USA TODAY is reporting that a post-debate poll of 500 likely voters gives Kamala Harris a 49-46% lead in Pa, including a 50-45% lead in NorCo,
I question the accuracy of polling Trump elections because historically, he performs better than projected. It's unclear to me whether his actual support is now being gauged accurately. In past polling, many of his supporters have refused to participate.
71 comments:
God help America if Harris wins..
I typically don't believe the polls. But I do believe Trump's gig is up. The schtick is stale. The temper tantrums, the going off script, the name calling, the "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT", the behavior of a child. Kamala/Walz is a breath of fresh air.
Kamala refuses to tell us how she is going to change America But some people will still vote for that type of so-called leader.
I just don't understand why she won't hold a regular press conference for all to see. If she is what she is saying she would do well to do this. If she isn't what she says we all would see it. Why isn't the press pushing this?
11:01, I'm inclined to believe that Harris leads among all women and Trump leads among white males, but am uncertain whether the poll is accurate or whether Trump will lose Pa. I think odds still favor him.
Note the poll has a margin of error of 4.4% which means there is a 95% confidence that Harris falls between 45 to 53 % while Trump falls between 42 to 50%. The difference is within the margin of error and the poll should be rejected being meaningless. I refuse to answer polling questions. Don’t trust the identity of the caller and fear that my house will be burned down if they don’t like my answer. A poll has to demonstrate a landslide to be acceptable. Otherwise I wouldn’t bet on it. Slot machines have better odds.
Supposedly she’s in Philly today to tout her support of fracking. Guess she has no idea where they do that either in PA (hint - it’s not Philly)
Philadelphia will provide enough votes to assure Kamala’s victory in Pa.
You have it backwards. Read project 2025. If you’re voting for Trump I hope you have a lot of money and your in good health.
USA Today (aka McPaper by business travelers who get it for free in hotels) is not a serious publication. They placed the second Trump assassination attempt in the lower corner, beneath the fold, as well. Few have ever taken their polls seriously. But here you are writing about it, as a clown seeking comfortable polls would. You be you, though. It's delicious.
D+4 and in the margin of error. Plus you lost me at USA today.
She’s up 5-7 in some polls. 8 in others. She has it in the bag.
She will surpass Biden’s vote total in Philly, just like Biden surpassed Obama’s vote total in Philly.
If Pa is now the most crucial swing state in this country, take comfort in knowing it is Philadelphians who will install our next President.
Philly! That’s where we’re at. This is what America has come to.
If Harris is elected, she will be a leader who tries to unite people by recognizing our commonalities and respecting truthful opinions. Trump, by way of contrast, tries to divide us from each other, and to that end, offers nothing but lies.
For one obvious example, Trump continues to spread the lie that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio.
Oh, so you're saying that Harris could be ahead 53-42. Good to know.
So many people are so stupid Harris will make Biden look Good
That's not policy statement. How is she going to do that. By what policy changes
As it was in 1776, it is so again in 2024! Let Freedom and Liberty ring America, Home of the Free!
It's not over u til the vote. Don't let the press or pills tell you otherwise. Vote
I'm not a big believer in polls, not that they are inaccurate, just that poll takers may not be really reaching voters, and many voters just don't answer polls. But now Trumpers have a new way to give The Donald their money-- Bitcoin! You can invest in the true grifters by buying Trump's new bitcoin. Think of it as Trump's own direct line that takes your money, and makes it his money. Baron is helping this time too. Kind of like a kid with a paper route. This will be big, bigger than Truth Social, bigger than Trump International Hotel in Washington. Just more grift from a family that found a way to get taxpayers to pay for their lavish life.
You could visit her website for specifics, but you won't.
It’s estimated that Trump has lost 30-40% of his personal wealth over the past 7-8 years.
Elaborate on your assertion that he is a grifter lining his own pockets with taxpayer money to pay for his lavish lifestyle.
Are you actually referring to the Clintons, Gores, Obama’s, and Biden’s?
You’d be spot on in that case.
I LOVE KAMALA HARRIS!
First, for everyone wanting policy specifics out of Trump...uh... where are Trump's specifics??? All you get from him is "we'll fix inflation, we'll fix health care" and there's no specific. I am not in the bag for Harris, but right now she seems a lot saner than "Mr. They are Eating the Dogs."
12:44 try watching something other than CNN. Trump has nothing to do with project 2025 He is not going to cut Social Security in fact he wants to stop taxing SS. That in itself is a big deal for all of us on SS. Harris has given you nothing but salad dressing and no real plan. She was fact checked after the debate and she lied 31 times. She has no clue. You could hate Trump as a person but for our sake he is the one who will get America back to being respected in the world.
Philadelphia has enough votes to elect Harris The rest state will look like Philadelphia and maybe the crime rate will go to higher levels.
All?
Don't fret, the sun will come up the day after the inauguration and the day after that. Are either of these two good for America?. I'm not so sure. The B team bureaucrats will see us through. We will pay for our choice either way in a few years. Like anything in government, the impact of our decision in November will play out over the next decade.
My thought is our primary elections need an enema.
Will they have the Black Panthers out there with clubs on Election Day. I miss those guys.
The RCP polling average actually has Trump up in PA by .02%. Insider Advantage had a poll out today with Trump up 2% in PA. The USA polling has a high margin of error of 4.4%. I think Harris probably has a slight advantage at this point. Perhaps Sundays assassination attempt will stop the bleeding for Trump after his abysmal debate performance. I can’t stand either one of them but I enjoy the analytics.
She will try to do that by the policy and example of restoring truthful discourse. The torrent of lies that Trump unleashes fosters division. His unfounded fear-mongering is toxic to democracy. There is overwhelming evidence that this is his intention. Look no further than Jan 6, 2021, although there is much more.
It’s actually a margin of errors of 4.4% which strikes me as a little high. The two polls of Erie and Northampton County have margins of error of 5.7%. I’d give her a slight edge at this point. She definitely got a bump out of the debate. Will it stick, who knows.
The only thing she is missing is tears in her eyes.
We all are tired of her laugh so maybe she should have a tear or two
GO TRUMP
But you’re a big fat pig lol.
You have a woman who has done nothing, never got a single vote..is in the current administration that is a dumpster fire for this country and a VP who believes in tampons for boys and touts China as one of his favorite places to be...yeah this sounds like a great plan for all of us...God help us all if they get elected and they probably will. We will be in world war 3, criminal migrants will take over and we will all be fighting for a loaf of bread...but hey, the trans people will get their way, the migrants will get free houses and money and Ukraine will keep taking in billions of our money...oh yeah, get popcorn if you can afford it, hold on this is gonna be a great ride!!
Trump has nothing to do with project 2025, let me ask you, what did he and his administration do to you and take away the last time he was President?
This Project 2025 stuff is hilarious. There’s always a boogeyman for the left. The Heritage Foundation prepared this document. If the Center For American Progress prepared a document it would have:
Medicare for all elimination of private health insurance.
Taxing unrealized gains.
Reparations.
Price controls.
Eliminating the filibuster.
Packing the Supreme Court.
Extreme restrictions on gun ownership.
Just about everything Harris has flipped on.
They’re just not dumb enough to put it in a document before an election like Heritage did lol.
Most of all this stuff requires congressional approval so it’s all pie in the sky dreaming.
Go to his site. It's all clearly outlined. And yes I've been to Harris site. Says nothing
Even CNN did an article on how she lied and took things out of context!
You're cuckoo for cocoa puffs.
Doubtful. Driving around the LV, Trump signs are displayed at a 3 to 1 ratio to Harris signs.
Exactly. Unprecedented pandering from both. Horrible choices. Open the primaries to independents.
A great ride for who? For exposed racist that have been shunned by family members because of extremely fascist views, and who will still vote against their own interest for a narcissistic dictator? You're right, life will be rough for you after November making up excuses for why you voted for Trump. The amount of irrational fear and phobia in your short paragraph let's me know how much of a scared little boy you are toward people who don't look like you.
What flavor is your Kool-Aid?
@1:08pm
https://www.youtube.com/live/VL4JXoFcJQI?si=TiDLELWdFU0Txm90
Biden and Harris were supposed to unite the country, all they did was make us poorer
The press won’t push it because they know she has no plan or policy of substance
He's losing, and he's going to lose. Prepare yourself emotionally now for the impending sense of emptiness and low self-worth. MAGA is a minority movement without a future. The policies it pushes are not popular.
That’s because all the people in Philly want all the free handouts the democrats keep giving
Yeah, like social security and medicare. Glad to see you Rs admit it.
In this amalgamation of all PA polls, the blue team has been ahead for months. Harris, Casey and Wild are all likely to win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
This has been educational reading opinions. It's also shown me that no one is changing their minds. I had hoped to read something of substance to change minds or understand the others point of view. However. It is clear that has not happened. I need to stop reading as it is simply frustrating reading why people chose one or the other candidate. A few write rationale reasons but most are not based in factual information. Thus. I'm out and just pray for everyone to see what's happening and vote with knowledge of the issues at stake.
Sign tallies are somewhat irrelevant, considering Harris/Walz just got in the race. Find me ONE poll that shows Trump winning. Lol. You might have TDS (Trump Devotion Syndrome)
I go with the RCP polling average which has been more accurate than 538 over the last two cycles. I think you’re correct though, Harris is going to win and most likely drag Wild over the finish line.
@6:43
Seriously, think about what you posted and realize that most people in the Lehigh valley would vote for a potato chip rather than Trump, but they don’t want to be harassed and heckled by Trump supporting Neanderthals at every turn, so it’s no surprise that they don’t advertise their support. But just know in your cold little fascist heart, that they’re out there. And that they’re voting for Kamala, NOT Trump.
@9:09
Bernie, no further proof of their cognitive dissonance is needed when the collective bunch of law enforcement officers, with their posh pensions and full Medicare benefits, vote for republicans who are against all those “entitlement” programs.
Do they actually think republicans gave them that? Haha
NO, you can thank a democrat for that.
vote for Harris is a vote for Putin
No way. I just out an Our Savior Of FATima fountain outside our house here in the Slate Belt.
Quinnipiac has Harris up 5 in PA. Then I looked at Quinnipiacs historical performance. Its last poll before the election in 20 had Biden up 7 in PA. He won by 1.7%. In 2016 its last poll before the election had Hillary up 6 and Trump won PA. So I’m very skeptical of Quinnipiac polling. They are usually pro democrat by 6 points it seems so I’m not getting to excited.
Holy shit Teamsters poll, 60% of their members support Trump. Teamsters are now declining to support a candidate.
The column written by this Democrat fund raiser describes perfectly why many of us Blue Collar folks have left the Democrat party. I’m not thrilled with Republicans either, but the democrats have lost their way. Bernie I think you would find it interesting.
https://www.newsweek.com/i-raised-millions-democrats-dnc-i-realized-theyre-party-rich-opinion-1955377
4:41, I'll agree that both parties are funded by organizations whose agendas are starkly different from the needs of working families. That is borne out by a Princeton study of what Congress actually does, which usually has no correlation to public opinion. There are rebuttals of this study, but it is worrying. https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-study
Teamsters won't endorse her as membership overwhelmingly supports Trump. Western PA fracking labor viscerally hates her. And now we know how much. Ken Kraft never really represented his membership. He just took their dues.
It says: “So, I grew up a middle class kid ………..”. It’s a canned statement. She’s ahead and the strategy is to rope a dope her over the finish line.
THIS is cognitive dissonance. Think about this, WHO has historically fought for labor rights? WHO fought for the organization of Unions? WHO is currently fighting corporate greed and higher wages? YOU can thank a democrat and liberal policies for that. But just like in religion, the teamsters have been indoctrinated into a cult and it’s sad to see. Once again, you have the working class voting against their own interests.
If it was up to republicans, they’d pay you a dollar an hour.
So many people are brainwashed- Trump has nothing ro do with project 2025, but it polls we'll, so Dems push it.
Democrats are the party of the rich. They started losing working people with Bill Clinton’s NAFTA. Now they have become condescending know it all assholes that call people stupid, just like you just did. They just want to tell people what to eat, wear, what kind of car to drive, what kind of house to live in. They never do what they lecture everyone else to do because they’re the biggest hypocrites on the planet.
But hey, I grew up in a middle class household……….blah blah blah
I don't know how many times I have to post this Wikipedia link. At this point not sure why Bernie doesn't mark comments like this as dis/mis information. He became poorer and my favorite part below. This proves democrats don't know anything. This took a 30 second google search
In March 2016, Forbes estimated his net worth at $4.5 billion. A year later, shortly after his inauguration, they lowered it by $1 billion, and by the end of his presidential term, they had subtracted yet another $1 billion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_of_Donald_Trump#:~:text=In%20March%202016%2C%20Forbes%20estimated,subtracted%20yet%20another%20%241%20billion.
"Through the ups and downs, one thing remains consistent: He gains the trust of people who don’t analyze him too closely, then cashes in. Just ask the lenders he never repaid. Or the casino shareholders who watched him pilfer a publicly traded company for cash, then steer it into bankruptcy—twice. Or the condo buyers who lost fortunes on flashy units in his Chicago tower while he siphoned millions in management fees. When Trump fails, he doesn’t give up—he just finds a new pitch, and often a new audience. In politics, he has developed an enormous group of followers, the most hardcore of whom are more loyal than any of his previous customers, eagerly buying whatever the former president offers, at almost any price he’s willing to sell." https://www.forbes.com.au/news/billionaires/how-donald-trump-made-billions-from-politics/
I agree it started with NAFTA. When democrats really starting losing us blue collar folks was during the Obama years. Our wages stagnated. Our health insurance premiums skyrocketed. When we complained we were basically told to shut the fuck up you have white privilege. At work we all started talking about how the D party left us for the rich elite and the non working class. Then Trump came down the escalator. He listened. Gave us a voice. Sure he's a loud mouth that says outrageous things, but people who make the country run, the truck drivers, mechanics, construction people, and factory workers finally realized that democrats have taken us for granted for far too long!
A whole slew of polling came out today. I got no dog in this fight because I can’t stand either one of them. I thought Harris was ahead but now this is a dead heat. No doubt about it her bounce from the debate is gone.
What now democrats think being religious is a cult,????
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