Monday, June 28, 2021

Zero

According to CovidAlertPa, established by the state Department of Health, there were zero new cases of Covid on Sunday in Northampton, Lehigh and Carbon Counties. Monroe reported two, Berks had eight and Bucks had just one. These are the lowest figures I've seen since the state (and counties) began tracking the pandemic. While it's premature to declare victory, we certainly are headed in that direction. 

How many of these new cases are from the vaccinated. Strangely, Pennsylvania fails to track this important data point. According to the Inky, Covid among the vaccinated is tracked in New Jersey, Delaware and Philadelphia. Only two percent  of new Covid-19 cases are among those who've been vaccinated. This means the vaccines approved for emergency use have a combined efficacy rate of 98%.  

23 comments:

Doc Rock said...

"Only two percent of new Covid-19 cases are among those who've been vaccinated. This means the vaccines approved for emergency use have a combined efficacy rate of 98%."

Uh, no. That's not a correct conclusion. The efficacy rate is the percentage of the fully-vaccinated who do not subsequently contract COVID.

Based on the current low number of new infections overall, the percentage of the fully-vaccinated who have subsequently been infected is minuscule. Probably a fraction of one percent. So far.

However, the efficacy rate is time-dependent. That is, we won't know the "true" efficacy of the vaccines until we know how long it takes before the vaccine has worn off and a re-vaccination needs to occur. 6 months? A year?

Anonymous said...

John Prine....In Spite of Ourselves

Anonymous said...

Its a combination of vaccines AND people being outdoors. We saw a dip in cases last summer too. The real test will once again come this Oct/Nov when we're all forced back inside.

Anonymous said...

Operation Warp Speed!!!!!

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Uh, no. That's not a correct conclusion. The efficacy rate is the percentage of the fully-vaccinated who do not subsequently contract COVID."

I stand corrected. Sorry, Doc, I am a Democrat.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Operation Warp Speed!!!!!"

Without question, Trump should be given credit for the rapid development and approval of three excellent vaccines in record time. That's why the refusal among Rs to get this vaccine boggles my mind.

Anonymous said...

Doc Rock & Bernie -

I think you also have to have knowledge of how many of the unvaccinated contracted a serious case of Covid (enough to seek treatment and thus be reported), along with the total number of unvaccinated to come up with a correct rate.

I believe efficacy is dependent to the difference between what vaccinated and unvaccinated groups experience. So if only two percent of the vaccinated get a serious case of the virus, but also only two percent of the unvaccinated get a serious case of the virus, you don't get to 98% efficacy for a vaccine.


I think one of the great problems we've had during the pandemic has been censorship by the media (including social media) with the stated purpose of avoiding misinformation, along with selective transparency on the part of government.

What this has actually done is deprive us of information and prevented us from having discussions, disagreements and ultimately coming to a more accurate agreement on how to best fight the virus.

Anonymous said...

Bernie O'Hare said: "That's why the refusal among Rs to get this vaccine boggles my mind."


I'm not so sure that it's fair to imply that republicans are the largest group of unvaccinated Americans.

Surely there are people in both parties who value individual decision-making and are evaluating their own situations who are currently choosing not to get injected with an admittedly experimental vaccine. Maybe they are more Republican, maybe not.


What I have seen is data showing that large swaths of minorities are hesitant to get the vaccine, particularly African-Americans. I believe African-Americans tend to vote overwhelmingly democrat. President Biden even referred to this hesitancy last week with his incorrect comment about the Tuskegee Airmen.

While Biden wants to attribute that hesitancy to "racism" to further his divisive political agenda, some would argue it might have more to do with his Vice President telling people she wouldn't trust any vaccine developed under President Trump.

Ironically, she was doing this only a short time before getting the vaccine herself.

Doc Rock said...

"I stand corrected. Sorry, Doc, I am a Democrat."

Bernie, politics has nothing to do with correctly noting the efficacy rate.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Trump deserve some credit for the vaccines--but does anyone really doubt that there would've been plenty enough motivation to develop them under any other president?

Anonymous said...

All Operation Warp speed did for the development of the vaccines was pre-buy them regardless of whether they worked. Gave the approval and no harms barred option to throw something in a bottle with relative likelihood it would work and stick it in someone's arm.

Notice Trump took non of the vaccines that have been being given to the public.

Dennis P said...

My best man at my weddings wife died two days after taking the Covid ... It made her sick and she died.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Dennis, I am sorry to hear of the death of your best man's wife. I'd agree that the decision whether to get the vaccine is a personal one. I know people who are hesitant and I respect their concern, even though there decisions has an effect on all of us. With regard to your specific case, I would not hesitate to get the vaccine bc the evidence is overwhelming that the benefits far exceed the risks. Was this person vaccinated once or twice? How long after the vaccine did she develop Covid? Having received both doses, I can say I had no side effects other than a slightly sore arm and the need for a 20-minute nap.

The data show that, overwhelmingly, the vaccine is highly efficacious.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"I'm not so sure that it's fair to imply that republicans are the largest group of unvaccinated Americans."

I am implying nothing. I am asserting that Rs are vaccine hesitant. They should not be, but are. The GOP candidate for Exec calls it medical tyranny and has falsely claimed it alters DNA.

There have been several polls on this topic, and in one of the most recent, the number of unvaccinated Rs is at 49% compared to 29% for Ds.

Those whop claim they definitely will not get the vaccine are overwhelmingly white , Republican and younger.

The initial hesitancy among minorities appears to be diminishing as the vaccine has proved itself.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Notice Trump took non of the vaccines that have been being given to the public."

Incorrect. Both Trump and hios wife have received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-former-first-lady-quietly-received-covid-vaccine-january-n1259196

Bernie O'Hare said...

"I think you also have to have knowledge of how many of the unvaccinated contracted a serious case of Covid (enough to seek treatment and thus be reported), along with the total number of unvaccinated to come up with a correct rate."

Read the Inky article to which I've linked in my story. The number of vaccinated who get sick enough to require hospitalization is virtually none.

Anonymous said...

Bernie O'Hare said:

"Read the Inky article to which I've linked in my story. The number of vaccinated who get sick enough to require hospitalization is virtually none."


That's great but irrelevant in the context of the point I was making about calculating the efficacy rate.

If nobody gets hospitalized or dies in the region, that doesn't mean that the efficacy rate of the vaccine is 100%. There has to be a comparison to the rate of death/hospitalization for the unvaccinated, and it also involves a time element (as Doc Rock noted).

For the record, I'm not anti-vaccine, and fully recommend it for certain age groups. For others, I don't think I would.


BTW, there was nothing quiet about Trump and his wife receiving the vaccine. Nothing about it was hidden, but I suspect some outlets didn't cover it because it went against the narrative.

His choice to get vaccinated was likely unnecessary, since he would have had a natural immunity with the antibodies from when he actually had the virus.

Anonymous said...

He had covid. Has natural immunity. Recommend now not to get vaccination if had covid

Anonymous said...

try
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-28/vaccinated-attendees-west-hoxton-birthday-party-avoid-covid-19
"The highly contagious Delta strain of COVID-19 infected everyone who attended a Sydney birthday party except for the six people who were vaccinated, the NSW Government said."

Anonymous said...

5.07
"Recommend now not to get vaccination if had covid"
try
https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/trump-melania-received-covid-19-vaccine-january/
"Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19 last October and given an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment that he credited for his swift recovery. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory board has said people who received that treatment should wait at least 90 days to be vaccinated to avoid any potential interference."

Bernie O'Hare said...

Yeah, the anonymous "recommendation" from some right-wing lunatic is nonsense and irresponsible. Trump followed a real doctor's advice.

Let me add here that, again, I received an anonymous comment from someone who got vaccinated and is telling people to skip it. These folks are hypocrites.

Anonymous said...

Fuck it, don't get a vaccine, die!

Anonymous said...

Cleveland clinic research says prior covid gives immune response like vaccine. Not a right wing lunatic.