I often read stories telling me that President Donald Trump's approval ratings are tanking, especially when it comes his bizarre approach to tariffs. But he's a rock star compared to Democrats. A recent WSJ Poll reveals that only about a third of registered voters have a favorable view of what was once considered the champion of blue-collar voters. On almost every issue, excepting healthcare and vaccines, Republicans and Trump are more trusted.
The polling data appears to be backed up by Pennsylvania's voter registration statistics. According to PoliticsPA, the number of registered Democrats has declined statewide since October. They have lost nearly 4.2% of their registered voters.
Is this a cause for celebration among Republicans? No. They've lost 1.15% of their voters.
The beneficiary of this decline in party registration has been independents. They've grown by 1.15%.
Northampton and Lehigh Counties still have a Democratic edge, but it's wearing thin in NorCo, where the lead is just 3.8%. In Lehigh County, it is 7.9%. In Carbon County, Republicans have a 21.3% lead.
One of the nicest gestures during President Trump's SOTU on Tuesday night was when he honored a 13-year-old boy who survived a battle with brain cancer. He always wanted to be in law enforcement and got his wish when he was made an honorary Secret Service agent, complete with credentials. Even I smiled when I watched this, and I also liked when Trump announced that another young man, a high school athlete who lost his deputy sheriff father when he was just a boy, had been accepted at West Point.
Yesterday, I received a large number of comments from readers who were angry that Democrats sat on their hands when the 13-year-old was appointed to the Secret Service as an honorary agent. I did not notice this at the time and went back to check the video.
Unfortunately, the accusation is true, at least of a large number of Democrats. One Congressman refused to stand because "Trump [is] ripping cancer research to shreds in order to give billionaire tax cuts, firing doctors and nurses who are caring for kids with cancer right now in order for them to take their salaries and put them in their own pockets.”
Let's assume this is true. The young man is in no way responsible for any of these mistakes.
After Tuesday's rather convincing Democratic defeat on nearly all levels, it's time for my party to look within at where it's gone wrong. I believe it started with Bill Clinton. No, this has nothing to do with his sexual indiscretions. It has everything to do with international trade. This might seem like a dry topic until you realize that our policies eliminated millions of good jobs.
NAFTA was actually first proposed by Ronald Reagan. American oligarchs loved it. But there was no way that Reagan or George Bush could persuade Democrats to go along. Then came Bill Clinton, the charismatic Arkansas Governor who would excel at taking Republican ideas and running with them.
In the 1992 Presidential race, Clinton said he'd support NAFTA. under which American companies would be able to move to Mexico and use cheap labor to pay for what it had been making here. That brought Ross Perot into the fray. He was very much like Trump, but without the deep character flaws. He was a plain-spoken billionaire who once hired a commando team to rescue two of his employees taken hostage by Iran after US government efforts to free them failed.
Perot, like most of the American public and Democrats in Congress, was strongly opposed to NAFTA. At a Presidential debate, he said "[i]t's pretty simple: If you're paying $12, $13, $14 an hour for factory workers and you can move your factory South of the border, pay a dollar an hour for labor, ... have no health care—that's the most expensive single element in making a car— have no environmental controls, no pollution controls and no retirement, and you don't care about anything but making money, there will be a giant sucking sound going south. ... when [Mexico's] jobs come up from a dollar an hour to six dollars an hour, and ours go down to six dollars an hour, and then it's leveled again. But in the meantime, you've wrecked the country with these kinds of deals."
Perot lost the race, but garnered 19% of the vote, including mine. It was the most votes an independent candidate for President, aside from Teddy Roosevelt, ever received
Clinton was able to shepherd NAFTA through Congress, persuading just enough Democrats to go along. He had the help of a mainstream media that thought it would produce jobs.
That giant sucking sound predicted by Perot became reality. Some economists argue that overall, the American economy benefitted. But not those who worked in jobs that were sent to Mexico. Counties that depended on industry affected by NAFTA saw 600,000 jobs go away over two decades. Those counties, once blue, are now red.
"The passage of NAFTA — along with other Clinton-era measures like the repeal of Glass-Steagall, a Depression-era law that regulated banks, and the granting of permanent most-favored-nation status for China, which allowed China to enter the World Trade Organization and ultimately cost the United States nearly four million jobs — signaled the Democratic Party’s move away from its working-class, New Deal roots. This decoupling was worsened by the damage to unions from NAFTA. In 1996, Kate Bronfenbrenner, the director of labor education research at Cornell University, conducted a study for the North American Commission for Labor Cooperation, which found that after the passage of NAFTA, nearly 50 percent of unionization drives were met with threats to relocate abroad, and that the rate at which factories shut down after a union was successfully certified tripled."
Democratic leaders were perfectly willing to abandon the very people who were loyal to them for decades. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer bragged, "For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia,”
Basically, Democratic leaders have forgotten who got them where they are. Republicans, and Donald Trump in particular, have stepped in to support them on the campaign trail. But once ensconced in office, they listen to corporate lobbyists. Unfortunately, so do Democrats.
You can argue that Dems are too woke or weak or whatever. To me, it's important to stand up for the voiceless and ostracized minorities. That even includes people whose sexual orientation sometimes baffles me. And we are certainly far from weak. We are not the ones running from Ukraine and who want to bury our heads in the sand. But our primary focus should always be our working and middle class. We need to get them back and that starts with listening to them.
That's what Charles McElwee, founding editor of Real Clear Pennsylvania, has argued in a recent roundtable. ""Places like Southwestern PA, Westmoreland County, was Democratic now it is Republican. Luzerne County is just about 2,000 away from being a Republican-majority county in Northeastern PA. It's the parties that have changed, not so much the voters."
Based on comments I hear from fellow seniors and bus passengers, I think things are trending that way. These are people who I would expect to vote Democratic, but they are disenchanted by the party that actually tries to help them.
(Blogger's Note: I am under the knife today, so if you don't see your comment immediately, it/s because I'm a bit more groggy than usual.)
Although I made it through last night's three-hour debate among 12 Democrats who want to be President, I learned very little. The questions were really bad, especially from The New York Times. The worst was the last one, posed by Anderson Cooper, asking candidates to say something nice about someone after they had just spent three hours tearing everyone apart.
The clear winner was Elizabeth Warren, who is able to present her extreme views in a likable and down-to-earth manner, despite relentless attacks. She also got to do the most talking. I'd give props to Bernie Sanders as well, who looked pretty sharp for a guy who just had a heart attack. He was very gracious to his fellow candidates and thanked them, I think sincerely, for their concern. Joe Biden did very well talking about foreign policy, and was able to step back while the arrows were aimed at Warren. But he has to stop patting himself on the back so much. Also, his son did a much better job explaining his poor judgment in trading off his father's name.
The rest had their moments, but the format is just terrible.
Joe Biden was assailed 27 times during Wednesday night's debate among 10 Presidential contenders. This time, instead of looking like a deer frozen in the headlights, he responded effectively to attempts to distort his moderate views on issues like health care and immigration. Although he delivered few zingers, and sometimes fumbled what he was saying, he held his own and occasionally threw detractors like Cory Booker and Kamala Harris on the defensive. I actually consider him the winner of both nights of debates.
On Tuesday, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren spoke passionately in favor of things like Medicare for All, free college and the Green New Deal. But when people promise things that sound too good to be true, they usually are. Fairy tales are nice to read, but pragmatism is what works. Biden's centrist views are more appealing to me.
As good as Kamala Harris was in her first debate, that's how bad she looked last night. Her attempted attacks on Biden failed, and the former prosecutor found herself in an unfamiliar role as a defendant when combat veteran Tulsi Gabbard lit into her.
Gabbard, who looked very good in the first debate, was even better last night. While most of her barbs were aimed at Donald Trump, her takedown of Harris's role as California's AG was epic.
As Harris squirmed and shook her head, Gabbard eviscerated her as someone who jailed people for marijuana possession, but then laughed when asked if she ever used it.
"[S]he blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row until the courts forced her to do so. She kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of California. And she fought to keep cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way."
"The bottom line is, when you were in a position to make a difference and an impact in these people's lives, you did not. And worse yet, in the case of those who are on death row, innocent people, you actually blocked evidence from being revealed that would have freed them until you were forced to do so. There's no excuse for that."
This unemotional and fact-based style was apparent in her limited opportunities to speak.
Harris has been touted as Biden's VP candidate, but Gabbard would be better.
I missed the first hour of last night's debate among 10 Democratic Presidential contenders. I will catch that first hour today and tell you what I think of both debates tomorrow. From the hour I did see, I was very impressed. The moderators were much better, and so were most of the candidates. A passionate Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders pitted their views against John Delaney, who contrasted "real solutions" with "impossible promises."
Delaney, who said the wealthy should pay more and is worth $65 million himself, pointed out that raising the capital gains tax makes mores sense than Warren's wealth tax.
Wednesday night, in the first of two debates among Democrats vying for the presidency, I was deeply disappointed by their pandering and lack of inspiration. Last night, I was disappointed in the inability by moderators to control a second crop of candidates. They talked over and interrupted each other incessantly during the first hour. In the second hour, none of them could answer questions within the allotted time. All moderators had to do is cute the mikes, but they allowed it to continue. So I would call them the biggest losers.
Kamala Harris totally destroyed Joe Biden in a tense exchange concerning busing. She told him she does not consider him a racist, but then slammed him for not only working with segregationist, but working with them to prevent school busing. beating back tears, she told him his actions were "hurtful" to her.
"There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day, and that little girl was me,” she said.
Instead of apologizing and saying that his views had changed, he still supported the argument that local government should make these decisions.
At that moment, he was toast.
As he argued school busing should be a local matter, Harris nailed him on the need for the federal government to step in on race issues. "That's where the federal government must step in. That's why we have the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act, that's why we need to poss the Equality Act and the ERA. There are moments in history where states fail to preserve the civil rights of others."
This hurt.
Harris was also the person to say something about the constant interruptions, most of which were coming from Kirsten Gillebrand.
"America does not want to witness a food fight," said Harris. "They want to know how we're going to put food on their table."
Harris also got a good shot at Trump over his views on climate change, saying he "embraces science fiction over science fact."
Finally, she called Donald Trump thegraeatest national security threat to tthe United States.
Bernie Sanders has promised to raise taxes on the middle class to help pay for free everything. Even though he called Trump a "phony," "pathological liar," and "racist," I doubt people will be inclined to vote for someone who promises to raise their taxes.
Without question, Harris won this debate, and rather impressively.
Ancient China was once ruled by emperors who would establish dynasties lasting hundreds of years. Around 200 AD, the Han dynasty came crashing down after 500 years. A corrupt group of bureaucrats called the Ten Eunuchs controlled everything, including the emperor. They were the swamp. A brutal general named Dong Zhuo vowed to drain the swamp, and he did. But he was a monster who raped, looted and killed innocent people with impunity. Heroes were needed, and they came My impression of 10 Democratic hopefuls who debated last night is that the Ten Eunuchs want to replace America's Dong Zhuo.
There were too many with too little time to provide meaningful answers. Three of them, and even a moderator, occasionally pandered in Spanish. Bill DeBlasio bragged about his black son. They all claimed to support the working man, but most are the very elitists they condemn. Eunuchs. Cory Booker must have mentioned 1,000 times that he lives in a low-income minority neighborhood, prompting me to conclude he moved there just so he could brag about it. I was hoping Elizabeth Warren would impress. She failed. She blames corporations for everything, which is both short-sighted and wrong. Beto O'Rourke is a phony. Amy Klobuchar condescended when she spoke, with a smirk. Some people liked Julian Castro, but I thought he was just another eunuch. The candidate with the most appeal, at least to me, was Tulsi Gabbard.
Mark Salvas, 47, a Marine and Gulf War veteran, was hired as the Allegheny County Democratic Party Executive Director in September. But he's been forced out as a result of a Facebook posts from him and his wife. Yes, he's been held accountable for his wife's posts.
The Facebook post found to be so offensive is this: "I Stand For The Flag, I Kneel At The Cross."
“I’m not ashamed of my patriotism, not one bit. I fought for this country. I think I have a right to have a voice and be patriotic,” Salvas told CBS.
He has no problem with NFL players who want to take a knee, saying "That’s part of what the flag stands for. It gives them the right to do that.”
His wife asked for donations to help a white Pittsburgh police officer who has been charged in the shooting death of a black teenager. He's been held responsible for her actions because the New Democrats all know women can't think for themselves. They just pretend they can.
Democratic party officials are very upset and have a zero tolerance policy for Executive Directors who are religious and patriotic.
To make matters worse, Salvas is a white male. In 20 years, he'll be an old white male.
At one time, I thought there were three Democratic parties in Bethlehem. Bob Donchez and John Morganelli, who started out as errand boys for the party and former Congressman Fred B. Rooney, are now the old guard. They are still the biggest group of Bethlehem Democrats, which are virtually indistinguishable from Bethlehem Republicans. But there are numerous other factions. Club Callahan, whose leader at this point appears to be Willie Reynolds, is a bit to the left of the old guard. As you go more and more left, you'll see other pockets that include LV4All, South Side Democrats and, of course, the Lehigh U Birkenstocks. Some people consider themselves member of all these groups, like Becky Wamsley. It's a good thing, too, because she has chaired the City Dems since June.
Becky told me she first first got interested in politics a few years ago. I believe Trump's ascendancy may have sparked her. She told me that Bethlehem has a Democratic majority, but would like to see the precincts delivering more votes than in the past. She is more interested in seeing a unified Democratic vote than in siding with any of the factions.
She had opposition when she ran for party chair. But she told me she wants to move forward and to cause no rifts within her party. he goal is to increase Dem turnout in Bethlehem., and I hope she succeeds.
I can still remember when there was virtually no difference between a Democrat and a Republican.Republicans tended to be a bit more pro-business while Dems tended to be a bit more pro-union. But that's changed. The GOP's shift to the right began a few years ago with the emergence of the tea party Now it appears that the Democratic party is taking a hard left.
Earlier this year, two thirds of the Lehigh Valley Democrats voted for a "progressive" Democrat Sue Wild or Greg Edwards over blue dog John Morganelli. And in NYC, Democrats have just elected a 28 year-old Democratic Socialist Latina over a powerful, ten-term Congressman who himself is quite progressive.
Despite a Hail Mary pass to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, seeking to invoke that tribunal's "King's Bench" powers, it appears likely that embattled AG Kathleen Kane will finally face the music on Monday. That's when her perjury trial is expected to begin. It will be the second time this Summer that a high ranking Democrat faces trial. For Chaka Fattah, it was political corruption. For Kane, it is lying to a Grand Jury.
Though Trump's campaign has finally imploded, these little incidents are bound to hurt Democrats running for state office.
In his first reaction to the slaughter in Orlando, conservative Scott Armstrong expressed his sympathy for the victims. But since then there have been those who demand gun control or who are intent upon blaming Islamic radicals. My own view is that we need to pay closer attention to mentally unstable people. Below is Scott's latest essay, in which he contends that democrats have some sort of devious plot to unite the gay and Muslim community against everyone else. I completely disagree with Scott, which necessarily assumes that Islam or gun control advocates are chumps. But I'll run his essay because i believe in a diversity of views and i have no lock on the truth. .
What we are witnessing in the Democratic/Media/Gay Right’s response to the Orlando Terror attack is them pointing the finger of blame at “the majority” for the horrific actions of an Islamic extremist. This is just the latest example of the Democratic Party's long running strategy of gaining and holding electoral power by uniting minority populations against the majority.
This approach is reminiscent of the tactics deployed by European powers in their efforts to colonize the middle east and Africa. They empowered and united the minority populations against the majority population. Once in power the minority populations had no choice but to do the bidding of their colonial masters for if they ever lost power they would be destroyed by the vengeful majority.
Look at Syria today, it is a relic of that system. Assad is the leader of the controlling minority populations, Shiite, Alawis, Druzes, Christians..., against the majority Sunni population. There is no way to surrender without a bloodbath of reprisal. That's why they will fight to the death.
In America the Democratic Party has successfully employed this same strategy. They have united many minority populations on the fact that they are minorities. That is all they have in common, but the Democrats use victimization to unite them against the majority who they portray as "oppressors". This is exactly where America is today and why one minority, “Gays”, will never blame another minority, “Muslims” for anything, even this horrific shooting. Instead everything must be the fault of the majority. Hence the Democrats' answer to a radical Muslim shooting people because they are Gay is gun control. And who is blocking “sensible” gun control? Why it’s the usual suspects, the majority; 2nd amendment supporters/NRA members /The Republican Party/Rural America/ the suburbs.
While this strategy has proven its worth throughout history, it always results in a country divided against itself; the population sorted along base categories such as tribal affiliations, or religion. In our case it is race, gender, religion, sexual preference...How quickly the media and the rest of us have forgotten the term "post-racial". In fact it is now a bad word because certain parties find racial distinctions too valuable to put aside. Now 50 people are dead and another 50 are wounded simply because they were Gay. The Democrats and their collaborators are seeing to it that the blame will not rest just on the shooter but their political opposition as well. It is sad to see Gay leaders acting as mere apparatchiks to such a cynical and self serving political ploy.
I spoke to Mike Fleck yesterday. Actually, he called me. He told me he just got back from vacation, played no role in the vicious attacks aimed at Bar Johnston in the Dem chair race and called them completely unnecessary because Walt Felton already had the votes he needed to get elected.
Let me add that Felton was properly nominated by George Speros Maniatty. He was a duly elected committeeman. Though he finished second in his ward, the posts in Lehigh County go to the top two vote getters, male or female. They dropped the boy girl thing.
Finally, there is some question whether Walt Felton can serve as Chair and continue to be a Deputy. He is a union employee, but his contract is silent on political activity, so he would be bound by the provisions in place for what is called a "career service" employee.
Section 809 of the Home Rule Charter is the pertinent provision.
In the Pa. Code, it bans county workers from acting as "the county chairman or county leader of a political party."
So this seems pretty clear, right?
Wrong.
On the county web page, Section 809 bans county workers from acting as "the County chairman or County leader of a political party."
Note that the word County is capitalized and the use of the definite article. That seems to support the conclusion that the prohibition is limited to Northampton County, especially since Section 1201 later states that "the County" is the "County of Northampton."
I tend to think that the prohibition may be limited to just Northampton County, but that is the Solicitor Vic Scomillio's call.
If you don't think Democrat Bar Johnston is an indefatigable campaign worker, talk to republican State Representative Justin Simmons. Though he's managed to win against weak candidates, the races have been much closer than they should have been because of her. She is a combination campaign consultant, cheerleader and has a deadly ground game. If you want to run for office, and have very little money to spend, you want her in your camp. But Lehigh County Democrats don't. She just might be too good. She was defeated last night in a race against affable Walt Felton, an 18' tall Northampton County Deputy Sheriff who also is running for state senate.
Here's what happened. Jude Denis, who likes to make a few bucks by acting as a political consultant for local Democrats, got up and nominated another paid political consultant whose name escapes me at the moment. She, in turn, nominated Jude. They both declined the nominations in favor of Walt, but not before completely trashing Bar as divisive, too willing to work with Republicans, etc.
What really bothered them, and Mike Fleck, is that Bar is a true believer. Instead of charging people like Susan Wild and Joyce Moore money that they can't pay, she organizes volunteers and real grass roots efforts.
Whether it's Democrats or Republicans, Lehigh or Northampton County, I don't think county parties have much to do with getting anyone elected. At one time, when there were all kinds of patronage jobs to hand out like candy, local parties may have made a difference. But these days, they are a relic of times past. No serious candidate relies on his party, and builds his own organization if he wants to get elected. Though the people on the inside of a local party are really little more than a sewing circle, they think they are Kingmakers. I've told you about the wars going on in Northampton County, where the Ronnie DelWackos want to take over the local GOP. Or in Lehigh County, where Wayne Woodman thought he ruled. The latest rumbles are among Northampton County Dems. Some inside this little clique have managed to delude themselves into thinking that party boss Walt Garvin lost the most recent county elections, and not the candidates who actually ran. So they want to dump him, and they're intent on electing the King of the Easton Democrats, Matt Munsey.
If it's Walt Garvin's fault that Democrats failed to turn out in the county, then it's Matt Musey's fault that Democrats failed to turn out in Easton. But Munsey wants the top spot, and some of Garvin's supporters have abandoned ship.
Munsey is originally from Virginia and came here to work the Obama campaign. Then he just stayed. He does not represent the typical Northampton County Democrat, but is an Obamaphile who is pushing the left side of the Democratic party.
And he's a schemer. He denies this, but some are convinced that he persuaded Joe Capozzolo to run for state senate, knowing that this would guarantee Mark Aurand's victory. You see, Aurand got involved in politics because of Obama, too.
Ever talk to him on the phone? I have, and there are ten second pauses before he answers any question. You can actually hear the wheels spinning.
Yond Munsey has lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous.
In his effort to remodel the Northampton County Democratic party in the image of Obama, he has actually taken it upon himself to call Democratic committee candidates and instruct them not to run, even in races where they are unopposed.
We'll have no democracy here.
Don't believe me. Maybe you'll believe the Wilson Borough police (see report here). A Democratic committee candidate was runningunopposed,, and Munsey was trying to talk her out of it. He called her repeatedly, after she told him to stop. Then he came without invitation to her home ... on a Sunday night ... at 9 pm. He would later tell police he was merely inviting this woman to different events, but that's not the way she remembers it.
So the Dems have one ego trip running against another. Name your poison.
Richard Wilkins, a blogger who also works on Democratic campaigns from time to time, is seeking a spot on the Democratic State Committee. Other state committee candidates from Northampton County include Adrian Shanker, Leslie M Altieri, Alexander Bryan Altieri, April Niver, Sandra O'Brien-Werner and Ladd Siftar.
James Spang, a convicted sex offender with a dubious background, is running for the Democratic State Committee in Lehigh County. After a groping incident that started at the Sands casino and continued during a ride home, Spang entered a plea to misdemeanor harassment. he was also accused, but acquitted, of a similar groping incident in 1993.
Other candidates include Ed Pawlowski, Celeste Dee, Fran Eddings, Veronica Clemons, Walter Felton, Daniel Shackleford, April Riddick, Jackson Eaton, George Maniatty, Jr, Elizabeth Marcon and Kevin T Deely Jr.
Though Northampton County has 33,000 more Democrats than Republicans, it now has a Republican Executive, a Republican County Council and even a Republican judiciary. You'll have this when you become a bedroom community for new jersey and New York commuters. Republicans swept the at-large Council seats this year and four years ago. Despite a Democratic edge, some politicos expect Republicans to remain in control of Northampton County for years to come. That's because, while commuters may vote in presidential and Congressional contests, they simply do not come out in off year elections.
Easton and Bethlehem are Democratic strongholds, but their Mayoral and City Council races are almost always over in the primary. Thus, Democrats do not come out in the Fall, when contested County seats remain to be decided.
Democrats may even start losing District seats. Scott Parsons and Lamont McClure are in Republican territory. Bob Werner has to hope for a contested mayoral race in Easton. Ken Kraft should be the safest in Bethlehem, but his victory edge two years ago was much closer than registration data suggests.
