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Nazareth, Pa., United States

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Why Hillary Clinton Will Win the Democratic Nod

I intend to vote for Barack Obama. So when I first learned he was opening an office here in the Lehigh Valley, I sent two emails to his local campaign coordinator, Bar Johnston. Perhaps she might feed me some information about local events, which I would in turn share with you. They were sent weeks ago, back on March 6.

I never got a reply.

I do receive approximately six emails daily from Barack's national campaign, but locally, everyone must be too busy to answer a simple email. A prominent local elected official is also getting this run around. On the fence, he was supposed to get a call from Obama's camp weeks ago. He's still waiting.

Hillary is beginning to look more attractive.

On Saturday, I visited Obama's Lehigh Valley site for tickets to his speaking engagement at Muhlenberg. While I saw no information about his upcoming appearance, I did see some rather nasty comments about Hillary Clinton.

"Do you think she wakes up a cunt or does she just play it by ear?"

"Do they even fuck anymore?"

I called Obama's local HQs. A nice lady at the other end was honestly horrified by those comments and they were quickly deleted. But how did they get up there in the first place? While I had her on the line, I asked for an Obama ticket.

"We have nothing to do with those tickets. That's handled on a national level. Check back on the web site throughout the day."

I did, but nothing ever showed up.

Funny thing. The very next day, those tickets suddenly became available at the very office that supposedly had nothing to do with them. By the time I found out, it was too late.

Despite its vaunted reputation as a "well-oiled hope machine," Obama's campaign here is both disorganized and unresponsive. I'm not the only one who's noticed. In addition to that local elected official, at least one local reporter agrees. Only two people in Obama's campaign are authorized to talk to the media in Pa. They're slow to return phone calls, even to real reporters.

Want an example? Last week, a cheerful Obama supporter was standing inside the Northampton County voter registration office with piles of completed registration forms. But when a reporter began talking to her, another Obama volunteer shut her up. "We're not supposed to talk to the press."

Obama has written off Pennsylvania. He knows he can't win here, not in a state with a Governor who supports Hillary and who, in his desire to be Secretary of Something, is tirelessly campaigning for her. So Barack actually spotted the Clintons a two week head start, enough time to build up her own momentum. If he thinks that's no big deal and he can make it up in another state, he needs to talk to Rudy Giuliani.

Last week, in search of news about that goofy Joe Long meet and greet, I called Clinton's local campaign headquarters. It was 11 PM, but campaign coordinator Rob Hopkins answered that phone on the first ring. He had no problem talking, and answered every question.

On the national level, Hillary Clinton's relations with the media are reputedly "strained to the point of active warfare in some cases." But strained relations are better than none at all. And last week, Hillary Clinton walked into The Pittsburgh-Tribune for a ninety minute chat with some of her harshest critics. "It was so counterintuitive, I just thought it would be fun to do."
Owner Richard M. Scaife declared, "I have a very different impression of Hillary Clinton today than before last Tuesday's meeting -- and it's a very favorable one indeed. "

Last week, I had lunch with a Clinton campaign worker. He tipped me off that one of the Clintons (Chelsea?) would make an appearance at Northampton Community College before the primary. Turns out he was right, so I'll tell you his second tip. On election eve, the Clintons will swing through the Lehigh Valley.

My impression is that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for President. She will leave Pennsylvania with both momentum and money. Obama's campaign is in disarray, and Hillary is apparently much warmer and vibrant than commonly thought. Pennsylvania is where she makes her push. If you put your ears to the ground, you'll hear the train rumbling, and it's getting louder and louder.

64 comments:

Blah Society said...

They've both been writing off Pennsylvania, but at least Obama is speaking more - Clinton just sends her family to do the selling for her.

Pamela Varkony said...

Bernie,

This is a very insightful post, mainly because I agree with you. :-)

I think Hillary is going to be the nominee for a multitude of reasons too numerous to mention in a comment box, but among those them is exactly what you are talking about, the Clinton machine.

Politics is about organization and momentum. She's got the one, she'll have the other coming out of Pa. with a double digit win.

Anonymous said...

Bernie: Bar Johnston ran Ed Pawlowski's campaign and also worked a highly paid patronage job in City Hall for a while. I'm sure that she doesn't want to talk you right now.

Anonymous said...

Hillary must be the nominee if this country is to even have a chance at gaining back our economy, education, middle class and our global reputation and respect.

And as for Chelsea, wow, poised, intelligent -- she has developed into a fine young lady - one of the best political people I have had a chance to hear in a long time.

A.J. -- since when is a family a bad thing in this country. She, in light of a national scandal has kept her family together and both Bill and Chelsea represent her extremely well. And don't worry --- she will be here soon.

Anonymous said...

Hillary has won most of the large, blue state primaries with ease. Obama has won all of the quirky, red state caucuses. Hillary has the machine; Obama does not. PA has never been in doubt for Hillary.

As they continue to drive up each others' negatives, however, they give McCain lots of time to raise money while looking more presidential and above the nasty fray.

Anonymous said...

Hillary will not win.

Anonymous said...

if hillary was a student at either west point or annapolis she would have been expelled on an honor code violation after her description of her adventure in bosnia.

is it too much to ask that our commander in chief have the same ethics and morals as our junior officers?

Anonymous said...

I'd like to ask the scholars O'Hare and Varkony EXACTLY how Clinton will win the nomination. You know, using math. Are both of you claiming that Clinton will (1) engage in an ugly credentials committee fight at the convention to seat MI and FL AND (2) persuade super delegates to vote against the popular vote and support Clinton?

I don't see it.

Anonymous said...

Like I always say if you believe the government can solve your problems then you are a Democrat. God bless you. The truth is other than race or gender I don’t see a dimes worth of difference between the two Democrat candidates.
Bernie, while I love the romantic notion of “uniting” to solve our problems how is that possible in the Democrat world of identity politics? It strikes me that the underlying basis of “identity” that is based on race, gender, creed… serves to create distinctions and divides between people.
Wouldn’t it be more inspiring to rally around shared principles and values rather than common skin pigment, religious affiliation or language?

Scott Armstrong

Anonymous said...

Politics is about organization and momentum. She's got the one, she'll have the other coming out of Pa. with a double digit win.

Winning the democratic nomination for President is about winning delegates. Momentum does no good when you trail by 166 pledged delegates.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Bernie: Bar Johnston ran Ed Pawlowski's campaign and also worked a highly paid patronage job in City Hall for a while. I'm sure that she doesn't want to talk you right now.

That would be both parochioal and juvenilke, and it fails to explain why she has not put her campaign in touch with a local elected official.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I'd like to ask the scholars O'Hare and Varkony EXACTLY how Clinton will win the nomination.

I believe I've answered that question. By the time the convention rolls around, Clinton will have most people behind her bc of her momentum.

Fact: Obama has not one any of the big states outside of his home state, Illinois.

Fact: Clinton has the superdelegates locked up. If every uncommitted superdelegate comes down for Obama, she still wins here in Pa. (Nationally, she has the lead and the uncommitted DNC delegates will likely go her way.)

Fact: Clinton is way ahead here in Pa.

If you don't think momentum matters, talk to Rudy Giuliani. If you think Obama has a great campaign machine, look right here.

Anonymous said...

Math, BOH, Math. Are you implying the super delegates will go against the popular vote and appoint Hillary the nominee?

Big states? Math. How many delegates does Obama have.

Anonymous said...

As for Giuliani, he has no place in this discussion. RG never had any momentum, never had any delegates and wrote off Iowa and New Hampshire, inexplicably. He never had a chance.

Anonymous said...

If Hillary won every remaining state by 70-30, she might pull even in pledged delegates. That is the only way she'd have a credible argument to have the super delegates switch to her candidacy.

And there are 326 Super Delegates uncommitted. They have nothing to do with PA per se. Not sure what your point is...

Bernie O'Hare said...

By writing off Pa, Obama has allowed momentum to Swing in Hillary's direction in yet another big state. By the time of the convention, a majority of Dems will support her candidacy. And like you say, it's a question of math. She will have the most delegates. Those uncommitted superdelegates in the DNC, which way do you think they'll be going? There's about 150 of them.

Every time it has mattered, Clinton has come through. Yes, it is going to piss a lot of people off, but I think that's where we're headed.

Anonymous said...

If Hillary becomes President, don't complain when she appears on TV, sells your her fairy tales, and lies to you without blinking her eyes. Years ago people vote for Bush, now they're complaining. If you think she stand for the blue collard worker class, think again. Her political machinery has deep connection with mega wealthy policial special interest groups. They're backing her up as an investment. Whenever she gets in the Office, she will pay back her debt, and it is not to you people.

Anonymous said...

Do you mean the DLC? (Democratic Leadership Council)

Without some catastrophic event, I cannot see any math where HC wins the nomination. The Super Delegates will fall in line with whoever is leading the popular vote and pledged delegates.

Sure, HC will win PA but she'll lose NC and IN. So its a wash. The momentum is a little bit a little too late.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I am well aware of her drawbacks and actually lean towards Obama. But my opinion is that she wins. Contrary to the picture being painted by the MSM, I do not see the Obama campaign as a "well-oiled hope machine." Contrary to the image being presented by the MSM, I do not see Hillary as some sort of shrew and feel I misjudged her a few months ago. They are both good people.

Anonymous said...

I agree. The MSM was unfair. But the math is the math.

But you have to admit, the HC Bosnia lies were exactly the kind of thing the MSM was right about. She will do anything and say anything to the point of mistrust.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Hillary will probably win in Indiana. I agree she loses NC. If you do the math, neither candidate will have enough going into the convention. And that's where she wins. If Barack had a convincing or even not so convincing win here in Pa, he would have put her away. But he wrote the state off, and in my view that is a major strategic error that will cost him the nomination.

Remember, this is just the opinion of some blogger and no expert political strategist.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I'm not going to slam Hillary over those goofy remarks. Clearly she screwed up. Probably a lack of sleep. It was unintentional. Why would she mislead people over something so easily proven to be false? We all occasionally misremember things. Also, I think it is unfair to tie Baracxk to Rev. Wright, but many Pennsylvanians have already done so. That has hurt him, and it will hurt him in Indiana, too.

I appreciate the link to the math. They prove neither cnadidate has this thing locked up. Instead of delivering a knock out punch here, Obama is letting her win Pa. And she will win the convention.

Anonymous said...

I really do not think your experience at the local office is a national phenomenon. The modern Pennsylvania with all of its surface attempts at "inclusion" is still a very biased and prejudiced state. I have heard many remarks about Obama for the past year that have not been flattering. The nick name for this state in the tristate area NJ/NY is "backwards". Now the state has a primary and you hear "it will come down to Pennsylvania" stop believing this hype and BS. Barack Obam will be the nominee, if not Mccain will be president. After all he and Hillary do have a lot in common, they luch with the same lobbyist. Hillary will give us healthcare changes, but the rest will be business as usual. It sad that the American Public may self change themselves again via FEAR of change. HAve fun, if he does not win I have an MBA that I will be using in Canada. I have had it

Blah Society said...

Anon 7:37 -

It's misleading, that's what's wrong with it.

Hillary is sending her family out to do the campaigning for her because they are more popular than she is. She is making it seem like Bill will be the president again, when in fact that's not true.

Chelsea just visited NCC, but where is Hillary? What does Chelsea have to do with anything? Why isn't Hillary doing the question and answer sessions?

Although not too relevant, I still stand strong by my opinion (not mentioned here) that the presidency shouldn't be a family job that is juggled every eight years.

But don't worry, when and if Hillary arrives, she will just tell you what you want to hear and nothing more.

Anonymous said...

Her remarks go the very heart of her candidacy. She made an attempt to turn her "First Ladyhood" into political experience. In a desperate move, she invented some scenario where her life was in danger. I don't buy the lack of sleep excuse. Who invents scenarios in which you are being fire upon out of thin air as a mistake? You don't. You do that when you lie.

There was an internal Obama memo leaked before Iowa. It was the campaign's prediction of their line to victory. It basically has gotten everything correct up until this point. If Obama stays the course, it would take a shift of epic proportions in the super delegates to crown Clinton. You think the LA riots were bad? If HC can manage to win the popular vote, that is the only scenario in which she can claim the nomination, in my anonymous opinion.

Anonymous said...

I really do not think your experience at the local office is a national phenomenon. The modern Pennsylvania with all of its surface attempts at "inclusion" is still a very biased and prejudiced state. I have heard many remarks about Obama for the past year that have not been flattering. The nick name for this state in the tristate area NJ/NY is "backwards".

You are aware the "forwards" NY and NJ voted for Hillary Rodham Clinton, aren't you?

Bernie O'Hare said...

Anon 11:53,

I certainly appreciate and respect your Obama support, but think your message is more anti-Hillary than pro-Obama. I have my own problems with her, but don't think she's quite the monster that many think. Unfortunately, she has had a bad image for many years. But she is the woman who tried (and failed) to bring us universal health care. My own sympathies lie w/ Obama at this stage, but I think we've all been a tad harsh with Hillary, myself included. I question whether I've been a sexist in the way I look at her. In any event, hold off on packing those bags for Canada. My opinion is just that.

Chris Miller said...

Bernie
From your lips to God's ears. I am hoping for a Hillary win.

Anonymous said...

"That would be both parochioal and juvenilke, and it fails to explain why she has not put her campaign in touch with a local elected official." She has Ed Rendell! And like you said about Larry Kane... watch that spelling dude.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Fair enough. In comments, I often make typographical errors. I don't in emails seeking an interview with a presidential candidate.

Anonymous said...

Not a chance!

Hillary lied again. See the truth of HRC's NAFTA history:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/1/85359/24244/36/488126

Anonymous said...

How dare you people pull for Hillary, first of all she already has her husband and daughter doing her work for her, is that what will happen if she gets elected? And she is not for the economy, she can hardly care less about you and me. Let me tell you, I lost my factory job after 18 years when the place shut down, yeah in 1998. Who was President at the time? I rest my case.

Anonymous said...

Clinton lost the nomination in February. It is all over but the shouting. We had three great candidates, but this one needs to be put to bed. As Leahy said, she has the right to continue her campaign, but not any really good reasons to continue. At least none that have "Democratic President" as its ultimate goal.

DJShay said...

On what planet does someone down 160 plus delegates and 700,000 popular votes win the nomination? Pennsylvania is not the ONLY contest. It's one state of 50. I guess we here in North Carolina don't count since Obama is leading by double digits.

Anonymous said...

This one is all over but the shouting. Hillary may win PA, as she won in Ohio, but that is not "momentum", that is expected.

SNIPER FIRE!!

Momentum indeed.

Anonymous said...

Grass roots organizing can be messy business. There is no excuse for what you experienced; but probably many reasons. I hope your negative experiences with the Obama campaign motivates you to volunteer and help them do it right.

I am in West Philly and I have a list of complaints about our neighborhood office. But when I saw a sign up sheet asking for people to cook for them (many of the staff are out of town volunteers and have little access to home cooked meals) I began to have alot of compassion for them and more patience for the multiple ways things could be more organized.

Anonymous said...

Wow! Someone got an "F" in Math. By ALL reasonable scenarios, Clinton will be down in delegates, contests, and the popular vote when all is said and done in June. Why, again, would the super delegates vote for her? Oh yeah, I forgot, they want to send all of Obama's people to McCain. Great strategy! That'll happen. Not.

The supers are just waiting for Billary to finish up the contests so they can back Obama. It will all be over soon. Only in people's fantasies is Hillary on any kind of ticket in the fall.
Learn to count - it'll make you feel smarter!

Anonymous said...

Also,

Please excuse the many zealous and enthusiastic Obama supports who can be downright insulting with their zeal.

I am convinced they really mean well. But the don't represent the core of the Obama lead movement.

Anonymous said...

To Bernie O'Hare:

Lets examine your arguments, shall we?

You said: "Fact: Obama has not one any of the big states outside of his home state, Illinois."

Actually, he won Illinois, Georgia, Texas (check delegate count -- which is the only thing that matters), Missouri...oh you mean, population wise? Sure, Clinton won solid blue states such as Massachusetts, New York, California. Are you saying that Obama won't win those in the general if he's elected?

You said: Fact: Clinton has the superdelegates locked up. If every uncommitted superdelegate comes down for Obama, she still wins here in Pa. (Nationally, she has the lead and the uncommitted DNC delegates will likely go her way.)

Clinton NOR Obama have their Superdelegates "locked up" since they're free to come and go as much as they want. In fact, a few of Clinton Supers have moved back to the "Uncommitted" columm until the primary is over. I can't answer your last two sentences because I couldn't decipher what you were trying to say...maybe you may try to write more clearly.

You Said: Fact: Clinton is way ahead here in Pa.

Yes, she was "way ahead" two weeks ago. I think she was leading 54-32. However, that lead has shrunk to 12 points in one poll and 5 points in another. And there are still three weeks left before the primary.

You Said: By writing off Pa, Obama has allowed momentum to Swing in Hillary's direction in yet another big state. By the time of the convention, a majority of Dems will support her candidacy. And like you say, it's a question of math. She will have the most delegates. Those uncommitted superdelegates in the DNC, which way do you think they'll be going? There's about 150 of them.

I don't think that Obama is ignoring PA, I just don't think he's playing Clinton's games. Obviously, Clinton wanted to make PA her firewall but Obama instead decided to continue with his stratey of running a "50 State" strategy instead of cherry picking states like the Clintons have done. By the way, Clinton had the momentum after her wins in Ohio and Rhode Island and even before that...in fact, Clinton has always had a lead in the polls in PA.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the report. This is a bit troubling. I was at the Wynnewood headquarters near Philly last weekend, and they seem pretty organized there. Not only are they organized, but they are in tune with the local population. There's a heavy Jewish population there, so they are making a point of distributing information relevant to the Jewish community. They have a pretty good game going there...I guess some offices are better organized than others. But I certainly don't think Obama is writing off the state by any means. He's been there for the past 5 days, and they've been bringing in volunteers to do voter registration and canvassing since the day after Ohio, if not earlier.

Anonymous said...

Scott @ 10:06 AM

"the government can solve your problems then you are a Democrat."

WE ARE the government -- WE are the deciders.

my 2 cents

-Peggy / SC

Anonymous said...

Ok, first, Hillary has written off PA? That's patently absurd. She's been all over the state for weeks and will continue to do so. As for Bosnia, yeah, she screwed up a bit, but if you watch the entire footage you will see it was dangerous. But really who cares about that? What's more interesting about the footage is that it describes her as having made a commitment to the troops that she would visit them, and she kept that promise. She did it at a time when the intervention was still controversial. She wanted to assure them that americans were with them, I'd say that's a pretty good story. Hillary is the ONLY person I trust to end the war because it is not going to be pretty. There will be really ugly days, but Hillary is one of the few politicians on the planet without the obsessive need to be loved, so she will see those hard days through, and ultimately that is best for us, and best for the Iraqi's. She's also the only candidate that wants to end the mercenaries, which in the long term are a great danger to democracy. Why don't you go to a Hillary townhall? Ask some questions. See what she has to say. As for Obama, he has lied repeatedly about Reverend Wright. His latest whopper was to tell the View the man apologized for his hate speech. He's done no such thing. Obama is a fine person, but he really doesn't have the resume to be President. In MA, we elected the Axelrod hope/change campaign, and while I really like Mr.Patrick he has been a very ineffective leader. Probably explains why Obama lost here by 15 points, despite the support of the Governor, and our two Senators. Experience essentially does matter. This stuff about the Clinton machine is overstated and a bit silly. Listen to the policies of both candidates, how they plan to move the country forward, what issues are important to you, and then make your decision. It's that easy.

Bernie O'Hare said...

On what planet does someone down 160 plus delegates and 700,000 popular votes win the nomination?

Sure, Hillary is down, but she's by no means out. Right now, Obama simply does not have the numbers to win on his own. That is reality right here on Planet Earth.

What Obama appears to be doing right now is running for president in the general election. His campaign has assumed the primary is over. My view is that this is the mistake that will cost him the nomination.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Wow! Someone got an "F" in Math.

Take out your calculator and add 'em up. Obama does not have enough delegates to secure the nomination and Hillary Clinton is out there. Obama has stopped running a primary campaign, and his organization has floundered here in Pa. I stand by my prediction, but thank you for your views.

ERic said...

As with all candidates, I expect the Obama campaign is well organized where people support him. Not terribly surprising. In my equal-to-yours non-expert opinion, the reason your not seeing Obama organization is because you're in a Clinton stronghold.

Every campaign focuses on where they need to, and make decisions on how to spend their money and energy, even ones with as much money as Obama.

Here in Austin, and in a lot of Texas, there was a lot of Obama campaign work done to prepare people for the precinct caucus process -- something that Obama's group excels at. From what I heard, the Clinton camp did next to nothing.

It seems to me that you're basing your opinion on your one experience. You can certainly do that. We all do.

But it seems to me that there's quite a bit of evidence that the Obama campaign is pretty well run. It must be, to be running ahead of Clinton.

There are reasons for some of us to be harsh with Hillary. Bad memory aside (and I've been semi-defending her on that one -- memory is fallible, though few people seem to accept that), down here in Texas in our county caucuses, there were cases of Clinton supporters doing their best to toss out all the Obama delegates.

The bizarreness of our system aside, both candidates are fighting in the same system, so to bitch about part of it when you discover you aren't very good at it is childish. Yeah, they're candidates, and they both try to get advantages however they can, but I haven't yet once see Obama complain that primaries are unfair. Oh, wait, is that because he's won some of those?

OK, maybe I should stop, as I'm starting to get snide.

I just find it odd that you can pick out a national trend based on your singular experience with the Obama campaign, when all the math says clearly otherwise.

In every single state, Obama has improved. Most early state polls have had him behind, but he has improved everywhere as he campaigns. He hasn't won every time, but even in New Hampshire, he came close.

After Texas and Ohio, he was 20 points behind Clinton in Pennsylvania. He is currently somewhere around 10 points behind.

Yes, he'll probably lose Pennsylvania. But then he will win North Carolina easily (which has nearly as many delegates as Pennsylvania), and..., well, we'll see with Indiana.

In many ways, I think that will settle things. Meaning that if he wins Indiana, Hillary will have to concede. If he doesn't, then I expect this damn thing will indeed drag on to the national convention.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Must Have Been the Roses,

I appreciate your insight. Although I like Obama, I am now beginning to question his campaign. As far as volunteering is concerned, my main job and blogging keep me pretty damn busy, and I am usually the kiss of death to a candidate.

Anonymous said...

While in some mathematics classes it is compulsory to show all work leading to the solution, that's not the case in Democrat Party politics.

Neither candidate will have secured enough delegates before the convention. Super delegates will ultimately decide it. They may change their pledge at any time, using any rationale, prior to the convention floor vote.

Hillary will have tremendous momentum coming out of PA, where she has a tremendous lead. She will have likely won the majority of popular votes by convention time.

It's a mess. McCain wins, inexplicably.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Purple State Pundit,

I'm glad to hear that things are going so well down in Wynnewood. Up here in the LV, it's a much different story. During last night's speech, Obama apparently only recognized two local leaders among the dozens who attended. I don't fault him for that insult, but I do fault his staff. Unable to get a ticket myself, I don't know this first hand. But I heard it from a reporter who gets paid to notice that sort of thing.

I believe Obama is making the mistake of taking his opposition far too lightly, and for that reason, Pa. is where he will lose this race.

DJShay said...

I understand your frustration, but you have to understand that there is more than just PA at stake in the next month or so. Obama has never been expected to win there and I think his strategy is just to keep the loss to a better than expected margin. Hillary alread had an established base/machine there, so it was a lot easier for her to organize her teams with an existing structure. Obama went in starting from scratch. I also seem to remember Clinton forgetting about Iowa, then Wisonsin. You think the people there weren't just a little ticked off and they felt the same way you do? But the thing about your post that kind of bugs me is that your post comes across like PA is the center of the campaign universe. His organization in North Carolina has been outstanding and your experience is not indicative of the campaign as a whole. No campaign is 100% in all states.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bernie, just want you to know there's people out here in Obamaland who are listening, share your concerns, and are taking note of your observations on PA organization. Grassroots volunteers are absolutely wonderful to work with but quite often its like herding cats. When you lack anchor support from local politicians this can often exacerbate the problem.

My experience volunteering for Obama in Milwaukee Wisconsin was wonderful... except for the weather. They were well organized and had some veterans who help organize for the Governor out there running the offices.

By the way, I wouldn't be too quick to put Indiana in the Clinton column. While it may not be in the tank for Obama like North Carolina, the state itself has strong ties to Illinois, more so than any other.

Anonymous said...

Bernie, I still do not understand why the Obama campaign fought to have a revote in MI and FL. You can argue the early vote/rules thing until the cows come home but that does not deny the fact that million of voters came out to vote and even more are willing to vote again if given the chance. The majority of Dems want a revote. Obama said he would only accept an even split of delegates. That not only disenfranchises MI and FL voters, it disenfranchises the entire Country.

Secondly, it should also be noted that the two MI Senators that smothered the attempt for the MI Senate to take you the revote issue are Barack Obama campaign co-chairs (Tupac Hunter and Buzz Thomas). This is voter suppression.

Finally, Obama campaign staff/supporters called for Hillary to get out of the race despite the close race, Meanwhile, Obama is telling Hillary to stay in. This appears that Obama is having his people do his dirty while he portrays himself as the candidate of change.

The action of the Obama campaign is not what I would consider empowerment of the people.

Anonymous said...

No one 'misremembers'being under combat fire. What a crock. Actually I think on the whole Clinton would be a better President than Obama. Outsiders once in power tend to do poorly because they don't understand the system they railed against. We can see that locally. But her lack of honesty is intrenched so deeply, I have reservations. We all remeber or forget things at times in different ways. Hell, O'Hare has the most subjective memory of anyone I know. I think she is an institutional liar. as good as President Clinton was, so was he. I think afer 16 years we may need something new.
I donot buy Armstrongs nonsense, that is right out of the Faux News playbook. How silly.
So in the end who knows. I don't thats for sure. But I have learned as a lifelong Dem, no one is as good at snatching defeat from the jaws of Victory like the Democrats. Look at the goof we put up agains a vulnerable Dent. But then again at least we have some integrity.

Anonymous said...

Peggy,

That is a lovely notion but the truth is bureaucrats are the government. We only elect the leaders who appoint the directors.

Scott Armstrong

Anonymous said...

As for Bosnia, yeah, she screwed up a bit, but if you watch the entire footage you will see it was dangerous. But really who cares about that?

Who cares about that? Well, considering I was pretty much undecided and now am 100% sure I will be voting for Obama, I'd say at least one person.

Fabricating a sniper fire story? No thanks. It became crystal clear to me that HC is an opportunist. I could not in good conscience pick her to be President.

We had a candidate last time that actually DID come under fire. He was still made out to be an elitist windsurfer.

Anonymous said...

But the thing about your post that kind of bugs me is that your post comes across like PA is the center of the campaign universe.

158 delegates.

21 electoral votes.

Right now, it IS the center of the universe. In 2000 and 2004, PA went to the Democrats by the thinnest of margins. Imagine if the Democratic candidate LOSES PA in the general. Do you actually think the candidate would win the Presidency?

Anonymous said...

BOH, word has it that the Obama people heard that your middle name is loathsome.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:33

You are basing your vote on a mis-statement from and event that occurred in 1996. Albeit, there was not evasive action because of snipper fire while walking across the tarmac, however all on that trip agree that during landing evasive approach was taken to avoid sniper fire. This was stated by the pilot on approach. So at best an embellishment or misstatement of the event (evasive action was in the air, not on the tarmac). None-the-less it was a Hillary flap.

NOW, how in the world could Obama overstate, misstate or mislead voters about being an event that happened days earlier. Obama falsely claims authorship to housing bill

On March 13, Dodd, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, unveiled legislative proposals to allow the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee new loans from banks willing to help homeowners in or approaching foreclosure. On March 17th Obama took top billing on Dodd's proposal.

Even Chris Dodd did said that Obama supported the bill, as does Clinton. But Dodd, who supports Obama could not offer pride of authorship to Obama.

This is one example. Obama has also claimed ownership on ethics reform bill that others authored. That is real ethical isn’t it?

Anonymous said...

I must say,that be it Hillary or Obama, will destroy Mccain in the election. McCain has fallen asleep while the dems are still battleing. McCain should be out there on the stump every day staying in the news, but he isn't. McCain's momentum now is lacking and once it is gone it may never come back. Hillary just means Bill back in office and Obama keeps saying change change change but he hasent said change to what or how he will get it done. McCain hasn't done any speaches that are about issues either...they change from location to location just like Hillary and Obama have done. I don't like any of them. I used to like Obama before the Wright scandal came out. And now I listen to him closely and , in fact, he actually says nothing except change but he says it in a wonderful speaking voice. He never says what the changes will be or change to what. As for Iraq, he did mention change, now he says end the war in Iraq(which he has said all along) but now he said he will end it in Iraq and start in Afganastan. Thats change right?

karl said...

Bernie:

I make no bones about it, as a kool-aid drinking Obama supporter I have little doubt he will be the next dem nominee for president and likely the next POTUS. The delegate math is all his with a 160+ pledged delegate edge & a 130+ total delegate count. The General Election atmosphere, economy in the dumps & a war that has created to many American war widows, heavily favors the D's.

I would also disagree with the other premise of your post. Barrack's efforts in the valley (outside of Mr. Lauritzen & a few others) is typical of that of other Dems in the valley. Dems in the Valley have historically been disorganized, when we have won we have disproportionately done so despite ourselves. Example one, the 15th Congressional. Example two the Goldsmith/Mittman junta in Easton. Example three (although I have to admit he is very charismatic) Ron Angle.

Finaly, if you want to contact team Obama you might want to try & contact Obama's point person in Easton, Larry Lauritzen. Larry is not only very easy to get, he is regularly reaching out to locals here in Easton & seems to be doing a better job organizing than I have seen in a long, long time, at least here in the Valley.

karl said...

Note to self:

If you plan on posting anonymous make sure you are logged out of you Blogger/Google account and/or check the anonymous button.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Karl, Don't worry. I won't report you. And I'll reach out to Larry Lauritzen tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I had an opposite experience, when I was interested in working for Obama in Feb. I went to a standing room only meeting in bethlehem. I was so impressed at the cross-sectin of our community, old, young, students, professionals, all races and colors. Every event my family has attended has been packed, the enthusiasm is contagious. Do you check the Barack the Valley website forums? I am bombarded with local emails requesting help with various activities.
An Obama Mama

Anonymous said...

Bar Johnston is just a volunteer like the rest of us. She has been outrageously busy trying to help people get plugged into the campaign. It's very easy to project expectations onto people. But until you give 80 hours per week for a cause you believe in, with no pay, you can not understand how hectic things get. Of course, the reward will come when Obama wins the Dem nod. Part of grassroots organizing is working together and picking up the slack for each other. Rather than judging volunteers who have worked very hard to form this group, join in and help. I hear that you are busy. So I am I. So are all of the other people who have put their lives on hold. My kids miss me, my husband's a little put out. But we all know this is for a good cause. And the last thing we do is judge others who are making a contribution.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I'm not quite as enchanted by Obama as you. I like the dude, but not that much. But let me ask you a question. How the hell are you helping this guy when you ignore a local blogger, a reporter and a locally elected official? I remain unimpressed. Ron Paul had a lot of committed volunteers, too.