imagine if he had fought hard here and won, just think the message that would have sent. Although I offered, I was never contacted by any one from his campaign. On the other hand I was contacted three different times by Hillary people and invited to support her - the most recent at Liberty. I refused all three because I believe that he is the better candidate. He may not be as organized as most people think."
After the polls close tomorrow, Clinton will have the momentum she needs, thanks to Obama and a poorly run campaign.
27 comments:
Bernie,
I will make two predictions.
First, I guarantee that during June/July there will be serious discussions by pundits and several "meetings" by the superdelegates to discuss another candidate and the possibility of dumping both Hillary & Obama.
Second, I won't guarantee it, but I think it is highly likely that another candidate will win the nomination.
Joe, Here's my prediction. You will turn D.
Are you smoking that funny weed again. Hillary has as much chance of winning the nomination as we do.
He is winning in North carolina and Indiana. Following those votes and the reat of the piddling states voting afterwards he will be within 100 votes of the nomination. By then most superdelegates will swing over to him. No way she wins..
rest of the piddling states....
Care to place a wager?
Not sure what this means for Obama's "well-oiled machine" but I dropped lit off at 5 polls between 7:30 and 8:30 in Bethlehem, and there was not 1 person working those polls for Obama. Clinton had at 3 or 4 people at 3 of the polls and 2 people at the other 2 polls. Clinton has volunteers lined up on 3 hour rotating shifts at all the polls.
Obama's "youthful" volunteers must have slept in. They did not even have a presence at those polls, not one sign!
Not a good sign for Obama. I will check a few of the polls today.
Don't be quick to judge the Obama campaign based on what you see in the Lehigh Valley alone.
This is a large state.
Obama has smart people working for him. They know PA is un-winnable given the state demographics. The state is the 3rd oldest (resident age) in the nation.
The other thing that Obama's camp knows and you obviously haven't realized yet is that the race is already over. It's been over. Just because Hillary won't admit doesn't make it not true. Obama would have to pull a Donna Rice at this point.
Oh, and that's a bold prediction that Hillary is going to win big. Get cable and you might be in tune with the latest polling.
Hayshaker,
Yep. The race is over. Keep telling yourself that. It is that type of overconfidence that leads to defeat. The poll I'll be watching is the one going on right now. Hillary needs a ten point victory. If she doesn't get it, she's done. If she does, momentum swings her way.
While you're out there counting how few delegates Clinton has, you seem to have forgotten to count Obama's. He does not have enough either. This race is by no means over, and when it is, I suspect it will be Hillary on top.
You can easily extrapolate the states. Even if Hillary wins 65-35 in the remaining states, Obama STILL HAS MORE DELEGATES.
I'm still waiting for you to outline the scenario in which HC wins the nomination. You can't just make outlandish predictions and not back them up with any facts.
The last post you made is very different than the Blog post. You just said she needs to win by 10 or its over. It's highly unlikely she will win by 10.
Hayshaker,
I said she was going to win big, and she is. But she needs a 10 point win to have a big enough margin to claim momentum is on her side.
The simple truth is this is going to boil down to the superdelegates. Contrary to everything that must be spoon fed to you by the talking heads on those cable programs you insist I watch, neither candidate is going to have enough delegates to assure the nomination going into the convention.
If Obama wins in Pa or Hillary wins by just a few points, I'd agree she should step out of the race. But the reverse will happen bc of a comedy of errors by Obama and his "hope machine."
Superdelegates will give the nomination to the only candidate who can beat McCain in the big states. That person is Clinton.
Super delegates will NOT reverse the will of the people. You are suggesting that is going to happen.
And I'm not telling you to watch talking heads. I'm telling you to stay current with polling. The networks are current as it seems you are relying only on Drudge for updates.
Two sources predicted a double digit victory today. One was Drudge and the other was The Boston Globe.
Super delegates exist to ignore the will of the people. They are there precisely bc the party does not necessarily want the nomination to go to the person with the most votes, as undemocratic as I agree that sounds.
The party rules are designed so that the nomination can go to the person who can actually win in November.
The way our primaries are set up, it's really hard to say with certainty what the population really thinks. It's spread out over such a long time, and people do change their minds in the course of a few months. I happen to be one of them. I was all set to pull that electronic lever for Obama until I saw him in action here. Don't get me wrong. I think he is an inspirational person, but I don't think he's ready. His campaign sure isn't.
The super delegate system is in place to prevent a Jesse Ventura situation not a legitimate candidate.
"County Executive John Stoffa disappoints Northampton County" should be your heading.
Yes, he is a big disppointment to those who believe in pay to play and cronyism. He is a big disppointment to judges who think they run the county. But he is no disappointment to the voters who elected him.
Yes Bernie, I would love to place a wager..Think of something..I know she'll win today easily but no way she gets the nomination..
You already owe me like two million pop tarts..
TomFoolery, the bet she is the nominee. If she wins, you have to write three nice parapgraphs about Ron Angle. If she loses, I have to write three nice things about Sam Bennett or any subject of your choice. Deal?
And I think I only owe you about a million pop tarts.
Deal..Looking forward to it..
Hey, wait a minute..I have to write three paragraphs and you have to write three nice things. Am I giving odds here?
No odds. Three paragraphs from me, too. Done.
Bernie,
The main reason the numbers work against Hilary is the registered independents and republicans who voted for Obama in open primaries.
For some reason the fact that Hilary loses these demographics, by a large margin, is being ignored. PA being a closed primary most likely contributes to this, but those specific numbers work against her.
Independents, moderates, and Social Republicans will not vote for her. It is as simple as that. If PA had an open primary, Obama would win. Hands down. This will eventually be taken into account when picking a nomination.
You take Hillary, I'll take Barack for the final Democratic nominee. Gentlemen's bet Bernie?
Wow! After Hillary's victory speech, I saw Mayor Nutter, Gov. Ed Rendell, Gov. Corzine, Pres Clinton and........DON CUNNINGHAM on the stage. I didn't see anyone else on stage that was invited by Pres Clinton. That much is owed to DON? Subliminal message to everyone else in the Dem Party?
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