Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Covid-19 Cases Plunging in Lehigh Valley

According to the state Department of Health, there were only seven new cases of Covid-19 reported in Lehigh County on Tuesday. In Northampton County, there were just three, although the county GIS places the count at eight. Whether it's three or eight, it's still a precipitous drop from the record-high 448 new cases reported on January 29. More importantly, it appears to be a downward trend that has gone on for about the past month. 

Statewide, the positivity rate on Covid-19 has dipped to 3.9%, below the 5% threshold at which public health officials become concerned about community spread.  

Since we've begun tacking them, there have been 75,346 Covid-19 cases in the Lehigh Valley. (Lehigh - 39,644; Northampton - 35,702). This amounts to 11.11% of the combined population (677,963) of both counties. 

The disease infected over 10% of the population. 

Unfortunately, there have also been 1,564 Covid-19 deaths in the Lehigh Valley. (Lehigh - 853; Northampton - 711).  It has killed two per cent of those infected, but has only killed 0.23% of the combined population of both counties.

I decline to state why there has been a decline. That determination is above my paygrade. But for the first time in a year, things are looking up. 

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Save Gracedale!

Anonymous said...

Masks and lockdowns had little effect. Vaccine development and distribution was miraculously fast and they clearly work very well. We're kicking ass vs most of the rest of the world. Despite what media and our politicians want us to believe, we still are a remarkable country that achieves great things by working together. And now we help others. That's what we do.

Anonymous said...

Things were never really looking down.

As of now, the Census tells us there are 269,500,000 Americans under 65. CDC tells us that out of that 110K died. That's a ratio of 0.0004097217069, meaning a 99.96% chance of *not* dying of COVID for that demographic.

Moreover, we have 75,000,000 children (17 and under) with 275 COVID deaths. Over the same period we have about 150 school bus deaths.

There was never a scientific basis for the lockdown hoax as demonstrated by the fact that the lockdown states per capita morbidity and mortality numbers were nearly congruent with the Free States'.

Moving forward, injecting children with an experimental drug when their chance of dying of the disease it is intended to prevent is a statistical zero is nothing less than mass child abuse.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Masks and lockdowns had little effect. Vaccine development and distribution was miraculously fast and they clearly work very well."Z

I suspect the vaccine has a great deal to do with the sharp decline, but do not know that and neither do you. Nor do you have any idea how much worse things would have been without masks and social distancing. I provided the facts, not political opinions.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"There was never a scientific basis for the lockdown hoax as demonstrated by the fact that the lockdown states per capita morbidity and mortality numbers were nearly congruent with the Free States'."

I agree the lockdown as implemented was ineffective, but it certainly was no "hoax." Moreover, I reject your "free states" verbiage and consider that dangerous. Also, the sole study on the effect of the lockdown on Covid spread concludes that the reason there was no difference may very well be that the people in these so-called "free states" were already sheltering in place voluntarily.

Anonymous said...

If you think lockdowns and social distancing/masking were ineffective, tell that to the Brazilians who were "free". They're in another worse wave with hospitals at 150% capacity. With only 3% vaccinated.

Bernie O'Hare said...

"Moving forward, injecting children with an experimental drug when their chance of dying of the disease it is intended to prevent is a statistical zero is nothing less than mass child abuse."

Let's see. This disease infected more than 1 in 10 here in the Lehigh Valley. It killed two per cent of those infected. I know several people who were hospitalized with Covid. It is a very infectious virus and it can be deadly. We've all seen this. If public health officials recommend that children be inoculated, I am sure most parents will listen to them and not some anonymous asshole on a blog.

Anonymous said...

Thanks BO for pointing out the Bull. Commenter No 2&3, are you two Doctors or something? Otherwise, please start your stream of consciousness with "In my opinion" Now get back to your day job where hopefully you know what your talking about.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:08

For jeebus sake, can you PLEASE stop perpetuating disproven myths and fallacies about this pandemic already - it’s getting sooooo old. Everything from your miscalculation of mortality deaths where you incorrectly took the total death and divided by the population which is INCORRECT. You conveniently forgot to multiply THAT number by 100,000 to get a per capita death rate. And to attempt to tug at our heartstrings and say that we’re experimenting with our precious children with mRNA vaccines, I mean c’mon on. MRNA vaccines have been around for over a decade, but it’s typical for Americans to NOT know that because ya’ll more quicker to pick up a Sport Illustrated magazine than to pick up a medical journal. But “We’re the greatest country in da world!”, hogwash!

Anonymous said...

@ 8:08 am "Moreover, we have 75,000,000 children (17 and under) with 275 COVID deaths. Over the same period we have about 150 school bus deaths."

I checked your statistics. Try reading comprehension and do a correct comparison. There were not 150 children killed. The average is 19 per year. The number you used included occupants in other vehicles and pedestrians involved in a bus related accident.

Anonymous said...

"If you think lockdowns and social distancing/masking were ineffective, tell that to the Brazilians who were "free". They're in another worse wave with hospitals at 150% capacity. With only 3% vaccinated.

Ironically, this comment efficiently makes the point that masks and lockdowns are likely ineffective vs vaccines. Brazilians should have concentrated more on vaxxes and their distribution than the apparently false security of masks and lockdowns. Countries with more vax distribution (US, UK) are miles ahead of countries with slow vax rollouts. That's math, which is available for all to perform. I have no idea about the science. It would be nice of our leaders made the same frank admission.

Anonymous said...

Are public health officials wanting children vaxxed because their pharma donors want this? Remember that medicine is a consumer industry in the US. Or is it old folks selfishly crawling to herd immunity to save themselves from the old folks who won't be vaxxed enough to attain the threshold? Death rates among children are not even measurable. Why would any responsible adult stick that needle in a kid who is more likely to fly to Mars and back in a Mazda than get seriously ill or die from CoViD-19? Doctors used to recommend blood-letting and cigarettes. They're not infallible and medicine evolves. I'm vaxxed, but I think it's potential child abuse to unnecessarily inject kids with an experimental treatment for something that's not going to harm them. That's just crazy.

Anonymous said...

Are you really that stupid? There is one reason the numbers are dropping, because responsible people are getting vaccinated. It's not just magically disappearing like Trump said it was going to a year and a half ago. Don't be an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Who was POTUS when vaccines were developed and released? Trump is a douche. But the timeline is what the timeline is. If Trump said it would disappear, and he likely did because he said stupid things every minute, his actions quickly delivered effective vaccines. That's just the way it is. Even a broken clock ...

Anonymous said...

There are morons in this world plain and simple. People who read and view things the way they want to see them and are easily frightened about the unknown, willingly manipulated and duped by others.

"Masks & Lockdowns" while annoying, inconvenient and in some cases economically painful DID have the effect of limiting the spread of COVID. Just look at the common flu this past season - it was practically non-existent. Why? Because a majority of people were wearing masks, limiting travel and contact with others, hence a much less contagious virus than COVID was effectively blocked from spreading - the masks and lockdown worked. The whole point of masks and lockdowns was to buy time for the vaccine to be developed and distributed (which Trump should be rightfully credited for).

Our hospitals and medical system was severely stressed by COVID even with those measures in place. Idiots wishing and justifying that we could have just partied our way through the last 18 months are selfish, delicate little flowers who throw tantrums when they don't get participation trophies.

Anonymous said...

11:00 - Didn't realize public health officials ran for office. You should have just wrote "just follow the money" in all caps.
Children are vectors, you knob. That is why the best available information suggests getting our children vaccinated is a good thing. I'll take the medical communities advise over your opinion. If you actually spoke to some of those "pharma donors" you would learn what goes into FDA approval of a vaccine. Then again Pharma is bad until they develop a treatment for you or someone dear to you that's terminal. Let's boycott the bastards!

Anonymous said...

"And to attempt to tug at our heartstrings and say that we’re experimenting with our precious children with mRNA vaccines, I mean c’mon on. MRNA vaccines have been around for over a decade, but it’s typical for Americans to NOT know that because ya’ll more quicker to pick up a Sport Illustrated magazine than to pick up a medical journal. But “We’re the greatest country in da world!”, hogwash!"

That's an extremely deceptive comment. MRNA vaccines have "been around for over a decade" only in the sense that the technology has existed. It has never been used on the general human population before this COVID-19 vaccine rollout. If a technology has never been used outside of a laboratory and gets emergency approval by the FDA for COVID, it is dishonest to state that this type of vaccine has been around for over a decade. Would you say the same about self-driving cars? The technology has existed for over a decade, but has never been rolled out on the streets. Be honest and don't distort the facts with imprecise and deceptive language.

Anonymous said...

It was all Trumps fault--Biden will fix the whole country up

Anonymous said...

Let's get the timeline down. The pandemic hit hard in March 2020. We were urged to wear masks and lockdown, for lack of a better word. What other choices were there until a vaccine was refined and in place? Better to do something, than nothing. I am over 60 working at a university. Unlike Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the doofus who suggested the elderly should be willing to die for the economy (he is 69), I was and am not yet ready to leave this world to a virus if I can do something. I know...selfish me.

And, those concerned about the speed of the vaccine, remember COVID is a coronavirus related to SARS and MERS. Vaccines were already in place and only needed tweaking. For anti-vaxxers...I remember my parents taking me to a fire hall in the mid 60's to get the Sabin polio vaccine, even though I already had Salk. Think about how polio, a debilitating disease, was virtually eradicated in a generation because parents cared enough about their children and trusted science. Unfortunately, I think this is a different beast...less like polio and more like the flu. So, we better come to grips with vaccination.

Anonymous said...

The faux Trump scientist only talks about deaths. There are many people who survived Covid but have lingering debilitating health issues. Please stop injecting your Kooky politics into public health.

Anonymous said...

What is the nationally acclaimed assurances from the notorious Mr. Ed's circle jerk saying about these numbers?

Anonymous said...

People argue about deaths and Covid while the government, the politicians, and the news all screwed with data to make and justify their own agenda and get the idiotic American public to show their own personal gullible stupidity.

In 2017 there were 2,813,503 deaths.
In 2018 there were 2,839,205 deaths.
In 2019 there were 2,854,838 deaths.
In 2020 there were 3,358,814 deaths.

Over the four year period there were incremental increases in deaths year on year and then there was a 500,00o death increase. And yet only 269,000 are blamed on Covid. So all of a sudden there was a surge in deaths by 230,000 for the same cause that year on year showed previously increases of 26k, and 15k year on year. Even the first 3 months of 2020 remained at parallels rates as the preceding years. The surging jump for the balance of 2020 in deaths' does not just occur. Does it make sense that there was a change of that magnitude without any catalyst? Whether you believe COVID was to blame during the last nine month of 2020 there was a 230,00 mysterious increase in deaths that everyone has swept under the carpet and not acknowledged. DEAD IS DEAD and whether the birth certificate stated the cause of death as COVID or not it had some sort of impact overall. Definitions like causes of death are like statistics and are open to interpretation of application while being capitalized on by manipulators. So there was a 500,000 increase in deaths in 9 months of 2020 while only 269,000 are blamed on COVID you decide how to explain the other 230,000.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Your comment is strewn with misinformation. It is the same nonsense spewed by Steve Lynch at the tea party. I have written about this before. https://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2021/04/steve-lynch-messenger-of-misinformation.html

Based on information from the CDC, I can state the following:

1) In 2020, there were 3.3 million deaths in the US. That number could increase slightly as more data trickle in.

2) In 2019, the year before the pandemic hit us, there were 2.8 million deaths in the US.

3) Thus, there were 500,000 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, contrary to the misinformation spewed by Lynch. The death rate increased by 15.9% in the span of just one year.

4) Covid-19 either caused or was a contributing factor in 375,000 deaths in the US during 2020.

5) Following heart disease and cancer, Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in the US in 2020.

Lynch is a huckster, but is no medical expert. He is hawking merchandise and selling memberships, but is no patriot.

Anonymous said...

Bernie - I think you and 10:42 are on the same page.

Bottom line, regardless of what was listed as the cause of death there was a statistically significant increase over prior year trends.

Unless those 500,000 additional deaths are attributed to car accidents, gun violence, drowning, auto erotic asphyxiation or some other drastic unnatural end, its very likely that COVID was at least a mitigating factor in a great majority no matter what the medical examiner/mortuary listed as the final cause.

Anonymous said...

Masks and lockdowns had the greatest effect for our state and we need to acknowledge our heroes and Governor Wolf. In addition, all citizens should be vaccinated or they cannot enjoy the freedoms of going to the restaurants, concerts and work.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Comrade Stalin.

Anonymous said...

Ah Comrade 1:33

The closest thing to Putin and Stalin is the wonderful world of Trump. who has publicly stated that he envies Putin, Kim Jung, and Maduro. He tried to create the fiefedumb of trump. And although many think it was great it was only a let me do as I want and you do as I tell you scenario.


If I am not mistaken there were interviews on record that Trump also said Stalin was a great man.

Anonymous said...

I was just watching the beginning of the movie battle of the bulge and the NAZI's were callin each other Comrade!