Popular belief is that the advent of MIBs has increased elections turnout. Studies at Stanford and the National Academy of Sciences, however, disagree. They conclude that actual turnout is about the same one could expect with an in-person election. Their conclusion is certainly supported by Northampton County's measly 20.87% turnout in this year's primary. Despite all the work that has gone into MIBs and drop boxes to make voting more convenient, the number of people voting has only marginally increased. While actual turnout is apparently unaffected by MIBs, there certainly has been a change in the way voters exercise their franchise. Democrats prefer to vote by mail, while Republicans prefer voting in person. In the 2020 presidential, 53,481 of 74,125 MIBs went to Joe Biden (72%). If this trend holds, Lamont McClure will be re-elected Executive.
Northampton County's Election Day turnout in its 2017 municipal election was 23%, or 46,526 voters. This was prior to the advent of no-excuse mail-in ballots (MIBs), which only started in 2020. In the Exec race, Lamont McClure defeated incumbent John Brown with 22,520 votes, or 48% of the total turnout.
Turnout in 2017's general election was marked by the fissures in this nation caused by a divisive President who chose to tear people apart instead of bring them together. This divide has only deepened. So I expect to see at least a 23% turnout on November. As of October 18, there are 219,258 registered voters in Northampton County. This means an election day turnout of 50,429 voters. There will be voters who cast no ballot in the Exec race. Many Republicans and Independents recognize challenger Steve Lynch as a fringe candidate, but are unwilling to vote for McClure. So just like in 2017, McClure will win if he can garner just 48% of the 50,429 expected voters, or 24,205 votes.
This is where MIBs come into play. In Northampton County, 27,125 have been mailed. As of this morning, 8,663 (32%) have been returned. In Northampton County's 2020 Presidential, 88,7% of requested MIBs were returned. If history repeats itself, that means that 23,897 ballots will be returned. If 72% of these MIBs go for Lamont McClure, that means he will have 16,727 votes from MIBs alone.
He still would need 8,000 votes, but should get those easily from in-person votes. In the 2020 Presidential, Biden captured 30,753 in-person votes on election day, which translates to 17.87% of the 172,065 people who voted. If McClure captures 17.87% from in-person votes, that gives him 9,011 votes.
The math favors McClure. I believe my estimates are conservative. I believe his margin of victory will be higher because many Republicans will just refuse to vote in the Exec race.
36 comments:
Too bad Lynch would be a better leader than that politician.
Everyone knows McClure is shoe-in. His massive warchest and his in crowd status assures him a win. Handing out free money all over the county helps a lot. Not to mention his luck at drawing a maniac as his opponent. The real question is what about the county council. With the spotlight always on McClure what are the odd's he will end up with a republican council? He may not have the easy go of it he has had if that happens.
Are there any common sense people running in the county? And don't say Zirinski or Brown, they are both awful.
Too bad for the people of Northampton --wrong party-this party is killing America
Perhaps. Although, the Peg Ferraros and other soft RINOs you hear from are not necessarily representative of R voters. I can't stand Lynch. I can't stand McClure more. It's an awful but easy choice. I know I'm not alone, per the Rs I know. I'm a mail in voter. I guess we'll see. Voters have already lost again.
The only people voting for Lynch are the woefully uninformed voter, those who have fully bought into conspiracy theories and frequently buy flags with other men's names on them.
My prediction is, anyone not registered as a Democrat will be most motivated to participate. Let’s face it, although this is a local election, there will still be an urge to reverse course from the current path our politicians have us on. Even changes at the lowest levels will help eventually. Among other things, wasteful government spending, increasing taxes, excessive mandates, are huge in the minds of all families.
Out of curiosity, why do you feel less Republicans will be voting? Because it is an non-Presidential Election? I would think since there are many School Board races and local Boro/Township spots, the Reps would be out in droves to claim those seats held by Dems. More so out of spite. Regardless, great statistical analysis!
Which president chose to tear people apart? I contend it started with Obama and is going on strong today. I know this is about voting but you did chose to include the comment regarding tearing people apart. And I hope everyone is surprised with voter turnout
"Out of curiosity, why do you feel less Republicans will be voting?"
I did not say fewer Rs will be voting. What I said is that fewer Rs will vote in the Exec race bc Lynch is a fringe candidate.
You're right this is a local election. But if you want to reverse McClure's course, I guess you actually want wasteful spending, increased taxes and excessive mandates. Under his watch we've experienced sound balanced budgets, no tax increases and one mandate: cover your stupid face when you come into the County Courthouse and other County offices. Exercise some due diligence and look into facts before you post stuff that's totally opposite of what you claim.
@8:22: "Which president chose to tear people apart?"
It wasn't a President. It was the Republican party when they Impeached Bill Clinton, IMHO, then they did much further damage by embracing Trump.
10:29 - It’s not about reversing McClure’s course. It’s about giving the current Democrat Party significant losses across the board. McClure, despite his past performance could well get caught up in that reaction. I wouldn’t call a McClure re-election automatic.
5:36 If the party I belong to could just get rid of you nitwits imagine what we could do?
Right now, people like you are the drunk uncle of the party. The center is still here, we just don't go out of our way to say stupid shit. We're busy keeping the wheels on the bus. Now get back to fox news before you forget why your always angry.
Don't forget to get out and vote, our nation needs you. . . . keep it trashy.
The pathetic fascist is already teeing up "fraud" allegations. He is currently on Facebook live demanding access to the voting machines at gracedale.
No matter what the outcome of the NorCo Executive race, it's been entertaining to watch Lynch live rent-free in B.O.'s head for the last year.
That party is killing America do not vote for that party look at what they are doing--please voters look what going on it is socialism at every level of government.
The only way I would vote for Lynch is if his opponent was Tara Zrinski. I would vote for Bugs Bunny before I would vote for her.
Your Math is excellent. I think it conservative, but on point. Nicely Done
Anon 10:55...you skipped a lot of history there in going from the Clinton Impeachment to Trump and (obviously) only blaming one side. The last twenty years of political history has featured the Dems going far to the left extreme which has caused more damage to this country than either the Clinton impeachment or even Trump.
"The only people voting for Lynch are the woefully uninformed voter, those who have fully bought into conspiracy theories and frequently buy flags with other men's names on them."
I guess I'm woefully uninformed. But I know enough not to trust caricatures of voting blocs. Bernie's tried to offset his endless caricature hit pieces with some healthy caution, because he likely knows for most Rs it's not about Lynch or any particular R. It's about McClure and authoritarian policies inflicted on citizens by local and state Democrats. Most people who voted for Trump didn't like him at all. They simply hated his opposition more. That's what most elections are about. This one's tighter than you and this blog are dreaming.
Amen
It seems many who post here are avoiding the ‘elephant in the room.’ That is, the present negative view of Democrat decision making. It’s enormous. We are enduring steeply rising prices for everything we purchase and at the same time the real value of our savings is dropping. Although this, and other troubling conditions we clearly recognize, but sometimes choose not to mention, are largely due to failure at the state and federal level, incumbents all the way down the flow chart will bear responsibility.
Generally speaking, Democrat results have been too harmful to many. Put a simpler way, citizens are pissed with what has transpired over the past year. No incumbents should feel safe.
Getting out to vote is a litmus test of sorts. College Students should have to file in the venue by absentee only. School boards will effect this election a bit . Personally I will not vote for any incumbent in the EASD ,,they pulled a fast one on costs of stadium, rubber stamped it , 18 hrs a year , $20 million , then tax increases,
What are these “authoritarian policies” you speak of? Following CDC guidelines and temporarily wearing a cloth mask to prevent others from getting sick during a world-wide pandemic? Do you mean that public health policy? You’re delusional and your pretentious Lynch-like candidates will never win elections. Eventually, all you Trumpublicans will fade away and die, taking your warped ideologies with you. Have a blessed day.
@7PM - Correlating economic indicators to ANY party, is dumb. Rising prices, supply chain issues, etc., are down stream effects from market events, forces and policies that have been in effect for YEARS.
You can love Republican or Democrat politicians as much as you want, but crediting or blaming the current office holders for what is or isn't in your wallet today is completely meaningless and makes you look like a total rube.
Seems like a lot of Lynch supporters here, much like the Trump 2020 types have been attending too many circle jerks and not getting out enough thinking there is this huge voter desire for executive level dipshittery. You just simply hang out with people who either share your world view or possibly the people just nod along politely while you fart out your Tucker Carlson approved whining points.
Nice try, 8:20 AM, but finances don’t move in a vacuum. Finances are stable . . . until someone manipulates them. Some human interference has a positive effect, other human interference is negative. Government and its operatives are the progenitor and the nurturer. THIS Administration and its appointees are firmly at the controls. It is they who influence market conditions and trends.
All these folks whining about how bad the Dems decision making is, killing the country, etc. etc. How about some real effing examples. My kids can string together a better argument than these generalizations. Did the dingleberry Dems pass that 3.5 trillion boondoggle yet? didn't think so. What has changed since the election, was set in action long before the inauguration.
Think about how you interact with others at your job and within your community. Now think about your political views towards the other party. I do believe these two don't match up very well. We need to work together to get anything done. So get over yourselves and quit fixating on how bad the other side is and try to find some middle ground. Otherwise expect more rage, potholes, and not a fucking thing getting done. It's no way to run the greatest country on earth. We cannot lose sight of all being Americans. Our enemies are watching and taking great pleasure in our discourse.
@9:45 - pretty flaccid rebuttal there home slice. You're more than welcome to associate "THIS administration" for today's economy, and I am sure you were probably chugging the Trump economy boom as well - because "Yay for my political party!" and all that.
Doesn't change the facts that equating current politics with current economic indicators is bumpkin level understanding of finance and economics. I do understand that politicians will put feathers in their hair to credit themselves for good news and tar the opponent for bad news, but I know enough not to swallow that discharge.
If you really think ANY President can magically and single handedly change the economy in less than one year you are incredibly naïve and/or hopelessly partisan.
Face facts people the current administration is screwing up this country in a bad bad way.
I could give you a long list of specifics, 10:26. But, this isn’t the place for that. Besides, today’s radical Democrats tend to just deny, or accuse others as conspiracy theorists. I’m just glad our Blog host allows what he does. For those interested in learning more, I advise avoiding large corporate American television, radio, and print.
Does your Math favor John Brown the tax raising, whacko and his council team?
11:54 - Then where is the place? I've asked for specifics many times on this blog, with no bites. The turds that cannot even articulate their dissatisfaction with the Dems are an embarrassment to the party. You folks are the angry drunk on the barstool that has all the answers. Well, what the hell are they? You've been convinced to hate but don't know why.
Funny that my party didn't even approve a platform in 2020. Instead, just threw up their hands and said whatever Trump wants. Thanks for crawling out from under a rock and enabling the destruction of the Republican Party. But please, by all means, don't vote. I'm sure your aligned with Trump and believe the election fraud BS.
I didn't skip a lot of history there. Instead, I was being very kind by not mentioning that after Clinton's impeachment, Bush stole the election from Gore, ignored credible 9/11 threats (which the aftermath forevermore took away far more freedoms than any other time before or after), entered into an illegal war and his drunk VP shot someone in the face.
But, yeah, Clinton got a blowjob. Amen.
Remember Republicans: Don't vote in November. Rigged elections. Your vote will be changed to Democrat anyway. Stay home. ��������
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