Friday, July 23, 2021

New Covid Surge Predicted

As people get vaccinated, most of us seem to think the pandemic is over. Few of us wear masks indoors, even though at least half of the people there are unvaccinated. We think we're magically immune. It's time to rethink what's going on. A new surge appears to be in the works.  

The Covid-19 Consortium Modeling Hub is made up of  researchers from Johns Hopkins and other major universities. It works in conjunction with the CDC to help track the pandemic. It also acts a bit like the National Weather Service, and creates forecast models. It is predicting a steady rise of both new Covid-19 cases and deaths throughout the summer and fall, peaking in October. This forecast assumes that 70%  of all eligible Americans are vaccinated and that the Delta variant of Covid-19 is 60% more contagious than the original virus. 

In an interview with NPR, epidemiologist Justin Lessler stated that the one thing that will "stop the Delta variant in its tracks" is getting more people vaccinated. 

This surge will be felt most strongly among those who are vaccine hesitant.   

Gracedale is certainly better prepared now than it was when the pandemic first reared its ugly spiked head. Executive Lamont McClure reports that 93% of the residents have been vaccinated and he's shooting for 100%. He adds that inmates at the jail are very receptive to the vaccine. 

Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy is an issue among the staff at the jail and the nursing home. 

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

I never stopped wearing mine. Very few people, if any, at the grocery stores wear them. I have received stares and on 2 different occasions people have sounded like fake coughing as I walked by. I dont know if their names were Karen. Also to note, I am the only one wearing a mask at work. I have received no type of harrassment there.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I wear a mask and my glasses when in common areas indoors unless I am in the company of people I know are vaccinated. Few people are wearing them but I am one of them.

Anonymous said...

Dont worry all the jail employees have to where a mask still. And you just keep believing lamont and chucky the inmates want it. Ask him for the % of inmates that have the shot. Sorry forgot lamont calls them residents. Yeah like anyone in that place said think I'm gonna check in to NCP. Live there for a little .

Anonymous said...

I wear a mask when I'm on a bus, or using Uber. I wear a mask anywhere it is posted that it is required. I am a good sheep. I am also a cauldron of unvaccinated, mRNA negative tested rebel without a cause. Body autonomy is also a basic right according to the constitution.

Anonymous said...

Don’t know if making a comparison between the NWS and CDC is smart because the NWS has bungled many a call. I’m vaccinated and I’m unmasked. If people aren’t vaccinated and not wearing masks, that is a chance I am knowingly taking when in public. I don’t know if the driver coming at me is drunk, texting, etc., and that is a chance I am taking when on the road. I take the precautions (vaccination, seatbelt) I choose.

Anonymous said...

My wife's sister, complained constantly about masks, closures and restrictions on our daily lives during the height of the pandemic. Now she refuses to be vaccinated because she is concerned about the "long term side effects" I let it be known, I will not tolerate her millennial Karen whining when we go back to mask mandates and the likes. She doesn't think she is part of the problem.

Anyone who refuses the vaccine shot deserves no sympathy

Anonymous said...

I just traversed the Atlanta Airport from the rental car return through check in to security, and then across the airport to my gate. During that entire time I passed hundreds of people perhaps well over 1000. During my walk I noticed only 5 people who were not wearing a mask. Of course there were those which had their mask down while drinking or eating but they had masks hanging off an ear or pulled down on their neck or laying on the table near them. The five were at various points in the airport and showed no sign of a mask.

Bernie O'Hare said...

I am rejecting all antvax and anti mask comments unless supported by links to actual facts cans unless the reader is identified. There is too much disinformation being spewed.

Anonymous said...

I missed what misinformation Joe Biden is now spreading.
Karen? Saquanna is just as bad.

Anonymous said...

If we're vaccinated, we should be ok.

If you feel you need a mask on top of the vaccine, or prefer to stay home, that's your choice.

If you're unvaccinated you're risking the consequences, but presumably you made an informed decision based on your own situation and circumstances (age, co-morbidities, etc.). You're not a danger to others, if those others have chosen to be vaccinated.

I don't see the need to go back to mandatory masking, particularly since most masks are likely doing little to nothing to protect the wearer or to stop the spread of a microscopic virus.

The goal was never to completely eliminate the virus, just prevent our hospitals from being overrun. I know of no hospitals in our area, or even our state where that is currently a problem.

LVCI said...

Thank you Bernie for using the word "disinformation". Many posts are classified as "misinformation" when they are not actually a mistake but rather a deliberate attempt to spread a false narrative. Quite a difference the meaning between those two words.

Anonymous said...

Still no word about the 50 million who had covid. what is their risk?

Anonymous said...

5.25
"Body autonomy is also a basic right according to the constitution."
try
https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-the-supreme-court-rules-on-vaccines-and-public-health
"“upon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.”
"in Zucht v. King, Justice Louis Brandeis and a unanimous court held that Jacobson “settled that it is within the police power of a state to provide for compulsory vaccination” and the case and others “also settled that a state may, consistently with the federal Constitution, delegate to a municipality authority to determine under what conditions health regulations shall become operative.

Bernie O'Hare said...

Most states and the courts give exemptions based on religious beliefs or strong moral objections. So making it mandatory is really no help. The arguments for the vaccine far outweigh those against it for most of us.

Anonymous said...

I could care less if someone doesn't get the vaccine. Thats their risk and stupidity. Just don't have your family whine and cry for help if you get it and are put on life support.

Anonymous said...

All I’m saying is that a year from now, the average IQ for Americans will be a little higher. Future consequences are inevitably shaped by present actions. Or like John Webster’s famous novel once said, “Whether we fall by ambition, blood, or lust, like diamonds we are cut with our own dust.”

Anonymous said...

Wish we had real truth related to effectiveness of of masks..the regular and hand made everyone was using. But no one will ever tell us that. Distancing and hand washing were definitely effective but masks not those made for the size of particles not so sure

Anonymous said...

So I got covid 2x last year even after wearing a mask out in public and taking care to be as sanitary as I could, mild symptoms with the last time in December just losing taste and smell for about 2 weeks. I considered myself lucky to have such mild symptoms. Fast forward to this past Wednesday where I decided to get the J&J vaccine. I am as sick as a dog! Chills, body aches like I have been run over, fever and no energy whatsoever. To me, I now have Covid very badly and it sucks more then anything. Doctor says it is normal you don't have Covid and don't have to quarantine it will go away, I am slowly starting to feel better. Would I get it again...probably not, this sucks especially when you've had the actual real virus and it wasn't shit. I still encourage those to get it if they can put up with what is to follow.

Bernie O'Hare said...

9:36, it is normal to experience some side effects. They are definitely better than being on a ventilator,?fighting fir your life. I know some people who had chills and fever, passing in a few hours. Most people I know experienced some fatigue.

Bernie O'Hare said...

6:34, the masks do offer some limited protection but not to most of the people who were wearing them as chin diapers and simply refused to cover their nose. I saw that all the time. So don’t trash the masks, trash the idiots who refused to wear them properly.

Anonymous said...

That's "couldn't care less."

Anonymous said...

Not trashing masks at all Bernie. I wore them. I had the vaccine. I agree people did not wear correctly and constantly touched them which is an infection control issue. However the size of the virus particles can be small enough to get through masks. That is the point. Over one year in and why aren't we talking about making masks that actually stop the particles. The next pandemic could be worse and the basic protection of a mask has not been addressed. That is not trashing masks as you say. I simply want an effective mask for the particle size

Bernie O'Hare said...

Understood. Masks will not stop aerosol particles but do stop droplets. So they do offer partial protection if worn properly.

Anonymous said...

1:24 am, Its couldn't care less? They steal from America's children's children and are self indulgent gluttonous pigs! Masks it's don't care about masks or no one else except themselves.

Anonymous said...

N95 masks stop particles...get 'em, wear'em indoors where there are numerous people whether you're vaxxed or not. Oh, and GET VAXXED so we can stop this thing from producing more variants!

Anonymous said...

11:48 hit it right on the head. It's about choice and consequences. I'm vaccinated and I am going to act like I am. I wear a mask out of respect if a business or other entity requires it. I do not if not required.

Remember this was always about flattening the curve and keeping our medical facilities from being overwhelmed. I don't see that happening again with the most vulnerable elderly population being vaccinated at high rates. There should be no talk of shutdowns ever again given the availability of the vaccine.

If you don't get the vaccine you're taking a big chance. Not only that, I feel bad for the overworked medical folks that have to treat somebody that could have avoided being hospitalized to begin with if they got vaccinated. It's not that big a deal I spiked a fever for one day. Now I feel free do it!

Bernie O'Hare said...

Many masks advertised as N95 are fake so be careful. They do not block all aerosol particles. Masks do offer limited protection., not just against covid but other viruses as well.,

Anonymous said...

WPVI ABC 6 on Saturday 7/24 reported that the CDC stats of new covid Cases across America. 97% of new cases are those NOT vaccinated. 99% of the current deaths are NOT vaccinated. GET THE DAMN BOOSTERS PEOPLE. In other words, what the CDC and the pharmaceutical companies have stated about the vaccines is true. Stop the fear of this and get on with life. The vaccine works ! A new surge will be those who still believe mask work. If they do work, why are those affected those who are still wearing them as their sole source of protection. Can't fix stupid.